Strategy Round 11: Trades
- Thread starter Connoisseur
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Some of us have no capacity to pay for 5 or 6 600k players at this point.
Tbh, I'm not sure how anyone is actually coming up with that sort of cash at this point.
For me getting Cerra at 400k (if I was able to do it) would allow me to spend 600k elsewhere to get 1*100 player and 1*110 player, whereas I'd never get the 1.2m to get 2*110 players, and spending the 1.0m on 2 500k types would only get me 2*100 players.
I'm hopeful to get a 110 player in Whitfield for 500k though....
Tbh, I'm not sure how anyone is actually coming up with that sort of cash at this point.
For me getting Cerra at 400k (if I was able to do it) would allow me to spend 600k elsewhere to get 1*100 player and 1*110 player, whereas I'd never get the 1.2m to get 2*110 players, and spending the 1.0m on 2 500k types would only get me 2*100 players.
I'm hopeful to get a 110 player in Whitfield for 500k though....
Damn right!
How many trades does it take to raise this mythical million that you mention? One up and one down requires 2 rookies worth 315k@ to get a 500k 'premo'. So 4 trades of players that are worth 315k@, someone will have the numbers but there have been precious few that have got to those heights. There's a few more that have got to 270k and at those prices it would require 3 trades to get the 500k 'premo'. After starting with 9 rookies on field I've still had to chase bargain upgrades. Heeney this week being an example.
How many trades does it take to raise this mythical million that you mention? One up and one down requires 2 rookies worth 315k@ to get a 500k 'premo'. So 4 trades of players that are worth 315k@, someone will have the numbers but there have been precious few that have got to those heights. There's a few more that have got to 270k and at those prices it would require 3 trades to get the 500k 'premo'. After starting with 9 rookies on field I've still had to chase bargain upgrades. Heeney this week being an example.
Warner > Weightman is locked in for me, I really want to take the punt on Madden (for Scott) despite the JS concerns/ his round 13 bye isn't ideal either but it would leave me all cashed up (350K) before the next round. The only other promising downgrade target I can see on the horizon is Reeves for Flynn if Reeves plays well again on the weekend.
Ideally, I want to upgrade throughout the byes - Whitfield/ Touk Miller/ Hall (to finish the fwds)/ Bont/ Neale all appeal but real concerns about generating enough cash to facilitate these upgrades hence the appeal of punting on Madden.
My hope/plan was to come out of the byes with just the F6 spot needing to be upgraded to a premium but happy to wait with Poulter performing well & Weightman looking very good the last 2 weeks.
Ideally, I want to upgrade throughout the byes - Whitfield/ Touk Miller/ Hall (to finish the fwds)/ Bont/ Neale all appeal but real concerns about generating enough cash to facilitate these upgrades hence the appeal of punting on Madden.
My hope/plan was to come out of the byes with just the F6 spot needing to be upgraded to a premium but happy to wait with Poulter performing well & Weightman looking very good the last 2 weeks.
Open to any and all suggestions.
Also keen for feedback on a couple of options I've thought of.
Option 1: Scott and McNeil > Treacy and Steele (via Dusty).
Maintains 'upgrade cadence' also think Steele could go big against North so it's a good week to jump on.
Option 2: Atkins and Scott > Heeney and Weightman (or Treacy, slightly better for bye structure).
Helps my forward line in the first bye and moves on Atkins who looks like a bust. I have no problems with upgrading around him and keeping him until final/luxury upgrade.
Also keen for feedback on a couple of options I've thought of.
Option 1: Scott and McNeil > Treacy and Steele (via Dusty).
Maintains 'upgrade cadence' also think Steele could go big against North so it's a good week to jump on.
Option 2: Atkins and Scott > Heeney and Weightman (or Treacy, slightly better for bye structure).
Helps my forward line in the first bye and moves on Atkins who looks like a bust. I have no problems with upgrading around him and keeping him until final/luxury upgrade.
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No not really, that would only be correct if Buddy getting injured resulted in Heeney scoring 0 which is obviously not the case. If the argument is that Buddy getting injured reduces Heeney from a 90pt player to a 80pt player, than that 50% chance of Buddy getting injured is more like 5% when you're looking at the impact on Heeney's scoring. FYI, I'm not even sure there's an actual correlation between Buddy playing and Heeney scoring better I just couldn't resist a chance to get nerdy 
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No not really, that would only be correct if Buddy getting injured resulted in Heeney scoring 0 which is obviously not the case. If the argument is that Buddy getting injured reduces Heeney from a 90pt player to a 80pt player, than that 50% chance of Buddy getting injured is more like 5% when you're looking at the impact on Heeney's scoring. FYI, I'm not even sure there's an actual correlation between Buddy playing and Heeney scoring better I just couldn't resist a chance to get nerdy
Role - not. huge risk
Heeney gets injured - 50%
Buddy gets injured 50% - Heeney gets better defender and plays deeper
50% x 50% = 25% chance of Heeney working out.
Prefer to look for $500k players that get injured or once off tag that sees their value drop $100k
That's a good option. I'll consider this move for sure. I think I'm having trouble bringing myself to trade Atkins because I hate trading failed midpricers until final upgrade. It does give me an extra playing forward in round 12 however, which is appealing. Weightman looks like he could score within 20ppg of Atkins comfortably in the short term, which would render the trade a success.
I can certainly hold off on trading McNeil, perhaps until his bye.
I can certainly hold off on trading McNeil, perhaps until his bye.
Atkins' 3 rd average is 64 so I 'hope' Weightman can match that. You're pretty balanced for the byes so trading out a rd 12 player isn't such a big deal. I'll be looking at an extra donut in rds 13 and 14 if I trade him so not an option for me but it's hard to know if the last few rounds are his new norm or will he bounce back with a few better scores. Long term though I agree - he's a bust.
You're correct in that there's a 75% chance of at least one injury, assuming that they're each a 50% chance, and independent events.
IIRC Heeney's scoring is not as closely tied to Franklin's playing as I would have expected. I haven't checked that for a while, but it may be worth a look for those who are lineball on picking Heeney.
IIRC Heeney's scoring is not as closely tied to Franklin's playing as I would have expected. I haven't checked that for a while, but it may be worth a look for those who are lineball on picking Heeney.
The SCG thing actually makes sense given the type of player he is. Basically it's a compacted middle of the field so less space for him as the link man and less need. Bigger ovals you need to hit that extra kick but SCG you just go from 50 to 50, especially with Dawson being the kicker often. He's basically an 85+ scorer as a clearance midfielder but when he gets more linkup work he pushes towards the 120+ range because he's a great kick and decision maker and works really hard to space.
You're missing that you avoid their bye by targeting them in round 13 and 14 once they've already missed the game.
Obviously it doesn't make as much sense when you're sacrificing a game this week to do it, effectively adding back a game you could have had them for to get the rookie score for the next two.
Come round 13 though is when it makes sense, you target the r12 bye guys and you get an extra premium score. R14 you target both byes. Even sideways trades can make sense here, especially if dodging a donut in the process.
I'd actually argue that Hayward and Wicks are more important to his role. They're severely limited players but if they're playing well enough in the forward role we don't need Heeney there as much, Wicks brings better pressure and an inform Hayward is enough of a support target. Heeney is a really good forward but I've always felt like he has more scoreboard impact further up the ground, when he gets a full time defender he struggles, especially the likes of Grimes and Ridley types who match up very well with him, but when he can push forward on a midfielder or higher HB type he has a huge advantage in the air and can exploit it. Plus he's a really good I50 kick so he also creates a lot of chances for other forwards on the lead and, finally, he's got that same mismatch in the air up the field so he becomes a defacto CHF target on the wing where he can take big contested marks.
As a full time forward he's super reliant on contested mark + goal plays, it's why his ratio is so exceptional the first 3 weeks of the season and not as good the past two weeks, one is a very tough role that relies heavily on hard stats while the other is a much freer role that highlights his strengths more and draws a lot more ball.
Durability is still wretched but the value is there now.
You're missing that you avoid their bye by targeting them in round 13 and 14 once they've already missed the game.
Obviously it doesn't make as much sense when you're sacrificing a game this week to do it, effectively adding back a game you could have had them for to get the rookie score for the next two.
Come round 13 though is when it makes sense, you target the r12 bye guys and you get an extra premium score. R14 you target both byes. Even sideways trades can make sense here, especially if dodging a donut in the process.
I'd actually argue that Hayward and Wicks are more important to his role. They're severely limited players but if they're playing well enough in the forward role we don't need Heeney there as much, Wicks brings better pressure and an inform Hayward is enough of a support target. Heeney is a really good forward but I've always felt like he has more scoreboard impact further up the ground, when he gets a full time defender he struggles, especially the likes of Grimes and Ridley types who match up very well with him, but when he can push forward on a midfielder or higher HB type he has a huge advantage in the air and can exploit it. Plus he's a really good I50 kick so he also creates a lot of chances for other forwards on the lead and, finally, he's got that same mismatch in the air up the field so he becomes a defacto CHF target on the wing where he can take big contested marks.
As a full time forward he's super reliant on contested mark + goal plays, it's why his ratio is so exceptional the first 3 weeks of the season and not as good the past two weeks, one is a very tough role that relies heavily on hard stats while the other is a much freer role that highlights his strengths more and draws a lot more ball.
Durability is still wretched but the value is there now.
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Not sure you should be treating a Buddy injury as a certain failure to Heeney and having an equal result as Heeney himself getting injured. Heeney was scoring at around 95 at the start of the year when Buddy was barely playing and did the same last year without Buddy in a small sample size. If you're going to put a percentage on it than you need to account for the chance you could be wrong about that, otherwise Heeneys a 100% failure because Buddys guaranteed to miss games. Personally I think Heeneys success has a lot more to do with whether Sydney can maintain their form than Buddy playing or not.
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Heeney always has a good start to the season in last 2-3 years and would be careful extrapolating that myself. Maybe it is because of what @wogitalia posted above. for a player that needs to be managed through the season at training, the first few games when he doesn't have niggles are not always sustainable. Player I love to watch, there is value there, it is just in a few weeks time will you be giving up 20 points to other teams with solid consistent choices.
If low on trades and team value, I can appreciate the interest in Heeney, Cerra type players.
If low on trades and team value, I can appreciate the interest in Heeney, Cerra type players.
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The teams that are batting 6+ deep with uber premiums in their midfield are the teams that will end up with koschitzke @ D6 and Warner @ F6.
There might be a few lucky coaches out there that have avoided injuries and can accommodate that sort of midfield.
But with the poor cash generation with rookies, you do need to find a bargain or 2 to complete your team. Cerra might be one, take out his injury effected game and he's ave 101, 3 games of 120+ from 6 games (without injury effected game)
I see Cerra as a Gaff type, runs all day. Suited to the way the game is played these days. I wouldn't write him off completely.
There might be a few lucky coaches out there that have avoided injuries and can accommodate that sort of midfield.
But with the poor cash generation with rookies, you do need to find a bargain or 2 to complete your team. Cerra might be one, take out his injury effected game and he's ave 101, 3 games of 120+ from 6 games (without injury effected game)
I see Cerra as a Gaff type, runs all day. Suited to the way the game is played these days. I wouldn't write him off completely.
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525k itb with Marshall on the pine already, was going to trade him last week but didn't want to risk Bergman being subbed on and killing his cash so had to shift him instead.
Marshall > Steele
Scott > Ridley
266k
Should be set for 18+ in the first 2 bye rounds before any trades.
Going to cull Flynn next week regardless to set me up with 500k+ bank and 3 trades incase I need them all to avoid a disaster
Marshall > Steele
Scott > Ridley
266k
Should be set for 18+ in the first 2 bye rounds before any trades.
Going to cull Flynn next week regardless to set me up with 500k+ bank and 3 trades incase I need them all to avoid a disaster