Strategy Round 4: Trades

[TommyGobbler]

With stupidly high TOG and all the kick ins on top of his intercept role I don’t see why he can’t go 115-120.

If he ends up with an average of 115 then that means his average from this point will be 111.6.

Keep that in mind when deciding whether a sideways trade is worth it. If Short averages 100, the trade will net you 220 points. Can you make those points up quicker if you prioritise upgrading rookies? Could that trade cost you more points later on if you run out?

 

[Peter56]

Will you all STOP trying to bring in Ridley! You will break him
But seriously do you really believe he is going to keep going at this rate? Agreed the ball is going to be down there a lot this season. I would think that most Essendon fans would agree that we were not expecting to beat St Kilda and if we did certainly not in the canter it turned into.
We play Sydney this week in Sydney and as much as I hope and wish I expect Sydney to be 4-0.

 

[NT.Thunder]

What do you think Ridley's end of season average will be?

Doesn't matter if you don't have him, what matters now is his average from round 4 onwards if you trade him in.

 

[Courtesans]

Wonder if Young to Chapman and Rowe to Impey is worthwhile.

 

[Johnsy44]

Thinking I might go early on Waterman

 

[Blue Bloods]

People considering trading Daniel/Short types to bring in Ridley is madness. Unless it was for an injured premium maybe Cripps/Neale I wouldn't even be considering it. Daniel/Short should be in or close to being top 6 defender. Find another way would be my thoughts.

Agree, Ridley will come back to the pack at some point, it is just the huge scores so far that has coaches scared. Daniel/Short will be around Ridley average at years end.

 

[Deeman1]

Wonder if Young to Chapman and Rowe to Impey is worthwhile.

Given Young is injured, he is not going to be much good, so I think you have no choice but to trade. If you can trade him up then Chapman is probably your best bet. I think Impey has made $75k already and will go up another 54k if he scores 60. Rowe was on 40 ish at half time and did not score in the second half, so unless he can muster another 80+ in the coming weeks, I'm not sure where is cash is going to come from.

Young to Chapman
Rowe to Impey (if he is your only option, I would go for it, especially if Rowe was a starter)

 

[Hasnoshoes]

Surely there are other ways - an underperforming midpricer somewhere else on the field, with some dual positioning moves to allow a def rookie up to Ridley would be a better approach (if possible)

I can't see a way other that trading Daniel or Stewart but would love it if someone can tell me another way.

 

[Blue Bloods]

Traded Neale to Ridley last week, (only trade used so far).

Was going to trade Cripps to Oliver last week, but thought very good chance Oliver could meet de Boer, so held the Cripps trade to have another look at both Cripps and Taranto and trade the worst to Oliver this week. Looking like a trade save for now.

This week got the coin to go worst forward rookie Rowe/Brookman/Bergman to Impy/Walker. But Walker at his price now really needs to become a low end keeper.

 

[McLovin]

High risk option: Clark > Impey, Kosi > Chapman
Low risk option: Sharp/Highmore/Kosi > Chapman

The high risk option leaves me with Chapman at D6 and probably no cover on the bench from Highmore and Sharp. As good as he looks, getting Impey in after a price rise feels a lot like chasing points unless I seriously think he can keep scoring at a high level. At least Geelong, Freo and Hawthorn all play late in the round so I'll know if Clark gets dropped in time to do something about it.

I have a feeling that last years shorter season and extra trades is going to derail a lot of people this year. Seeing talk of trading blokes like Clark (BE 24 vs 70 avg) and Campbell (BE -12 vs 67 avg) to get a bubble rookie in and then pairing this with a sideways premium trade.

Cash gen looks tricky early so using up trades for minimal net gain and so early in the season feels like a recipe for disaster, and sideways rookie trading can be just as disastrous as sideways premium trading!

Using the safe rule of a rookie being maxed when their BE and avg align, the only one who looks ready is Kosi (who looks done for multiple reasons) but the others still have cash to make and only need a spike score to get a nice kick along - and those spike games aren't outside the realms of possibility. Rowe and Cox both have a monster rookie score that is at odds with their previous 2 games, and 3 games is a small sample size!

I'd also consider the relative impact of a donut this season. Unless you've been luckier than most, everyone has had a 22nd (and in some cases, 21st) players score in the 20's. Using trades to avoid a donut is not too impactful if that means you just end up with a disappointing rookie on field on another line.

Every circumstance will be different, for some the trades are no brainers but for others it might be a case of getting the sugar rush of hitting that red T.. but just keep in mind it's a long season that is only 3 rounds in!

In Clark's case, it does seem logical to hold him if you look at it in isolation. Realistically he's barely a pass mark vs similarly priced options who've blown him out of the water. That's fine if you think he's a slow burn, however the problem is that in order to be a slow burn he has to survive long enough to make cash and that looks extremely unlikely the way he's played. If Higgins' injury gets him a reprieve he'll have to show something to get another week in the side and I don't see that happening if he's playing forward like he was most of yesterday's game. Geelong apparently don't value his pace off half back, he's weak and fumbly under pressure and he doesn't get much of the ball. He seems to be one of the few players in the team who's ignored for the short "15m" kick.

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

Ver

I can't see a way other that trading Daniel or Stewart but would love it if someone can tell me another way.
View attachment 28328

Great looking team. Yeah agree that would be the only way. I'd be focussing on moving out Dow and be saving the trade personally. Can always upgrade to Ridley in a couple of weeks once rookies have matured.

 

[Connoisseur]

I can't see a way other that trading Daniel or Stewart but would love it if someone can tell me another way.
View attachment 28328

An option could be:
Out: M Gawn and P Dow
In: J Treacy and J Ridley (via J Clark)
$300,000 remaining
Flynn back to Gawn in a few rounds time via a downgrade.

Or wait another round for Ridley and go Tex to Waterman next round allowing Dow to Ridley (via Clark).

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

Out: M Gawn and P Dow
In: J Treacy and J Ridley (via J Clark)
$300,000 remaining
Flynn back to Gawn in a few rounds time via a downgrade.

Or wait another round for Ridley and go Tex to Waterman next round allowing Dow to Ridley (via Clark).

Better off missing Ridley for a few weeks than Gawn for a few weeks.

 

[Chumpion]

I can't see a way other that trading Daniel or Stewart but would love it if someone can tell me another way.
View attachment 28328

Just my 2 cents, but I think you actually need to steer clear of any sideways trades this week. By my count you have 11 keepers + Walker (jury is out there but if we count him, 12 keepers) but are down to 27 trades - a few for corrections is great but now I think you're committed to seeing the midprice players maxing out before you start upgrading. If you were trading someone like Neale you could make a case for it but trading a likely top 8-10 defender to another top defender feels like a bad mov.

Put it this way, would you be happy starting the season with 12 keepers and 26 trades? Cause if you do another sideways trade you are effectively looking at that.

 

[Game of Sloanes]

Team as it stands with 27 trades left,

Ridley, Laird, Stewart, Daniel, Clark, Kozi (Highmore, Sharp)
Macrae, Neale, Oliver, Merrett, Gulden, Powell, Jordon, Berry (Brockman, Scott, McNeil)
Gawn, Grundy (Flynn)
Dunkley, Martin, Ziebell, Campbell, Warner, Rowe (Jones, Bergman)

Problem is fielding Rowe at F6 and Kozi at D6, need Highmore to be named for a good onfield option
Sharp to Chapman would be ideal but wont know if Chapman is named before Sharp plays
So ideally would have to go Kozi to Chapman on the day. Could roll the dice and go Bergman to Chapman and hope he is also named again.

Concerns regarding Chapman's job security are, Watson (test), Logue not too far away, Round 2 two defenders (Chapman, Wilson) came in for 3 that came out (Hamling, Pearce, Watson). Young missing round 4 should see Chapman hold his spot whilst Watson comes back, but who comes out for Young & Logue in round 5?
Hamling 3-5 weeks
Pearce 5-7 weeks
Hill - No return date confirmed

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

Just my 2 cents, but I think you actually need to steer clear of any sideways trades this week. By my count you have 11 keepers + Walker (jury is out there but if we count him, 12 keepers) but are down to 27 trades - a few for corrections is great but now I think you're committed to seeing the midprice players maxing out before you start upgrading. If you were trading someone like Neale you could make a case for it but trading a likely top 8-10 defender to another top defender feels like a bad mov.

Put it this way, would you be happy starting the season with 12 keepers and 26 trades? Cause if you do another sideways trade you are effectively looking at that.

Agree with the logic on holding the trade, but all of Jiath, Ziebell, Impey and Walker could potentially be keepers. That would make 11-15 keepers, 13 down the middle.

 

[Santoz]

Thinking I might go early on Waterman

We won't roll another team like we did the Saints again I dare say.

I'd be wary of bringing him in early off the back of one game where everything went our way.

Consider how our forwards fared against Port too.

 

[Johnsy44]

Leaning towards Dow and Meek/Hunter for Waterman and Treacy

 

[Chumpion]

Agree with the logic on holding the trade, but all of Jiath, Ziebell, Impey and Walker could potentially be keepers. That would make 11-15 keepers, 13 down the middle.

With 19 rounds to go you're brave banking on those 4 being keepers to justify a luxury sideways trade. Better off holding the trade and then if 2-3 of that group are shaping up as keepers then use the extra trade down the line. Keep in mind that of the four there are two with injury history, one who is young and trying to "break out", and one is who is absolutely red lining his form.

It's like spending money because you're positive you've backed 4 sure things at the races.. better to watch them win and then enjoy the winnings!

 

[Johnsy44]

The issue I have this week is I have the risk of copping a donut due to Flyntereek.

Have really wanted to use some of my 325k to go from Dow to Tex, but am vary wary I will need Grundy ASAP. Tex could go massive the next two weeks with North and Freo... but Grundy also has a very good run coming up.

One option I do have is Dow to Tex, and hold the 2nd and IF needed, Meek to Traecy. Was considering going early on Waterman, but after some comments from @Santoz am now second-guessing if I should. Annoyed after missing Impey, but for Dow, think I either go up to Tex, or down to a rookie