Round 8: Trade Tables (Defenders Special)

[Rowsus]

If you are new to this series of threads, or are having trouble understanding the tables, you should visit the the first thread for an explanation. Here are links to the previous threads, where you might find some table for players you are interested in:

Trade Tables explained

Round 4: Trade Tables

Round 5: trade Tables

Round 6: trade Tables

Round 7: trade Tables


This week I will be concentrating on round 9 and 10 bye Defenders, but if there are other players you want to see, just write in below, and I'll do them if I get time.

 

[Rowsus]

Birchall
Recent history: 14/92.1, 20/94.6, 21/94.0, 21/79.5, 19/81.3
Even though most of us got burnt by Birchall last season, his history suggests he could be a useful D4/5 type. It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect him to have a 93-94 season based on his recent history. If he can manage that, he will score at around 94/game from here, and is underpriced by around 5/game.

Gibson J
Recent history: 21/78.8, 19/78.6, 22/89.5, 11/77.0, 22/79.0
Gibson has a career high of 89.5, and that was in 2011. He's looking attractive because he has 3 100+ scores this season, and a last game 142. To me, it looks like a classic trap situation. It's so easy to get seduced by some good looking early scores, but can we expect them to continue? Last season he had 2 100+ scores for the season, 100 and 104. The season before he had 3 100+ scores for the season, 107, 119 and 129, and in 2011 he had 7 100+ scores for the season, including a 130 and a 133. So his last score was his highest for the last 3.07 seasons. I think that means he has had a good chunk of his good scores for the season already, and we will see a correction. Some might think he has turned some sort of corner, and will post a career best season. I think those sort of things are too hard to predict with 150+ game players, as they just don't happen very often (See A Walker below). You need to think he can post a career best season of around 93, just to be getting what you pay for. He's not for me.

 

[Rowsus]

Burgoyne
Recent history: 20/85.2, 21/82.2, 21/79.9, 15/99.5, 9/80.8
There's no doubt that Burgoyne has been a quality Midfielder in his day, recording a 115.2 season back in 2006 with Port Adelaide. In recent years he has been spending most of his time in Defense, with the occassional on ball rotation. This year he seems to be getting more on ball rotations, which has seen him score 5 100+ scores in the first 7 games, 2 of those 120+. The question becomes, do we think those scores can continue? I have a theory, and it is only a theory, that Burgoyne doesn't cope with a tag too well. I think that is part of the reason why he never got close to replicating his 2006 season (his next best season is 104), and also why he slowly got shifted towards the backline. With Mitchell gone, and Burgoyne in form, I can see Burgoyne getting a lot more of the opposition Coaches attention now. If my theory is right, then we will see his scores start to decrease from here. Will they hold up to a level we'd be happy with from a D4/6? That I'm not confident in, so I will be avoiding him. The main reason is, he is now priced at 98/game and I'm not sure he can return that from here, and I really want to concentrate my trading on players that will outscore (hopefully) their purchase price. Outside of my plans, I can see why some Coaches will take a punt on him. Even if he becomes tag affected, he could potentially return 100/game from here, which of course, is more than acceptable.

Hodge
Recent history: 20/96.7, 8/85.9, 19/106.5, 21/116.5, 19/91.4
There's not a lot that needs to be said about Hodge, you all know him well, and how he scores. He's currently averaging 92 with a red vested 34 and a missed game in there. We can safely assume, I believe, he will score at an average of around 100 in non-affected games, and he is currently priced at 96/game. It comes down to this, how many more missed games and red vests will he have this season? I think he is a chance for a red vest or two late in the season, even without injury, just to "save" him. I think he potentially misses another 2 games, and gets 1 red vest. If we assume he averages 100 from here in non-affected games, his PIT65 scoring from here looks like this:

12.5 x 100 + 2 x 65 Rookie replacement scores = 1,380, => 92/game PIT 65 return.

If you have faith he won't miss more games, or get red vests, he's probably the safest Mitchell replacement.

 

[Rowsus]

Walker A
I was aked earlier in the week, in the "Questions For Rowsus" thread, why I was against Walker this season. here is what I replied:
Nearly everything about Walkers season in 2013 just screamed "spike".
He's a 150+ game player that recorded a 20+ pts/game jump on his career best.
His numbers didn't seem to support his scoring. Just comparing his 2012 and 2013 figures, in 2013 his goals/game dropped 0.8, his CP's dropped 0.7 and his H'balls dropped 0.9 and his kicks went up 5.9, yet all that equated to a 27/game rise in his score. (Before everyone jumps in, I know there is more to score structure than that, but they are the bones of it.). His SC to DT seemed historically too high as well, and made me think it was not sustainable. It just didn't look or feel like 106 season, and the numbers support that feeling to quite some extent. Amongst his scoring last season, he had:
Rnd 1 - 26 possessions, 0 goals, for 137 points
Rnd 6 - 21 possessions, 1 goal, for 141 points
Rnd 10 - 34 possessions, 0 goals, for 150 points
Rnd 11 - 28 possessions, 0 goals, for 140 points
Rnd 23 - 25 possessions, 0 goals, for 123 points
They are all high scores for someone operating on a CP rate of around 25%, and isn't kicking goals. Keep in mind, they are Selwood type scores, where Selwood is operating on a CP rate of 50%, and kicking 2 goals/game in most of those good scores. Yes, scores like that can and obviously do happen, but he seemed to get more than his share last season (even with some of them having a high K:H ratio). You wouldn't want to pay top dollar for him, and rely on a repeat of those "generous" scores to get the return you want on your money.
Given he was obviously priced to that 106, I felt he was never really going to be a good selection this year, value-wise. He is starting to get down to his right price now, but I would want him even just that little bit cheaper before I got him, and I wouldn't be expecting a 100/game return from him.

Murphy R
Recent history: 19/99.1, 21/84.7, 21/89.8, 18/71.1, 13/66.6
Murphy's history would tell us that he is realistically a 88-90 point player, that had a spike last season. He is currently averaging 92 this seaon, and even with the Bulldogs draw getting a little easier after the byes, I still don't fancy him for anything over 95 for the season. More realistically, maybe 90-92. At a 92 season he is just underpriced, at 92 season he is a nice purchase at 7/game underpriced. There are just too many doubts about him bucking a longish history. I will be looking to others I am more confident can out score their buy in price.

 

[Rowsus]

Johnson M
Recent history: 21/86.9, 22/89.4, 22/72.1, 17/78.9, 10/85.7
M Johnson is consistent. He doesn't post too many or high or low scores, and churns out his near 90 average. He's been just outside the the top 8 PIT65 Defenders for the last 2 seasons, and in 2012 actually finished 7th on the Defs aggregate point ladder. Having said all that, he is probably overpriced for what he might produce from here on in. I actually traded him into my team last week, but that was more circumstances than desire, as I missed the lockout to get Adcock. He doesn't miss many games, but I think you can get more bang for your buck with other options.

Shaw H
Recent history: 19/96.9, 18/101.2, 14/100.9, 19/90.2, 18/94.7
I think it was Leigh Mathews I was listening to in Shaw's first or 2nd game for GWS, when he said something along the lines of: "We mustn't expect too much from Shaw in these early games at a new Club. It takes a while to not only find your rhythm, but the rhythm of your new team mates as well. Learning how and what they do under match conditions is not something you can pick up on the practice track". Prophetic words? Heath fumbled a 73 average in his first 2 games, and since has averaged 108 in 4 games. We know he can be 100 player, but we also know he can go missing when things aren't going his way, or just go missing - full stop! He doesn't play 22 games in a season, and he won't again this season. He's priced close to his opening price, and close to what he will probably produce for the season. To my mind that produces 2 problems. He doesn't represent value, and he will probably still miss a game or two, causing his PIT65 score to drop around 5%, making him even less value.

 

[Rowsus]

Hurn
Recent history: 22/87.5, 22/91.4, 22/82.3, 15/84.6, 22/93.4

Hanley
Recent history: 20/95.7, 22/90.7, 22/82.6, 9/61.1, 1/38.0
Just be careful of getting Hanley if your goal is to win your Cash League. RAMP has him scoring poorly in the last 2 games.

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hi Row,

Very interested to see your comments on Burgoyne. I assume that based on his last few seasons you will see his early season scores as a bit of a spike and will fall back to previous years level.

Preseason i didnt even consider him as an option because of the role he was playing. He was playing almost as a back pocket or defensive half back with the odd run through the guts or up forward if something was needed. Now the role he is playing it seems as though he is getting more time in the middle and up forward and being used as more of an offensive weapon rather than a negating player.

Some stats to support his new role:
He is averaging 5 more disposals a game with 1.8 of those being contested.
He is averaging 9.3 contested possessions a game which puts him in the top 3 for this stat for a defender.
He is averaging 4.4 clearances a game which is up 1.8 on his average last year.
His tackles are slightly up and he is averaging 1 goal assist per game up on the 0.6 he averaged last year.

With Clarko rotating as many through the middle and forward as he can, it looks to be having a good impact on Burgoyne.

Of course if you go back to his Port Adelaide days he clearly showed he can average 100+

A slight drop off will most likely be expected but considering these numbers and his current price which is still cheaper than a lot of other defenders, i think he is well worth it.

Love to hear your thoughts.

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Given the many defensive options to trade Mitchell to, this will be a very interesting thread to read.
Thanks Row!

 

[bloke]

I'm hanging out for this! Could be a vital decision come seasons end.

 

[expl0it]

Keen to also see Malceski's numbers.

 

[Erich1036]

Thank you Rowsus! This thread could very well decide who Sam Mitchell will become for a lot of coaches.

 

[nev1]

Excellent work.
Any chance you could include Addcock to this group if you think he belongs.
Cheers

 

[Deeman1]

Great Stuff Rowsus.

Great food for thought, I was initially going to hold Mitchell, unitl he declared out for 8 weeks.

I had my trades planned for the next 3 weeks and unfortunatly Mitchells injury as put a spanner in the works.

I'm still deciding wheter to hold this week and trade after the rd 8 players have had their bye.

It's concerning how Birchall looks to be the most appealing option of the ones tabled above. Concerning because, I wasted at least 4 trades on him last year and he was nearly on the 'Never again list"...

 

[Giblet]

It would be interesting to see a trade table involving H. Taylor III

 

[Rowsus]

Comments added in for Burgoyne and Hodge at post #3 above

 

[quickie]

Great read, I am keen on your Walker assessment. Seems to be going under the radar a bit because he plays for Carlton.

 

[Courtesans]

Thanks Rowsus. Looking to bring in two premium defenders this round for Mitchell and McDonald. For me Johnson and Birchall seem to represent the best value as well as a Rd 9 and 10... spreading the luv a bit.

 

[Bob Loblaw]

Thanks Rowsus. Looking to bring in two premium defenders this round for Mitchell and McDonald. For me Johnson and Birchall seem to represent the best value as well as a Rd 9 and 10... spreading the luv a bit.

Don't dislike the Birchall idea at all, I just feel that he has been playing very well but that hasn't translated into big Supercoach scores so far. I'm not sure if I'm being pessimistic but I can't see him improving significantly on 27 disposals a match, 6 Marks at 80% efficiency? Or do you think that supercoach scores will eventually come his way if he keeps playing like this?

 

[Rowsus]

Malceski
Recent form: 22/90.8, 19/75.5, 12/67.8, 22/96.4, 12/51.5

Adcock
Recent form: 22/91.2, 21/90.1, 20/90.4, 9/68.4, 15/87.3

 

[Rowsus]