Round 8: Trade Tables (Defenders Special)

[DeliciousJedi]

Actually, your team is a good example of one method of attack in completing your team, using the "buy value" creed strongly. First can I just add, in my opinion Burgoyne isn't a "should score over 100-105 option", I'll accept Bartel in that range, and use him in the example below. For this exercise let's ignore bye problems etc, and just look at the players, their prices and expectations. Should you get Taylor or Bartel?

Bartel is priced at $531k which would mean to break even he would need to score at around 105. Coincidently, about what we expect of him.
Taylor is priced at $388k which would mean to break even he would need to score at around 77. It's not unrealistic to expect Harry to return around 90/game.
So the difference is $143k in your bank, and 15 less points in your total. Now here's where it gets tricky.
There's no doubt filling your team this way uses less trades, as you need less dollars to facilitate your upgrades. The $143k can realistically be expected to bring a further 22 to 28 points when used in additional upgrades. There comes a tipping point though, where you have filled your team with players outperforming their price, but underperforming the top 6 to 10 (or 3 to 4 for Rucks) of their respective position. These players can then be further upgraded late in the season, as in theory they too have grown in value, and become easier upgrades. I think the trick is to limit your numbers to say 2 in each of your Def and Fwd line, and possibly 3 in your Midline, BUT most importantly, choose players that realistically have a chance of filling the F5/6, D5/6, M7/8 slot, so if you chose well, you may not need to upgrade them, or if disaster hits, and your trades are tied up fixing injury/suspension problems, you aren't caught short. You may have over-concentrated this thinking in your Fwd's, but I like the general concept of what you have done. There would be Little point in Trading in a Taylor type player if he cost the equivalent of 50/game, and was going to return 70/game. Yes, its value, but it's too far from D6. The subsequent upgrade is still a further step up, and he's no chance of filling D6 in a successful season.
The importance of buying value cannot be over-emphasised.
If you are buying Selwood at $540k, and getting 115/game from him, you have to be at an advantage over someone buying McVeigh at $520k and getting 105/game from him. You have just bought a 10/game advantage for $20k!
Similarly, if you can fill your middle to lower order Prems at $25-$30k less/spot than your opponent for a similar point return you will make 10 upgrades for the price they'll make 9.
It sounds easy, and obvious, but each season I am advising people against things like trading in NRoo at $584k in round 5. You need him to return 117/game to justify it, and it just won't happen! 3 weeks later, NRoo's has dropped $90k, and he has scored at 68.3 in that time!
Here is something I seriously suggest you all stop and consider. When you trade a player in at, or near, their peak price, you are locking, and guaranteeing failure nearly every single time! In most cases the player can't possibly return the points you have paid for, and you are competing against Coaches that are getting more points than they paid for! Put it this way, would you play this game if you were forced buy points at one price, but your opponents got to buy points at a 20% discount? Probably not. So why are you are buying badly priced players, like NRoo in round 5?!

I'd like to point out this was not directed at tracygrim, who to the best of my knowledge never had any interest in NRoo in round 5. It is just a general rant on how important buying value is, with an eye on the fact that you must also try and make sure you have some of the top performers for each position in your team, hopefully without overpaying for them!

This is great Rowsus. Now, to apply it this round, if you expect Hodge to average 100 and Birchall 95, does Birchall's price ($33k cheaper) make him more of a worthwhile acquisition?

 

[Rowsus]

This is great Rowsus. Now, to apply it this round, if you expect Hodge to average 100 and Birchall 95, does Birchall's price ($33k cheaper) make him more of a worthwhile acquisition?

When working out value, you can use a nice round $5,000/point and be close enough, however..... when working out the difference in price/comparative value I bump that up to $6,000/point on the difference alone. This is because you may not get to use all of the difference, and may not use it efficiently. So in the comparison you have given me, assuming neither miss a game:

Hodge = 100/game
Birchall = 95/game + $33,000/$6000 = 100.5/game.

When you add in that Hodge's history implies he is more likely to have a compromised (red vested/missed games) season than Birchall, it just bumps Birchall that little further in front.

 

[Blue Dragons]

Great stuff Row! You are the king of analysing!

Just my two cents on Birchall, he has that knee issue from last year which he said during the preseason it probably wont be 100% its something he has to manage carefully. I think this puts him in the same situation as Hodge where he may be rested or vested during the year. He is averaging 78% TOG this year, which is what he averaged last year too.

On the plus side, as he was coming back from he injury to start the year, his first 5 games resulted in only 76% TOG and the last 2 games he has boosted that up to 84.5%.

 

[baz_machine]

Great work as usual Rowsus.

If you get the time, I think you have forgetten a very important backman that you yourself talked up in the pre season defender article, Corey Enright.

 

[Couch Coach]

Rowsus,

Given the new DPP status of James Kelly (M/D) can you please do the same for him?

CC.

 

[johno686]

Rowsus,

Given the new DPP status of James Kelly (M/D) can you please do the same for him?

CC.

Its not for supercoach just the poor fantasy game.

 

[The MC]

Actually, your team is a good example of one method of attack in completing your team, using the "buy value" creed strongly. First can I just add, in my opinion Burgoyne isn't a "should score over 100-105 option", I'll accept Bartel in that range, and use him in the example below. For this exercise let's ignore bye problems etc, and just look at the players, their prices and expectations. Should you get Taylor or Bartel?...

This needs to be 'Supercoach Bible: Chapter 1-B', right after explaining how the game works.

It took me far too long to understand this mentality, and after what has been a shockingly unlucky start to my year this year, I think I'm trading smarter and better than I ever have in previous years.

The whole concept of 'value' and buying players at a 'priced to score' price is a solid, basic strategy in SC and it's thanks to guys like you, Rowsus, and the others here at SCS everyone can learn and benefit from this sort of stuff. Quality work as usual.

 

[Rowsus]

Great work as usual Rowsus.

If you get the time, I think you have forgetten a very important backman that you yourself talked up in the pre season defender article, Corey Enright.

Thanks baz,
I actually hadn't forgotten Enright. As I said at the start, I was concentrating on round 9 and 10 bye players. This was because I didn't think too many people would be Trading in round 8 bye players this week. I did Bartel and Taylor under requests, and will add Enright for you. Unfortunately, photobucket.com is Down for maintainence right now, so it will have to wait.

Rowsus,

Given the new DPP status of James Kelly (M/D) can you please do the same for him?

CC.

CC,
even though he isn't SC relevant, I will add his table for you when photobucket.com is up again.

 

[quickie]

Thats not what I wanted to read about Walker

I have him as my backup captain this week!

 

[baz_machine]

Apologies Rowsus, I'm thinking about my trades for next week as well!

 

[tracygrims]

There comes a tipping point though, where you have filled your team with players outperforming their price, but underperforming the top 6 to 10 (or 3 to 4 for Rucks) of their respective position. These players can then be further upgraded late in the season, as in theory they too have grown in value, and become easier upgrades. I think the trick is to limit your numbers to say 2 in each of your Def and Fwd line, and possibly 3 in your Midline, BUT most importantly, choose players that realistically have a chance of filling the F5/6, D5/6, M7/8 slot, so if you chose well, you may not need to upgrade them, or if disaster hits, and your trades are tied up fixing injury/suspension problems, you aren't caught short.

Thats exactly right, there is a point where it becomes more beneficial to forget about value and just go for the points. But it's maybe too difficult to actually quantify where this point is - do you measure by number of trades used, rounds elapsed or $away-from-perfect-starting-22?


Just because I said its hard to do, I'm going to give it a go. Since we are already talking about value, I think the best way to find the tipping point will also be value. When you start getting near this value, this is when you can stop investing in value in your starting 22 and only look for value in your non playing players.
The total amount of $ needed for a perfect 22 is approximately the following prior to rd8 (it will vary throughout the season based on player prices):

Backs: 6x500 + 2x125 = 3250
Mids: 1x750 + 2x650 + 2x600 + 3x550 + 2x125 = 5150
Rucks: 2x500 + 2x125 = 1250
Forwards: 1x600 + 5x500 + 2x125 =3350

=$12,900,000

Once the leading teams are at this value - and if they can manage to keep their bench to around $1,000,000, they are going to be very VERY VERY hard to catch assuming injuries do not play a role. (Note that some of the leading teams are already around 12.5 mil - in a best case just one premium away from a perfect 22)

And although its debatable, once your team value gets to this point, I think its probably best to stop thinking about value for your starting 22. This means cutting your value players from perhaps 7-10 on field in Rd3 to zero at this point, keeping in mind you will have 8 bench players which you can still continue to earn coin with. Given the drop in numbers, the $increase/round will likely be around 50% of what you got in Rd3-5, which means upgrades* from this point are a much slower, so those behind you in terms of cash are given a little chance to catch up.


With a perfect 22, who do you continue to upgrade?
Of course the answer is your bench. Covering injuries will be important as trades run dry, but considering the amount of extra injury trades required to upgrade these positions, it might be even a better idea to not upgrade unless forced, or it might be beneficial to just begin by upgrading just two of your bench positions (M9/D7 DPP and R3/F7 DPP). However, all things being equal, there is one more option left to the teams chasing the leader - the emergency loophole...


This is really the confounding factor in what I've concluded above. There's no real information on this, but my educated guess is that the loophole is worth on average 10-20 points per position per round. This would mean having a good B7,M9,R3 and F7 is important if you want to make up ground on the leaders.

So this would make the perfect 30 is around $1,500,000 more expensive than the perfect 22 or a total of $14,400,000.

However considering the relatively low returns of the emergency loophole compared to trades/money invested, it's doubtful that it's worth pursuing over points..