Position SC 2021: Midfielder Discussion

[manyproblems]

I can't see the Rowell pick. What am I missing?
Surely Taranto, despite the DT:SC ratio knock, 50k cheaper, is the better selection.

Rowell is a tough one. He has goat DNA. No one has ever started like that in such a tough competition. The junior numbers are all off the charts, 44 and 2 goals in the u18s GF. His body already holds up against men. When he gets the ball he puts the jets on, and keeps moving immediately while releasing the ball, helping him get to the next contest, has had no problem adjusting to the pace of the game. Explosive like Judd and can kick goals.

The shoulder does complicate things, but he's had an 8 month preseason. He's very likely a lock for me, protected by high ownership. I'd take 105/20 from him for 500k.

 

[Herbie66]

The obvious path is probably towards those who were injured or what not and thus are underpriced. Cripps, Rowell, Cunnington or to the types who've scored better in the past but had role changes that could reverse like Dunkley.

Chasing value is always a risk multiplier because that value only exists because of some underlying risk factor be it durability or role concerns.

Breakouts are generally a better pathway but with only one preseason game they're going to be harder than ever to pick and this, to me at least, is one of those weird years where there just doesn't seem to be many of the forwards or backs who look set to play actual midfield roles. Hately as a back or forward would be real interesting, as a mid he's pretty limited. Preuss as a R/F, same. Caldwell is so unproven and lot of guys to go past to get the level of midfield he probably needs. Not an awful lot of other names even stand out right now.

Yeah I guess it's about trying to get the right balance with your starting team so you are competitive , then hoping the majority of your rookies make enough $$$ to then be able to downgrade/upgrade to full premium ASAP.

Given we are probably aiming for 11-15 keepers to start with , need to find some "value" starting picks and hope they can go at least 85-90 if possible.

Certainly not buying a lot of keepers at $ 500k so pure mathematics comes into it.

Start too many of the Cripps , Cunnington , Rowell , Taranto types and you could end up with multiple M9's from the start.

Can't see any appeal in the Caldwell , Green , Hately , Heppell , Sier price range type personally , might look at Harmes & Milera.

Like most will be hoping Daniher & Ziebell both perform , not sure on Impey.

After using 18 trades (seemingly) on my rucks last season won't be going down that path again with Preuss , but not yet 100% liking Grundy to start.

I guess at the end of the day it will all come down to availability of rookies which will determine our starting sides/structures , reading through the latest Best 22 certainly makes grim reading so hopefully things will improve (people will say it always does)

 

[Ironhawk]

Unsure if i'm allowed to post another site but this seems like what you are after, or atleast more data:

https://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2021/01/27/2020-supercoach-score-breakdown/

Excellent.

A few names that stood out to me that weren't the very top liners were M. Crouch, Zerrett and most surprising to me, everyone's favourite - Rockliff.

 

[pizza safety]

So I am totally confused.

If people aren't picking the higher priced players because their averages are "inflated" from last season then who do you pick and how do you get the likes of Gawn , Grundy , Lloyd , Macrae , Neale , Oliver etc into your team.

Very hard to downgrade-upgrade to afford too many $ 600k players.

The table posted about how it takes rookies to about Round 10 to make that "magical" $ 150k changes everything I have read over the years where you should be downgrading rookies about Round 6-9 makes that even more difficult , that's if you even have all your 7 bench rookies playing enough games in succession to make $$$.

Frowned upon to start too many mid pricers.

Feel like I need to go back to the very beginning and start all over again.

Some players scores are inflated but others saw significant jumps in time on ground % i.e. Neale, Merrett, Gawn, which a lot of other players did not. Lloyd I see as unsustainable because Sydney can't sustain conceding so many behinds and because his score is not just a spike year but completely unsustainable for a half-back. These are the players I see as truly inflated. Cripps on the other hand had the opposite thing happen to him, his time on ground went down.

We know that players at the top were over-scored and players at the bottom under-scored compared to previous seasons, so there's an argument to be made to pick players who are underpriced compared to previous seasons or have at least backed up their price across multiple years. Players like Macrae, JKelly, Fyfe, Cripps and Taranto would be the kind of players who are not overpriced compared to what we know they can produce.

 

[wogitalia]

Unsure if i'm allowed to post another site but this seems like what you are after, or atleast more data:

https://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2021/01/27/2020-supercoach-score-breakdown/

This worked perfect! Exactly what I was after, even in excel. A quick skim but the standouts for me (all positions):

M. Crouch - 128.8
Laird - 117.6 - These two basically went hand in hand with Laird going into the midfield.
Rich - 113.8 - Not sure why he started so slow but the finish was exceptional (carried into finals also)
Walsh - 117.8
Setterfield - 108.8 - It's like he and Cripps switched bodies to end the season.
Crisp - 117
Pendles - 121 - Old man still got it.
Merrett - 127 - I want to pick him but lot of guys to come back into the midfield so expect he goes back to the wing.
Danger - 124 - Preseason probably trumps this but interesting to note none the less.
Stewart - 115
Whitfield - 115.5.
May - 110.7 - Knew he finished well but not this well. Could be a value proposition not that many are seeking it in the backs.
J. Anderson - 118.4 - This one surprised me, Cunnington a huge question.
L. McDonald - 114.8 - Still one of the all time great, where the F did that breakout in the middle of a season come from.
Rockliff - 128.2 - He'll always tempt me, always.
Houston - 110.7 - Him too...
Gray - 112.2 - This surprised me, firstly I never really noticed it and secondly I thought it might be a couple of the kids.
Boak - 126
Wines - 109 - not as massive but with the 114.8 in the middle six he kind of made the jump and I've always thought he could be a premium.
Steele - 140 - Did not even notice he finished this strong... this has not helped my early leaning towards him!
Gaff - 115.8
Bont - 126.2 - I'd probably start him, and hate myself for it, again if it wasn't for Treloar, so expecting him to start big this time.
Libba - 119.8 - Big finish.
Dunkley - 111.2 - Also strong, Macrae at 108 the surprise of the Dogs.
Berry - 107.3 - He's very much on my radar, really rate him as a player.

A lot of these names have popped up but there are a few at least that haven't. Generally those last rounds are fairly indicative of the next season barring teams where the season is over and they experiment or obvious injuries late that enable. Not a lot of that list is in either of those categories, even the Crows guys started to win after those moves.

Yeah I guess it's about trying to get the right balance with your starting team so you are competitive , then hoping the majority of your rookies make enough $$$ to then be able to downgrade/upgrade to full premium ASAP.

Given we are probably aiming for 11-15 keepers to start with , need to find some "value" starting picks and hope they can go at least 85-90 if possible.

Certainly not buying a lot of keepers at $ 500k so pure mathematics comes into it.

Start too many of the Cripps , Cunnington , Rowell , Taranto types and you could end up with multiple M9's from the start.

Can't see any appeal in the Caldwell , Green , Hately , Heppell , Sier price range type personally , might look at Harmes & Milera.

Like most will be hoping Daniher & Ziebell both perform , not sure on Impey.

After using 18 trades (seemingly) on my rucks last season won't be going down that path again with Preuss , but not yet 100% liking Grundy to start.

I guess at the end of the day it will all come down to availability of rookies which will determine our starting sides/structures , reading through the latest Best 22 certainly makes grim reading so hopefully things will improve (people will say it always does)

To be fair you'll generally get many upgrades in the forwards and backs in that price range. Only takes a shutdown role or a being shut down for those guys to tank.

It's a large reason why I'm trying to pick as many midfield (and ruck) starters and guys I think are keepers this year as I can at the cost of forwards and, to a lesser extent, backs. They're just a lot easier to upgrade.

Some players scores are inflated but others saw significant jumps in time on ground % i.e. Neale, Merrett, Gawn, which a lot of other players did not. Lloyd I see as unsustainable because Sydney can't sustain conceding so many behinds and because his score is not just a spike year but completely unsustainable for a half-back. These are the players I see as truly inflated. Cripps on the other hand had the opposite thing happen to him, his time on ground went down.

We know that players at the top were over-scored and players at the bottom under-scored compared to previous seasons, so there's an argument to be made to pick players who are underpriced compared to previous seasons or have at least backed up their price across multiple years. Players like Macrae, JKelly, Fyfe, Cripps and Taranto would be the kind of players who are not overpriced compared to what we know they can produce.

Lloyd's is a bigger shock because he wasn't even very good. He wasn't a strong intercept player, his touches do almost zero damage and he's a poor defender. Realistically Sydney should be a better side this year. Kennedy, Hewett and Heeney were big outs, Franklin while more pipe dream would also be massive but most of the list is very young and should improve. If Hickey can be even bad in the ruck he'll be an improvement on Sinclair who was flat out non-competitive last year. Mills into the midfield would elevate everyone because he's the kind of star you can build around and takes a lot of pressure off Parker and Kennedy as well as the younger guys (oh please happen!).

Only problem with that list is the reason that JKelly, Fyfe and Cripps are on it is their continuous durability problems. Taranto has never been all that close to a premium, though to be fair he has had a DT season which with a golden ticket would have been, be interesting to see what his role ends up, can't help but feel like Hopper has passed him by and that Green will this year also which when combined with Kelly and Coniglio is a long way back in the pecking order. Throw in Whitfield, Greene, Ward (who being out helped him in the first place), De Boer and perhaps Perryman and that's a lot of competitors. That GWS team may have as many questions as the Dogs! Then we have Macrae who is part of those Dogs!

Such an odd season!

 

[pizza safety]

Rowell is a tough one. He has goat DNA. No one has ever started like that in such a tough competition. The junior numbers are all off the charts, 44 and 2 goals in the u18s GF. His body already holds up against men. When he gets the ball he puts the jets on, and keeps moving immediately while releasing the ball, helping him get to the next contest, has had no problem adjusting to the pace of the game. Explosive like Judd and can kick goals.

The shoulder does complicate things, but he's had an 8 month preseason. He's very likely a lock for me, protected by high ownership. I'd take 105/20 from him for 500k.

What do you think he will average? I just see him as too inexperienced to expect a 110 average from and thats what I think people picking him are expecting.

Does he make 100? it's possible, but I see it as unlikely because over a longer time period it's just going to be harder and harder to sustain the kind of performances he had early last year. If he was 400k I'd almost roll the dice thinking he had a chance to average 100 but at 500k you're really looking for 105-110+ and that's asking too much of a player with no real experience at AFL level.

Just a big risk with too much of a lack of data and a lack of precedents to pick him in my opinion. He was so good in those few games and in his junior career that I'd say he's the best prospect and most promising player I've seen, but not sure he's going to be one of the best players in the league across a whole season just yet.

Walsh's first scores in the league were 68, 83, 112, 123 and 112. He ended up averaging 86.

 

[pizza safety]

This worked perfect! Exactly what I was after, even in excel. A quick skim but the standouts for me (all positions):

M. Crouch - 128.8
Laird - 117.6 - These two basically went hand in hand with Laird going into the midfield.
Rich - 113.8 - Not sure why he started so slow but the finish was exceptional (carried into finals also)
Walsh - 117.8
Setterfield - 108.8 - It's like he and Cripps switched bodies to end the season.
Crisp - 117
Pendles - 121 - Old man still got it.
Merrett - 127 - I want to pick him but lot of guys to come back into the midfield so expect he goes back to the wing.
Danger - 124 - Preseason probably trumps this but interesting to note none the less.
Stewart - 115
Whitfield - 115.5.
May - 110.7 - Knew he finished well but not this well. Could be a value proposition not that many are seeking it in the backs.
J. Anderson - 118.4 - This one surprised me, Cunnington a huge question.
L. McDonald - 114.8 - Still one of the all time great, where the F did that breakout in the middle of a season come from.
Rockliff - 128.2 - He'll always tempt me, always.
Houston - 110.7 - Him too...
Gray - 112.2 - This surprised me, firstly I never really noticed it and secondly I thought it might be a couple of the kids.
Boak - 126
Wines - 109 - not as massive but with the 114.8 in the middle six he kind of made the jump and I've always thought he could be a premium.
Steele - 140 - Did not even notice he finished this strong... this has not helped my early leaning towards him!
Gaff - 115.8
Bont - 126.2 - I'd probably start him, and hate myself for it, again if it wasn't for Treloar, so expecting him to start big this time.
Libba - 119.8 - Big finish.
Dunkley - 111.2 - Also strong, Macrae at 108 the surprise of the Dogs.
Berry - 107.3 - He's very much on my radar, really rate him as a player.

A lot of these names have popped up but there are a few at least that haven't. Generally those last rounds are fairly indicative of the next season barring teams where the season is over and they experiment or obvious injuries late that enable. Not a lot of that list is in either of those categories, even the Crows guys started to win after those moves.



To be fair you'll generally get many upgrades in the forwards and backs in that price range. Only takes a shutdown role or a being shut down for those guys to tank.

It's a large reason why I'm trying to pick as many midfield (and ruck) starters and guys I think are keepers this year as I can at the cost of forwards and, to a lesser extent, backs. They're just a lot easier to upgrade.




Lloyd's is a bigger shock because he wasn't even very good. He wasn't a strong intercept player, his touches do almost zero damage and he's a poor defender. Realistically Sydney should be a better side this year. Kennedy, Hewett and Heeney were big outs, Franklin while more pipe dream would also be massive but most of the list is very young and should improve. If Hickey can be even bad in the ruck he'll be an improvement on Sinclair who was flat out non-competitive last year. Mills into the midfield would elevate everyone because he's the kind of star you can build around and takes a lot of pressure off Parker and Kennedy as well as the younger guys (oh please happen!).

Only problem with that list is the reason that JKelly, Fyfe and Cripps are on it is their continuous durability problems. Taranto has never been all that close to a premium, though to be fair he has had a DT season which with a golden ticket would have been, be interesting to see what his role ends up, can't help but feel like Hopper has passed him by and that Green will this year also which when combined with Kelly and Coniglio is a long way back in the pecking order. Throw in Whitfield, Greene, Ward (who being out helped him in the first place), De Boer and perhaps Perryman and that's a lot of competitors. That GWS team may have as many questions as the Dogs! Then we have Macrae who is part of those Dogs!

Such an odd season!

Hickey is hard for me to know much about, I've seen him ruck here and there, but I've barely watched him and he usually looks bad when I do. His SC scores are also pretty poor the majority of the time.

I think Taranto can still hit 103-108 and at 453k represents some value. I don't think you need the best 8 mids but just the best 5-6 or so in the end to have success and you can handle a guy who is about top 15 who ends up at M8. Often one of your premiums fails (like Cripps last year) and averages less than them anyway. He's still pretty young, but is a pretty frustrating player to watch or own, I had him two years ago and he always kicks and just can't kick well. I don't think he has the ceiling based on his game style that other players have, but he is solid because he finds the footy and tackles. My point was more just that he is priced beneath what he can produce, so at the very least represents some value. That was also my point with Cripps, but he's a better case and a better pick.

Fyfe and JKelly aren't so much underpriced or cheap as reliable at their price, you can't pick both of them and if you pick one you can expect an injury, but they are unlikely to underperform their price when they play. They've both earned their price by playing at the same level for years.

My point is just that you won't over pay for any of those picks and I like all of them, but I don't encourage starting Fyfe and JKelly, at least one will get injured, probably both.

 

[wogitalia]

Hickey is hard for me to know much about, I've seen him ruck here and there, but I've barely watched him and he usually looks bad when I do. His SC scores are also pretty poor the majority of the time.

I think Taranto can still hit 103-108 and at 453k represents some value. I don't think you need the best 8 mids but just the best 5-6 or so in the end to have success and you can handle a guy who is about top 15 who ends up at M8. Often one of your premiums fails (like Cripps last year) and averages less than them anyway. He's still pretty young, but is a pretty frustrating player to watch or own, I had him two years ago and he always kicks and just can't kick well. I don't think he has the ceiling based on his game style that other players have, but he is solid because he finds the footy and tackles. My point was more just that he is priced beneath what he can produce, so at the very least represents some value. That was also my point with Cripps, but he's a better case and a better pick.

Fyfe and JKelly aren't so much underpriced or cheap as reliable at their price, you can't pick both of them and if you pick one you can expect an injury, but they are unlikely to underperform their price when they play. They've both earned their price by playing at the same level for years.

My point is just that you won't over pay for any of those picks and I like all of them, but I don't encourage starting Fyfe and JKelly, at least one will get injured, probably both.

I'd argue you overpay for Fyfe and Kelly when you have to add the trade on top and yet there they are flirting with me picking them once again thinking what if they're fit this year!

Taranto, and Cunnington, Rowell, Hopper, Sloane, Prestia, Gus Brayshaw and probably a couple of others in that price range, are all very interesting picks. They don't make enough or score enough points per dollar to match a mediocre rookie so realistically, imo, they have to be keepers. I don't know if I like any of them to go 110+, Rowell probably has the best case but it's utterly unproven and he just missed the best part of a whole season with an injury that is very well known to be an ongoing problem. Which means you're effectively eating your M8 spot up at the start. I wonder if any of them at their prices present better value than whatever premium falls to that range.

Last year for example you could get Bont at 510k, Danger was 550k, Steele could still be had for 560k in round 6, Merrett was 520k, Macrae came back to 580k, Crouch was 510k, Rocky was 445k and for fairness you could have got Cripps for 480k and hated life! One of the rules of SC is there will be underpriced premiums available with the added bonus of more information when picking in that price range. For example we knew last year when Whitfield was concussed that his role was good and his scoring would be to and at 440k we knew it was an easy choice.

Most of those names I'd happily pay an extra 50-75k for a months more information.

 

[BomberArmy]

For me Cunnington will be hard to pass on if fit for Round 1.

 

[Wheedus]

Taranto has been in and out of my line up depending on structure. For me there's enough value there. I don't like the risk on Rowell. As Wogi points out, there are a few too many unknowns and I'm not sure the 10% discount gives you enough comfort / upside to alleviate that risk. I'd prefer to go for those more proven players who are coming in genuinely under-priced. Marc Murphy from a few years ago. Cogs last year (although that didn't pan out entirely well!).

Again, it all comes down to structure, but I like to aim for one of those high $400k players in the M5 with the view to them being an M8.

The biggest problem I'm having this year is filling the four MID spots between Neale, Oliver and the two Nth rookies (assuming they play). It feels like the midfield is just not picking itself like it has in previous years.

Not much talk on Heppell here. If fit (big if), I like him at $320k. A lot depends on his role but I'm not too concerned if he ends up with less midfield minutes and more in the backline this year. We saw in his rookie year how well he can play that role. If he plays forward then that's a different story.

 

[Dimmawit]

Rowell is a tough one. He has goat DNA. No one has ever started like that in such a tough competition. The junior numbers are all off the charts, 44 and 2 goals in the u18s GF. His body already holds up against men. When he gets the ball he puts the jets on, and keeps moving immediately while releasing the ball, helping him get to the next contest, has had no problem adjusting to the pace of the game. Explosive like Judd and can kick goals.

The shoulder does complicate things, but he's had an 8 month preseason. He's very likely a lock for me, protected by high ownership. I'd take 105/20 from him for 500k.

Don't get me wrong, I can see the upside in him as a player but as a selection 500k for a 105 av doesn't seem compelling to me. If he does come out and kill it, is he not the first guy that gets tagged? I haven't looked at the fixture to know what that chance is but GC are still going to be a weak team. 105-110 would be an amazing result and his price has so little room to move. Lock seems like a huge call.

 

[Dimmawit]

What are your thoughts on Prestia @ 446,800?

Plenty of worse picks. could see 105? tiger's have shown though that their game plan doesnt suit high scoring mids. If you got him for a run he could easily deliver 125 but over a season I'd pin him 102-105....which could still make him a good pick if you nailed the rest of your side.

 

[stephen]

I think people might be underestimating Taranto's ceiling. 102 in third season is right up there in the top echelon. He could yet break out properly. It's probably true that we have to be happy with him as a weak m8 to make the pick viable but he seems a pretty low-downside high-upside gamble.

 

[Dimmawit]

I'd argue you overpay for Fyfe and Kelly when you have to add the trade on top and yet there they are flirting with me picking them once again thinking what if they're fit this year!

Taranto, and Cunnington, Rowell, Hopper, Sloane, Prestia, Gus Brayshaw and probably a couple of others in that price range, are all very interesting picks. They don't make enough or score enough points per dollar to match a mediocre rookie so realistically, imo, they have to be keepers. I don't know if I like any of them to go 110+, Rowell probably has the best case but it's utterly unproven and he just missed the best part of a whole season with an injury that is very well known to be an ongoing problem. Which means you're effectively eating your M8 spot up at the start. I wonder if any of them at their prices present better value than whatever premium falls to that range.

Last year for example you could get Bont at 510k, Danger was 550k, Steele could still be had for 560k in round 6, Merrett was 520k, Macrae came back to 580k, Crouch was 510k, Rocky was 445k and for fairness you could have got Cripps for 480k and hated life! One of the rules of SC is there will be underpriced premiums available with the added bonus of more information when picking in that price range. For example we knew last year when Whitfield was concussed that his role was good and his scoring would be to and at 440k we knew it was an easy choice.

Most of those names I'd happily pay an extra 50-75k for a months more information.

Slightly surprised by that last line. If you are in it to win it - picking a Taranto/Cunnington - having them go at 102 (random number) and then picking up a fallen premium as you've mentioned is surely the better move than paying 50-75k more for em as you alluded. I get the trade for a Taranto up has value but this year, more than ever I think, that 100k you are certain to make from Taranto (I can't see anything but 100 av from him), plus the cash the premo mids are also a lock to lose initially is so crucial. Especially if you going to take Gawn as well.

I also think the game has changed. It's fine to plan perfect trading but aggressive trading is crucial i reckon. I think if someone didn't start Neale, picked Taranto in their mids and upgraded Timmy to Lachie early on in the piece - when Taranto makes 80-100k and Neale loses 80-100k - that would be a massive win.

It's an interesting discussion. For mine, Cunnington Taranto Prestia types have a real role this year because we need to find value everywhere to balance to over supply of overpriced premiums. I won't pick more than 1 of these I think but you could make a case for going them all if you wanted to really commit to a strategy there

 

[Chumpion]

Some players scores are inflated but others saw significant jumps in time on ground % i.e. Neale, Merrett, Gawn, which a lot of other players did not. Lloyd I see as unsustainable because Sydney can't sustain conceding so many behinds and because his score is not just a spike year but completely unsustainable for a half-back. These are the players I see as truly inflated. Cripps on the other hand had the opposite thing happen to him, his time on ground went down.

We know that players at the top were over-scored and players at the bottom under-scored compared to previous seasons, so there's an argument to be made to pick players who are underpriced compared to previous seasons or have at least backed up their price across multiple years. Players like Macrae, JKelly, Fyfe, Cripps and Taranto would be the kind of players who are not overpriced compared to what we know they can produce.

I'm not sure you can read too much into Neale's jump in TOG %.. in 2020 he played on average 96mins per game which is actually the same as what he did in 2018 (which had longer quarters) but in 2019 he averaged 110mins. As a TOG % the 2019 season might be less, but I'd argue he actually lost minutes due to the shorter quarters last season. You'd expect with the reduced interchange cap someone like Neale would probably stay out there longer and he's shown he is capable of sustaining 110min games so the fitness is there. He is probably more likely to take his spells forward (which he did a few times last year) meaning he should still get the on field minutes and mid minutes to maintain his elite scoring.

 

[Wheedus]

There is a school of thought that you should pick the best / highest priced (not necessarily the same thing) player on each line and then build from there. That strategy is much more difficult this year but it can be done. Assuming Danger was fit, having a starting line up with Lloyd, Neale, Gawn and Danger would certainly give you some comfort.

 

[wogitalia]

Slightly surprised by that last line. If you are in it to win it - picking a Taranto/Cunnington - having them go at 102 (random number) and then picking up a fallen premium as you've mentioned is surely the better move than paying 50-75k more for em as you alluded. I get the trade for a Taranto up has value but this year, more than ever I think, that 100k you are certain to make from Taranto (I can't see anything but 100 av from him), plus the cash the premo mids are also a lock to lose initially is so crucial. Especially if you going to take Gawn as well.

I also think the game has changed. It's fine to plan perfect trading but aggressive trading is crucial i reckon. I think if someone didn't start Neale, picked Taranto in their mids and upgraded Timmy to Lachie early on in the piece - when Taranto makes 80-100k and Neale loses 80-100k - that would be a massive win.

It's an interesting discussion. For mine, Cunnington Taranto Prestia types have a real role this year because we need to find value everywhere to balance to over supply of overpriced premiums. I won't pick more than 1 of these I think but you could make a case for going them all if you wanted to really commit to a strategy there

If I knew what they were going to score I wouldn't need the months information

A fit looking Cunnington who is moving freely I like for 100, if he looks like he's getting jabbed just to be on the field, not so much. Taranto in the guts I think can do it, playing that nothing role of last year, not so much. A 100 average is a big effort when you consider the level of DT he has needed to do it.

I'm not buying the initial cash loss either. The magic number will stabilise the market, if we go the assumption that they're all overpriced, which seems to be the general opinion, then the overpriced factor will not lead to massive drops, those who are overpriced beyond the general inflation are going to drop for sure but it wouldn't shock me if everyone dropped say 5 points doesn't really move a lot. Remains to be seen and is just a theory.

As someone who didn't start Lachie Neale last year because he was so expensive he has to drop or has not started Ablett because 129 or 132 is overpriced, banking on a price drop can be a fools errand. Heck, even if he does drop to 650k, that's still a hard chase. As much as Lachie feels overpriced, he was genuinely that good last year and I honestly think the average was justified. Backing it up, that's another challenge but I do think he can.

Really all this means nothing at this point as the rookies for mine dictate whether you need to even look at those guys (outside looking and seeing a genuine keeper chance). If the on field rookies are good enough and the benchies will make cash then I'm not going near those guys. If my hand is forced, then with fire I will play

 

[Dimmawit]

If I knew what they were going to score I wouldn't need the months information

A fit looking Cunnington who is moving freely I like for 100, if he looks like he's getting jabbed just to be on the field, not so much. Taranto in the guts I think can do it, playing that nothing role of last year, not so much. A 100 average is a big effort when you consider the level of DT he has needed to do it.

I'm not buying the initial cash loss either. The magic number will stabilise the market, if we go the assumption that they're all overpriced, which seems to be the general opinion, then the overpriced factor will not lead to massive drops, those who are overpriced beyond the general inflation are going to drop for sure but it wouldn't shock me if everyone dropped say 5 points doesn't really move a lot. Remains to be seen and is just a theory.

As someone who didn't start Lachie Neale last year because he was so expensive he has to drop or has not started Ablett because 129 or 132 is overpriced, banking on a price drop can be a fools errand. Heck, even if he does drop to 650k, that's still a hard chase. As much as Lachie feels overpriced, he was genuinely that good last year and I honestly think the average was justified. Backing it up, that's another challenge but I do think he can.

Really all this means nothing at this point as the rookies for mine dictate whether you need to even look at those guys (outside looking and seeing a genuine keeper chance). If the on field rookies are good enough and the benchies will make cash then I'm not going near those guys. If my hand is forced, then with fire I will play

Firstly, 100% agree it all depends on rookies. Let's be honest 98% of what gets said on here is hot air that depends on rookies! It's just that we are all SC nuffies!!

I don't agree that the magic number going down will normalise things and it will all wash out. As I understand it the total $ pool of SC is fixed. The MN goes down to normalise the top end as rookies etc go up in price. This year, because the top end is so much more richly priced there is undoubtedly money to lose by going top-heavy. We can see that with the number of 110+ players. These guys are all gonna fall heavier than usual. Now, whether there's an argument to be made there will be less rookies and therefore less of a MN drop - I dunno, maybe. But my take away (and it's just an opinion of course) is that guys who have an injury discount or that you correctly pick as a bounce-back player have more value than ever to start with that isn't evident at first in their starting price (to an extent).

Also in terms of sitting back and waiting - can't knock your logic at all. This is for sure the right way to play it and doing this with discipline will mostly result in a very high SC ranking but I think if you are going to win the thing you need to plug these gaps cause someone else will risk it, nail it, and be ahead.

I'll be first to admit you need luck to win the thing BUT you also need to put yourself in the position to benefit from luck. Identifying where odds are shortest to gain from this luck is the secret sauce we're all chasing right? It is waaaay harder to finish top 10 twice than to win once in many ways but sometimes the strategy that gets you top 100 every year i think isnt enough to come 1st once. (super subjective opinion and not at all saying I know the way! just to be clear)

Shelby winning AF two years straight (not to mention his other high finishes) is insane.

When there are 200k people playing I think that means you gotta pick a Preuss or a Rozee or pick the guy that month earlier than you'd ideally like to hopefully benefit when you get lucky. You don't necessarily need to do that Rd 1 but I would say that since I won (so long ago now it is irrelevant) i think the time frames of the season have sped up and there are more experienced coaches making riskier moves sooner.....so if you really are trying to win the thing (aren't we all) that some of these moves do need to be really early in the season.

 

[Herbie66]

Don't think I have seen any discussion on LDU yet $ 432,800.00 , thought he was all the rage at the end of last season.

Cheaper again than Rowell , Taranto , Prestia , Cunnington etc price types

Can he get to that 105-107 average which is probably acceptable for 10th mid in 2017-2019.

 

[Couch Coach]

wogitalia and Dimmawit,

Thank you.

I don't care if either of you are correct or incorrect just loving the in-depth discussion.

Keep it up please.

CC