Competitions SuperCoach Racing Autumn 2019
- Thread starter THCLT
- Start date
With the forecast rain we may be well served by having some thoughts on "mudlarks" that might pop-up.
FWIW I would love to know how Sherwood Forest maps in the Derby. He won over 2400m in the NZDerby on a soft track in a good time (2 min 25 seconds odd) in a hard run race. Badly ridden by Michael Walker in the Guineas and now Kerrin McEvoy jumps on. He's $300K. When he won his derby Zebrowski and Quick Thinker were running at inferior meetings.
FWIW I would love to know how Sherwood Forest maps in the Derby. He won over 2400m in the NZDerby on a soft track in a good time (2 min 25 seconds odd) in a hard run race. Badly ridden by Michael Walker in the Guineas and now Kerrin McEvoy jumps on. He's $300K. When he won his derby Zebrowski and Quick Thinker were running at inferior meetings.
In his last 2 starts Sherwood Forest drew wide, and raced forward. In both races he ended up one out and one back, and in both races he took off what seemed a bit early. The rides looked remarkably similar, the difference being, in the NZ Derby, when he looked likely to wilt upon straightening, he managed to kick, and really outstayed them. In the Guineas, that kick just wasn't there. He was dropping back 400m, off a 21 day break, so maybe that's not entirely hard to understand. What I didn't like was, that Price Fawaz beat him home by 7L, when on their respective runs, the margin should have been more 1.5-2L.
Sherwood Forest has drawn wide again in this Derby. My mapping has him stuck 3 and 4 wide early, with Sacramento holding a clear lead. McEvoy will need to decide: Do I keep pressing forward, and get to a clear 2nd one off the fence, or if Sacramento goes hard enough, on the fence. Or do I drop back and try and find a spot? My money says he presses forward, so his fate is determined by how hard Sacramento goes early, and what Get The Idea, Quick Thinker and Zebrinski do. I'm thinking Sherwood Forest setlles 2nd, without cover. The Randwick 2400m is tricky for a horse in this situation. They run 250-300m before coming to their first bend, and are pretty much running a bend for the next 700m. You don't won't to be working widish, with no cover, in that situation. I'm not say you can't win in that scenario, but it either means the race has been run a bit slowly early (which can happen in some Derbies), or you are just better than your opposition.
All in all, the mapping doesn't really favour Sherwood Forest. The only winning scenario I see for him is Sacramento goes hard enough in the first 400m, to give space for Sherwood Forest to cross the 3 previously mentioned horses, but then they slow to a crawl for the next 400m, allowing him a breather, and the advantage of being in front of the main rivals. That is not impossible, but not a scenario I'm backing in.
Sherwood Forest has drawn wide again in this Derby. My mapping has him stuck 3 and 4 wide early, with Sacramento holding a clear lead. McEvoy will need to decide: Do I keep pressing forward, and get to a clear 2nd one off the fence, or if Sacramento goes hard enough, on the fence. Or do I drop back and try and find a spot? My money says he presses forward, so his fate is determined by how hard Sacramento goes early, and what Get The Idea, Quick Thinker and Zebrinski do. I'm thinking Sherwood Forest setlles 2nd, without cover. The Randwick 2400m is tricky for a horse in this situation. They run 250-300m before coming to their first bend, and are pretty much running a bend for the next 700m. You don't won't to be working widish, with no cover, in that situation. I'm not say you can't win in that scenario, but it either means the race has been run a bit slowly early (which can happen in some Derbies), or you are just better than your opposition.
All in all, the mapping doesn't really favour Sherwood Forest. The only winning scenario I see for him is Sacramento goes hard enough in the first 400m, to give space for Sherwood Forest to cross the 3 previously mentioned horses, but then they slow to a crawl for the next 400m, allowing him a breather, and the advantage of being in front of the main rivals. That is not impossible, but not a scenario I'm backing in.
Thanks @Rowsus for such a lucid explantion. I thought Walker slaughtered him last start going four and then three wide from the start. It was almost as though he thought he was in a poor grade race in NZ rather than a Gp1 in Australia. Sherwood Forest would have to have been exceptional to win from that ride. Walker;s comment after the race? "He needs 2400." To me he needed a better jockey. 
Bjorn Baker is looking after the horse with Tony Pike back home in isolation. The hoop might get sage instructions. I would hope McEvoy heads to the fence from the jump and trys to loop the field (only 11 others) with about 1000m to go and turns it into a true staying test. On relection, not sure he can win that way either.
BTW, I am planning on not having a horse in the TJ as the good sprinters are expensive and it seems too open. Thoughts?
Bjorn Baker is looking after the horse with Tony Pike back home in isolation. The hoop might get sage instructions. I would hope McEvoy heads to the fence from the jump and trys to loop the field (only 11 others) with about 1000m to go and turns it into a true staying test. On relection, not sure he can win that way either.
BTW, I am planning on not having a horse in the TJ as the good sprinters are expensive and it seems too open. Thoughts?
Adding to the discussion above, personally I don’t rate Sherwood Forest (he wasn’t the best horse to come out of the NZ Derby, even though he won) - will be staying away. Quick Thinker beat a bunch of BM horses home in his last race. Don’t think he can win (3rd if lucky). Derby wise, Soft 6 or firmer - Shadow Hero, anything softer, Castelvecchio (note, SH ran the best last 600m sectionals in his last race. Bias did not suit)
Doncaster Mile: All things considered, Brandenburg $6 is weighted extremely well with 50.5kg (similar to Kolding last year) - priced well @ $200,000. Has form in the wet. Cascadian & Imaging priced well & Star of the Seas huge roughy IF heavy 9+ $41. Play exotics.
TJ Smith - probably one of the best fields assembled in the last 5 years, personally going Bivouac (provided its firmer than Soft 7), however Nature Strip and SAL (even Gaby) have form at Randwick. Impossible to tip. Stay away from Nature Strip if softer than Soft 7. Exotics only
A few tips
- R4 Paradee $3.70 (3 wide the entire trip 1600m @ Flemington, still won well). Don’t discount Colette though (edit: it was 3 wide at MV*)
- R6 Inglis Sires (Ole Kirk $9), should be 2/2. Absolutely moral beaten in his last race. Has soft form. Query first time clockwise
- Best Bet: Rubisaki R10 $2.25. Best watch some replays because she is a weapon. Won from good to heavy. Surprise if she doesn’t win
Doncaster Mile: All things considered, Brandenburg $6 is weighted extremely well with 50.5kg (similar to Kolding last year) - priced well @ $200,000. Has form in the wet. Cascadian & Imaging priced well & Star of the Seas huge roughy IF heavy 9+ $41. Play exotics.
TJ Smith - probably one of the best fields assembled in the last 5 years, personally going Bivouac (provided its firmer than Soft 7), however Nature Strip and SAL (even Gaby) have form at Randwick. Impossible to tip. Stay away from Nature Strip if softer than Soft 7. Exotics only
A few tips
- R4 Paradee $3.70 (3 wide the entire trip 1600m @ Flemington, still won well). Don’t discount Colette though (edit: it was 3 wide at MV*)
- R6 Inglis Sires (Ole Kirk $9), should be 2/2. Absolutely moral beaten in his last race. Has soft form. Query first time clockwise
- Best Bet: Rubisaki R10 $2.25. Best watch some replays because she is a weapon. Won from good to heavy. Surprise if she doesn’t win
Attachments
Last edited:
Doing some thinking and would like to check if I am going crazy (or not).
Using @Rowsus 's excellent tables (and I know the odds have changed slightly) let's look at two choices. There are others but I am just looking at this as a concept.
Shadow Hero $425K, expected payoff 23.3 points
Quick Thinker $200K plus Zebroski $100K, expected payoff 29.4 points (16.2 +13.2)
So it seems I save $125K and have a better expected payoff if I chose the pair rather than the better horse. Is that the correct interpretation?
Using @Rowsus 's excellent tables (and I know the odds have changed slightly) let's look at two choices. There are others but I am just looking at this as a concept.
Shadow Hero $425K, expected payoff 23.3 points
Quick Thinker $200K plus Zebroski $100K, expected payoff 29.4 points (16.2 +13.2)
So it seems I save $125K and have a better expected payoff if I chose the pair rather than the better horse. Is that the correct interpretation?
I see what your arguing Kenny and it makes my thoughts a bit like a reduction to absurdity argument (not exactly, but like).
I see that thinking of the Derby as a standalone event is bad thinking. What I should be thinking of is the cost per unit of expected return.. What Rowsus's table calls Price/Point. If I were a bit brighter I would construct a sort of marginal utitity table.
In academia we always used markets being perfect as a starting point. However, if you have inside knowledge (e.g., better analysis), use it.
I see that thinking of the Derby as a standalone event is bad thinking. What I should be thinking of is the cost per unit of expected return.. What Rowsus's table calls Price/Point. If I were a bit brighter I would construct a sort of marginal utitity table.
In academia we always used markets being perfect as a starting point. However, if you have inside knowledge (e.g., better analysis), use it.
Chels, I think your point is perfectly valid, just a matter of whether how exactly we interpret Rowsus’s table. There are still a lot of variables that could happen on the day (track condition, on speed bias, good/bad ride, pure luck etc), so if you think QT / Zeb is a good combo, go for it (they could finish 1/2 and I’d look like an actual fool haha)
Rowsus has simplified it & subsequently made it a lot easier for those that don’t follow horses/racing to be able to quantify one’s selection by having an expected score, points per dollar etc. Nonetheless a lot of it will come down to a lot of variables on the day. If only horse racing could be fully analysed in STATs, however sometimes you could do all the form in the world and get done by a $50 smokie (happens all the time lol)
Its sort of like Moneyball where you decide whether analytics supersede old school scouting - but it’s kind of each, with a bit of luck in it too
Sorry if that wasn’t exactly helpful haha
Rowsus has simplified it & subsequently made it a lot easier for those that don’t follow horses/racing to be able to quantify one’s selection by having an expected score, points per dollar etc. Nonetheless a lot of it will come down to a lot of variables on the day. If only horse racing could be fully analysed in STATs, however sometimes you could do all the form in the world and get done by a $50 smokie (happens all the time lol)
Its sort of like Moneyball where you decide whether analytics supersede old school scouting - but it’s kind of each, with a bit of luck in it too
Sorry if that wasn’t exactly helpful haha
