Discussion Tip a Top 30: Using last year's points to predict the future
- Thread starter KLo30
- Start date
I hear you IDIG.
In January it was all so easy to follow the lessons learned. No defenders over $500K, underpriced forwards, value rucks and a midfield consisting of consistent top 10s in Ablett and Pendlebury, new yearly lock candidate Rockliff and my top 30 into top 10 pick Murphy.
Come March and Murphy pings his calf, Ablett’s still wearing an orange cap, and Rockliff isn’t setting the world alight in the new crowded midfield and is talked about spending more time forward. Nic Nat hadn’t played, Leuneberger is playing second fiddle to Martin and Swan is as sharp as a bowling ball. Birchall misses a month of training, Hurn injures his foot and Dangerfield plays up forward. On the flip side, Gray looks like Ablett reincarnated, Mummy looks like setting the world on fire early despite the new ruck scoring system, and last season’s top 15 look like going from strength to strength.
Whilst it can be said that history is a great predictor of the past, history is written anew every season and in the words of the great leader Shane Falco #16 “You’re playing and you think everything is going fine. Then one thing goes wrong. And then another. And another. You try to fight back, but the harder you fight, the deeper you sink. Until you can’t move….you can’t breathe…..because you’re over your head. Like quicksand.”
So, time to take stock, follow your own path and in the immortal words of John Madden “Don’t do anything great if you can’t handle the congratulations.”
This last bit is directed at myself. "Clear the mechanism." - Billy Chapel
In January it was all so easy to follow the lessons learned. No defenders over $500K, underpriced forwards, value rucks and a midfield consisting of consistent top 10s in Ablett and Pendlebury, new yearly lock candidate Rockliff and my top 30 into top 10 pick Murphy.
Come March and Murphy pings his calf, Ablett’s still wearing an orange cap, and Rockliff isn’t setting the world alight in the new crowded midfield and is talked about spending more time forward. Nic Nat hadn’t played, Leuneberger is playing second fiddle to Martin and Swan is as sharp as a bowling ball. Birchall misses a month of training, Hurn injures his foot and Dangerfield plays up forward. On the flip side, Gray looks like Ablett reincarnated, Mummy looks like setting the world on fire early despite the new ruck scoring system, and last season’s top 15 look like going from strength to strength.
Whilst it can be said that history is a great predictor of the past, history is written anew every season and in the words of the great leader Shane Falco #16 “You’re playing and you think everything is going fine. Then one thing goes wrong. And then another. And another. You try to fight back, but the harder you fight, the deeper you sink. Until you can’t move….you can’t breathe…..because you’re over your head. Like quicksand.”
So, time to take stock, follow your own path and in the immortal words of John Madden “Don’t do anything great if you can’t handle the congratulations.”
This last bit is directed at myself. "Clear the mechanism." - Billy Chapel
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Class of 2013
Swan
Griffen
Montagna
Minson
Steven
Cox
Walker
Cornes
Reiwoldt
Scott Selwood
For those 5-10 drop o***
Dangerfeild, K Jack and prehaps Golstein (Currie influence) were the only ones to disappoint beyond expectations.
Edit: I remember Fyfe, Rockcliff and Cotchin being the talks of the town and overall despite Cotchin dropping 4 (how was it only that much) they were reasonably accurate.
If I could pick any players to do a Fyfe, Rockcliff it would be Parker 1 then ike a Sidebottom, Boak pick.
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2014s Top 30 Mid-Year Review
With the mid-year byes completed I thought it would be interesting to see where our top 30 (averages) player are now positioned and whether the predictions have held up.
• Only 12 of our top 30 are currently positioned within the 2015 top 30, with another 2 positioned just outside.
• Only 5 have had a positive change in ranking.
• Only 3 have had a positive change in average, whilst 7 have had a change <3.2pts.
• There are currently 6 of the top 10 positioned out of the current top 10.
Predictions derived from the analysis were:
What can we expect from the top 30 class of 2014 in 2015?
Using the last four years as a guide, we can expect (approximately):
Positive
• 6 players to increase their average by over 4pts (currently 2)
• 3 players to increase their average by up to 4pts ( 1)
• 9 players out of 30 to increase their average (3)
• 2 players to have a double figure increase (2)
• 8 players to have an increase in their total score (TBD)
• 3 of the top 10 will remain so the following season (3)
Negative
• 5 players to decrease their average by 4pts or less (6)
• 15 players to decrease their average by more than 4pts (19)
• 20 players out of 30 to have a decrease in their average (26)
• 10 players to have a double figure decrease (14)
• 22 players to have a decrease in their total score (TBD)
• 17 players to decrease their total score by more than 100pts (TBD)
• 3 of the top 10 won’t remain within the top 30 (6)
• 15 players will fail to make next season’s top 30 (18)
So, looking at the predictions derived from the analysis they have either held up or been generous to the previous top 30. Remember we have only seen just over half the season but still it’s interesting to see after 12 rounds.
Here are the current rankings by position (derived from the current top 100 rankings):
Defenders
Midfield
Rucks
Forwards
With the mid-year byes completed I thought it would be interesting to see where our top 30 (averages) player are now positioned and whether the predictions have held up.
• Only 12 of our top 30 are currently positioned within the 2015 top 30, with another 2 positioned just outside.
• Only 5 have had a positive change in ranking.
• Only 3 have had a positive change in average, whilst 7 have had a change <3.2pts.
• There are currently 6 of the top 10 positioned out of the current top 10.
Predictions derived from the analysis were:
What can we expect from the top 30 class of 2014 in 2015?
Using the last four years as a guide, we can expect (approximately):
Positive
• 6 players to increase their average by over 4pts (currently 2)
• 3 players to increase their average by up to 4pts ( 1)
• 9 players out of 30 to increase their average (3)
• 2 players to have a double figure increase (2)
• 8 players to have an increase in their total score (TBD)
• 3 of the top 10 will remain so the following season (3)
Negative
• 5 players to decrease their average by 4pts or less (6)
• 15 players to decrease their average by more than 4pts (19)
• 20 players out of 30 to have a decrease in their average (26)
• 10 players to have a double figure decrease (14)
• 22 players to have a decrease in their total score (TBD)
• 17 players to decrease their total score by more than 100pts (TBD)
• 3 of the top 10 won’t remain within the top 30 (6)
• 15 players will fail to make next season’s top 30 (18)
So, looking at the predictions derived from the analysis they have either held up or been generous to the previous top 30. Remember we have only seen just over half the season but still it’s interesting to see after 12 rounds.
Here are the current rankings by position (derived from the current top 100 rankings):
Defenders
Midfield
Rucks
Forwards
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Fantastic reading KLo. Just goes to show that there's real merit in trying to pick players that you think will improve the following year (duh) and not chasing last year's points..
I'll admit i'm guilty of picking players based purely off their historical numbers..and the same could be said with my trading.
I've got 8 of last year's top 30 in my team and only 2 of those have improved (Fyfe and Gray) but what's worse is the Av Change for the blokes i do have; Selwood -25, SJ -24, Jacobs -14, Lewis -13, Pendles -10, JPK -10
I'll admit i'm guilty of picking players based purely off their historical numbers..and the same could be said with my trading.
I've got 8 of last year's top 30 in my team and only 2 of those have improved (Fyfe and Gray) but what's worse is the Av Change for the blokes i do have; Selwood -25, SJ -24, Jacobs -14, Lewis -13, Pendles -10, JPK -10
2014 Top 30 Year End Review
With the year complete and preparation for next year beginning I thought it would be interesting to see where our top 30 (averages) players finished and whether the predictions held up.
• Only 17 of our top 30 finished within the 2015 top 30, with another 2 positioned just outside.
• 7 have had a positive change in ranking.
• But only 2 had a positive change in average, whilst 1 maintained their average.
• There were 6 of the top 10 that finished out of the final top 10. The injured Ablett finished top 10 but only played 6 games.
Predictions derived from the analysis were:
What can we expect from the top 30 class of 2014 in 2015?
Using the last four years as a guide, we can expect (approximately):
Positive
• 6 players to increase their average by over 4pts (Final tally: One)
• 3 players to increase their average by up to 4pts ( 2)
• 9 players out of 30 to increase their average (2 plus “a no change”
• 2 players to have a double figure increase (1)
• 8 players to have an increase in their total score (9)
• 3 of the top 10 will remain so the following season (4, which includes the injured Ablett)
Negative
• 5 players to decrease their average by 4pts or less (7)
• 15 players to decrease their average by more than 4pts (19, which includes the injured Liberatore)
• 20 players out of 30 to have a decrease in their average (26)
• 10 players to have a double figure decrease (10)
• 22 players to have a decrease in their total score (21)
• 17 players to decrease their total score by more than 100pts (18)
• 3 of the top 10 won’t remain within the top 30 (1, NB. No.11 finished outside and Ablett stayed but played only 6 games)
• 15 players will fail to make next season’s top 30 (13)
With the year complete and preparation for next year beginning I thought it would be interesting to see where our top 30 (averages) players finished and whether the predictions held up.
• Only 17 of our top 30 finished within the 2015 top 30, with another 2 positioned just outside.
• 7 have had a positive change in ranking.
• But only 2 had a positive change in average, whilst 1 maintained their average.
• There were 6 of the top 10 that finished out of the final top 10. The injured Ablett finished top 10 but only played 6 games.
Predictions derived from the analysis were:
What can we expect from the top 30 class of 2014 in 2015?
Using the last four years as a guide, we can expect (approximately):
Positive
• 6 players to increase their average by over 4pts (Final tally: One)
• 3 players to increase their average by up to 4pts ( 2)
• 9 players out of 30 to increase their average (2 plus “a no change”
• 2 players to have a double figure increase (1)
• 8 players to have an increase in their total score (9)
• 3 of the top 10 will remain so the following season (4, which includes the injured Ablett)
Negative
• 5 players to decrease their average by 4pts or less (7)
• 15 players to decrease their average by more than 4pts (19, which includes the injured Liberatore)
• 20 players out of 30 to have a decrease in their average (26)
• 10 players to have a double figure decrease (10)
• 22 players to have a decrease in their total score (21)
• 17 players to decrease their total score by more than 100pts (18)
• 3 of the top 10 won’t remain within the top 30 (1, NB. No.11 finished outside and Ablett stayed but played only 6 games)
• 15 players will fail to make next season’s top 30 (13)
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Good pick up RB re: Parker, fixed now. I had to do a bit of manual manipulation with the data and obviously missed him.
The Mids are basically covered in the overall Top 30. This year there are actually 6 non-midfielders, which is a little unusual, so it would go down to Gaff at 37. I included all players who averaged 100 or more, which again are mostly midfielders. Interestingly, there were 5 players, including Parker, who averaged 99 in 2015.
The Mids are basically covered in the overall Top 30. This year there are actually 6 non-midfielders, which is a little unusual, so it would go down to Gaff at 37. I included all players who averaged 100 or more, which again are mostly midfielders. Interestingly, there were 5 players, including Parker, who averaged 99 in 2015.