Analysis Trading in a Danger-Field
- Thread starter Impromptu
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Personally, if that happens, I will still keep him. That is a decision each Coach can only make for themselves, though. I can't guarantee my decision is the right one, or the best fit for your plans.
If you believe it means you have enough evidence he won't back up last year, then yes. I would point out the difference in circumstances though. Dangerfield made a stellar jump last year, and while history says he won't completely back up his 118.9 average, if he plays to anything 110+ he is worth persisting with. Montagna on the other hand was showing signs of decline coming into last season. His numbers coming into 2012 were 21/125.2, 22/114.8, 20/100.7. Obviously Chewy was backing him to get back to somewhere around his 2010 figure, and decided quickly, and correctly, that probably wouldn't happen. Is the trade right if you think he won't back up last year? Yes, but it's not quite the same situation as Chewy and Joey last year.
Using a mid point of your scenario, and lets say he scores 70 this week. His break even would look something like:
BE = 3 x 118.86 (pricing average) - 63 (round 1 score) - 70 (round 2 score) = 223.
His price drop would be (round 3 score - 223) x $442, so if he scored 123 in round 3 his price drop would be $44,200.
This is an approximation only, but will be very close. You can substitute your figures in for rounds 2 & 3 to see what your guess says his price will drop. If this scenario plays out, you are much better to trade him out after round 2, than trade him out in say round 4. I still wouldn't trade him out though, I'm backing him to reach that 110+ we need him to play to by seasons end.
If you believe it means you have enough evidence he won't back up last year, then yes. I would point out the difference in circumstances though. Dangerfield made a stellar jump last year, and while history says he won't completely back up his 118.9 average, if he plays to anything 110+ he is worth persisting with. Montagna on the other hand was showing signs of decline coming into last season. His numbers coming into 2012 were 21/125.2, 22/114.8, 20/100.7. Obviously Chewy was backing him to get back to somewhere around his 2010 figure, and decided quickly, and correctly, that probably wouldn't happen. Is the trade right if you think he won't back up last year? Yes, but it's not quite the same situation as Chewy and Joey last year.
Using a mid point of your scenario, and lets say he scores 70 this week. His break even would look something like:
BE = 3 x 118.86 (pricing average) - 63 (round 1 score) - 70 (round 2 score) = 223.
His price drop would be (round 3 score - 223) x $442, so if he scored 123 in round 3 his price drop would be $44,200.
This is an approximation only, but will be very close. You can substitute your figures in for rounds 2 & 3 to see what your guess says his price will drop. If this scenario plays out, you are much better to trade him out after round 2, than trade him out in say round 4. I still wouldn't trade him out though, I'm backing him to reach that 110+ we need him to play to by seasons end.
My inclination is also to keep him. He is a "mental" player, and if/when he gets his head back in the right place, we'll be glad we stuck with him. Obviously the other 2 options are:
If you decide to trade Danger out, you could go for value on your replacement, or do a complete downgrade to a Rookie, and use that cash on your Rucks.
Back in your original plan, what ever that happened to be, that you made prior to round 1, and see how it plays out. I like this 2nd option better, and it still includes the possibility of down grading Watts, if you thought coming into the season that a player around that price was a possible correction.
If you decide to trade Danger out, you could go for value on your replacement, or do a complete downgrade to a Rookie, and use that cash on your Rucks.
Back in your original plan, what ever that happened to be, that you made prior to round 1, and see how it plays out. I like this 2nd option better, and it still includes the possibility of down grading Watts, if you thought coming into the season that a player around that price was a possible correction.
Watts, i don't know what I would do because similar to Ryder, he'll be quite inconsistent but the monsters will hopefully even out his average (somewhat).
I think the Danger to Mundy + 150k discussions is quite an interesting proposition. Generating cash for the same points at the cost of a trade (if they average the same) would be very appealing. I'm going to keep my faith in Danger because I think he and the crows will bounce back this week but if you truly believe Mundy can average the same as Danger, it definitely does have some merit. I'd be doing it next week though unless you have other trades planned.
I think the Danger to Mundy + 150k discussions is quite an interesting proposition. Generating cash for the same points at the cost of a trade (if they average the same) would be very appealing. I'm going to keep my faith in Danger because I think he and the crows will bounce back this week but if you truly believe Mundy can average the same as Danger, it definitely does have some merit. I'd be doing it next week though unless you have other trades planned.
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My expectation is that the mids ranked say 7-10th. Will all average very similar, so it may just come down to value.
I think Mundy will be there abouts and is still very good value, although I do expect a tag next week.
Also his TOG is 74%, so I do expect his scores to improve.
Expecting another big one from Swallow this week, who is also on my radar.
I think Mundy will be there abouts and is still very good value, although I do expect a tag next week.
Also his TOG is 74%, so I do expect his scores to improve.
Expecting another big one from Swallow this week, who is also on my radar.
im not concerned i picked danger for the season not just the start , he is one of the most SC relevant players since ablett in my opinion as he can influence a game so much like ablett with his strength and burst of speed also his ability to kick goals . someone like mundy is very consistant but once again in my opinion doesnt have the highs that danger can go (just has to get there again) i could end up with egg on my face but i will hold'em
