Strategy 2023: Round 11 Trades

[Russty_]

I am going to trade out the concussed Haynes who has done a great job averaging 94 from an opening price of just $318K.
I leaning towards Stewart but am going to look closely at Doch before I finalise that one.
I will need need some funds after Haynes lost about 35K on the back of the injury-affected score of 7, so probably something like Oscar Allen to Wardlaw.
Then a deep breath and pause in trading next week as I prepare for a near impossible. never before seen move in R13/14.
I just might be DOWNgrading a rookie to a proven premo.. (hint: think Purple)

Yeah I started Fyfe, that worked out well for me

 

[tso]

Jelly, Roberts OUT
Atkins DEF Loop, Humphrey MID IN

181K Spare and keep Oliver for now through the byes

 

[Russty_]

Hollands is gone after two subbed games in a row.

I wonder if Cincotta gets another go now?

 

[Blue Bloods]

I wonder if Cincotta gets another go now?

It is out of Boyd or Cincotta for the last defended spot. Boyd is a very good kick something Carlton Is crying out for, but is a lock down back so doesn’t get a lot of ball so what is the point.

So Cincotta is probably a 50/50 to get games over the byes, but most likely getting games at some point later in the season

 

[NT.Thunder]

Is there an option to cash out prior to the byes?

 

[gutsroy]

Bont slingshot ideas out the window, Jelly to deal with (unlike an Oliver, less reason for me to hold given Rd 15 bye and bye clearance problem).

Interested in genuine feedback here:

Kelly > Steele (have concerns re shoulder, less so re knee, but price and bye work)
Cowan > Fleeton (Cowan doesn't seem anywhere near selection, Fleeton short-term JS can't be bad)
Baker > Ridley (Baker has done nothing wrong, Ridley is clearly not a topliner, but price point and bye o***et that within budget)

Is this going too mediocre to justify chewing up a boost?

 

[Miss_Brightside]

I was very much on the fence last round about getting him and got nudged over by the fact he will probably play the bye round.

If you are looking at him as a cash cow from his current price point, you’d either want to be in a very good position trades/cash wise, or be looking at Humphries as a longer term cash cow as he could easily have 1-2 average games the next 2-3 rounds and stall completely (or god forbid, go backwards).

There’s quite a lot of variables to weigh up:
- Who are the other viable downgrade targets this week, and how/when will they score?
- What could you do with the cash differential between Humphrey and a cheaper downgrade target in the next few rounds?
- How do you think Humphrey will score in the next few rounds?

So there’s no right or wrong answer per se, but the answer is dependent on your team situation, your plans for future trading, and your opinion of Humphrey’s future scoring.

@Miss_Brightside still a great option as a cash cow but this is the last week you could pick him up, having already missed his $70k price hike…

should still generate over $100k if he averages mid 60 scores from here.

Has the best bye or round 13 and provides adequate cover for the other 3 bye rounds.
Should get you some quick cash gen to upgrade to a premium post byes….

Systemnshows Humphrey ony makes $70k in two weeks with a pair of 64's and then loses money. Probably needs 75-80 for $100k

Thank you all for your amazing insights and thoughts. I very much appreciate it. Truly.💛

 

[Darkie]

Here is my mess :-

View attachment 57413

Cash:12,000

Bye situation is quite good overall at least.

Main issues - Oliver injured, Anderson BE 201 (liked him as a POD/perfect bye but form has dropped) & Simpson high BE now/could be dropped after a poor game.

Not much cash gen going on with the bench rookies lol

Considering going a moneyball approach :-

View attachment 57414 '

Leaving me like this :-

View attachment 57415

Merrett,JDG, JHF all have low BEs & nice draws coming up.

Resigned myself to not being able to get to proper full premium through injuries/some poor starting picks so guys like De Goey/JHF/Rowell as quasi premiums will have to suffice to get the rookies off the ground - doing this would leave 3 rookies to upgrade (Sheezel a keeper for me)

Thoughts & any other ideas welcome

I like the Merrett pick, but am a bit lukewarm on the other two. Neither is proven, and neither is even that cheap versus what they have delivered this year (using c. 5,000 as the MN - I gather it’s probably still a bit higher right now).

If you are heading down this type of path, I wonder if you might take two solid picks and one cheapie flier … maybe a Kennedy type as the 3rd pick, and upgrade the 2nd selection with the loose change. If you get the cheapie right, you might be able to sideways to a discounted Mills type in one trade, whereas you can’t do a mini upgrade of both De Goey and JHF in one go.

Darcy Cameron would also be worth a look if you’re searching at around that price point. Cox has played well recently, but Cameron could outscore De Goey with better positional value as a forward, and ruck cover thrown in.

 

[Shannon]

Anyone considering Jordan Ridley at 414K? 122 last week, Baldwin playing key defender with Laverde & Kelly likely back this week so will not be playing lockdown - tempting 🤔

 

[Slammer]

It is out of Boyd or Cincotta for the last defended spot. Boyd is a very good kick something Carlton Is crying out for, but is a lock down back so doesn’t get a lot of ball so what is the point.

So Cincotta is probably a 50/50 to get games over the byes, but most likely getting games at some point later in the season

Do we actually have someone that can kick?

 

[BenjiGW]

Is Tom Green likely to benefit from the Josh Kelly injury? or will that slow him down?

 

[Miller is a Steele]

Anyone considering Jordan Ridley at 414K? 122 last week, Baldwin playing key defender with Laverde & Kelly likely back this week so will not be playing lockdown - tempting 🤔

Wouldn’t recommend as someone who has owned him since round 1. I think he goes high 80’s, maybe low 90’s from here. I guess that means he does outperform the price, but not by enough to warrant selection in my eyes.

Others including myself have noticed Ridley being underscored for some acts, particularly intercept marks. Could be owner’s bias, but I don’t think so. For example last week he had 32 disposals (21 kicks), 14 marks, 9 CP, 11 IP, 498 MG, 78% DE and 4 clangers. Huge game… for just 122 points. Stewart would easily get 150-160 for that performance.

He could be playing smaller this week which in theory sounds great, but it hasn’t really resulted in better scoring.

Also important to note that from rounds 1-7 Ridley and Redman had roughly a 50/50 split on kick ins and a couple going to McGrath. Round 8 was the injury game, round 9 he missed. Round 10 he only took 1 of 9. Redman and Hind took 3 each and McGrath took 2.

Would much rather Dale for 30k more, but he does have that round 15 bye.

As always though, go with your gut.

 

[Beg2Differ]

Is Tom Green likely to benefit from the Josh Kelly injury? or will that slow him down?

I don't think it affects Green much however I think it does help Cognilio who has been drifting forward and bit more in recent weeks.

 

[SGG]

Is Tom Green likely to benefit from the Josh Kelly injury? or will that slow him down?

Green will just keep doing what he’s doing.

 

[frosty1]

Thoughts on JS and points potential and long term cash gen

Weddle vs Sam Butler vs Baldwin vs going early on Wardlaw vs going early on Ford?

Thinking (pending selection) that I'd move Angwin to one (while moving Ginbey to Wines perhaps)

Goal = bolster depth of scoring coming into byes and covering Oliver.

 

[dylan123]

Not sure where to ask this but is Walsh on track to get fwd status? Was mentioned a week or two ago that he might, but haven't been paying enough attention to know if that's actually likely or not?

 

[frosty1]

Not sure where to ask this but is Walsh on track to get fwd status? Was mentioned a week or two ago that he might, but haven't been paying enough attention to know if that's actually likely or not?

There's a thread on dual position. Apparently looking more unlikely after last weekend

 

[dylan123]

There's a thread on dual position. Apparently looking more unlikely after last weekend

Thanks, I didn't scroll down enough to see it on first quick glance.

 

[Locky27]

Oliver -> Merrett
Simpson -> Redman

 

[donnybuang]

Thinking

Oliver>Neale
Baker>Freoshaw/Serong/Steele
Teakle>Fyfe