Strategy 2023: Round 12 Trades

[Ben's Beasts]

Don't mind the Ridley option but I'm going to assume that those considering him don't have at least 3 of Sicily, Day, Dawson or Daicos like some of us?

 

[Johno9911]

If you had the $30k to do it, is it worth switching Wilmot to Greenwood? Greenwood is $30k more expensive with a breakeven of -12 (while Wilmot’s is at 90 post bye) and his last 2 scores under Ratten have been 91 and 116 with a clear role in the side with LDU on the injury list.

Obviously there’s risks when Clarko and LDU return, but as an avenues to generate cash over the bye rounds is it worth the trade?

 

[xanderdom]

Don't mind the Ridley option but I'm going to assume that those considering him don't have at least 3 of Sicily, Day, Dawson or Daicos like some of us?

Dawson, Stewart and Daicos for me. Ziebell/Sheezel D4/D5. And Ridley to potentially complete my backline.

Shannon and Frosty raise great points. Realistically, Ridley at D6 for $428k is a bargain.

 

[Courtesans]

Dont really have anyone I want to trade apart from Roberts so, Roberts to Ford. Mullin and Harrison could be likely types on the bubble to cash in Phillips, JVR, Mitchell, Johnson, Aitkens, Humphrey.

 

[Connoisseur]

Out: K Chandler and D Wilmot
In: E Ford and J Macrae

Into single figure trades and one step closer to opening the No Trades Left Club.

Or even closer with
Out: A Davey, D Wilmot and K Chandler
In: H Greenwood, J Ridley and E Ford


Allows Mitchell, Weddle and Sharp next round to Mullin, rookie and Neale. 5 trades left and then potentially two of Wardlaw, Cincotta and Ford sold on their bye for Mills and rookie for three trades left.

 

[inwhiterooms]

Don't mind the Ridley option but I'm going to assume that those considering him don't have at least 3 of Sicily, Day, Dawson or Daicos like some of us?

Just Daicos and Day over here, but I'm still very seriously considering moving on Day who I just think is more of a DT player. He's just not clean enough and his uncontested marks are not rewarded like they are in DT.

 

[7/11]

Brayshaw did ok with no ruck against the best tandem in the league on the weekend? I think it’s fine to bet against Brayshaw if you missed the dip but I don’t think having no ruck should be a heavily considered point in doing so.

Fair point, though Melbourne were not themselves last weekend, looked very disjointed compared to normal.

Will be interesting to see how they play the percentage ruck for Jackson whilst Darcy is out. They seemed to let him loose after the injury and he was very impressive.

 

[Darkie]

If you had the $30k to do it, is it worth switching Wilmot to Greenwood? Greenwood is $30k more expensive with a breakeven of -12 (while Wilmot’s is at 90 post bye) and his last 2 scores under Ratten have been 91 and 116 with a clear role in the side with LDU on the injury list.

Obviously there’s risks when Clarko and LDU return, but as an avenues to generate cash over the bye rounds is it worth the trade?

I would say it’s worth the cash, but not the trade.

If we said that a trade was worth something towards 150k, Greenwood needs to get close to 500k to justify that, which would mean averaging >95, or more if you wanted the cash relatively quickly.

LDU is seemingly 1-2 weeks away, and I wouldn’t be overly surprised if Clarko came back soon given the recent news.

Edit: I’m now considering whether you need to include the value of, say, 30ppg for Greenwood outscoring Wilmot. It might be more viable if those points are incremental for you.

 

[Deeman1]

Or even closer with
Out: A Davey, D Wilmot and K Chandler
In: H Greenwood, J Ridley and E Ford
View attachment 57802

Allows Mitchell, Weddle and Sharp next round to Mullin, rookie and Neale. 5 trades left and then potentially two of Wardlaw, Cincotta and Ford sold on their bye for Mills and rookie for three trades left.

Is that 3 trades with F6 as Ford/Sturt?

 

[Connoisseur]

Is that 3 trades with F6 as Ford/Sturt?

Dunkley is hiding on the mid bench to be swung back to the forward line.

 

[xanderdom]

Teakle > Briggs
Sharp > Mullin via Cincotta and SMitch DPP
Wilmot > Ford via Drury DPP

$350.2k ITB post trades.

Is where I'm at atm

Currently letting this option marinate:

Wilmot -> Ridley
Cripps -> Rowell
Teakle -> Ford via Madden DPP

9 trades left, $17.9k ITB - current team below

Byes form:
R12: 19 | incl. Cincotta
R13: 20 | plan on no trades
R14: 17* | plan on 2 down 1 up using S.Ryan, SMitch, Ashcroft or Hollands = 7 trades remaining
R15: 12* | plan on 3 down 2 up using whomever I didn't trade out (above). Have to consider Sheezel this week... = 4 trades remaining, should probably reconsider my R14 plan considering how many I don't have available.

 

[Zimmer]

Solid points made, I am tempted by him also.

Here are Essendon's kickout stats for the year so far :-

View attachment 57797

Curious as to why McGrath's round 8 numbers were so high - that was the game when Ridley was concussed early on with the Rioli incident off the ball. So it looks like Redman & Ridley are the clear main guys, Hind coming into the team recently not ideal - would be nice if got dropped

Kick in stats from last year :-

View attachment 57799

Again the main issue is Hind - otherwise it is Ridley/Redman.

Ridley SC yearly averages since 2020 :-

View attachment 57800

Scores so far this year:-

View attachment 57801

He certainly has to be on the radar for mine if looking for a D6 - most of us are struggling for cash gen, trying to get the rookies off the field.

If he doesn't have to play lockdown, he clearly scores well. If Hind gets dropped then it makes him even more tempting.

Hind needs a stint in the twos. Has been ordinary lately.

 

[Connoisseur]

Currently letting this option marinate:

Wilmot -> Ridley
Cripps -> Rowell
Teakle -> Ford via Madden DPP

9 trades left, $17.9k ITB - current team below

Byes form:
R12: 19 | incl. Cincotta
R13: 20 | plan on no trades
R14: 17* | plan on 2 down 1 up using S.Ryan, SMitch, Ashcroft or Hollands = 7 trades remaining
R15: 12* | plan on 3 down 2 up using whomever I didn't trade out (above). Have to consider Sheezel this week... = 4 trades remaining, should probably reconsider my R14 plan considering how many I don't have available.

View attachment 57805

Have you considered holding Cripps and trading Hollands now for someone like Wardlaw for a $180k difference or Mullin? Leaves approx $200,000+ in the bank next round for S Ryan to a midfield premium (eg Neale- via Madden and Coniglio).

 

[randomcliche]

Or even closer with
Out: A Davey, D Wilmot and K Chandler
In: H Greenwood, J Ridley and E Ford
View attachment 57802

Allows Mitchell, Weddle and Sharp next round to Mullin, rookie and Neale. 5 trades left and then potentially two of Wardlaw, Cincotta and Ford sold on their bye for Mills and rookie for three trades left.

Is that 3 trades with F6 as Ford/Sturt?

Dunkley is hiding on the mid bench to be swung back to the forward line.

I like the Ridley price (I started him). M8 Greenwood is the one I wouldn't be super confident in long-term. Fine for the byes... but #NTLC incoming....

 

[Manikato1]

Currently letting this option marinate:

Wilmot -> Ridley
Cripps -> Rowell
Teakle -> Ford via Madden DPP

9 trades left, $17.9k ITB - current team below

Byes form:
R12: 19 | incl. Cincotta
R13: 20 | plan on no trades
R14: 17* | plan on 2 down 1 up using S.Ryan, SMitch, Ashcroft or Hollands = 7 trades remaining
R15: 12* | plan on 3 down 2 up using whomever I didn't trade out (above). Have to consider Sheezel this week... = 4 trades remaining, should probably reconsider my R14 plan considering how many I don't have available.

Not wishing to distract you from your plans but is Rowell an intended keeper? If so you may wish to consider how many wins GC can get in the next 11 games. His scoring when they win is excellent but his scoring when they lose is not that good. They do look as though they have a few wins likely in the next couple of rounds but after the byes it looks tougher.

 

[dicksilverman]

Is there any sense in shifting Marshall to Witts?

Bump for myself 😊

 

[Athomas]

Bump for myself 😊

I would say no most of the time, but if you aren’t going to field 18 this week (or even 19) then it could be worthwhile.

The benefit is really only this round… and I’m not sure who will average more after the byes. Seems like a wasted trade but if it saves a donut or 30Ish score this week, possibly worth the 100 or so points.

 

[BigRuss]

Bump for myself 😊

Why are you contemplating it?

 

[Darkie]

Bump for myself 😊

I’ll go for no, looks very sideways to me. Perhaps if there’s a draw or role angle in addition to any bye benefit, you could consider it.

 

[dicksilverman]

Why are you contemplating it?

Thanks folks. Slightly higher average and only miss Witts points in the single game bye, therefore easier to cover. Pure luxury trade and I see Witt’s coming home stronger than Marshall.