Strategy 2023: Round 16 Trades

[Maccas marvels]

Trac has got to the stage where hes so obvious of a pick for anyone wirh the cash that the best move may very well be to take him on, even with the money I'd seriously have considered going unique, now its just made the decision for me haha.

I picked him up last week and in my eyes he was poor and still scored 120….

Easy pick for those fading Oliver….especially with his ceiling….

 

[randomcliche]

I have a conundrum.
I have 5 trades left, and still need to complete my f6 and m8.
I have 5 reasonably fat 'rookies' currently filling these spots and 155k in the bank: Cincotta, Fyfe, Johnson, Wardlaw, Ford.
I can play it safe and hold the trades a touch longer, get the maximum cash from 3 of these players, hold the other 2 as cover and try to get a 2 up 1 down going to middling targets, maybe with a 1 trade upgrade this week (fyfe to cripps for example), this would save 2 trades for injuries, or I can swing for the fences and spend 2 trades now and get anyone, and only have 1 trade injury cover, or potentially be stuck with one of them on field for the rest of the season.
bont and gulden are the main big names I'm missing.
I can only afford bont this week if I go fyfe and Johnson out though, which leaves an unreliable Ford at f6 with no back up other than maric for the foreseeable future, unless I cash him and wardlaw in asap and drop down to a scary 1 trade left.
Gulden doesn't destroy my structure, I could pick any of 2 of the 5 to go and keep whoever to hold down m8 with back up of my choice.

When I planned out my bye trades 2 weeks ago I said I would sit on my hands this round and stop burning trades, but those two just put out monster scores and I hate watching it!

I like the idea of a value target like Keays this week as it sounds like your forwards are sketchy AF. Minimum 3 trades for injuries from here. Gulden won't play witches hats each week.

I'm selling Johnson/Fyfe for a 23rd premium. But I've got Gawn stuck at R3 and Mitchell covering Sicily with 4 trades left - so like you, I'll be running a rookie this round.

 

[Miller is a Steele]

Do we think Humphrey now dead in the water after what appears to be change in role?
was considering holding him for bench cover for rest of year but concerned at his out put now….
thoughts?

Yep. Was planning on having him as my cover for the rest of the season, but I now have 0 confidence in his role. With Miller close to a return, I can’t see it getting any better. Humphrey to Keays and going down to 3 trades instead of the planned 4 seems an obvious choice for me.

 

[mike89]

I think I'm going libba. If mills is incredible on Friday night then there could be a change of plan.

I'm roughly here as well. If Mills looks a viable M8 though I can go to Rozee or Butters instead, trade Mitchell to Mills next round and push eg. Ziebell to 23rd.

After several false starts this season I'm making sure I don't read too much into the West Coast game though...

 

[Shaunpro1]

I picked him up last week and in my eyes he was poor and still scored 120….

Easy pick for those fading Oliver….especially with his ceiling….

I just think when a player has to carry such a load regression is never too far away, its basically Viney and Trac versus the world at the moment, Geelong definitely overran them by smart management and rotating alot of names through the guts, something they need to address I reckon otherwise their core mids will be cooked before they even get to the business end.

 

[Juzzo]

Anyone able to tell me what has happened to Jade Gresham the last 6 or 7 weeks? He's the sort of guy who I might have liked any F7/M9 at the start of the year, and he has completely fallen apart from a scoring perspective. At his price I wonder whether he's worth having sitting on the pine for the last part of the season?

It's a good question, his DE has been appalling last 6 games. TOG was down against Lions. Getting a few CBAs. Not sure, role?, niggle, confidence, any Saint supporters care to shed light?

 

[Blaze]

4 trades left, won't be complete but will try to loop as best as possible for at least one round (taking a spike score from Williams/Johnson/Mitchell) and look at someone like Mills in Round 17 (He should be ~400K after next round)

If a viable rookie pops up, a stronger upgrade will be an option but would leave me with 2 trades.

Probably just take it easy for a round and see if any carnage occurs!

Glad you are taking it easy as I'm playing you in the P&R League this week 😜

 

[Serj]

I like the idea of a value target like Keays this week as it sounds like your forwards are sketchy AF. Minimum 3 trades for injuries from here. Gulden won't play witches hats each week.

I'm selling Johnson/Fyfe for a 23rd premium. But I've got Gawn stuck at R3 and Mitchell covering Sicily with 4 trades left - so like you, I'll be running a rookie this round.

5 of them are solid: dunkley, Taranto, macrae, rozee, dcam.
It's the sixth that is the issue. Funnily enough I've struggled on who to upgrade the forwards to all season, the first 4 I started with and only grabbed dcam last week. Aside from an expensive butters, gulden seems like the only forward of note left.

I like the Keays option now you say it though, fyfe>keays fits with 12k left, and 4 trades with 1 upgrade to go. That does seem nice!

 

[mwross91]

Trying to work out what to do here for the run home.
5 trades left, $25k in bank.

Team is "full premo" but wary my backline might be on the lighter side with the fluctuations of Ziebell/ Sheezel and the glaringly obvious Tom Stewart sized hole...

Unfortunately I didn't pull the trigger on Humphrey to Keays last week so tossing up what to do now.

I can either downgrade Humphrey to a rookie option (even the likes of Sheldrick) and have the coin to upgrade Ziebell to Stewart. This would however mean likely running with Sheldrick on field for a week or two with Oliver issues.
Alternatively, I swap Humphrey for someone like Himmerlberg or Matt Kennedy who provide a bit more flexibility with my defence - but likely means I struggle to get Stewart in until late in the year.

Unsure on the Oliver issue... my main target would be Lachie Neale. But I know my opponent this week and next also have Oliver. And if I can get through these weeks without trading then he would be ideal in the run home. Plus it saves me burning some precious trades.

 

[Rumbler]

Currently have only 7 trades and 3k cash left.
I was going to trade S.Mitchell, Fyfe, and Melican to English + rookies this week for my final upgrade but the latest Oliver news has screwed up those plans. Instead I'm thinking of trading Oliver to English. This will also allow another week of cash generation for S.Mitchell and Fyfe.

Assuming no other injuries/suspensions, I could get Oliver back next week or the week after using my final boost. Problem is that will leave me with only 3 injury trades for the run home.
The "ideal situation" would be two players going up high enough in cash (i.e. S.Mitchell and Sheldrick) that will allow me to get Oliver back in 2 trades instead of 3. Seems unlikely though.

Long term smart move is probably to make no trades this round and field whatever I have (20 premiums, and two players out of S.Mitchell, Fyfe, and Sheldrick). However, my ranking will definitely suffer. I want to try and stay in the top 1k.

Really not sure what to do. Any suggestions welcome.
Team below for reference.

 

[jaca]

Time to move on from Clarry as an in..

So, 1 trade and get Cripps, Mills,
2 trades, get attached, Libba, whoever

7 trades before the above.

 

[Russty_]

Do we think Humphrey now dead in the water after what appears to be change in role?
was considering holding him for bench cover for rest of year but concerned at his out put now….
thoughts?

He'll be a warm body getting games but he'll lose some money if this stuck in the fwd line role continues, it's hard to know for sure Macca, he could score another 90 this week for all we know. Depends on what you could use the money for now I guess if you're offloading him.

 

[Courtesans]

Went for two guns last week in Petracca and Dawson go again with Libba. Lucky to have traded Oliver. Seems many teams have 3 left pre Oliver news to complete.

 

[frosty1]

Just saw the Oliver news...far out.

I blame Tom Stewart for me being in this situation. I'm assuming I'm just holding at this point. Can run the upgrades around him and have Fyfe at M8 in the meantime.

 

[Manikato1]

Looking at The Bear into Mills and the team is pretty much done. Cannot risk Bear scoring low again as it puts too many players out of trade reach. A 50 could see him drop 35 or 40k.

 

[BomberSam]

Last two upgrades. What do you prefer?

1. Libba and LDU this week
2. Parish and Serong this week
3. Parish/Serong this week, Clarry next
4. Libba this week, Clarry in two weeks

Notes:
Options 1-3 leave me with 4 trades left over. Option 4 leaves 3 trades left over.
For Options 3 and 4, it's worth noting that I have good DPP cover for M8 this week (ability to take best score of Fyfe/MJ this week even though they are in the same game, and able to loop Seamus into Fyfe or MJ next week).

 

[Shaunpro1]

I like the idea of a value target like Keays this week as it sounds like your forwards are sketchy AF. Minimum 3 trades for injuries from here. Gulden won't play witches hats each week.

I'm selling Johnson/Fyfe for a 23rd premium. But I've got Gawn stuck at R3 and Mitchell covering Sicily with 4 trades left - so like you, I'll be running a rookie this round.

be very interested how Gulden scores Friday Night, Geelong put a hell of alot of work into him last time and he was pathetic.

 

[Miller is a Steele]

be very interested how Gulden scores Friday Night, Geelong put a hell of alot of work into him last time and he was pathetic.

Considering chucking the E on him myself. Had that 47 against them in round 6 and a 58 in the GF (although he wasn’t a premium last year and was playing a different role). Lloyd also has had scoring issues against the Cats recently with 77 against them in round 6 and a 57 in the GF. Important to remember these games were 100 point losses, which surely won’t happen at the SCG.

 

[Zoku Pops]

I'm a super aggressive player but genuinely thought holding Clayton was a no brainer - easy to cover for first two byes so really only losing out on maybe 150 points max if it was a 3 week hamstring (and at the time there was every chance it was less) which Clayton would get back in the run home easily. I was looking like a genius a week out from the King's Bday game.

Hurts to get it so horribly wrong but all you can really do is laugh at the ridiculousness of it all now. Plus the bright side is you'll also be able to tell people that you were part of the 6-8 week Clayton Oliver hamstring injury of 2023 that we will no doubt talk about for years to come.

 

[randomcliche]

be very interested how Gulden scores Friday Night, Geelong put a hell of alot of work into him last time and he was pathetic.

As a non owner, I’ll be cheering this option. I backed COGs into beat him this season, and I’m well behind to date. And it’s not. Case of both because I started Macrae who I unexpectedly got as a forward…Going to try avoid this mistake next year.