How to pick my team (with an Analysis of last 3 SuperCoach Winner)!

[Courtesans]

I bow to Rowsus for posting the following a little while ago, but I think his wisdom is well worth repeating, some of you may not have read it. I encourage you to, as SC is about to open. If any can add or subtract to a philosophy of how to go about it perhaps this is the thread to expouse it. This article by Rowsus is a good start.


I want to demonstrate once again how important it is to get good value from your initial $10,000,000.
Once again looking at chewylizards team.
Chewy started with 12 players that cost $400k or more.
The interesting thing is to look at not only where those 12 players finished on the 2011 ave/game ladder (ie how they looked when chewy chose them), but also to look at where they finished 2012 on the ave/game ladder.
Player -(2011 ranking) - (2012 ranking) - red means traded out, and did not finish in his team.

Ablett - (2) - (1)
Mumford - (13) - (98)
Selwood - (15) - (8)
Franklin - (16) - (11)
Goddard - (23) - (46)
Watson - (27) - (5)
Pavlich - (28) - (20)
Deledio (30) - (9)
Montagno (46) - (54)
Martin - (50) - (119)
Sidebottom - (131) - (27)
Dangerfield - (165) - (7)

So chewy started with only one of the 12 most expensive players (Ablett): looking at this year the 12 most expensive players are: Ablett, Swan, Pendlebury, Beams, Watson, Kennedy, Dangerfield, Selwood, Deledio, Cotchin, Franklin, Tuck. How many of you are being brave enough to start with only one player from this group?
He started with only 4 of the top 20 - (add Mummy, Selwood and Buddy to Ablett), players 13 to 20 this year are: NicNat, Maric, Boyd, Murphy, Sandilands, Jack, Cox, Pavlich. How many of you are brave enough to start 2013 with only 4 of the top 20?
So he chose 12 players over $400k, and finished with 10 of them.
1 in the top 10,
4 in the top 20,
8 in the top 30,
10 in the top 50, then threw in Sidey and Danger at 131 and 165.
Of the 10 players he chose and kept, 8 of them improved their position from 2011 to 2012, some of them markedly!
165th to 7th, 131st to 27th, 27th to 5th, 30th to 9th.
Look also at where the money was spent. He didn't load up on the Mids that were overpriced, and had little chance of holding their value, let alone increasing it.
Mids - Ablett (2), Selwood (15), Watson (27), Montagna (46)
Fwd/Mids - Pavlich (28), Martin (50), Sidebottom (131), Dangerfield (165)
Def/Mids - Goddard (23), Deledio (30)
Ruck - Mumford (13)
Fwd - Franklin (16)
He started with versatilty and value.

A quick look at the players he chose from the top 50, and maybe his reasoning behind choosing them.

(2011 ranking) Player - games played/2011 ave - gp/2010 ave - gp/2009 ave - gp/2008 ave

(2) Ablett - 20/127.10 - 21/129.86 - 19/140.11 - 22/114.18
Purpose picked Captain, cost less than Pendles. Maybe thought many would go Pendles over Ablett in 2012. Recapturing his 2009 form not out of the question

(13) Mumford - 17/112.59 - 19/92.38 - 18/53.22 - DNP
Growing stronger every season. Slight injury query having missed games each year. Appears to be on an upward curve, but last years average would keep him in the top 2 or 3 Rucks in 2012.

(15) Selwood - 17/111.53 - 21/117.81 - 22/110.86 - 18/77.33
Injury/Suspension affected his 2011. Looked to be on an upward path from 2010, so price for 2012 appears to be a little under what it might have been.

(16) Franklin - 19/110.79 - 17/107.47 - 21/87.86 - 20/91.35
He is starting to take games by the throat more. If his consistency takes step with his maturity could go large in 2012.

(23) Goddard - 22/107.86 - 21/130.24 - 21/115.52 - 19/87.95
Ranked number 1 in 2010, and fell to 23 last year. Only needs to get back to his 2009 average of 115 to be a great buy.

(27) Watson - 16/106.00 - 21/106.95 - 21/101.86 - 19/87.95
Had an injury plagued mid-season where he only averaged 76. Without this he would have averaged 116 for the season instead of 106. Appears still be on an upward path, and undervalued due to injury.

(28) Pavlich - 21/105.70 - 21/99.33 - 19/99.58 - DNP - (2007 22/115.64)
Hope that he might find some 2007 form. Will finish as a good or top 10 Fwd if he repeats his last 3 years form.

(30) Deledio - 22/104.91 - 22/101.91 - 22/103.41 - 19/91.47
Very consistent, and doesn't miss games. Has the potential to play more mid this year, and improve his ranking/ave.

(46) Montagna - 20/100.70 - 22/114.82 - 21/125.81 - 21/102.38
Doesn't miss games. Only has to recapture 2010 form/ave to be a great buy. 2009 form would be a bonus.

(50) Martin - 22/98.91 - 21/77.90
Looks like a star in the making. Could really take off in 2012

Even though I am putting words in chewy's mouth, I think it can be safely stated, that every player was chosen with either a history of better scores than they achieved in 2011, or the potential to take the next step. No players were taken just hoping/expecting they will repeat their 2011. Buying more than 1 or 2 players with the thought/intention they will repeat their 2012 would seem to be wasteful. Choosing players at the height of their SC price is definitely wasteful, unless they are purpose selected to be a Captain. Having 2 of these might be ok, having more seems to be a big risk.
It's all about risk/reward and bang for your buck!

*chewy, if you're out there and see this, I was wondering if you'd comment on my guesses as to your thoughts? Or tell us what your thoughts behind a couple of them were. Did you deliberately avoid the high priced players early on?


Last edited by Rowsus; 26-11-2012 at 12:25 AM.


Where goin' to need a bigger boat...

 

[Rowsus]

In the analysis that follows I am using the following definitions:
Premium - a player whose average score per round is good enough to have him in the top 8 or 9, or 4 or 5 with Rucks, in their position.
Gun - a player who averages below a premium, but is consistent and reliably plays 20 or more games each season. His total will pass a premium who only plays 17 or 18 games.
Examples -
Buddy Franklin is a premium. He averaged 115/game last year in his 16 games.
Boomer Harvey is a gun. He averaged 96/game last year in his 22 games.
Franklin finished 3rd on averages for FWD's behind (now ex)DPP's Beams and Dangerfield, but he finished 19th for total points for FWD's.
Harvey finished 7th on total points for all FWD's, but he finished 17th on averages for FWD's.
It is important to have both Premiums AND Guns in your side. Premiums give your score/team that WOW factor. Guns keep your score ticking over, even when the Premiums are missing the 5 or 6 games they can miss every year.
Where you have a player achieve both a top 8 or 9 finish in averages and points, they can probably be considered Super Premiums in their position for that year.
Young Speculation players - are players you pick that are coming into their 2nd - 4th season, that you are hoping/expecting to improve their score with their experience now kicking in. You are not necessarily looking for them to achieve Premium, or even Gun status, just to be a good return on the money spent. Though obviously the more you pay for them, the higher the hopes you have, and you might be hoping they achieve premium/gun status.
Returners - players returning from injury, or time away from the game, and are at bargain prices. The same aim and philosophy as Young Speculation players. Returners can also be players that are suspected to have carried an injury through most of a season, causing their average to drop below what their history shows.

In 2012 the following players achieved Super Premium status in their positions. I will exclude the players that have lost DPP and didn't achieve it in their new position. Removing them from their old DPP position (ie removing Danger and Beams from FWD calculations). I will also add in the new DPP's.

FWD's: Nicnat (3rd points, 2nd ave), Cox (1st points, 3rd ave), Pavlich (2nd points, 4th ave), Roughhead (7th points, 5th ave) - Ryder didn't score enough points, though his average was good.
RUCK's: Nicnat (3rd points, 1st ave), Maric (2nd points, 2nd ave), Cox (1st points, 3rd ave), Roughhead (5th points, 5th ave).
MID's: Ablett (1st points, 1st ave), Beams (5th points, 4th ave), Watson (2nd points, 5th ave), Kennedy (3rd points, 6th ave), Dangerfield (4th points, 7th ave), Cotchin (6th points, 9th ave).
DEF's: Goddard (2nd points, 1st ave), Waters (8th points, 3rd ave), Scotland (1st points, 4th ave), Enright (5th points, 6th ave) Hurn (3rd points, 8th ave).

I intend to analyse the starting teams of as many winners as I can.
It is important to note, that every year sees rule changes, pricing changes, and even scoring changes, so when comparing sides from different seasons it is important to keep this in mind.
The best example of this is when you compare Jay's 2011 starting line up, with Chewy's 2012. In 2011 there were 33 players in your team, 10% more than other years. To compensate for this, the "MagicNumber" was dropped by 10% at the start of the year, effectively dropping every players price 10%. Now what you might not realise is, this is the same as leaving the magic Number the same, and giving everyone an extra 10% ($1,000,000) to spend, to compensate for the extra picks. What you will see in the comparisom, is that smart coaches could really get extra value from these cheaper players. Look at it in terms of an extra $mill, instead of cheaper players. Say you pick 3 rookies as your "extra" 3 players. They might cost you around $320,000 in total, leaving you an extra $680,000 to pick your normal, regular 30 player team! Imagine what you could do with that! Upgrade a couple of mid-priced guns to premiums or super premiums? That is why it hard to compare starting teams of the winners each year, but having said that, I'll give it a shot!

 

[Rowsus]

Chewy started with:
Super Premiums/Premiums - 7 (Ablett, Mumford, Selwood, Franklin, Goddard, Pavlich, Delidio)
Guns - 2 (Watson, Montagna)
Young Speculations - 4 (Martin, Sidebottom, Dangerfield, Parker L)
Returners - 5 (Grimes, McIntosh, Lake, Porplyzia, Clarke M)
Rookies - 12 (4 Higher priced rookies, 7 average priced rookies, and 1 lowest priced rookie (ie rookie listed))

If you want to simplify the numbers, he had 9 Premiums/Guns, 9 Midprices/Bargains, 12 rookies.
He kicked goals with 7 out of 9 of his Premium/Guns, and was quick to rectify the 2 he got wrong - Mumford and Montagna.
His 9 Mid/Bargains all returned him something on his money to some extent, except for maybe Martin. Parker and McIntosh were traded out, but made him some good dollars while in the team. Lake and Porplyzia played their part early, and became back up on the bench. Clarke filled his role, and was traded out after giving points and money. Sidebottom, Dangerfield and Grimes held their places in his 22 quite well.

Certainly not a "Guns and Rookies" approach. As predicted by Jay in his pre-season articles, this years winner played a GMR game, not a GNR game. That is, a Guns Mids and Rookies, not just Guns and Rookies. Jay even pointed us in the direction of Lake, Porplyzia, Clarke and pointed out McIntosh was really underpriced, but also a huge injury risk. For those of you that haven't done it, I suggest you re-read some of Jays preseason articles from 2012. While the game has changed, a lot of the principles haven't!

No doubt good trading was a large part of Chewy's win, but good value for money early on set him on the right course. He was aggressive with his trading, just as Jay was in 2011. He used 22 trades by round 15, and 23 by round 16, leaving him 1 for the last 7 rounds.

 

[Rowsus]

Doing a similar analysis on Jays starting team in 2011, as I did on Chewys, we can see:

Player (2010 ranking) - (2011 ranking) - rankings are based on ave/game. The players in red did not finish the season in Jays team.
Swan - (3) - (4)
Judd - (4) - (7)
Montagna - (9) - (44)
Sandilands - (10) - (17)
Pendlebury - (14) - (1)
Riewoldt - (15) - (105)
Franklin - (17) - (16)
Gibbs - (24) - (32)
Deledio - (29) - (30)
Pavlich - (37) - (28)
Enright - (43) - (54)
Goodes - (52) - (21)
Newman - (61) - (51)
O'Keefe - (75) - (34)
Cox - (86) - (3)

Once again we see the years winner shopping for value pre-season.
4 picks in the top 10 most expensive players - remembering they were 10% cheaper in 2011 (read above)
7 picks in the top 20.
9 picks in the top 30.
15 picks in the top 100.

More importantly, out of those 15 picks only Riewoldt 15th to 105th, and Montagna 9th to 44th, showed dramatic drops from their previous seasons ratings.

Jay seemed to be targetting "Fallen Premiums"
Newman had averaged 100 and 99 in 2008 and 2009, and fell to 92 in 2010. (ave 99 in 2011)
Cox had averaged 101, 98, 111 in the 3 seasons before he averaged 88 in 2010. (ave 122 in 2011)
Goodes had averaged 105, 106, 114 in the 3 seasons before he averaged 94 in 2010. (ave 108 in 2011)
O'Keefe had averaged 96, 104, 108 in the 3 seasons before he averaged 90 in 2010. (ave 103 in 2011)
Pavlich had averaged 116, 110, 100 in the 3 seasons before he averaged 99 in 2010. (ave 106 in 2011)

5 Premiums/Guns that in 2010 had scored 7% - 20% lower than they had in recent history. Meaning they were coming into 2011 around 16% - 28% lower in price than they had in previous seasons (includes 10% discount every player received in 2011 for teams having 33 players)

 

[Rowsus]

Jay started with:
Super Premiums/Premiums - 8 (Delidio, Enright, Swan, Judd, Montagna, Sandilands, Franklin, Riewoldt N)
Guns - 6 (Gibbs, Newman, Pendlebury, Goodes, O'Keefe, Pavlich)
Young Speculation - 2 (Astbury, O'Brien)
Returners - 4 (Cox, Petrie, Lower, Harris)
Rookies - 13

Simplifying the numbers, Jay started with 14 Guns/Premiums, 6 MidPrices/Bargains and 13 Rookies. Given Jay had effectively 10% more to spend than Chewy after the discount to fit 33 players in, this compares on a similar basis to Chewy's 9/9/12 break-up. I won't analyse Jay's team too much, as he has done that himself in previous articles.

Once again, not a true Guns 'n' Rookies approach. Jay got great value out of his pre-season dollars, utilised the discount on players for the year, and traded extremely well and agressively. He is critical of his starting team, but really, when you look at where he spent the money, only Montagna and Riewoldt failed to return the dollars spent in his 15 most expensive players. 2 of his 6 YS and RET players were incredibly good picks (Petrie and Cox), but the other 4 failed. If you can be successful with 13 out of 15 of your top 15 picks, you are off to a strong start! Jay used 22 of his 24 trades by round 14, leaving him 2 trades for the last 8 rounds. Sounds a lot like Chewy!

 

[Rowsus]

I will analyse Blue Thunders team (winner in 2010) later today. It will probably not be posted until around midnight though.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

I will analyse Blue Thunders team (winner in 2010) later today. It will probably not be posted until around midnight though.

Cool! Thanks for looking into Rowsus. Will be interesting... Having only followed it closely this season.. one thing I have found out from this site is just about every year has a difference in the set up for each season...
In Jay's winning year 2011, you could have 3 on the bench in a few positions... and byes for the first time with only 17 AFL teams.for first time
. year 2012.. the first season of multi byes. rookie choice feast with new expansion clubs.. 3 trades each of those weeks and 24 in total.. also back to only 2 on bench... in 2013 many more trades,, rolling lock out and once again different set up with byes.... I guess 2010 was different again.. no byes then.. less trades.. not the same number on bench as 2011.... Each year different in these 3 seasons just past and new one yet to come. I'm going to keep that in mind when looking at stats and history.. but the common factors I'm looking forward to seeing what each winner has in common.. I suspect it will be good value for money starting team and good trading.

 

[Rowsus]

Looking at Blue Thunders team in 2010. Interestingly when interviewed after the season he claimed to have gone in with a Guns and Rookies approach. As we will see, he did concentrate his buying a bit higher up the price list than Chewy and Jay, but there is no way I'd call it a G'n'R approach.
Player - (2009 ave/game ranking) - (2010 ave/game ranking) players in red did not finish the season in his team
Ablett - (1) - (2)
Goddard - (5) - (1)
Chapman - (6) - (10)
Riewoldt N - (7) - (15)
O'Keefe - (15) - (77)
Selwood - (18) - (8)
Goodwin - (20) - (56)
Sandilands - (27) - (15)
Enright - (30) - (47)
Pavlich - (32) - (33)
Hodge - (79) - (7)

His numbers are very similar to Chewy and Jay, though a little more compressed towards the top.
4 picks in the top 10 most expensive player. - the only winning coach in the last 3 years to have started with the most expensive player!
7 picks in the top 20
9 picks in the top 30
10 picks in the top 50
11 picks in the top 100

9 of his 11 top picks would be considered very good, or at least passable. 2 would seem to have let him down, O'Keefe fell from 15th to 77th, and Goodwin fell from 20th to 56th. The fall from 20th to 56th wouldn't seem disasterous, but not what you are looking for from your 7th most expensive player.
Where Blue Thunders "I decided to go with a premium/rookie strategy" falls apart, is he actually started with EIGHT Returning players!!!

Franklin - Buddy had a then career high 22 games at 107 in 2008, and fell to a low 21 games at 88 in 2009. Carrying an injury? not sure, but still qualifies as a potential Returner
Malceski - had a career high 22 games at 101 in 2007, only manged 9 games at 66 in 2008, and 12 games at 52 in 2009. He was about half his career high price in the preseason of 2010.
Waters - Prior to 2010 his career high was 19 games at 83 in 2007. He was injured in 2008 playing only 8 games at 56, before missing the whole of 2009.
Maguire - Gooses injury problems are well documented. After playing just 4 games at 30/game in 2008, he missed the whole 2009 season. He was rookie priced in 2010.
Ball - Luke had a career high 22 games at 116.1 in 2005, in 2008 he averaged 100, and in 2009 fell to an injury carrying affected 17 games at 86.
Hille - Had a career high 20 games at 88 in 2008, before only playing 5 games at 59 in 2009
Hall - Barry had a career high 22 games at 131.8 in 2005, in 2009 he played only 11 games at 69 - he was about half his 2006 price in the preseason of 2010.
Medhurst - Was a bit of mystery pick, and Blue Thunder even conceded "what was I thinking?!". Medhurst was a 60pt/game player for many injury plagued years. In 2008 he finally managed more than 14 games for the first time in 3 years. He had a career high 22 games at 88, before falling to 16 games at 60 in 2009.

Only Buddy (17 games at 108) and Malceski (22 games at 96) finished the year in Blue Thunders team, and were the only two of those 8 he'd be happy with. 8 speculative, returning midpricers, for two success stories, and Blue Thunder won the whole shooting match! It says two things - 1 it can be done! 2 - great trading (mostly, as we will see!)

 

[Rowsus]

Blue Thunder started with:
Super Premiums/Premiums - 8 (Goddard, Goodwin, Enright, Ablett, Sandilands, O'Keefe, Chapman, Riewoldt)
Guns - 3 (Hodge, Selwood, Pavlich)
Young Speculation - 1 (Warnock M)
Returners - 8 (see above)
Rookies - 10

Simplifying the numbers, Blue Thunder started with 11 Premiums/Guns, 9 Midprice/Bargains and 10 Rookies
There is only one way to describe Blue Thunders trading in 2010 - To quote my friend IDIG, he went "Balls out" in an all or nothing approach. The other thing you'd say about his trading was, he was prepared to admit his mistakes, and then fix them. Round 3 he traded out Hall and Medhurst, and brought in J Brown, and Rockliff on the bubble. Excluding round 7 (no trades), he made 2 trades nearly every week between rounds 3 and 11. J Brown was traded out again in round 6 (injury, I think, but he did play 16 games in 2010). P Davis was brought in round 6, and dumped again in round 8. Webberley was brought in round 9, and was out again in round 13 having only played 3 games in his squad (he missed round 12), and still having plenty of time before he mooed properly. Riewoldt N was traded out in round 4, and back in round 18.
Blue Thunder had used 15 of his 20 trades by round 11, 17 by round 13, and 18 by round 15. This left him 2 trades for the last 7 rounds, and both were used by round 18.
He seemed to make a lot of selection mistakes. 8 of his 20 non-rookie players turned out to be no good (compared to Jay's 6 out of 20 non-rookies, and Chewy's 5 out of 18 non-rookies). He also botched a couple of trades. He was very successful at his other trades though, returning Riewoldt into his side after he had 2 games back from a 12 week injury, and he went nuts with big scores. Brought in Rockliff, Swan, Judd, Cox and Goodes in well timed trades.
Blue Thunder is a lesson in showing us, you can make mistakes in both trading and selections, and still recover.

 

[Rowsus]

[table="width: 700, align: center"]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Chewy[/td]
[td]Impromptu[/td]
[td]Blue Th[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 5's[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 10's[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 20's[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]7[/td]
[td]7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 30's[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 50's[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 100's[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td]15[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Prem/Guns[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]14[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Mid/Barg[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Rookies[/td]
[td]12[/td]
[td]13[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]non-rookie fails[/td]
[td]5/18[/td]
[td]6/20[/td]
[td]8/20[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Trades at r13[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Trades at r14[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Trades at r15[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Trades at r16[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

So looking for similarities, they all had Midpricers/Bargains/Returning players, and not just 1, 2 or 3.
When they selected their Premiums/Guns they were very selective. Most of the players they selected in those catagories carried or justified their prices when selected. (As shown by where they finished in the average/game ranking when selected, and where they finished on the average/game ranking in the coming season)
All of them waited until round 3 trade, then traded agressively. Early trades were used to correct mistakes, and bring in Rookies on the bubble.
They all made mistakes, but then fixed them quickly and decisively. They didn't wait, and hope the mistake would fix itself.
G'n'R is not the only path to success. Having great value Returners and Young players is a big key. You can even get a lot them wrong, and still win (Blue Thunder). There were not many instances where they paid top dollar for premiums who went on to drop a lot in value. There is the key. If you start with too many overpriced players, you are way behind those Coaches that have gotten good value out of their dollars. It's just simple math. If your top 10 most expensive players cost $5mill and are returning 1000 points total per game, how can you compete with a Coach who spent $4.5mill and is returning 1000 points total per game? His top 10 are returning the same points as yours, but he has an extra $500,000 working in other spots on the ground. You are sunk!
Shop wisely. Shop for value. Shop with intention. Look for the players that have the opportunity to improve on last years average. If you have a team full of players scoring at last years average, unless your Rookies are so much better than everyone elses, you will find you are going backwards at 100 to 200 points/week!

 

[Courtesans]

"Shop wisely. Shop for value. Shop with intention. Look for the players that have the opportunity to improve on last years average. If you have a team full of players scoring at last years average, unless your Rookies are so much better than everyone elses, you will find you are going backwards at 100 to 200 points/week!"

Great stuff Rowsus!

 

[BC]

Hmmmm the changing of the guard...
First was Sampras to federer
Now it's GnR's to GmR's lol,
Basically getting every bit of value for your 10mill
Not getting sucked in for the big names but when a player $200k cheaper, due to injury ect... may give u the same output in points

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Hmmmm the changing of the guard...
First was Sampras to federer
Now it's GnR's to GmR's lol,
Basically getting every bit of value for your 10mill
Not getting sucked in for the big names but when a player $200k cheaper, due to injury ect... may give u the same output in points

I think there is no doubt, getting every bit of value you can for your 10 million is the approach will all got to go in with when picking our teams. However, you only have to do a better job than others relatively... better than a few other hundred thousand entrants...lol... Rowsus showed with 2010 winner in particular there were more than just one or two transactions the winner stuffed up on but that team still did better than other entrants.

The changing of the guard so to speak is Supercoach has gone from 20 trades in past to 30 next year...That is a big change....8 midfielders instead of 6....structural change and been constant changes each year to find ways of coaches to deal with byes... now just simply going to be best 18 out of squads for those 3 weeks... .BUT.. the most fundamental change of the guard will be this... no longer can have the big pre-round Friday lock in team and then relax and see how teams go for weekend... this is cultural change where we tinker with our team as AFL games progressively get played from Friday night to Sunday evening...sadly, I think it ruins the fun element of enjoying the weekend without needing to adjust anything...you will need to MANAGE your team ALL weekend.. we will need to play the game all weekend to keep up or risk falling behind other coaches getting the edge on clever last minute tinkering to take advantage of loopholes with captaincy and vice captain nominations and even possibility of trades on the weekend.. the day of PICKING my team on Friday evening are GONE... the changing of guard is we manage our team ALL weekend :-(...

If it turns out too much time needed to have an edge then I probably will stop playing it after next season.
Will see how it goes in 2013 and if I feel it has a fun future.. it may well be the changing of guard in fantasy football culture and more people start discovering the merits and fun of playing other forms of AFL fantasy football. For me it won't be a difficult adjustment as 2012 was my 1st season of playing Supercoach properly. I'll give it another go for the new season and see if it still is enough fun to continue to invest time in.

 

[BC]

Yer I agree, I used to like the fact after Friday 7.30 pm the feet go up and u can enjoy the week end footy, look at live sc scores here and there, now it seems its a full time commitment over the weekend which is not a totally bad thing but might end up doing my head in a lil lol

 

[BC]

picking the mid pricers that cost below 400k that can turn to premiums or at worst can score 85+and keep ur team ticking over with decent scores each week and at the same time going up in value is the key

ATM: pederson, grey for mine, leCras, ball just but purely on the 85+ factor and upgrade when he reaches his b/e

who's catching ur eye??

 

[OzRulesFootball]

picking the mid pricers that cost below 400k that can turn to premiums or at worst can score 85+and keep ur team ticking over with decent scores each week and at the same time going up in value is the key

who's catching ur eye??

I somewhat agree with you but found in Supercoach you are really only looking at premiums scoring above 100ppg or rookies less than 150K that give you cash well over 150K profit input as quickly as possible when you trade them so you can upgrade and get as many 100ppg premiums into your 22 before other coaches do.

This was first season I got into Supercoach and last year I picked a player of your description
Chis Masten was 311 K at start of season. I expected he was ready to develop into a regular senior player at Eagles and underpriced. I was right...played 22 games.. scored 1968 SC points and averaged 89.45 which is just over your 85 ppg suggestion. His price increased over 100 K in the year and a consistent midfielder. Only problem was as I become used to SC I realized with just 6 mids you ended up needing your mids to average well over 100 and despite my good eye to see his value the problem was that his average is not considered a premium and I traded with him round 13 when he was 426 K so he had helped out early in season as regular decent player but I had to use a trade... to get team closer to the SC ideal of 6 mids all averaging between 110 to 135 ppg by about that stage of season. I found out even though my eye was good to spot him to be a player he was of no fair dinkum edge for me in SC style of fantasy footy. I needed to be going for a rookie that was 150 K or less or a Dangerfield jumping in average to well and above 100ppg (I actually did have him too, just needed more of his type...lol )but I got caught in the middle with Masten.... I know now.. spotting players like him is great for draft style fantasy footy but of no real use for SC and DT fantasy footy where we are all just competing to get best 22 premiums out of the league of 800 odd players.

 

[BC]

I somewhat agree with you but found in Supercoach you are really only looking at premiums scoring above 100ppg or rookies less than 150K that give you cash well over 150K profit input as quickly as possible when you trade them so you can upgrade and get as many 100ppg premiums into your 22 before other coaches do.

This was first season I got into Supercoach and last year I picked a player of your description
Chis Masten was 311 K at start of season. I expected he was ready to develop into a regular senior player at Eagles and underpriced. I was right...played 22 games.. scored 1968 SC points and averaged 89.45 which is just over your 85 ppg suggestion. His price increased over 100 K in the year and a consistent midfielder. Only problem was as I become used to SC I realized with just 6 mids you ended up needing your mids to average well over 100 and despite my good eye to see his value the problem was that his average is not considered a premium and I traded with him round 13 when he was 426 K so he had helped out early in season as regular decent player but I had to use a trade... to get team closer to the SC ideal of 6 mids all averaging between 110 to 135 ppg by about that stage of season. I found out even though my eye was good to spot him to be a player he was of no fair dinkum edge for me in SC style of fantasy footy. I needed to be going for a rookie that was 150 K or less or a Dangerfield jumping in average to well and above 100ppg (I actually did have him too, just needed more of his type...lol )but I got caught in the middle with Masten.... I know now.. spotting players like him is great for draft style fantasy footy but of no real use for SC and DT fantasy footy where we are all just competing to get best 22 premiums out of the league of 800 odd players.

Fair call, I was thinking more in faward line, leCrass, Silvia, rocky all underpriced then backs: broughton underpriced, hartlett a breakout season maybe could mean extra cash for 4 premiums in the mid and the likes of a Mundy or fyfe as a 5 mid then rookies to fill the rest in the mids.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Well.. I will most likely be picking all of LeCras, Sylvia and Rockliff. .. so will a Zillion other SC coaches... ;-( no edge there....
I will treat LeCras as if picking a rookie

 

[mutleyblue]

Hey Rowsus Great analysis on my "Bluethunder" lucky win in 2010 and what I meant to say when interviewed was I went with a combination of guns rookies and rookie priced cheap injury returning players with my starting side that year.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus Great analysis on my "Bluethunder" lucky win in 2010 and what I meant to say when interviewed was I went with a combination of guns rookies and rookie priced cheap injury returning players with my starting side that year.

Great to have you on board, Blue.
Thanks for the wrap. I wondered if you visited here when I was writing your season up.
If you have room, we'd love to have you in one of our leagues.
WOW, wouldn't that be a boast! The last 3 winners of Supercoach, all in the one league??!!!

.....does anyone know where we can find Buster Gonad? Maybe we can get a league with the last FOUR winners??!!!