Competitions 2024 Spring Horse Racing Championships
- Thread starter Ironhawk
- Start date
I've added your tips in for races 6-10.
With late tips, people can be tactical based on everyone else's tips, but as long as it is not a regular thing, I'm willing to accept late picks at this point of the competition. I probably won't later in the comp if someone does it in the last few race days, where it can be a tactical decision to do this after seeing who your competitors have picked.
Obviously I can't accept entries for races that have already been ran.
With late tips, people can be tactical based on everyone else's tips, but as long as it is not a regular thing, I'm willing to accept late picks at this point of the competition. I probably won't later in the comp if someone does it in the last few race days, where it can be a tactical decision to do this after seeing who your competitors have picked.
Obviously I can't accept entries for races that have already been ran.
Previous Results:
Beg2Differ: 41.5
THCLT: 35
toxic: 29
KLo30: 27.5
tso: 26.5
kennychao: 22.5
Rowsus: 21.5
Ironhawk: 20
Professor: 15
chels: 9
Today's results:
KLo30 - 28
toxic - 24.5
chels - 17
Professor - 15
tso - 13
THCLT - 11
Beg2Differ - 11
Rowsus - 9.5
Ironhawk - 7
kennychao - 5
Leaderboard:
KLo30: 55.5
toxic: 53.5
Beg2Differ: 52.5
THCLT: 46
tso: 39.5
Rowsus: 31
Professor: 30
kennychao: 27.5
Ironhawk: 27
chels: 26
Beg2Differ: 41.5
THCLT: 35
toxic: 29
KLo30: 27.5
tso: 26.5
kennychao: 22.5
Rowsus: 21.5
Ironhawk: 20
Professor: 15
chels: 9
Today's results:
KLo30 - 28
toxic - 24.5
chels - 17
Professor - 15
tso - 13
THCLT - 11
Beg2Differ - 11
Rowsus - 9.5
Ironhawk - 7
kennychao - 5
Leaderboard:
KLo30: 55.5
toxic: 53.5
Beg2Differ: 52.5
THCLT: 46
tso: 39.5
Rowsus: 31
Professor: 30
kennychao: 27.5
Ironhawk: 27
chels: 26
I was originally planning to split the races over Melbourne and Sydney evenly for Saturday, however the Melbourne event seems to have much higher quality races.
Races to tip this week:
Moonee Valley: Races 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Randwick: Races 7, 8, 9
Fields and associated points will be posted tomorrow night, but I know some of you like to get in early, so thought I would confirm the races to tip.
Races to tip this week:
Moonee Valley: Races 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Randwick: Races 7, 8, 9
Fields and associated points will be posted tomorrow night, but I know some of you like to get in early, so thought I would confirm the races to tip.
This is slightly off topic but perhaps you can indulge me.* I cannot see Romantic Warrior not finishing in the first three (barring injury). I guess this is directed at @Rowsus but I have posted here rather than pm'd because others might be interested. Or might just want to laugh at my stupidity.
Currently he is $3.80 and $1,70 - statistically / historically is their a "correct" relationship between the two prices. Are they currently in "balance". Further, given my belief in the outcome, what is the best way to back him? Fixed odds? If so, is their an optimal time to punt? Quinellas or some other exotic? Doubles with Imperatriz?
I intend to shy away from the world pool as HK money may well dominate and hence drive down price. Better odds may be available in a localised market. Is this being naive? As an Economist I have faith in efficient markets, but is this an informed market? So many questions Row, just reply to those you feel comfortable with.
* Hope this does not contravene any of the site's posting guidelines.
Currently he is $3.80 and $1,70 - statistically / historically is their a "correct" relationship between the two prices. Are they currently in "balance". Further, given my belief in the outcome, what is the best way to back him? Fixed odds? If so, is their an optimal time to punt? Quinellas or some other exotic? Doubles with Imperatriz?
I intend to shy away from the world pool as HK money may well dominate and hence drive down price. Better odds may be available in a localised market. Is this being naive? As an Economist I have faith in efficient markets, but is this an informed market? So many questions Row, just reply to those you feel comfortable with.
* Hope this does not contravene any of the site's posting guidelines.
FYI - my quick 2min summary
Fangirrl - huge last start, can win if it gets cover in running
3yr olds all have a chance
Alligator Blood - true WFA horse, can lead and win (Zaaki tactics will dictate)
Mr Brightside - needs a soft 5 or worse
Gold T - Turnbull GT can win, but is he set for this or Melb Cup?
Fangirrl - huge last start, can win if it gets cover in running
3yr olds all have a chance
Alligator Blood - true WFA horse, can lead and win (Zaaki tactics will dictate)
Mr Brightside - needs a soft 5 or worse
Gold T - Turnbull GT can win, but is he set for this or Melb Cup?
Historically, as long there are at least 8 runners, and the fav is not too short, then place odds are 1/4 of win odds, so $3.80/$1.70 is spot on.
If your opinion is that strong, and mine is not dissimilar, then backing him with someone offering a bet return is the best method. ie. Run 2nd or 3rd, and get your stake back as a free bet.
As to possibly tying him in, in a double or Quin, sometimes I think we can complicate things. If you like him, just back him. Maybe use 80% of your stake straight out, then 20% on some exotics.
There is nothing worse, than liking a horse that much, having him win, and you get nothing, because you got greedy!
If your opinion is that strong, and mine is not dissimilar, then backing him with someone offering a bet return is the best method. ie. Run 2nd or 3rd, and get your stake back as a free bet.
As to possibly tying him in, in a double or Quin, sometimes I think we can complicate things. If you like him, just back him. Maybe use 80% of your stake straight out, then 20% on some exotics.
There is nothing worse, than liking a horse that much, having him win, and you get nothing, because you got greedy!
Interesting, In Australia they used to call that Concession Betting,
$10 on at $1.70 gets back $17
$7 on at $3.80 gets back $26.60
$17 bet, $43.60 back if it wins, money back if it places.
Effective odds $2.56 (Concession)
Betting with a bet return is slightly in front. You need to factor in, that you lose a full betting point, when betting with a bonus bet.
$10 on at $1.70 gets back $17
$7 on at $3.80 gets back $26.60
$17 bet, $43.60 back if it wins, money back if it places.
Effective odds $2.56 (Concession)
Betting with a bet return is slightly in front. You need to factor in, that you lose a full betting point, when betting with a bonus bet.
