Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread
- Thread starter MC's Mix
- Start date
One potential upside of this approach is some of the price rises/drops will be staggered instead of all at one time. Few of the teams with the early by can be grabbed post bye without having gone up in price (thinking the round 2/3 bye teams). The downside is having to potentially grab someone with a round 5/6 bye before they shoot up in price but with a bye still to come..
This is something that I've been trying to get my head around, meaning at what point is a value premo disregarded?
I'm looking at starting Grundy and Gawn because I think that their value outweighs the points lost due to their early byes. I think that those 2 are inside the top 4 rucks in the comp with both of them being a good chance to be in the top 2.
Looking at Grundy first, is 115PPG a possibility? Maybe, so I'll use that number. He misses rnd 5 which means the 19th score comes on field (assuming he's the only bye player in the team for that rnd) I'd think that score would be around 70 so 45-55 pts lost. But I've saved $160k on having him over Marshall to be spent somewhere else which could generate 10-15PPG which matches or even beats the loss of pts because of his bye.
Gawn is pretty much in the same boat if comparing starting him as opposed to English, there's a $130k saving there and if combined with Grundy's saving then that's nearly $300k, effectively adding another value premo pick over a rookie on field. There's an added bonus with that value pick as their score would count inside the best 18 scores over the 4 bye rounds.
*Edit............Grawndy could each be upgraded (if deemed necessary) before their byes thereby negating the loss of points.
The reverse of the above scenarios I think applies to the high value premos that have an early bye. Using Daicos as an example, I've not started him and gone for Young instead, the savings gave me Zilliams on field over a bench player like Burgiel (also pushing Gibcus to the bench). Those 2 over Daicos and Burgiel should add more points on field over the first 5 rnds, with again the added bonus of Zilliams scores being inside the best 18 for 3 of the early byes. Daicos also has the Finn matchup in rnd 4 which would tip the scales further, also making him a prime upgrade target in rnd 8
I'm looking at starting Grundy and Gawn because I think that their value outweighs the points lost due to their early byes. I think that those 2 are inside the top 4 rucks in the comp with both of them being a good chance to be in the top 2.
Looking at Grundy first, is 115PPG a possibility? Maybe, so I'll use that number. He misses rnd 5 which means the 19th score comes on field (assuming he's the only bye player in the team for that rnd) I'd think that score would be around 70 so 45-55 pts lost. But I've saved $160k on having him over Marshall to be spent somewhere else which could generate 10-15PPG which matches or even beats the loss of pts because of his bye.
Gawn is pretty much in the same boat if comparing starting him as opposed to English, there's a $130k saving there and if combined with Grundy's saving then that's nearly $300k, effectively adding another value premo pick over a rookie on field. There's an added bonus with that value pick as their score would count inside the best 18 scores over the 4 bye rounds.
*Edit............Grawndy could each be upgraded (if deemed necessary) before their byes thereby negating the loss of points.
The reverse of the above scenarios I think applies to the high value premos that have an early bye. Using Daicos as an example, I've not started him and gone for Young instead, the savings gave me Zilliams on field over a bench player like Burgiel (also pushing Gibcus to the bench). Those 2 over Daicos and Burgiel should add more points on field over the first 5 rnds, with again the added bonus of Zilliams scores being inside the best 18 for 3 of the early byes. Daicos also has the Finn matchup in rnd 4 which would tip the scales further, also making him a prime upgrade target in rnd 8
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It's pretty early I know, but do any Hawks supporters on here @randomcliche @Ironhawk have a read on what's going on with the backline? I've read that Amon is training with the backs, if he's one of the outlet distributors then I can see him going 100+ which puts him in Defence keeper territory. If he does play back then does that have a negative impact on Sicily's output? Given that the KPD stocks are thin with Blanck and Frost, would it mean that Sicily is able to concentrate more on being that lockdown defender?
Not really. It's a tough team to pick a starting line up for.
I expect Amon to rotate between half back and wing. Can see D’Ambrosio playing back too. If Hardwick does move forward this year where he has been training, there would need to be someone fill that spot and I would say these two are the most likely.
Scrimshaw, Blanck, Frost, Impey, Sicily, Jiath, Grainger-Barras, Weddle all likely to spend a lot of time in defence, Mitchell and Serong are a chance for games. I've probably forgotten some in that list too.
I expect Amon to rotate between half back and wing. Can see D’Ambrosio playing back too. If Hardwick does move forward this year where he has been training, there would need to be someone fill that spot and I would say these two are the most likely.
Scrimshaw, Blanck, Frost, Impey, Sicily, Jiath, Grainger-Barras, Weddle all likely to spend a lot of time in defence, Mitchell and Serong are a chance for games. I've probably forgotten some in that list too.
