Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

[Leroy]

This is the most comprehensive explanation of the SC scoring system I have ever read, amazing research done by this guy, well worth a read :-

https://jaidenpopowski.github.io/supercoach_stat_values.html

That's extraordinary research.
We should invite him to join the site

From that stats analysis, the contested knock on scores more than a long kick to advantage (!?). That seems bonkers but probably explains how when guys like Bont just get involved by tapping the ball to team-mates their scores just rocket along.

 

[Post Nut Clarity]

Nick Daicos vs No Daicos

I’m making a conscious effort to avoid starting round zero premiums when viable and am comfortable starting Gawn, Grundy & Flanders and giving the others a miss.

Daicos is the only one I’m going back and forth on, so I’d like to hear people’s thoughts on him.

I’m leaning towards not starting him and his round 4 match up of Hawthorn is why. Let’s say he’s averaging 120 after 3 rounds, gets tagged by McGinness in round 4 and scores 80. He’ll go into his bye with an average of 110 and then be subbed out for a rookie who scores 60 for example, bringing the total points come round 5 to 500.

I’d like to think any premium you select in place of him should be averaging 110 or so by round 5 meaning they’re 50 points better off.

Just want to know everyone else’s thoughts on Daicos as he’s the only player I seem to be jumping back and fourth on, primarily because I know I’ll need to get him in pretty early in the season to be competitive.

 

[Diabolical]

Nick Daicos vs No Daicos

I’m making a conscious effort to avoid starting round zero premiums when viable and am comfortable starting Gawn, Grundy & Flanders and giving the others a miss.

Daicos is the only one I’m going back and forth on, so I’d like to hear people’s thoughts on him.

I’m leaning towards not starting him and his round 4 match up of Hawthorn is why. Let’s say he’s averaging 120 after 3 rounds, gets tagged by McGinness in round 4 and scores 80. He’ll go into his bye with an average of 110 and then be subbed out for a rookie who scores 60 for example, bringing the total points come round 5 to 500.

I’d like to think any premium you select in place of him should be averaging 110 or so by round 5 meaning they’re 50 points better off.

Just want to know everyone else’s thoughts on Daicos as he’s the only player I seem to be jumping back and fourth on, primarily because I know I’ll need to get him in pretty early in the season to be competitive.

This is something that I am grappling with.

Daicos is a very good chance to be the best defender this year. His DPP status should help with navigating R5 when he is on the bye, so keep the difference between your 19th player v premium others have instead of Daicos, to a minimum.

However, I do worry about the cumulative effect and think that we won’t be able to truly decide until we have more info post R0. If viable rookies from Collingwood and Sydney (or other early bye teams) present in R0, the attraction to Daicos lessons due having multiple players on the bye in R5.

In your example, you will also have Grundy, so that drops the rookie score we need to include in best 18 down another rung - meaning the difference between 2 rookies v 2 premiums for R5. If you also have Gawn and Flanders, that is two more rounds where your 19th player versus someone else’s premium. So over those first 6 rounds, the loss could potentially add up unless you are very confident in Daicos, and others, to make up lost ground over the whole season.

It is a good question, but I think it will depend on the rest of your team looks like heading into R1.

 

[MyNameIsBeggsy]

I’m personally looking to start him atm the blokes pretty much a lock to be D1
Would hate to have to chase some cash to be able to bring him in

 

[Chumpion]

Nick Daicos vs No Daicos

I’m making a conscious effort to avoid starting round zero premiums when viable and am comfortable starting Gawn, Grundy & Flanders and giving the others a miss.

Daicos is the only one I’m going back and forth on, so I’d like to hear people’s thoughts on him.

I’m leaning towards not starting him and his round 4 match up of Hawthorn is why. Let’s say he’s averaging 120 after 3 rounds, gets tagged by McGinness in round 4 and scores 80. He’ll go into his bye with an average of 110 and then be subbed out for a rookie who scores 60 for example, bringing the total points come round 5 to 500.

I’d like to think any premium you select in place of him should be averaging 110 or so by round 5 meaning they’re 50 points better off.

Just want to know everyone else’s thoughts on Daicos as he’s the only player I seem to be jumping back and fourth on, primarily because I know I’ll need to get him in pretty early in the season to be competitive.

This is something that I am grappling with.

Daicos is a very good chance to be the best defender this year. His DPP status should help with navigating R5 when he is on the bye, so keep the difference between your 19th player v premium others have instead of Daicos, to a minimum.

However, I do worry about the cumulative effect and think that we won’t be able to truly decide until we have more info post R0. If viable rookies from Collingwood and Sydney (or other early bye teams) present in R0, the attraction to Daicos lessons due having multiple players on the bye in R5.

In your example, you will also have Grundy, so that drops the rookie score we need to include in best 18 down another rung - meaning the difference between 2 rookies v 2 premiums for R5. If you also have Gawn and Flanders, that is two more rounds where your 19th player versus someone else’s premium. So over those first 6 rounds, the loss could potentially add up unless you are very confident in Daicos, and others, to make up lost ground over the whole season.

It is a good question, but I think it will depend on the rest of your team looks like heading into R1.

A lot of the times the case not to start these guys makes more sense (and is stronger) but two factors I also include are:
1. Can I get them into my team at a reasonable point to still gain the benefits?
2. Am I comfortable if circumstances fall a certain way and it means I can’t get them in?

Best laid plans often go awry and finding yourself without Daicos post round 5 could be pain if he goes on a tear. Any early advantage could disappear, and value upgrades could be missed to prioritise Daicos over anyone else.

Not to say it’s a lock to start him (he is in my side however), but getting him round 6ish is no guarantee and then it becomes a case of do you wait till after his bye.. etc. Can get messy.

 

[Manikato1]

Nick Daicos vs No Daicos

I’m making a conscious effort to avoid starting round zero premiums when viable and am comfortable starting Gawn, Grundy & Flanders and giving the others a miss.

Daicos is the only one I’m going back and forth on, so I’d like to hear people’s thoughts on him.

I’m leaning towards not starting him and his round 4 match up of Hawthorn is why. Let’s say he’s averaging 120 after 3 rounds, gets tagged by McGinness in round 4 and scores 80. He’ll go into his bye with an average of 110 and then be subbed out for a rookie who scores 60 for example, bringing the total points come round 5 to 500.

I’d like to think any premium you select in place of him should be averaging 110 or so by round 5 meaning they’re 50 points better off.

Just want to know everyone else’s thoughts on Daicos as he’s the only player I seem to be jumping back and fourth on, primarily because I know I’ll need to get him in pretty early in the season to be competitive.

Like you I started by avoiding Rd 0 premo players then found it too hard to have a team I thought would work without some. So I limited myself to two (Gawndy). Eventually though I decided I could not go without Naicos. He could put in a couple of dud scores early especially with the Hawthorn tag but I felt that if I did not start with him I would not get him until well into the season and miss a heap of big scores. And his early games make him a great VC option.

I look at it this way. If things went according to your scenario but then after Rd 5 he reels off four or five 120 point scores in a row how would you feel? I also thought unless I sold the farm I would not be able to get him in quickly (say Rd 7) even if his price dropped- assuming you are not doing a sideways replacement for a high priced injured player. And this would be assuming you are not dealing with multiple injury round, failing premo adjustments and must have rookies on the bubble.

Last year Bont started $639,500 and his first five scores were 107, 125, 89, 122 and 145 to ave 118. His price dropped to $611,900 and never got close to that again. By round 10 it was $707k.

 

[Blue Dragons]

That's extraordinary research.
We should invite him to join the site

From that stats analysis, the contested knock on scores more than a long kick to advantage (!?). That seems bonkers but probably explains how when guys like Bont just get involved by tapping the ball to team-mates their scores just rocket along.

The Cyril stat. Is this stat available anywhere?

 

[Juzzo]

11 premiums with Flanders and Amon atm.

 

[Herbie66]

Imagine fading Daicos due to a expected Maginness tag , and Maginness didn't play Round 4.

Delete team might get a workout

Hawks again in Round 19 as well.

So many trades this season just trade him out , back in , out again , back in again

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Not seeing Libba in many teams, ownership low despite injury score of 20 in 2023. step up in CBA's by 20% the key driver of higher output, Smith out, Hermes in, Bont maybe less mid time all seem to support him? any reason we think he is being faded given some value of 3-4%.

 

[Connoisseur]

Not seeing Libba in many teams, ownership low despite injury score of 20 in 2023. step up in CBA's by 20% the key driver of higher output, Smith out, Hermes in, Bont maybe less mid time all seem to support him? any reason we think he is being faded given some value of 3-4%.

Age bracket after a career best season with a lack of upside at the current price. Beware the perceived discount of the injury score of 20 as it is reliant on him posting the same portion or greater of 120+ scores.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Nick Daicos vs No Daicos

I’m making a conscious effort to avoid starting round zero premiums when viable and am comfortable starting Gawn, Grundy & Flanders and giving the others a miss.

Daicos is the only one I’m going back and forth on, so I’d like to hear people’s thoughts on him.

I’m leaning towards not starting him and his round 4 match up of Hawthorn is why. Let’s say he’s averaging 120 after 3 rounds, gets tagged by McGinness in round 4 and scores 80. He’ll go into his bye with an average of 110 and then be subbed out for a rookie who scores 60 for example, bringing the total points come round 5 to 500.

I’d like to think any premium you select in place of him should be averaging 110 or so by round 5 meaning they’re 50 points better off.

Just want to know everyone else’s thoughts on Daicos as he’s the only player I seem to be jumping back and fourth on, primarily because I know I’ll need to get him in pretty early in the season to be competitive.

This is something that I am grappling with.

Daicos is a very good chance to be the best defender this year. His DPP status should help with navigating R5 when he is on the bye, so keep the difference between your 19th player v premium others have instead of Daicos, to a minimum.

However, I do worry about the cumulative effect and think that we won’t be able to truly decide until we have more info post R0. If viable rookies from Collingwood and Sydney (or other early bye teams) present in R0, the attraction to Daicos lessons due having multiple players on the bye in R5.

In your example, you will also have Grundy, so that drops the rookie score we need to include in best 18 down another rung - meaning the difference between 2 rookies v 2 premiums for R5. If you also have Gawn and Flanders, that is two more rounds where your 19th player versus someone else’s premium. So over those first 6 rounds, the loss could potentially add up unless you are very confident in Daicos, and others, to make up lost ground over the whole season.

It is a good question, but I think it will depend on the rest of your team looks like heading into R1.

A lot of the times the case not to start these guys makes more sense (and is stronger) but two factors I also include are:
1. Can I get them into my team at a reasonable point to still gain the benefits?
2. Am I comfortable if circumstances fall a certain way and it means I can’t get them in?

Best laid plans often go awry and finding yourself without Daicos post round 5 could be pain if he goes on a tear. Any early advantage could disappear, and value upgrades could be missed to prioritise Daicos over anyone else.

Not to say it’s a lock to start him (he is in my side however), but getting him round 6ish is no guarantee and then it becomes a case of do you wait till after his bye.. etc. Can get messy.

Like you I started by avoiding Rd 0 premo players then found it too hard to have a team I thought would work without some. So I limited myself to two (Gawndy). Eventually though I decided I could not go without Naicos. He could put in a couple of dud scores early especially with the Hawthorn tag but I felt that if I did not start with him I would not get him until well into the season and miss a heap of big scores. And his early games make him a great VC option.

I look at it this way. If things went according to your scenario but then after Rd 5 he reels off four or five 120 point scores in a row how would you feel? I also thought unless I sold the farm I would not be able to get him in quickly (say Rd 7) even if his price dropped- assuming you are not doing a sideways replacement for a high priced injured player. And this would be assuming you are not dealing with multiple injury round, failing premo adjustments and must have rookies on the bubble.

Last year Bont started $639,500 and his first five scores were 107, 125, 89, 122 and 145 to ave 118. His price dropped to $611,900 and never got close to that again. By round 10 it was $707k.

If Daicos rolls out 4 x 120 out of 5 games and you don't own him, his price is on course to drop $30k as he may be averaging his 2023 average.

I think he has a mix of games early on of hard and easy and the risk is does he post 140-150 levels. Now, with his bye he probably impacts you 50pts, so fading him means you are protected up to a 125 average on scoring (not price).

Not sure Hawks is the risk game is Daicos playing mids. GWS ave, Saints, Swans and Port more headwind risk,

 

[Post Nut Clarity]

If Daicos rolls out 4 x 120 out of 5 games and you don't own him, his price is on course to drop $30k as he may be averaging his 2023 average.

I think he has a mix of games early on of hard and easy and the risk is does he post 140-150 levels. Now, with his bye he probably impacts you 50pts, so fading him means you are protected up to a 125 average on scoring (not price).

Not sure Hawks is the risk game is Daicos playing mids. GWS ave, Saints, Swans and Port more headwind risk,

Ive decided to lock Daicos in. Means I won’t have to scramble/stress about getting him in after round 5!

Yeah, I think I was looking for excuses to not start him but he could easily dominate against the hawks as well.

 

[Russty_]

Ive decided to lock Daicos in. Means I won’t have to scramble/stress about getting him in after round 5!

Yeah, I think I was looking for excuses to not start him but he could easily dominate against the hawks as well.

I think the same goes for any high end player you don't start, it's never as easy as you think to get them into your side during the year.
Stuff always happens which delays your plans., You really need to start with your favourite premos from the get go.

 

[ScottishBomber]

Having a little rethink as people have mentioned above regarding the 8 OR teams first bye.

Had Tom Green and Gawn. Now changed to Freeshaw and Marshall. Torn between Serong and Brayshaw. Ended up with both last year. Also have Young as D3. A few moving parts.

 

[TBG]

How many players are going to start in the square at the first bounce for Fremantle? They will have Serong and Brayshaw with Darcy but that 4th spot I've read is going to a few players. I've read Young is going to midfield permanently as well as Fyfe plus Johnson is going into the midfield plus Jackson playing through there as a big bodied mid and who knows how O'Meara fits in their as well (like Brodie I'm not sure O'Meara can play anywhere else)? Anyone have concerns of Young being moved back to defence?

 

[donnybuang]

If Daicos rolls out 4 x 120 out of 5 games and you don't own him, his price is on course to drop $30k as he may be averaging his 2023 average.

I think he has a mix of games early on of hard and easy and the risk is does he post 140-150 levels. Now, with his bye he probably impacts you 50pts, so fading him means you are protected up to a 125 average on scoring (not price).

Not sure Hawks is the risk game is Daicos playing mids. GWS ave, Saints, Swans and Port more headwind risk,

I presume a lot will have Stewart and Sic, who have one less bye than daicos. Unless people are taking all 3?

 

[jel]

Trying to get my head around this Rd0 and the early byes.

All teams play 23 games this year, effectively spread over 25 rounds.
The first round (RD0) doesn't score for the Supercoach comp, but player scores count for BE & price increases.
Trades only start at Rd1, so any player picked in Rd0 we get a free look at.
All players who played Rd0 only have 22 scoring rounds for Supercoach.

So......
Picking rookies who play Rd0 gives a free look at them and you can adjust in Rd1 for no loss of trades.
Any premo who plays Rd0 needs to score ~5+ points more on average than a similar player over the season.

Am I interpreting this correctly or am I missing something important.

 

[OnTopBar]

Trying to get my head around this Rd0 and the early byes.

All teams play 23 games this year, effectively spread over 25 rounds.
The first round (RD0) doesn't score for the Supercoach comp, but player scores count for BE & price increases.
Trades only start at Rd1, so any player picked in Rd0 we get a free look at.
All players who played Rd0 only have 22 scoring rounds for Supercoach.

So......
Picking rookies who play Rd0 gives a free look at them and you can adjust in Rd1 for no loss of trades.
Any premo who plays Rd0 needs to score ~5+ points more on average than a similar player over the season.

Am I interpreting this correctly or am I missing something important.

Essentially correct in a nutshell although the ~5+ pts calculation could be a little off. It really comes down to how well the 19th player scores when the rnd 0 player (premo) has his early bye and whether there's more than 1 premo missing the same bye where the 20th score will count and so on. My guess is around 20-60pts lost/premo missing.

 

[7/11]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1751765877928952254

View: https://twitter.com/AFLewy/status/1751765877928952254


Handy info regarding Sweet and Sinn.