Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread
- Thread starter MC's Mix
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Thanks Darkie, very interesting.
I think the main point for me to consider is the quality of the finishing teams. This has always been a weak point for me as I've generally faded away in the last few rounds. Last year I see I went from 711 after RD19 to 3567 at season's end.
There doesn't seem to be much wiggle room anymore in terms of finishing team, if you want to finish right at the pointy end. Possibly the best use of the extra trades this year is for that final push coming out of the byes, committing to culling the underperforming premos and targeting the absolute best of each line.
Of course the ultimate skill issue remains - can I tell the difference between an underpriced premo about to bounce back and one on the decline, or between a broken-out bona fide premo and a fake one on a surge.
I agree that the basic strategy seems pretty clear: balanced starting side of G&R with a few breakout gambles; avoid rd0 players unless you perceive at least +5pt/rd value over their next best alternative; don't stint on correction trades to get all the best cash cows; upgrade as fast as possible, using all boosts, from RD6 onwards, with aim of completing team before byes; slingshot through byes to get worst premos off field and all must-haves in; cruise to victory.
Simple?
I think the main point for me to consider is the quality of the finishing teams. This has always been a weak point for me as I've generally faded away in the last few rounds. Last year I see I went from 711 after RD19 to 3567 at season's end.
There doesn't seem to be much wiggle room anymore in terms of finishing team, if you want to finish right at the pointy end. Possibly the best use of the extra trades this year is for that final push coming out of the byes, committing to culling the underperforming premos and targeting the absolute best of each line.
Of course the ultimate skill issue remains - can I tell the difference between an underpriced premo about to bounce back and one on the decline, or between a broken-out bona fide premo and a fake one on a surge.
I agree that the basic strategy seems pretty clear: balanced starting side of G&R with a few breakout gambles; avoid rd0 players unless you perceive at least +5pt/rd value over their next best alternative; don't stint on correction trades to get all the best cash cows; upgrade as fast as possible, using all boosts, from RD6 onwards, with aim of completing team before byes; slingshot through byes to get worst premos off field and all must-haves in; cruise to victory.
Simple?
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If today’s training is anything to go by, we’ll see six rookie priced players starting for the Dees against the Tigers tomorrow morning.
Windsor, Laurie, Schache, Howes, Verrall & K Brown.
At this stage, I think just the first three mentioned are a round 1 chance.
Several best 22 players are likely to be missing from the starting team for various reasons including Brayshaw, Hunter, Petty & McAdam.
Windsor, Laurie, Schache, Howes, Verrall & K Brown.
At this stage, I think just the first three mentioned are a round 1 chance.
Several best 22 players are likely to be missing from the starting team for various reasons including Brayshaw, Hunter, Petty & McAdam.
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And that cycle continues every season. Player X did not play his full allotment of games last season and thus is not capable of playing the full amount this season whereas Player Y played all matches last season and will do so again this season … cause. Depends on the risk appetite of the individual and that they make sure to take into account and not overlook the perceived upside rather than just the perceived risk.
If the player goes on a scoring run do we continue to avoid for the remainder of the season due to the perceived risk since this should be an inherent risk, no matter the arbitrary point cut off, or do we jump on and possibly use an extra trade compared to selecting them as a starter?
If the player goes on a scoring run do we continue to avoid for the remainder of the season due to the perceived risk since this should be an inherent risk, no matter the arbitrary point cut off, or do we jump on and possibly use an extra trade compared to selecting them as a starter?
ATM I am similar to your Russty, with Jackson and Flanders at F1 & F2 (after Moore glandular fever news). I'm wondering though if it would be better to move Reid out of my mids to the Fwd line and swap Jackson for Walsh who would probably be less of an unknown scoring-wise. So while it means I have 5 spots in my forward line to fill hopefully it meant I only had 2 mid-spots to fill. This may not be a positive though as less chance of picking up mid-bargains. A real balancing act btw going with a lesser unknown, and I think I would always pick Walsh ahead of Jackson, but is not leaving me a lot of flexibility with mid choice
If you're super keen on Walsh then go ahead mate, I believe Jackson will improve this year but there's no guarantee he will, he could regress for all I know lol, I put Reid in my fwd line to make room for an extra mid spot for a bit of a speculative choice 
Seems like a decent crop of rookies in the mids though so if you're only going with 2 we'll know soon enough who the best few are.
Seems like a decent crop of rookies in the mids though so if you're only going with 2 we'll know soon enough who the best few are.
If you're super keen on Walsh then go ahead mate, I believe Jackson will improve this year but there's no guarantee he will, he could regress for all I know lol, I put Reid in my fwd line to make room for an extra mid spot for a bit of a speculative choice Seems like a decent crop of rookies in the mids though so if you're only going with 2 we'll know soon enough who the best few are.
Seems like a decent crop of rookies in the mids though so if you're only going with 2 we'll know soon enough who the best few are.
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I guess the other thing I hadn't given much thought to till now is the effect of so many best 18 rounds in the early part of the season. At first blush this seems to make midpricers less desirable as usually their best advantage is pushing off the really fringe rookies we normally have to played at 21st and 22nd spots, but there's usually not such a big fall off at the 18 mark. Haven't put much thought into it (and sorry if this has been covered at length elsewhere) but I might do some sums along that line of thinking.
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This is something that I have been trying to get my head around. I have seen mentioned that best 18 means that we can go a little more mid-priced to get rookie scores off field. However, I am wondering if it means we should actually go harder at GnR targeting higher end premiums? It might mean an extra on field rookie or two but in the best 18 scoring the risk of rookie score fluctuations is mitigated through lower scores dropping out. Potentially this could allow for quicker cash generation too?
However there will be a mid pricers who do extremely well. Maybe instead of starting them we target them when we have more information and just be prepared to sacrifice a starting premium? Odds are at least one of our starting premiums will start poorer than expected, so we would just need to be prepared to make early calls. I think 40 trades means we can’t waste time and need to learn to react quicker.
However there will be a mid pricers who do extremely well. Maybe instead of starting them we target them when we have more information and just be prepared to sacrifice a starting premium? Odds are at least one of our starting premiums will start poorer than expected, so we would just need to be prepared to make early calls. I think 40 trades means we can’t waste time and need to learn to react quicker.
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I’ve been thinking about this more, and I think using players like Sam Walsh and Rozee are good option for an example (Kane Cornes would be proud).
Walsh should be a good starting pick, but we aren’t selecting anyone (round 0 bye or not) who is outside the top 8 in a line and we don’t think will increase their average by 5ppg. i.e. people are picking Butters, Rozee, LDU, Parish, N Anderson because we can foresee they’ll increase by at least 5 (likely hoping for 10 if picking Parish or Anderson). So coming out ahead becomes relative, as they actually have to increase their average relative to more expensive picks, who also increase their average, in order to close that points gap.
Then comes in early scoring rate and price increase vs extra scoring, as people aren’t avoiding round 0 players all year, just very early. If over the first 6 SC rounds, Team A picks Walsh who averages 110 (7pt increase), and Team B picks Rozee who averages 112.5 (5pt increase), they’ll likely both increase modestly or hold price, with Walsh making money at a slightly faster rate. In round 7, Team A trades in Rozee and Team B trades in Walsh. They now have the same teams, with Team A having more money (maybe $35k ($10k extra gain based on magic number + $25k starting price difference)) and Team B with more points (no bye round + Rozee averaging more = about 55 more points (15 due to Rozee scoring, 40 due to extra premo in best 18)).
Which team is ahead at this point? You’ve got the exact same teams, so would you rather the $35k or 55 point head start?
This is a very specific example, but I think it shows a little bit of this challenge. If you start round 0 bye players who will be keepers (top group of scorers in a line), then you’re trying to pick they ones who can fire early and outscore other great options by closer to 10-15 points per game in the first few rounds to get an advantage and make the extra cash and not lose too many points before the POD is closed.
Walsh should be a good starting pick, but we aren’t selecting anyone (round 0 bye or not) who is outside the top 8 in a line and we don’t think will increase their average by 5ppg. i.e. people are picking Butters, Rozee, LDU, Parish, N Anderson because we can foresee they’ll increase by at least 5 (likely hoping for 10 if picking Parish or Anderson). So coming out ahead becomes relative, as they actually have to increase their average relative to more expensive picks, who also increase their average, in order to close that points gap.
Then comes in early scoring rate and price increase vs extra scoring, as people aren’t avoiding round 0 players all year, just very early. If over the first 6 SC rounds, Team A picks Walsh who averages 110 (7pt increase), and Team B picks Rozee who averages 112.5 (5pt increase), they’ll likely both increase modestly or hold price, with Walsh making money at a slightly faster rate. In round 7, Team A trades in Rozee and Team B trades in Walsh. They now have the same teams, with Team A having more money (maybe $35k ($10k extra gain based on magic number + $25k starting price difference)) and Team B with more points (no bye round + Rozee averaging more = about 55 more points (15 due to Rozee scoring, 40 due to extra premo in best 18)).
Which team is ahead at this point? You’ve got the exact same teams, so would you rather the $35k or 55 point head start?
This is a very specific example, but I think it shows a little bit of this challenge. If you start round 0 bye players who will be keepers (top group of scorers in a line), then you’re trying to pick they ones who can fire early and outscore other great options by closer to 10-15 points per game in the first few rounds to get an advantage and make the extra cash and not lose too many points before the POD is closed.