Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

Chumpion

Chumpion

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#3,361
Manikato1 said:
Valid comment. IMO you need a min 10 keepers and at least 3 or 4 of them top liner C options. Nothing wrong with having speculative picks but I think best to keep them to the Fwd/Def lines and two or maybe three at a stretch. Picking injury risk guys like Zwilliams and Fyfe then adding role dependent guys like Billings just compounds the danger of things getting too messy to fix even with extra trades. Can understand a N Martin or Amos pick if you are convinced the role change will come off but really you are picking them to specifically move them to Def as keepers. I do not think it is hard to find guys that are going to improve in the new season but just because they are going to improve does not always mean they are a good SC pick.
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Yeah you can definitely mount a case for a few guys but like you said, it’s when you stack them that it compounds and becomes a problem. If too many fool you get caught between fixing them before the bleed value or missing rookies with super low BE. There is only so much you can do in those early rounds. If there was no weekly trade cap it would be a different story but it’s just not worth it if it leads to 2 boosts down after round 4 and only to end up with the same structure you started with just different players!
 
KLo30

KLo30

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Geelong v Essendon at GMHBA Stadium, 5.10pm AEDT

GEELONG
B: Mark O'Connor, Sam De Koning, Jake Kolodjashnij
HB: Jack Henry, Tom Stewart, Jed Bews
C: Mark Blicavs, Max Holmes, Mitch Duncan
HF: Tyson Stengle, Brad Close, Jeremy Cameron
F: Tom Hawkins, Gryan Miers, Shannon Neale
Foll: Rhys Stanley, Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Atkins
I/C: Zach Guthrie, Tanner Bruhn, Jhye Clark, Oisin Mullin, Zach Tuohy, Oliver Dempsey, Shaun Mannagh, Jack Bowes
Emerg: Toby Conway, Mitch Knevitt, Connor O’Sullivan, Brandan Parfitt
Notable absentees: Ollie Henry, Gary Rohan, Cam Guthrie

ESSENDON
B: Jordan Ridley, Ben McKay, Zach Reid
HB: Mason Redman, Jayden Laverde, Andrew McGrath
C: Sam Durham, Darcy Parish, Nic Martin
HF: Jye Caldwell, Kyle Langford, Jade Gresham
F: Jake Stringer, Peter Wright, Archie Perkins
Foll: Todd Goldstein, Will Setterfield, Zach Merrett
I/C: Elijah Tsatas, Nik Cox, Nick Hind, Harrison Jones, Nick Bryan, Xavier Duursma, Matt Guelfi, Jye Menzie
Emerg: Sam Weideman, Lewis Hayes, Alwyn Davey jnr, Archie Roberts
Notable absentees: Sam Draper, Jake Kelly, Ben Hobbs, Dylan Shiel, Dyson Heppell


Port Adelaide v Fremantle at Alberton Oval, 7.30pm ACDT

PORT ADELAIDE
B: Ryan Burton, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Esava Ratugolea
HB: Lachie Jones, Aliir Aliir, Dan Houston
C: Miles Bergman, Willem Drew, Kane Farrell
HF: Jed McEntee, Todd Marshall, Connor Rozee
F: Zak Butters, Charlie Dixon, Willie Rioli
Foll: Ivan Soldo, Ollie Wines, Jason Horne-Francis
I/C: Jase Burgoyne, Travis Boak, Dylan Williams, Jordon Sweet, Ollie Lord, Francis Evans, Darcy Byrne-Jones, Jackson Mead
Emerg: Jeremy Finlayson, Trent McKenzie, Tom Clurey, Mitch Georgiades
Notable absentees: Mitch Georgiades, Quinton Narkle, Josh Sinn, Dante Visentini

FREMANTLE
B: Oscar McDonald, Alex Pearce, Jordan Clark
HB: James Aish, Luke Ryan, Ethan Hughes
C: Matthew Johnson, Andrew Brayshaw, Jeremy Sharp
HF: Michael Walters, Sam Sturt, Pat Voss
F: Sam Switkowski, Matt Taberner, Josh Treacy
Foll: Sean Darcy, Nat Fyfe, Caleb Serong
I/C: Cooper Simpson, Hayden Young, Jaeger O'Meara, Karl Worner, Liam Reidy, Bailey Banfield, Joshua Draper, Neil Erasmus
Emerg: Will Brodie, Brandon Walker, Corey Wagner, Jye Amiss
Notable absentees: Jye Amiss, Luke Jackson, Brennan Cox, Michael Frederick, Heath Chapman, Nathan O'Driscoll
 
S

straightuptheguts

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Plenty of talk about the extra trades this year. Would love to see a Rowsus Masterclass on this. Question - if people get lulled in a false sense of security and start running with 11 or even 10 premiums is there a real risk that the teams with 12 premiums that nail the rookies will be able to upgrade too fast to catch ? Where do we anticipate the extra trades will go ? My gut feel is that over the last few years people are accelerating correction trades so will we see this continue?
 
M

Montyjnr

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Chumpion said:
Yes and no.. no doubt there is a need to reduce rookie scores early with a mix of either some mid price or speculative breakout guys, but all the extra trades don’t necessarily translate to allowing extra risk because you can still only use a set amount per week. So round 3, do you want to grab the rookies you missed, sideways a speculative pick, fix a mid pricer.. even with a boost you can only do 3. Most people are using those boosts more effectively to facilitate upgrades and value growth. And even then, you can have a team with 11 premiums and 9 keepers, or 12 premiums and 6-7 keepers.. I would back in the first one as they can spend 40 trades improving a smaller number of positions. Needing to use 40 trades to get 16 premiums (plus cover injuries) isn’t setting up for success I don’t think.
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I would argue that many of these speculative breakout guys are successfully making the transition to true premiums though.

Look at Sicily, Hewett, Cripps, Brodie & Coniglio in 2022 - all discounted speculative options that successfully transitioned to top line premiums that year and put everyone that got them before price changes ahead of the pack. We also saw it last year to a lesser degree with Gulden, Ziebell etc.

The extra trades also allow you to take a punt on more midpricers - Hopper, Worpel, Setterfield and Sheed were all successful stepping stone options last season that made enough cash to be good cash cows whilst outscoring rookie priced options in the early rounds. Curnow, Witts etc. did the same in 2022.

You could finish a team with 20 trades when this game started in 2006 - 40 trades now is plenty to work with...
 
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