Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

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Anyone else thinking a 5 premo backline is the way to go this year? Im currently running Daicos, Stewart, Ryan, Houston, Young.

Lack of startable DEF rookies is pushing me this way.
Probably not with Mass & Williams looking fieldable
I’m currently torn between going 4 premium/Williams/Rookie and 3 premium/Williams, Mass/rookie.
I'm similar although I do have Coleman sitting in D4 and Mass, Williams rounding out defence. Not sure that'll stay though.
 

Darkie

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Normally I hate this approach, because you're trying to pick 5 of the top 6 defenders from round one. Add to that, the trend is that ~3 of the top six from last year won't be top 6 this year.
However with forwards being so poor this year, it could be the way to go for once.
Indeed. We also have up to 10 extra trades this season. I think it’s a bit more viable than it used to be.
 
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I think one of the reasons Ryan doesn’t have higher support is that he burned people for a few seasons in the past. What happened in the past should not determine what you do in a new year when we should reset but as humans that is exactly what we do. We let it influence us.

His first four years were upward growth resulting in a 107 ave in 2020. People jumped on in 2021 thinking he is on his way to premo status but he disappointed somewhat with 99. One of those seasons where you cannot justify trading him out but it isn’t what you paid for. So in 2022 some people forgave him and thought he would bounce back and others saw a premo scorer at a discount price and they both jumped on. He rewarded them with 96. Thoughly annoying those that had backed him in to return to his 107 form and disappointing those that were on him for the first time expecting a value buy. In fact it was only his last six games that saved him that year. At the end of rd 17 his ave was 90 and included six scores of 75 or less and some owners may have ditched him by this time. But from rd 18 he went bonkers. Which probably sent people that had traded him out completely bonkers. His last six scores were 128, 128, 110, 146, 65, 100. He put up two tons in the finals as well.

Then come 2023 many of those previous owners decided not again. So imagine their frustration to see him go 109 without one game below 83. Seven of his first eight games produced tons and showed his capacity for a high ceiling. Where was that for the past two years when I had you?

And people who had never owned him may have thought the 107 was a bit of a spike given the following years and may have looked elsewhere in 2023.

Hence I think he may have put off a lot of coaches in the past and that combined with the reports of his recent kicking “problem” could be reflected in his ownership this year.
Magnificent analysis 👏
 
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We have 30 players and 40 trades. I don't think our starting team locks anyone in. You could finish the year with none of your starting picks. There was a supercoach winner, can't remember what year, who finished with about 7 or 8 of their starting picks, and we have more trades since then. People still looking for 11 or 12 keepers makes no sense to me.
Couldn't agree with this more. Also, I don't understand how its universally accepted that rookies dictate structure, but when someone proposes a 5 premium defense because of rookies, it gets shut down by so many. The example team also includes Daicos and Young who already are or will be DPP. This team can just swing them mid to allow for rookie downgrades in defense in the unlikely event their 5 premiums are actually locked in.
 
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Probably not with Mass & Williams looking fieldable

I'm similar although I do have Coleman sitting in D4 and Mass, Williams rounding out defence. Not sure that'll stay though.
I like the Coleman pick, although the early bye is a pain. He's a small chance of being a keeper. But we know he has a good ceiling, so if he's not a keeper he's a good chance of spiking for a $100k profit, and a good player to loop after the MBR's. He also allows you to read the play rather than trying to guess now who the best players are going to be.
 

Connoisseur

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Anyone else thinking a 5 premo backline is the way to go this year? Im currently running Daicos, Stewart, Ryan, Houston, Young.

Lack of startable DEF rookies is pushing me this way.
Considered but quite happy with 4. Not confident that I can nail five selections which locks in an overspend for a subpar return on investment and then consider the opportunity cost of spending the equivalent cash in the midfield, etc for a higher ceiling and greater points return. Also an admittance that none of the rookie priced or cheap mid priced def will outperform their price point which feels unlikely as there will be several that come to the fore.

If going down that path, the key is determining how long you will hold onto the sunk cost if one or several of those $550,000+ spots start off slowly. At what average or round would you jump off, as any potential advantage could be lost or be already facing a points deficit?
 

Blue Dragons

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Couldn’t tell you exactly as I can never find that tool but Daicos is priced at 116.3. He only plays 4 games in the first 5 rounds so I’d say roughly 645k.

Wines is trickier priced at 83 but I’d be guessing with 100 x 5 in those opening rounds he’d be around 520-535k roughly (100 average for a season is 558k).
Thanks for that!
 
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We have 30 players and 40 trades. I don't think our starting team locks anyone in. You could finish the year with none of your starting picks. There was a supercoach winner, can't remember what year, who finished with about 7 or 8 of their starting picks, and we have more trades since then. People still looking for 11 or 12 keepers makes no sense to me.
Think it's more the speed that you can spend the trades hasn't increased commensurately. Doubled the trades, but not double the speed. Hence some level of core players to deliver bulk points is necessary. FWIW I'm full madness with only 8 bulk point selections.
 
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I like the Coleman pick, although the early bye is a pain. He's a small chance of being a keeper. But we know he has a good ceiling, so if he's not a keeper he's a good chance of spiking for a $100k profit, and a good player to loop after the MBR's. He also allows you to read the play rather than trying to guess now who the best players are going to be.
I'll be honest, I'm not a fan of this pick but struggling to find something else within my current structure. He hasn't gone over 120 in a game which is a worry for me.
 

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Think it's more the speed that you can spend the trades hasn't increased commensurately. Doubled the trades, but not double the speed. Hence some level of core players to deliver bulk points is necessary. FWIW I'm full madness with only 8 bulk point selections.
I am interested in this.

Assuming both coaches don’t have too much cash underutilized on the bench, won’t a value based (midpriced) team beat a GnR team early in the season?

The reasons to avoid midpriced madness used to be running out of trades or getting run down by better teams late in the season … rather than a slow start?

Maybe there is a nuance that I’m missing.
 
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Would someone be able to tell me Wines price after round 5 if he is averaging 100 and Daicos' price after round 5 if he is averaging 115?
Re Wines a lot depends on how he scores. If his first 5 games were 120, 120, 100, 80, 80 then you will a different result to 80,80,100, 120, 120. As a guide take Gulden from last year. At 472k he started slightly higher than Wines and went 115, 107, 85, 102, 88 to be ave 99 after five games and was priced at 489k a rise of 17k.
 
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I'll be honest, I'm not a fan of this pick but struggling to find something else within my current structure. He hasn't gone over 120 in a game which is a worry for me.
The floor is worrying too, loves to throw up a stinker from time to time. Admittedly a bit rarer once Rich went out but still a worry.
 
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