Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread
- Thread starter MC's Mix
- Start date
I’d be lying if I said there wasn’t a small part of me that would love to pick him but logically I can’t see why you wouldn’t just pick him up in 6 weeks or so when presumably he will cost significantly less than what he does now. Ideally you can get a value pick rather than having to paying up now.
Now remember, everybody... Let the rookies decide your structure
Pretty sure I'm missing a couple too.
Now let's see... a couple of captain choices at 650k or lower... Let's say Naicos and Gawn. 5 MPs... Shift som stuff around and....
BAM! Lookin' good
Yeah maybe 4.1 million ITB is a bit excessive but ya know... that pretty much pays for my first 15 - 20 upgrades so ya know... trades saved and all that.
Predicted score might only be 1005 but we know how useless that number is. The rookies alone are probably 600 or 700k under quoted.
Sure is nice not to be scrounging around for rookies for once
Pretty sure I'm missing a couple too.
Now let's see... a couple of captain choices at 650k or lower... Let's say Naicos and Gawn. 5 MPs... Shift som stuff around and....
BAM! Lookin' good
Yeah maybe 4.1 million ITB is a bit excessive but ya know... that pretty much pays for my first 15 - 20 upgrades so ya know... trades saved and all that.
Predicted score might only be 1005 but we know how useless that number is. The rookies alone are probably 600 or 700k under quoted.
Sure is nice not to be scrounging around for rookies for once
May as well take advantage of a lazy public holiday...
Melbourne vs Carlton - Figured this game made sense with 3 confirmed options. One of those weird games that went almost exactly as I would expect it to. Melbourne the better side but useless going inside 50, Carlton have their moments but have so many fringe players getting roles, they really ebb and flow on the confidence and output of those guys. Was a pretty solid hitout as far as intensity goes. Both sides with a key player out for working out what's going on. Given their byes, this will be pretty short and sweet I think.
Carlton - I probably rate them a lot lower than most, for me they were a team who got really hot at the right time last year but have gaping holes in their best 22 that will make them inconsistent, even with the getting hot they probably should have lost to both Melbourne and Sydney in their finals but found ways to win. This game just really highlights those issues. Pittonet was well beaten in the ruck and TDK was even more well beaten. Their small forwards offered something between nothing and a net negative and their midfield was just inconsistent in effort and output throughout. They had their moments but for the most part they were on the back foot. They also don't really seem to have any kind of gameplan. Their top end talent will win them games when they bottom 10 on the list also play well but I expect a pretty inconsistent season.
McKay - Was really solid until he had to kick the ball. The story of his last few seasons really. He's the ultimate example of the mental aspect of the game as I still don't think there's anything technically wrong with his kicking but the second you give him time to think about it, it falls apart. Looked in ripping nick though.
Docherty - Pretty much pure midfield pushing behind a bit. Looks in great nick also and played really well. He's really not relevant as a pure mid with that bye. See what develops in season.
Hewett - Role was great, scored well, looks fit. If he didn't have that bye I'd put more time into him at his price.
Saad - Same old for him. Will almost certainly be what he's been the last few years, a fringe D6 level guy that if you can get at a good price some point might be worth it but otherwise is not. No value to take on the bye.
Kemp/Young - Both I thought played pretty well albeit not facing much. Not fantasy relevant.
Cerra - I still rate him as a player but with the bye I just can't justify it.
Cripps - He's the one who is genuinely underpriced on his best and I think deserves more attention that I've noticed for him. He looked really fit to me and that's always his question mark. Definitely wouldn't surprise me if he bounces back to the 110-115 region but I'm not sure he's really worth the risk on top of the bye.
TDK - He's so close to being good and so far from being good at the same time. He's such an enigma to me, he plays better as a ruck but he's a terrible ruck but when he plays ruck I always think he should be a great forward and yet he's even worse forward than as a ruck and then he has magical moments. He just confuses me
Hollands x2 - Both played solidly, neither is relevant, imo.
Newman - Really low TOG and score. If it wasn't for his bye I'd probably have started him, the way he finished last year there's definitely a case for starting him despite the bye. I'm not sure if Weitering out for a while hurts or helps, I think it hurts but can definitely see a case for helping as well. He's definitely worth more consideration than I've seen him getting.
McGovern - Was solid. Not relevant.
Curnow - Well beaten by May but he sneaks goals where other KPF types don't that inflate his final scores and is why he's able to actually push premium numbers. Not worth it with the bye though.
Boyd - Played really well but he's 60k too expensive for my interest, especially with his bye.
Cincotta - He sure feels like the guy who goes out for Williams eventually.
Fantasia - He did a couple of nice things but that's about all he did. Given injury history, bye, price and other options, I think he's an easy fade.
Binns - Came on after Motlop was subbed out at QT, low TOG still, awful role. There's just better options.
Wilson - Came on last Qtr, what he did wasn't bad.
Melbourne - Like Carlton remain consistently inconsistent, Melbourne remain incredibly consistent. They will dominate clearances, they have no key forwards, they make it even harder on the forwards with how they kick I50, the setup behind the ball better than anyone and have an elite defense seemingly regardless of who is out there besides May. I can't help but feel like they play every game like they go through seasons, wasted opportunities just feels like the best way to sum up the Goodwin era and they should be right amongst it again this year but it wouldn't shock me if they find spectacular ways to blow it or win it all, really the only thing that would actually shock me is if they weren't a good team.
Gawn - I mean do I need to say anything? He's Gawn, he's underpriced and their bye isn't nearly as bad as the others thanks to Richmond being seemingly completely irrelevant this year. This just seems too easy a pick.
Sparrow - Role really solid, he's the very obvious guy who falls out with Oliver back but he always shows me plenty. He's exactly the kind of player I'd target if I was a West Coast type team and offer him a better role. Not worth the risk for fantasy, imo. Solid draft option though.
Salem - Pretty pure midfield role, like Docherty playing a sweeper role and falling behind the ball, expect he falls into the 4th slot with Oliver back, not sure if he plays from HB through midfield or HF and bench. I think he's a strong option but can't help but think there's a couple of stronger options around his price. Wouldn't be shocked if he pushed back towards 90 but wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't.
Billings - He scored a lot better than it felt to me, wing/HF role as you'd expect given their midfield and he played well. He should score well enough at his price, that he's hit premium levels before is a nice kicker but I think those days might be behind him and a mid 80s is probably the realistic aim. Their bye is much better and he's great value. Strong option. Will get a good round 0 indicator on him either way.
Rivers - Also probably scored better than I expected but did junk pretty well. He's the guy where the bye kills him for me but wouldn't be surprised if he pushes towards the 90s. Really rate him. Salem role so uncertain as well a negative. Not worth the risk to start but could be a good trade target if he does start well.
Petracca - Very standard game for him. Prolific ball winning and butchery as an artform. Personally the bye makes him an upgrade target, I love him as a player but he just can't kick and that's always going to cap him and with that bye, that really kills any upside arguments off. Fair enough to those who do start him but I personally don't see the value there.
Pickett - Solid role but I'd rather pay more post bye and know it holds up and he scores. Wouldn't shock me if he can push towards 90 though, he's a serious talent.
Viney - He was great, but we know what he is at this point.
JVR - Played well but don't see any reason to pick him.
Laurie - He was solid but JS is at best shaky and the role's not great. That said, I felt exactly the same about Chandler and he turned into one of the best rookies last year. I have no idea where Spargo is at, but he sure seems like he comes in for Laurie. Pickett will also not be there for round 0. I assume McAdam is somewhere in the mix as well?
Windsor - Ratio gold but wouldn't count on it holding up. It was kind of funny he was matched up on Hollands so much because from the very first second that was my immediate comparison. Moves like him, kicks like him, same role and I'd anticipate similar scoring only issue is Lachie Hunter looming on the horizon, he might be able to hold his spot over him as his speed is something Hunter can't provide (Hunter is also a very decent small forward). Liked what I saw but for me he'd be a fringe fieldable rookie, ideally bench, which at his price isn't ideal. See what he does round 0 though and then decide, plenty of guys cheaper so that's the good part. Really like the look of him though as a player.
Howes - If Windsor reminded me of Hollands then Howes reminded me of McVee. I'm going out on a limb but he might actually be the sneaky best fantasy pick of this entire game. I didn't notice him get beat once in the game, he used the pill very nicely, he made a couple of nice intercept plays and was just very composed. He slots straight into that Joel Smith by way of Brayshaw opening from their last game. I might be being daft but I don't see anyone missing that should shake up their backline mix except for Salem pushing through but I'd think Salem replaces Bowie first if they go the replacement option. Will see what he does round 0 also but I liked what I saw, sneaky bench option that I think grows into a solid 60+ guy over the first month who can probably have a couple of 80s to make very strong cash.
Melbourne vs Carlton - Figured this game made sense with 3 confirmed options. One of those weird games that went almost exactly as I would expect it to. Melbourne the better side but useless going inside 50, Carlton have their moments but have so many fringe players getting roles, they really ebb and flow on the confidence and output of those guys. Was a pretty solid hitout as far as intensity goes. Both sides with a key player out for working out what's going on. Given their byes, this will be pretty short and sweet I think.
Carlton - I probably rate them a lot lower than most, for me they were a team who got really hot at the right time last year but have gaping holes in their best 22 that will make them inconsistent, even with the getting hot they probably should have lost to both Melbourne and Sydney in their finals but found ways to win. This game just really highlights those issues. Pittonet was well beaten in the ruck and TDK was even more well beaten. Their small forwards offered something between nothing and a net negative and their midfield was just inconsistent in effort and output throughout. They had their moments but for the most part they were on the back foot. They also don't really seem to have any kind of gameplan. Their top end talent will win them games when they bottom 10 on the list also play well but I expect a pretty inconsistent season.
McKay - Was really solid until he had to kick the ball. The story of his last few seasons really. He's the ultimate example of the mental aspect of the game as I still don't think there's anything technically wrong with his kicking but the second you give him time to think about it, it falls apart. Looked in ripping nick though.
Docherty - Pretty much pure midfield pushing behind a bit. Looks in great nick also and played really well. He's really not relevant as a pure mid with that bye. See what develops in season.
Hewett - Role was great, scored well, looks fit. If he didn't have that bye I'd put more time into him at his price.
Saad - Same old for him. Will almost certainly be what he's been the last few years, a fringe D6 level guy that if you can get at a good price some point might be worth it but otherwise is not. No value to take on the bye.
Kemp/Young - Both I thought played pretty well albeit not facing much. Not fantasy relevant.
Cerra - I still rate him as a player but with the bye I just can't justify it.
Cripps - He's the one who is genuinely underpriced on his best and I think deserves more attention that I've noticed for him. He looked really fit to me and that's always his question mark. Definitely wouldn't surprise me if he bounces back to the 110-115 region but I'm not sure he's really worth the risk on top of the bye.
TDK - He's so close to being good and so far from being good at the same time. He's such an enigma to me, he plays better as a ruck but he's a terrible ruck but when he plays ruck I always think he should be a great forward and yet he's even worse forward than as a ruck and then he has magical moments. He just confuses me
Hollands x2 - Both played solidly, neither is relevant, imo.
Newman - Really low TOG and score. If it wasn't for his bye I'd probably have started him, the way he finished last year there's definitely a case for starting him despite the bye. I'm not sure if Weitering out for a while hurts or helps, I think it hurts but can definitely see a case for helping as well. He's definitely worth more consideration than I've seen him getting.
McGovern - Was solid. Not relevant.
Curnow - Well beaten by May but he sneaks goals where other KPF types don't that inflate his final scores and is why he's able to actually push premium numbers. Not worth it with the bye though.
Boyd - Played really well but he's 60k too expensive for my interest, especially with his bye.
Cincotta - He sure feels like the guy who goes out for Williams eventually.
Fantasia - He did a couple of nice things but that's about all he did. Given injury history, bye, price and other options, I think he's an easy fade.
Binns - Came on after Motlop was subbed out at QT, low TOG still, awful role. There's just better options.
Wilson - Came on last Qtr, what he did wasn't bad.
Melbourne - Like Carlton remain consistently inconsistent, Melbourne remain incredibly consistent. They will dominate clearances, they have no key forwards, they make it even harder on the forwards with how they kick I50, the setup behind the ball better than anyone and have an elite defense seemingly regardless of who is out there besides May. I can't help but feel like they play every game like they go through seasons, wasted opportunities just feels like the best way to sum up the Goodwin era and they should be right amongst it again this year but it wouldn't shock me if they find spectacular ways to blow it or win it all, really the only thing that would actually shock me is if they weren't a good team.
Gawn - I mean do I need to say anything? He's Gawn, he's underpriced and their bye isn't nearly as bad as the others thanks to Richmond being seemingly completely irrelevant this year. This just seems too easy a pick.
Sparrow - Role really solid, he's the very obvious guy who falls out with Oliver back but he always shows me plenty. He's exactly the kind of player I'd target if I was a West Coast type team and offer him a better role. Not worth the risk for fantasy, imo. Solid draft option though.
Salem - Pretty pure midfield role, like Docherty playing a sweeper role and falling behind the ball, expect he falls into the 4th slot with Oliver back, not sure if he plays from HB through midfield or HF and bench. I think he's a strong option but can't help but think there's a couple of stronger options around his price. Wouldn't be shocked if he pushed back towards 90 but wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't.
Billings - He scored a lot better than it felt to me, wing/HF role as you'd expect given their midfield and he played well. He should score well enough at his price, that he's hit premium levels before is a nice kicker but I think those days might be behind him and a mid 80s is probably the realistic aim. Their bye is much better and he's great value. Strong option. Will get a good round 0 indicator on him either way.
Rivers - Also probably scored better than I expected but did junk pretty well. He's the guy where the bye kills him for me but wouldn't be surprised if he pushes towards the 90s. Really rate him. Salem role so uncertain as well a negative. Not worth the risk to start but could be a good trade target if he does start well.
Petracca - Very standard game for him. Prolific ball winning and butchery as an artform. Personally the bye makes him an upgrade target, I love him as a player but he just can't kick and that's always going to cap him and with that bye, that really kills any upside arguments off. Fair enough to those who do start him but I personally don't see the value there.
Pickett - Solid role but I'd rather pay more post bye and know it holds up and he scores. Wouldn't shock me if he can push towards 90 though, he's a serious talent.
Viney - He was great, but we know what he is at this point.
JVR - Played well but don't see any reason to pick him.
Laurie - He was solid but JS is at best shaky and the role's not great. That said, I felt exactly the same about Chandler and he turned into one of the best rookies last year. I have no idea where Spargo is at, but he sure seems like he comes in for Laurie. Pickett will also not be there for round 0. I assume McAdam is somewhere in the mix as well?
Windsor - Ratio gold but wouldn't count on it holding up. It was kind of funny he was matched up on Hollands so much because from the very first second that was my immediate comparison. Moves like him, kicks like him, same role and I'd anticipate similar scoring only issue is Lachie Hunter looming on the horizon, he might be able to hold his spot over him as his speed is something Hunter can't provide (Hunter is also a very decent small forward). Liked what I saw but for me he'd be a fringe fieldable rookie, ideally bench, which at his price isn't ideal. See what he does round 0 though and then decide, plenty of guys cheaper so that's the good part. Really like the look of him though as a player.
Howes - If Windsor reminded me of Hollands then Howes reminded me of McVee. I'm going out on a limb but he might actually be the sneaky best fantasy pick of this entire game. I didn't notice him get beat once in the game, he used the pill very nicely, he made a couple of nice intercept plays and was just very composed. He slots straight into that Joel Smith by way of Brayshaw opening from their last game. I might be being daft but I don't see anyone missing that should shake up their backline mix except for Salem pushing through but I'd think Salem replaces Bowie first if they go the replacement option. Will see what he does round 0 also but I liked what I saw, sneaky bench option that I think grows into a solid 60+ guy over the first month who can probably have a couple of 80s to make very strong cash.