Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread
- Thread starter MC's Mix
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Probably a bit late for this but......
High end midfield churn:
The following is a list of top 8 mids by year who did not make the top 8 the following year. The number in brackets is their midfield ranking for the following year. I haven't taken into account DPPs
2018: Titch (DNP), Oliver (10), Cogs (25) If we ignore Titch for his LTI, then Laird went from 9th to 33rd
2019: Fyfe (10), Cripps (44), Dunkley (31), Danger (11), Bont (9)
2020: Neale (25), Trac (11), Kelly (19), Merrett (12)
2021: Steele (14), Titch (43), Walsh (11), Parish (12)
2022: Neale (18), Touk (33), Macrae (28), Mills (56)
So in any year we can expect around half of that top 8 to not be top 8 the following year. Of those that miss out, there is a 50/50 chance that they will come in 9th to 12th. Not the end of the world.
Here is this year's starting top 8. Which 4 to miss? Which 4 to miss badly?
Bont, Oliver, Trac, Laird, Zerrett, Daicos*, Libba, Dawson. I'll add Spudniacke due to Daicos being a defender
High end midfield churn:
The following is a list of top 8 mids by year who did not make the top 8 the following year. The number in brackets is their midfield ranking for the following year. I haven't taken into account DPPs
2018: Titch (DNP), Oliver (10), Cogs (25) If we ignore Titch for his LTI, then Laird went from 9th to 33rd
2019: Fyfe (10), Cripps (44), Dunkley (31), Danger (11), Bont (9)
2020: Neale (25), Trac (11), Kelly (19), Merrett (12)
2021: Steele (14), Titch (43), Walsh (11), Parish (12)
2022: Neale (18), Touk (33), Macrae (28), Mills (56)
So in any year we can expect around half of that top 8 to not be top 8 the following year. Of those that miss out, there is a 50/50 chance that they will come in 9th to 12th. Not the end of the world.
Here is this year's starting top 8. Which 4 to miss? Which 4 to miss badly?
Bont, Oliver, Trac, Laird, Zerrett, Daicos*, Libba, Dawson. I'll add Spudniacke due to Daicos being a defender
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High end midfield churn part 2:
So if we are getting 3 - 5 new guys into the top 8 mids each year, where are they coming from?
The year is the year the player entered the top 8 mids and the number in brackets is their midfield ranking from the year before
2019: Dunkley (37), Kelly (11), Bont (14)
2020: Oliver (10), Steele (40), Trac (86), Merrett (18), Titch (DNP) * Were Merrett and Trac DPP this year?
2021: Touk (21), Walsh (40), Parish (71)
2022: Laird (9), Neale (25), Mills (14), Merrett (12)
2023: Trac (17), Libba (22), Spudniak (28), Dunkley (18) * Daicos (58), and Dawson (16), were defense eligible so I have included 9th and 10th (Spudniacke and Dunkley)
Of the 21 new entrants over the last 5 seasons, 9 came up from 9th to 18th for an average of about 2 per year. Of those, 4 were re-entries.
Midfielders between 9th and 18th this tie around: Spudniacke, Dunkley, Gulden, Butters, Green, Serong, Brayshaw, Parish, Treloar, Neale.
So pick a couple of those guys and a couple from anywhere between 21st (Sam Walsh) and 71st (Jaeger O'Meara). Good luck with that
So if we are getting 3 - 5 new guys into the top 8 mids each year, where are they coming from?
The year is the year the player entered the top 8 mids and the number in brackets is their midfield ranking from the year before
2019: Dunkley (37), Kelly (11), Bont (14)
2020: Oliver (10), Steele (40), Trac (86), Merrett (18), Titch (DNP) * Were Merrett and Trac DPP this year?
2021: Touk (21), Walsh (40), Parish (71)
2022: Laird (9), Neale (25), Mills (14), Merrett (12)
2023: Trac (17), Libba (22), Spudniak (28), Dunkley (18) * Daicos (58), and Dawson (16), were defense eligible so I have included 9th and 10th (Spudniacke and Dunkley)
Of the 21 new entrants over the last 5 seasons, 9 came up from 9th to 18th for an average of about 2 per year. Of those, 4 were re-entries.
Midfielders between 9th and 18th this tie around: Spudniacke, Dunkley, Gulden, Butters, Green, Serong, Brayshaw, Parish, Treloar, Neale.
So pick a couple of those guys and a couple from anywhere between 21st (Sam Walsh) and 71st (Jaeger O'Meara). Good luck with that
Given the preseason Oliver has had, yes I do.
I think it will take at least a month for Oliver to get back to near full fitness - expect his minutes to managed carefully over the first 3/4 weeks whilst he builds up his fitness base. An 80% fit Oliver is better than the majority of players & he is just so important to the dees with his stoppage work that I can certainly see why they are playing him round 0.
I think it will take at least a month for Oliver to get back to near full fitness - expect his minutes to managed carefully over the first 3/4 weeks whilst he builds up his fitness base. An 80% fit Oliver is better than the majority of players & he is just so important to the dees with his stoppage work that I can certainly see why they are playing him round 0.
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Is it the rolled ankle that has people cooling on Butters, or the potential of Wines to return to decent scoring?
Hypothetically, if he'd rolled it late in Q4 rather than early in Q1 then he gets Wines's CBAs and scores 120 to Wines's 90. Not sure whether that would have given sufficient reassurance to arrest the slide.
Feels a bit bizarre that a Brownlow fancy with a perfect SC role, high ceiling, fantastic draw and in the ideal age range to push 120 might be a relative midfield POD
Hypothetically, if he'd rolled it late in Q4 rather than early in Q1 then he gets Wines's CBAs and scores 120 to Wines's 90. Not sure whether that would have given sufficient reassurance to arrest the slide.
Feels a bit bizarre that a Brownlow fancy with a perfect SC role, high ceiling, fantastic draw and in the ideal age range to push 120 might be a relative midfield POD
Is it the rolled ankle that has people cooling on Butters, or the potential of Wines to return to decent scoring?
Hypothetically, if he'd rolled it late in Q4 rather than early in Q1 then he gets Wines's CBAs and scores 120 to Wines's 90. Not sure whether that would have given sufficient reassurance to arrest the slide.
Feels a bit bizarre that a Brownlow fancy with a perfect SC role, high ceiling, fantastic draw and in the ideal age range to push 120 might be a relative midfield POD
Hypothetically, if he'd rolled it late in Q4 rather than early in Q1 then he gets Wines's CBAs and scores 120 to Wines's 90. Not sure whether that would have given sufficient reassurance to arrest the slide.
Feels a bit bizarre that a Brownlow fancy with a perfect SC role, high ceiling, fantastic draw and in the ideal age range to push 120 might be a relative midfield POD
Agree re perfect SC role/ celing/draw - he was one of my first picked before this ankle issue cropped up. Monitoring him closely, if he looks great at training again before round 1 I will still probably still roll with him.
Is it the rolled ankle that has people cooling on Butters, or the potential of Wines to return to decent scoring?
Hypothetically, if he'd rolled it late in Q4 rather than early in Q1 then he gets Wines's CBAs and scores 120 to Wines's 90. Not sure whether that would have given sufficient reassurance to arrest the slide.
Feels a bit bizarre that a Brownlow fancy with a perfect SC role, high ceiling, fantastic draw and in the ideal age range to push 120 might be a relative midfield POD
Hypothetically, if he'd rolled it late in Q4 rather than early in Q1 then he gets Wines's CBAs and scores 120 to Wines's 90. Not sure whether that would have given sufficient reassurance to arrest the slide.
Feels a bit bizarre that a Brownlow fancy with a perfect SC role, high ceiling, fantastic draw and in the ideal age range to push 120 might be a relative midfield POD
