Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

[Rowsus]

Just does it all. Rucks, gets involved at stoppages and kicks goals. Also had a feeling Darcy would go down reasonably early in the season, but not this early..

Same reason I had him. I thought he could improve his Darcy involved average, as well as his non-Darcy involved average. Having Darcy as my R1 was probably a little too cute. I saw it as, if Jackson couldn't improve his Darcy involved average, it probably meant Darcy was having a very good start to his season!

 

[mwross91]

Haven't managed to catch any of the Saints games.
Anyone able to give me some insight into Bonner. Scoring is too good to ignore but I've got zero insight into him.
How does Sinclair coming back affect his scoring though? Feels like a lot of points to be shared between Sinc, NWM and Bonner?

 

[Miller is a Steele]

The Darcy news has me off Serong for now.

In 2023:
13 games with Darcy @114.9
8 games without Darcy @107.5
1 game where Darcy got subbed off (around late Q2/HT from memory) @93

 

[Rowsus]

Long way to go, but current clubhouse leader on how I will likely set up my rucks and forward line. Doubt I will be alone.
View attachment 68714 View attachment 68715

The main problem with that is, it only works in Round 1!
Game order for Richmond:
Round 1: Game 1 of 9 (Freo game 8 WC game 9)
Round 2: Game 7 of 8 (Freo game 3 WC game 8)
Round 3: Game 7 of 8 (Freo game 3 WC game 6)
Round 4: Game 8 of 9 (Freo game 4, WC game 3)
Round 5: Game 8 of 8 (Freo game 6, WC game 8)
Round 6: Bye

It would be near perfect, if you were looping Jackson into Naismith, but only good for one Round when looping Naismith into Jackson!

 

[Crowls]

The issue is whether his head is screwed on enough… if it is, then he might be a goer if picked.

agreed. 50/50 on that and i want to back him. What can go wrong with a 19 yr old who has already made a couple of bad choices? Nice POD option.

 

[Rowsus]

Haven't managed to catch any of the Saints games.
Anyone able to give me some insight into Bonner. Scoring is too good to ignore but I've got zero insight into him.
How does Sinclair coming back affect his scoring though? Feels like a lot of points to be shared between Sinc, NWM and Bonner?

Seemed to me, like he was playing the exact role that Sinclair WILL be playing when he returns. Until we see them together, I'd be thinking Bonner is 75-80, which makes him a borderline selection. 80 good , 70 .

 

[Professor]

agreed. 50/50 on that and i want to back him. What can go wrong with a 19 yr old who has already made a couple of bad choices? Nice POD option.

Only issue I see is returning backmen, Hunter Clark, Josh Battle, Zane Cordy.

 

[The Banker]

The main problem with that is, it only works in Round 1!
Game order for Richmond:
Round 1: Game 1 of 9 (Freo game 8 WC game 9)
Round 2: Game 7 of 8 (Freo game 3 WC game 8)
Round 3: Game 7 of 8 (Freo game 3 WC game 6)
Round 4: Game 8 of 9 (Freo game 4, WC game 3)
Round 5: Game 8 of 8 (Freo game 6, WC game 8)
Round 6: Bye

It would be near perfect, if you were looping Jackson into Naismith, but only good for one Round when looping Naismith into Jackson!

Looked at that not long ago. Not ideal. If Naismith isn't a thing it leads to the plus of WCE play late games so you could loop forwards (Richmond i suppose are also a late loop if Naismith falls off a cliff), and/or you have the captaincy loop sorted outside the byes. As well as Jackson looks a good prospect without Darcy.

The negative. You might have 2 dead rookies.

So whilst it's not perfect on the Naismith loop front there are still some positives to draw out of it, as well as a negative.

 

[Leroy]

I just worry that we are leaning too greatly towards value and going to leave ourselves with too much to do to actually get to full premium optimal sides, dont want to have to use 25 trades turning all our mid pricers into premiums.

Hopefully Round 0 can make the optimal strategy a little clearer.

I think there's a subtlety in here that people might be missing a little amongst the hype.

To get to a top-level team for the last N rounds, you need to generate around (or more than) $3.5M cash 'value' past the $10M we all start with.

Some of that value comes when you start a $550k Mid who becomes a keeper premium and rises to $650k. Most of it comes from rookies.

If you set aside some trades for injuries (5 maybe to be kind?), then the remaining 35 trades you have need to generate $100k on average. So the question is - are those mid-pricers going to get there?

Unless they morph into a premium, you have to trade them out as a cash making prospect. Which means a lot of the time, you'd be better off with a rookie, because they make cash that much more easily.

Food for thought.

 

[mwross91]

Seemed to me, like he was playing the exact role that Sinclair WILL be playing when he returns. Until we see them together, I'd be thinking Bonner is 75-80, which makes him a borderline selection. 80 good , 70 .

Yep - that was my thoughts as well. Hope he traps a few people. I'll take Thomson Dow instead and save $30k.

 

[aj74]

Good video, thank you.

I can’t really see how Fisher can be at F1 in a guns and rookies side, but maybe it highlights how far Jackson has shifted his thinking from the GnR model!

The GnR philosophy is to pick as many of the top players in their position first up. Starting price isn't much of a consideration

Macrae is still likely to be F1 by the end of it as he will be playing the same role that has him F1 now. Likewise, Jackson will be right up there too. Darcy didn't miss much more footy last year than you could expect him to miss this year

 

[Russty_]

Yep - that was my thoughts as well. Hope he traps a few people. I'll take Thomson Dow instead and save $30k.

Howard missing for 4-5 weeks and now Webster for 7.
Could replace either of them, he's tall-ish enough to cover Howard.
Have no idea what he could average at the Saints, sometimes those pre-season games are the best score they ever had.

 

[mwross91]

Howard missing for 4-5 weeks and now Webster for 7.
Could replace either of them, he's tall-ish enough to cover Howard.
Have no idea what he could average at the Saints, sometimes those pre-season games are the best score they ever had.

Yeh my thoughts were that this might hinder more than help. Means he might have to play a more defensive-focused role?
I'm happy to fade him at this stage but do see some of the appeal.

 

[Russty_]

Yeh my thoughts were that this might hinder more than help. Means he might have to play a more defensive-focused role?
I'm happy to fade him at this stage but do see some of the appeal.

Same here, as good as that score was, I wouldn't bring him in unless he'd had two good scores in a row first.

 

[Shaunpro1]

If Darcy's out for any prolonged period you have to pick Jackson, can't be going without a forward that can go at 118 for 550K.

 

[Under The Dome]

If Darcy's out for any prolonged period you have to pick Jackson, can't be going without a forward that can go at 118 for 550K.

Yeh I'll swap Sheezel out for him if he is.

 

[Montyjnr]

If Darcy's out for any prolonged period you have to pick Jackson, can't be going without a forward that can go at 118 for 550K.

I think Jackson is a lock even if Darcy only misses the opening 2 games.

You could get a look at both Darcy & Jackson together in Round 3 and then bail out to Touk Miller bye-free in Round 4 if you don’t like the ruck share.

 

[Darkie]

The GnR philosophy is to pick as many of the top players in their position first up. Starting price isn't much of a consideration

Macrae is still likely to be F1 by the end of it as he will be playing the same role that has him F1 now. Likewise, Jackson will be right up there too. Darcy didn't miss much more footy last year than you could expect him to miss this year

It wasn’t so much that Fisher couldn’t perform at keeper level, it’s that if you’re picking a GnR side, there would almost always be other premiums picked alongside him - which would push him to, say, F2 or F3 initially, because they would very likely be higher priced.

You also can’t have so many midpricers alongside him … it’s not a GnR side if there are many players that don’t fit either category. [It might be more GnR than the alternate side, but the label doesn’t fit either of them.]

 

[Shaunpro1]

Yeh I'll swap Sheezel out for him if he is.

Id go one premo mid less and just swing one of the 250K forwards to the midfield, don't want to weaken the defence.

 

[aj74]

It wasn’t so much that Fisher couldn’t perform at keeper level, it’s that if you’re picking a GnR side, there would almost always be other premiums picked alongside him - which would push him to, say, F2 or F3 initially, because they would very likely be higher priced.

You also can’t have so many midpricers alongside him … it’s not a GnR side if there are many players that don’t fit either category. [It might be more GnR than the alternate side, but the label doesn’t fit either of them.]

That's what I was trying to say, yeah.

Regardless, I think that the state of the forwards pool is such that pure GnR can't be done this year. I listed Jackson, who's stocks have risen slightly and Macrae who's preseason would test even the most zealous GnR evangelist.

I hear talk about having best 18 for 4 of the first 6 rounds meaning we can feel ok about fielding Reid/Gibcus at D6. Maybe throw Sexton or Martin back when they get their DPP. It's OK I guess but tally an extra trade to your corrections because getting that rookie out of D6 before round 7 isn't likely to gain you a lot of cash. The lucrative ones, if any, won't be ready yet and none will be DPP.

Maybe GnR isn't good this year for the backs either?