Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

[Darkie]

That's what I was trying to say, yeah.

Regardless, I think that the state of the forwards pool is such that pure GnR can't be done this year. I listed Jackson, who's stocks have risen slightly and Macrae who's preseason would test even the most zealous GnR evangelist.

I hear talk about having best 18 for 4 of the first 6 rounds meaning we can feel ok about fielding Reid/Gibcus at D6. Maybe throw Sexton or Martin back when they get their DPP. It's OK I guess but tally an extra trade to your corrections because getting that rookie out of D6 before round 7 isn't likely to gain you a lot of cash. The lucrative ones, if any, won't be ready yet and none will be DPP.

Maybe GnR isn't good this year for the backs either?

That makes sense.

I agree that GnR is getting harder to implement this year. Interestingly it was only perhaps a few weeks ago that I was saying that a more value oriented (midpriced) side made a lot more sense to me this year - but I couldn’t find many appealing midpricers to execute it, especially with a pretty good crop of rookies to pick in their place.

A few weeks on and the mid pricers have turned up too, leaving is spoilt for choice!

 

[Manikato1]

As I understand it, this year Clubs name a squad of 23 with the sub being named one hour before the game. In previous years anyone of the 22 could start on ground but that 22 was usually locked in, barring a last minute injury. The sub was named from one of the four emergencies listed.

Now when teams drop on a Thursday we actually won’t know which four of the five players named on the bench will be playing and who will be the sub until one hour before the game. This makes picking rookies for SC at the start of the year something of a lottery.

Rookie X is named on the bench for the last game on Saturday evening when teams come out on Thursday night. You want to start him in your team but unless the Club has made an official announcement he will be playing you risk foregoing other rookies playing earlier only to find he is named the sub one hour before the game on Saturday.

At least last year we knew who was in the 22 on Thursday night and could plan accordingly. Now we have no idea.

 

[randomcliche]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764899082643140708

View: https://twitter.com/RalphyHeraldSun/status/1764899082643140708

I think team umpire needs a section in injuries list. Move Razor there please.

 

[Chumpion]

As I understand it, this year Clubs name a squad of 23 with the sub being named one hour before the game. In previous years anyone of the 22 could start on ground but that 22 was usually locked in, barring a last minute injury. The sub was named from one of the four emergencies listed.

Now when teams drop on a Thursday we actually won’t know which four of the five players named on the bench will be playing and who will be the sub until one hour before the game. This makes picking rookies for SC at the start of the year something of a lottery.

Rookie X is named on the bench for the last game on Saturday evening when teams come out on Thursday night. You want to start him in your team but unless the Club has made an official announcement he will be playing you risk foregoing other rookies playing earlier only to find he is named the sub one hour before the game on Saturday.

At least last year we knew who was in the 22 on Thursday night and could plan accordingly. Now we have no idea.

Agree it will be a nightmare but we did have a similar issue last year where coaches could change the sub and make changes to the team etc. reckon the collectively fantasy world hates the sub rules with a passion.. just make it a 5 man bench and save us the misery!

 

[freowho]

I think there's a subtlety in here that people might be missing a little amongst the hype.

To get to a top-level team for the last N rounds, you need to generate around (or more than) $3.5M cash 'value' past the $10M we all start with.

Some of that value comes when you start a $550k Mid who becomes a keeper premium and rises to $650k. Most of it comes from rookies.

If you set aside some trades for injuries (5 maybe to be kind?), then the remaining 35 trades you have need to generate $100k on average. So the question is - are those mid-pricers going to get there?

Unless they morph into a premium, you have to trade them out as a cash making prospect. Which means a lot of the time, you'd be better off with a rookie, because they make cash that much more easily.

Food for thought.

It's not a mid pricer vs a rookie. It's 2 midpricers vs a rookie and a premium. And the best cash production is often in the first crop of the season. And this year's first crop is a bumper.

 

[Vicwood]

Is 1-2 weeks enough though?

Darcy will miss more weeks during the season. Who was the dummy who agreed to a extension to 2030.

 

[freowho]

C

Darcy will miss more weeks during the season. Who was the dummy who agreed to a extension to 2030.

Clark Keating only ever had to make it to the grand final.







It is frustrating though.

 

[NDD]

Howard missing for 4-5 weeks and now Webster for 7.
Could replace either of them, he's tall-ish enough to cover Howard.
Have no idea what he could average at the Saints, sometimes those pre-season games are the best score they ever had.

Russty that link is //trigshappyplace.com/

 

[NT.Thunder]

I get this feeling that many teams will be pulled apart come Sunday after R0 and we;ll see an increase on round 0 premiums that were never really considered before. It's going to take some will power and would be interesting to see the before/after ownership levels.

Is anyone going into the season with R0 premiums with the view to trade them on their byes to new premiums.

 

[Darkie]

I get this feeling that many teams will be pulled apart come Sunday after R0 and we;ll see an increase on round 0 premiums that were never really considered before. It's going to take some will power and would be interesting to see the before/after ownership levels.

Is anyone going into the season with R0 premiums with the view to trade them on their byes to new premiums.

I think you have to have quite a strong view on matchups or the like to make this worthwhile as something that you plan for. Historically trading to cover a donut was considered borderline at best for coaches focused on overall ranking, and it’s basically trading to cover a half donut as I see it.

There may be opportunities to do this type of trade through the season - maybe someone you started cops an in game knock and has a really high BE, or there’s a low or negative BE guy you want to jump on - but I don’t think those scenarios can be planned for in a specific way … I think it is best to just bear in mind that they could occur, without relying on them, and assess them as they arise.

 

[Locky27]

I'm more worried about a mid pricer I never considered having a big score, and then trying to fit them into my team.

 

[Connoisseur]

I'm more worried about a mid pricer I never considered having a big score, and then trying to fit them into my team.

How much weight do we place on Round 0 and do greatly readjust predicted averages in either direction off the back of one match. Only stays in the price cycle for one match as well. Is there a reason they were not considered prior and what arbitrary number will force ownership movements, restructures, etc?

 

[Locky27]

How much weight do we place on Round 0 and do greatly readjust predicted averages in either direction off the back of one match. Only stays in the price cycle for one match as well. Is there a reason they were not considered prior and what arbitrary number will force ownership movements, restructures, etc?

I totally agree, but I'm afraid that even knowing this won't stop last minute stupidity.

 

[Montyjnr]

I'm more worried about a mid pricer I never considered having a big score, and then trying to fit them into my team.

i can see everyone bringing in Thomson Dow.

 

[scarfaceclaw]

I change my premium mids constantly. No one really ticks all the boxes. Trading out Marshall for Jackson made me some cash. (I might trade him back) We shall see when the wheel stops spinning!

 

[NT.Thunder]

i can see everyone bringing in Thomson Dow.

Is that such a bad thing though? He's been in and out of my side depending on structure, haven't seen his name mentioned much but seems to be getting a good crack at it.

 

[Montyjnr]

Is that such a bad thing though? He's been in and out of my side depending on structure, haven't seen his name mentioned much but seems to be getting a good crack at it.

Not at all - he is in my team currently.

I actually wish there wasn't a free look at him Round Zero so he remains more unique...

 

[froffershanners]

For those keen on starting Jackson now with the Darcy injury on what line are you going to start him?

Feel like forwards are flushed with mid-priced/rookie options that would be hard to pass up so potentially starting at R2 if Grundy doesn't perform in round 0 is a better option?

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

For those keen on starting Jackson now with the Darcy injury on what line are you going to start him?

Feel like forwards are flushed with mid-priced/rookie options that would be hard to pass up so potentially starting at R2 if Grundy doesn't perform in round 0 is a better option?

Yep contemplating this myself, quite like my current forward line so having a think if R2 is the way to go for Jackson.
At least we get a free look at Grundy this week.

 

[NT.Thunder]

What does Grundy need to go at to make $100k and does that put him close to keeper territory?

I'm not good with the numbers side of this game, more gut feel, but if he goes 105-110 what does that make him roughly over 7-8 rounds?