Started with the rookies, then Daicos and Gawn for Captain picks. Then looked at which 4 players I think can enter the mid top 8 this year.
Had to drop Gulden because 6 round 0 players is too many. As it is, I've still 5 but don't know who to cull now. Each has a strong value proposition except for Daicos who has a captain proposition and who I also don't want to have to hate-watch for the first month. Anyway, Gulden down to Martin (future D6 and/or floating supersub) and Massimo, getting the Gibcus/Reid/Coffield issue off field.
So I'm now not having any more than 1 missing premo in each of the first round of byes, except for round 5, with Nick and Reg. Not the way I want to do it but which of those guys to drop?
1. Don't want to hate-watch Nick. I guess I could go to Tom Stewart in a pinch but there is zero value there and I lose a captain option
2. Check out Tom Green's first 4 matches. He could go top 8 mid this year and part of it will be due to that first month.
3. Touk at 545k is ridiculous value. He should still be cheapish after round 3 but that new price rise plus a trade isn't the best. Think he can re-enter the top 8 this year.
4. There's a good chance that Max will be at least a top 3 ruck. I could trade into him after his bye but that is at the cost of 5 shots at some big scores. Will he still be sub-600? Besides, my other options are an injured Darcy, an English I can't afford and Briggs, who also has a bye.
5. Reg could have 150k in him. 120k at least. He should be either a keeper or the easiest luxury trade ever.
In order to avoid their byes, I risk being able to cash in on the things that make them such viable starters. I think only Grundy is the one I don't 95% see myself finishing with and he's projecting as a very solid stepping stone.
I would prefer Gibcus to one of Coffield and Reid. Just don't know which one. None of the 3 inspire me and I want none of them on field. I think Coffield looks like being a real 250k guy by round 10. Totally meh, whereas Reid and Gibcus both look like having that spike game in them.
Sharp hasn't looked likely at all. Has sub risk written all over him, even if he does make the 23. Can see him getting subbed off 4 times in the first 6 weeks, only to pick up an injury and spend the next 13 weeks either in the medical room or the WAFL. Maybe he comes back in round 19 for a couple of decent scores nobody can use and ruins his 2025 starting price. Just a real bad feeling about this pick.
So those 2 rookie positions are problematic. Unless someone like a Loeman or Macrae comes out as viable, I can't afford to upgrade both of Sharp and Coffield/Reid. If I accept Coffield/Reid and forego Gibcus, then I can go Sharp > Lazzaro and I gotta say that Lazzaro looks ok. I tried getting the required 30k from elsewhere and the only slightly palatable one was Martin > Holmes but I don't trust that Scott will having Holmes off HB long enough to get his DPP. With Martin doing pretty much as he pleases over at the Dons, hopefully other Scott can resist needing to show everyone he knows more than the rest of us again by bunging him back on the wing. Maybe Martin > Fisher?
I count 10 keepers and 2 pretty decent non-mid breakout candidates in Martin and Rankine. I've got 4 MPs in that 200k - 300k range. I like that number because it leaves a decent pull of other MPs to pick from if my selections turn out wrong. The 300k-400k MPs like Powell, Wardlaw and Fisher can be targets for if Martin or Rankine don't work.
