Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, just wondering if its necessary to go into the bye rounds with 100k+. I picked up Swan last week and am considering Ellis>Hallahan and Dunstan for either Cutler (via Grimes, 355k left over) or Dahlhaus/Cyril (via Dusty, 35-50k left).

If I did go Dahlhaus I would keep Dusty in MIDs until one of Lloyd, JKH or Impey reach peak and a mid rookie shows himself. Cheers mate

Hey bloke,
where possible I think you should try and take $300-$400k into the byes. They are probably the most important trading period of the season, particularly now they are in mooing season. It won't be possible for everyone to have that much, but you will find your options a lot easier to deal with if you have a bank to work with.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Thought I'd check back in with you as the radical overhaul of my side is progressing. If you could run your eye over it that would be great.

Still short a Defender. Could go Houli or Enright this week if I can generate the cash. Anyone else at good value?

Pyke and J. Cameron the other two issues but holding at this stage as I want to focus on culling rookies when they are ready.

Thanks again.

Hi Sang,
how much cash do you have?

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rowsus,

With the byes coming up as well as a few rookies who will struggle to make byes (nor too mention some injuries). Do I trade this week or hold until following week? Need to improve mids with a Fyfe or a Watson via say Dunstan or Tyson as well as fwds in Fasolo or Higgins
Have good cash in $547k on 23 trades

My team is currently:

B: Mitchell, McVeigh, Swallow, Jaensch, McDonald, Langdon (Langford, Laidler)
M Ablett, Libba, Beams, Murphy, Polec, Dunstan, Crouch, Tyson (Taylor, Buckley)
R: Sandi, Minson (Thurlow, Currie)
F: Danger, Martin, Pav, Zorko, Higgins, FASOLO ( JHK, Lloyd)

 

[TeeButOne]

Rowsus,

With R8 coming up next week (generally considered to be a no-trade week), I was wondering if it was a crazy idea to NOT trade this week. Last week I did the double-downgrade, and now have about $450k in the bank. In theory I could upgrade a rookie or two to premiums, but (a) they'd miss a game in the next few weeks anyway, (b) I'd have less cash going INTO the BYES, and (c) I can't find many premiums this week that shout out at me.

At this stage, the only rookies that I would consider trading out this week are McDonald (R8 BYE, B/E of 62) and Fasolo (R8 BYE), as the rest either (a) still have cash to make, and/or (b) have the all-important R10 BYE. Even then I think holding onto Fasolo is smarter.

Thoughts?

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus

I have $738k in the bank, could you give me some advice to where I should spend the money.

At the moment I'm thinking of a double upgrade:

Dunstan -> Montagna and Polec -> Watson

or

Dunstan -> Montagna/Watson and Impey -> Zorko/Gray

or

Dunstan -> Montagna/Watson and Georgiou -> D.Swallow/Hibberd

I'm hoping Mumford returns very soon too.

Thanks

DEF:
S.Mitchell, Enright, Hanley, Simpson, McDonald, Langford (Langdon, Georgiou)

MID:
Ablett, Pendles, Cotchin, Beams, Aish, Dunstan, Polec, N.Robertson (Crouch, J.Hunt)

RUCK:
Sandilands, Mumford (Derickx, King)

FWD:
Dusty, Danger, Pavlich, Fasolo, Higgins, Lloyd (Impey, JKH)

Hey maken7,
I think it's too early to get rid of Polec. He's looking the best of them so far, so keep him a while yet.
Joey's looking good, but when you compare the prices, and recent history, you'd have to take Watson in front of him. I'd target Joey after the byes, if you still want him, when his price is more reasonable. I think I'd get a Forward before a Def. At the price, I like Zorko better than Gray.
So Dunstan/Impey ---> Watson/Zorko looks pretty good.
Good luck

 

[Manikato1]

Hi Man,
Trading is not going to be easy this week for those without a good cash reserve. There just any good downgrade targets, so it's either do what you can with the cash you have, or accept a lesser quality downgrade option. Salem and O'Rourke are possibilities, but I'd really rather see what happens with them next week, before taking one of them a week early. I don't have a lot of faith in Hallahan sticking around long enough. Hawthorn don't have a great record of playing their Rookies too much. J Lloyd hasn't inspired confidence either.

If Chappy doesn't play, you either neary forced to go Chappy ---> Pav, or take the risk on Hallahan or Salem a week early, going Ellis to Hallahan/Salem, which will give you enough to go Fasolo ---> Pav, but that largely depends on Fasolo's prognossis. If Chappy plays, it's a fairly simple Kennedy ---> Pav, still leaving you with the quandary about whether to chop Ellis this week. Keep in mind it is a really good idea to hit the byes with some cash, if possible.

Not much help, but it's a tricky situation this week, with no positive downgrade targets.
Good luck

Thanks Rowsus. Yes I knew it would be ugly.

 

[tracygrims]

So Dunstan/Impey ---> Watson/Zorko looks pretty good.
Good luck

these are going to be exactly my trades this week too!

 

[maken7]

Hey maken7,
I think it's too early to get rid of Polec. He's looking the best of them so far, so keep him a while yet.
Joey's looking good, but when you compare the prices, and recent history, you'd have to take Watson in front of him. I'd target Joey after the byes, if you still want him, when his price is more reasonable. I think I'd get a Forward before a Def. At the price, I like Zorko better than Gray.
So Dunstan/Impey ---> Watson/Zorko looks pretty good.
Good luck

Watson/Zorko it is!

Cheers Rowsus

 

[Rowsus]

rowsus could u do some analysis on nathan jones from melb. never really been sc relevant with avg around 90 but this year has spiked up to 115. is there any reason to justify this large increase - more time on ground, increased disposals, efficiency etc. he seems to be leading from the front on field.

There's no doubt there has been some changes to N Jones profile as a player. He has more help this season, from better educated players, than he has ever had. He has always been a good player in heavy traffic, but Roos seems to have him doing something different this year. In some games he's playing a match up, and running with players in a "I can beat you in a one on one" role. Old school football! The playing with better skilled and educated players, and the slightly new role seem to be working for him.
His TOG is running at a career high, but certainly not much above previous levels. Every one of his possession markers are running at career Highs this season, too. Kicks, Handballs, Disposal and CP's. His K:H is also at a career high mark. Interestingly enough, his goals are slightly down, and his SC to DT is near a career low, and his Disp Eff is a career low! The question that needs to be asked is, is all this maintainable? My thoughts are no. I have little doubt he will record a career best season. I do doubt he can score at 110 from here. There would appear to be better options available around the same price, though if you do decide to back him to keep going, he should be a POD, a positive or negative POD, but definitely a POD.

 

[Rowsus]

When is it time to dump Libba???

My general answer to that would be, when you have filled your team with 22 Keepers.
The other option is to downgrade him next week to Salem/O'Rourke, so you have some cash to work with in rounds 9 and 10's busy trade period.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, would appreciate if you could have a quick look at my team and give thoughts on this week's trading idea...

Polec to Watson
McDonlad to Hallahan

Cheers

Hi Juzzo,
on one hand it doesn't feel right. Polec isn't ready to milk yet, and I'm worried about Hallahan getting a regular game this year. On the other hand, you don't have a lot of options for milking in your Midfield. It looks like Kelly and Polec potetially have about the same amount of growth left to come. If you decide to go ahead, maybe use Kelly instead. It might also be worth considering Salem or O'Rourke instead of Hallahan. There is definite risk attached, but there should be more opportunity for one or both of them to develop a bit of JS.
Good luck

 

[Deeman1]

There's no doubt there has been some changes to N Jones profile as a player. He has more help this season, from better educated players, than he has ever had. He has always been a good player in heavy traffic, but Roos seems to have him doing something different this year. In some games he's playing a match up, and running with players in a "I can beat you in a one on one" role. Old school football! The playing with better skilled and educated players, and the slightly new role seem to be working for him.
His TOG is running at a career high, but certainly not much above previous levels. Every one of his possession markers are running at career Highs this season, too. Kicks, Handballs, Disposal and CP's. His K:H is also at a career high mark. Interestingly enough, his goals are slightly down, and his SC to DT is near a career low, and his Disp Eff is a career low! The question that needs to be asked is, is all this maintainable? My thoughts are no. I have little doubt he will record a career best season. I do doubt he can score at 110 from here. There would appear to be better options available around the same price, though if you do decide to back him to keep going, he should be a POD, a positive or negative POD, but definitely a POD.

Great work Rowsus.

Jones has been a great player for MFC, if only he was in my SC team. He is in both my SCDL teams and has been great for my win/loss ratio.

Just a quick one on Disposal Efficiency. I noticed Jones DE has been reasonably consistent with between 72-76, but has dropped this year to around 69. He is generally a contested ball player and one would expect their DE to be lower than a seagull type player.

Generally what is regarded as a good DE I'm terms of %?

I would have thought 70% was average, but maybe in the days of contested footy 70% is good.

What are your thoughts?

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Hey MMM,
some of your highlighted players are not so deep into the problem basket yet, they are just teetering on the edge.
The biggest problems appear to be:
Merrett J: $371,900 B/E 87, last 3: 70, 58, 79, next 3 weeks: Bull, Bris, Syd
Suckling: $404,900 B/E 123, last 3: 122, 63, 58, next 3 weeks: StK, Syd, Bye
Dunstan: $311,400 B/E 70, last 3: 55, 52, 66, next 3 weeks: Haw, Carl, GC
The rest of them aren't too bad. Suckling could easily belt out a 100+ score this week, but still lose cash.
Merrett and Dunstan seem to be a line ball on their prospects of beating their B/E's this week.
Looking at the trade in prospects:
Hibberd: $525,100 B/E 80
Watson: $533,600 B/E 131
Parker: $501,500 B/E 90
I love Hibberd as a player, but he is potentially the worst priced of the 3 of them. His price suggests you want him to score at about 107, where as Watson's says 109 and Parker's 102. Even though he will likely rise in price this week, a correction can't be far away. Against that, if you're really keen on him, you are facing a price drop on Suckling, and a rise on Hibberd. I'd probably go Hibberd and Watson this week.
Good luck.

Thanks for that Row, appreciate the sound advice. I had another thought this morning, wanting to know whatcha think about it.
Jackson Merrett out for Zorko and Dunstan out for Cutler (if not named sub) via LMac DPP

The reasoning behind this is:
1. Watson still has a pretty high B/E so he might lose cash. If not, he won't go up too much in price.
2. If I don't get Cutler in this week to build my warchest up, I won't have much cash left for the round 9 and round 10 byes.
3. LMac should hold his B/E or drop very slightly in price. Will upgrade him for Watson in round 8.
4. The most important thing after all these is I will have enough cash in round 9 to go from Tyson to Jelwood.

Obviously my points won't be as good as if I traded in Watson this week but I will have enough money to get Jelwood in round 9.
Key here is because I don't see any good upgrades down the road after Cutler.

So which should I prioritize?
Watson and Zorko in this week for the points and hope a downgrade appears somewhere in round 8 or 9.
Cutler and Zorko in this week for the cash and grab Jelwood in round 9.

Thanks mate!

 

[Loboda1963]

Hi Rowsus

Can you please look at my team. I want to do two trades and am unsure which way to go.

Option 1: X Ellis to O'Rourke, Dunstan to Watson, leaves me with $19,000. Have an extra premium but have to rely on downgrades throught the byes to generate cash and further upgrade my team.

Option 2: X Ellis to O'Rourke, Dunstan to Salem, leaves me with $375,900. No Watson but hopefully can get Selwood and Swan in Round 9.

Do I risk losing ground on my 3K ranking by taking Option 2 or lack of cash generation for byes by taking Option 1.

As always welcome your thoughts.

Lobo

 

[Couch Coach]

Rowsus,

I'm holding fire on my trades until Round 9 where I plan to bring in Swan, Jelwood and Cotchin all in.

I only have Ablett, Pendles and Beams as premiums at the moment.

I have looked at bringing in Watson or Griffen in but I think the first 3 may average more. (I am using your RAMP tool to review averages.)

Do you have an opinion as to which mids are best to bring in?

Thank you in advance.

 

[dyii]

Hey Rowsus, has your opinion of Zorko changed now he's shown he can keep up his scoring? I'm considering bringing him in but am still a bit hesitant.

Right now I'm a bit worried with my bank, I have 300k and going Dunstan to Griffen leaves me with only around 90k. In trading Sam Lloyd in last week I took a massive hit as due to the DPP trade Dusty went to the mids and I was forced to play Lloyd at F6. There are big rumors he'll be dropped this week and I have a feeling we may not see him for a fair bit. I brought him in with the mindset that I would be in a bigger pickle with my round 8 bye but thought he could score at a level which would make him worth it. My question is whether its worth trading him out to a mid rookie, bringing Martin back and then not being forced to play a rookie at F6? Cheers mate

 

[Bobbie]

Hi Rowsus. I have $163K in the bank so I feel I need to generate some cash for the byes. I'd like to target Swan and Selwood after their bye. Just wondering if you think I should do two downgrades to build the kitty or look at a one up/one down?

Downgrade options are thin. Perhaps McDonald to Cutler and Dunstan to Hallahan (I think this gives me around $500K). But, as always, JS is a worry.

Or do the Cutler trade and upgrade Impey/Lloyd/JKH to Rioli/Zorko. Cheers.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

You seem a bit busy by all the posts. If you have time I am looking at a mid upgrade this week. I am avoiding Rnd 8 players even though Swanny looks like good value. I'm avoiding Jobe because I don't think Mark Thompson is trying to win a premiership, I think he is experimenting too much and holding the fort for Prince James. I'm avoiding Griffin because he looks injured. I've looked at what I think they can average for the rest of the year given their current average, their price and price drop for the year and their breakevens. The 3 that appear to have value in my opinion are Mundy, Priddis and Jack. I know you think Mundy is Red Rooster, Priddis and Jack are probably not KFC but do you think they might be Red Rooster with free hot chips? I have Ablett, Beams, Murphy, Cotchin and Kennedy so I'll still have 2 mid spots available after this trade to bring in a bit more KFC after the byes.

I was also wondering if you could table Chris Mayne? I don't think he is a top 10 forward but he is so cheap.

Mange Tak

I guess the approach we take with players of 120+ games experience is, that most of them have set their scoring levels and patterns. Unless their is evidence to the contrary, we just have faith that they will score at or around that level. Looking at your 3 candidates:
Jack K, 144 games, ave this year 99.8, price $543,200, previous seasons 109, 112, 81, 100 - level 109
Priddis, 157 games, ave this year 100.2, price $496,900, previous seasons 101, 110, 114, 109 - level 109
Mundy, 192 games, ave this year 99.7, price $491,600, previous seasons 104, 89, 107, 94 - level 105
So if you believe/are happy with the level I have set for them, they should score at for the remainder of the season:
Jack 112, Priddis 112, Mundy 107
Looking at their respective draws, games left against the top 3, 4th - 8th, 9th - 13th, 14th - 18th:
Jack K - 5, 2, 5, 4. - FTB tough to easy -20%, +27% - Draw factor 100.5%
Priddis - 1, 7, 5, 3. - FTB tough to easy -5%, +8% - Draw factor 101.2%
Mundy - 5, 2, 3, 6. - FTB tough to easy -6%, +12% - Draw factor 102.6%
So all Things considered, it looks like Priddis. The near $50k Price difference over Jack pushes him to the front. Though my gut tells me Jack might outscore him, I'm not sure it is worth the extra $50k.

I'll do a full table on Mayne for you in this weeks Trade Tables thread.
Good luck

EDIT - I'm not sure I agree with your assessment on Bomber. Everything I've read says he wouldn't let his kids win a game of tiddly-winks unless they earnt it, he is so competitive. I can't see him just holding PJ's spot, and not trying to win a flag.

 

[quickie]

Hi Rowsus,

Ignoring the byes, who is your favourite sub 450k defenders? I am thinking of waiting on Hanley to get within that range, and will likely be getting him unless there are better options.

Sorry if this has been asked already.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

^^ This is GOLD Rowsus. I love the way you analyze players and situations. So many layers of analysis complexity presented so clearly