Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

With the low scoring and appartent defensive mindset drom coaches, i was thinking is this having an effect on the scoring of forwards this year or is it just a matter of forward inconsistency?

I'm not sure the best way to test this hypothesis; maybe take the total points of the top 50 forwards and compare them to the previous say two years?

Seeing as Forwards scores are largely affected by goal kicking, and goal kicking obviously affects scoreboard scores, why not just look at the average score for each team? The following figures are just to round 6 for each of the seasons listed.
2011 - 91.9
2012 - 90.9
2013 - 97.1
2014 - 85.6
So I think you have a point there, baz. It looks like Forwards are scoring less on the scoreboard, and that is translating to lower SC scores as well.

 

[Rowsus]

Is this the week to get Watson? Still high break even but I think he will dominate against dogs
What do you think about
McDonald>cutler
Tyson>hodge
Leaves me with around 370k in the bank which will be used on both watson and griffin next week?

With a B/E of 131, Watson is actually a chance to go up in price. I will probably be grabbing him this week, but as you pointed out, even if he manages to go up in price this week, it won't be too much. There's certainly a lack of downgrade targets on the horizon, so McDonald ---> Cutler doesn't seem too bad.

 

[Rowsus]

Up against you in Div 1 this week mate, just looked and our projected scores are dead even on 2128 so looks like a cracking match-up

Anyway here's my likely trades for the week...... let the mind games begin!

Templeton -> Watson
B.Martin -> Burgoyne

My 2128 includes my intended trades of Watson and Swan in.
Add to that, that I have only beaten my projected score once this season, in round 1 where all the rookies are 0, and I think you might cover me by around 100-120. Still, I'm looking forward to it. Good luck, Drew.

 

[freowho]

I guess the approach we take with players of 120+ games experience is, that most of them have set their scoring levels and patterns. Unless their is evidence to the contrary, we just have faith that they will score at or around that level. Looking at your 3 candidates:
Jack K, 144 games, ave this year 99.8, price $543,200, previous seasons 109, 112, 81, 100 - level 109
Priddis, 157 games, ave this year 100.2, price $496,900, previous seasons 101, 110, 114, 109 - level 109
Mundy, 192 games, ave this year 99.7, price $491,600, previous seasons 104, 89, 107, 94 - level 105
So if you believe/are happy with the level I have set for them, they should score at for the remainder of the season:
Jack 112, Priddis 112, Mundy 107
Looking at their respective draws, games left against the top 3, 4th - 8th, 9th - 13th, 14th - 18th:
Jack K - 5, 2, 5, 4. - FTB tough to easy -20%, +27% - Draw factor 100.5%
Priddis - 1, 7, 5, 3. - FTB tough to easy -5%, +8% - Draw factor 101.2%
Mundy - 5, 2, 3, 6. - FTB tough to easy -6%, +12% - Draw factor 102.6%
So all Things considered, it looks like Priddis. The near $50k Price difference over Jack pushes him to the front. Though my gut tells me Jack might outscore him, I'm not sure it is worth the extra $50k.

I'll do a full table on Mayne for you in this weeks Trade Tables thread.
Good luck

EDIT - I'm not sure I agree with your assessment on Bomber. Everything I've read says he wouldn't let his kids win a game of tiddly-winks unless they earnt it, he is so competitive. I can't see him just holding PJ's spot, and not trying to win a flag.

Thanks Rowsus

Well laid out and easy to understand. Gold class.

I've always thought of Priddis as being a bit of Red Rooster but looking at his scoring history and given it was injury interrupted last year he's a bit better than I thought.

Cheers

 

[Lukus193]

If you were in my shoes and had Pyke at R2, would you hold or upgrade to Cox/Minson/Jacobs?

Or am I over-reacting to 2 poor recent scores?

Thanks Rowsus!

 

[sangkuriang]

Hi Sang,
how much cash do you have?

95000 only in the bank.

Cameron to Petrie is another option. Need to take a risk or two.

 

[Courtesans]

Hi Rowsus,

I am intrigued as to what the better players will do over the bye rounds. At a guess most will do nothing in rd.8 and use anywhere between 3-6 trades in rd. 9 and 10 to almost complete their team. To do it, a player would need, at a guess 500-600k to achieve it.
Downgrade options I guess put a fly in the ointment.
What do you think is the way to go.
Slainte!

 

[Prochard]

Hey Rowsus,
Sorry for giving you ALOT more work, but can you give me some feedback on my trading plan for the upcoming weeks?
Round 7:
Mcdonald>Hodge
Martin>Cutler
425k left
Round 8:
Tyson>griffin( 185k loss)
Crouch>watson (235k loss)
Approximately 5k left
Round 9:
Polec>Selwood(costs around 150k)
Hampson>goldstein(about even)
Watts>lennon(200k profit)
55k left
Round10:
Aish>cunnington (30-50k deficit)
Robertson>Donut(165k profit)
Lloyd>petrie/cloke( 160k ish)
5-25k left 0 donuts copped throughout the byes
Round 11:
Langdon>defense donut(+210k)
Langford>hanley(170k)
60k left
Round 12:
Gray-morabito/Salem/Freeman (100k profit)
Lloyd-Petrie/cloke(160k)
Round 13:
Lennon-forward donut (180k+)
Cutler>In form defense premium priced at around 450k-480k

By now this will be what my team look like
Defense:
Mitchell Swallow Mcveigh Hanley Hodge Cutler (georgious, donut to loophole the other 2)
Mid:
Ablett Pendlebury Cotchin Selwood Watson Griffin Cunnington Beams (Gray Donut for loophole)
Ruck:
Goldstein Sandilands (Currie, King-another donut)
Forward:
Dangerfield Zorko Franklin Roughhead Petrie Pavlich( Cloke donut to loophole cloke and petrie)
Team will be completed by round 13.
Thoughts?

 

[uR_TeaM]

Hi Rowsus,

I am intrigued as to what the better players will do over the bye rounds. At a guess most will do nothing in rd.8 and use anywhere between 3-6 trades in rd. 9 and 10 to almost complete their team. To do it, a player would need, at a guess 500-600k to achieve it.
Downgrade options I guess put a fly in the ointment.
What do you think is the way to go.
Slainte!

That is a really good question which i would love to find out as well, i'm sitting in a position that i have never been before and all of it comes down to luck (well for me anyways ). I'm actually not sure what to do from here onwards... Ive just traded x.ellis/dunstan to cutler/hshaw this week and have approx 260k left in the bank, not sure if that is enough going into the byes.

 

[Drew]

With a B/E of 131, Watson is actually a chance to go up in price. I will probably be grabbing him this week, but as you pointed out, even if he manages to go up in price this week, it won't be too much. There's certainly a lack of downgrade targets on the horizon, so McDonald ---> Cutler doesn't seem too bad.

My 2128 includes my intended trades of Watson and Swan in.
Add to that, that I have only beaten my projected score once this season, in round 1 where all the rookies are 0, and I think you might cover my by around 100-120. Still, I'm looking forward to it. Good luck, Drew.

Look like we're both on the Watson train then - Toot Toot! (I suspect that means he's breaking both legs and getting concussed, but what the hell) Good luck though - maybe it's our week though to smash out 2400+!

 

[happydays]

Forward:
Dangerfield Zorko Franklin Roughhead Petrie Pavlich( Cloke donut to loophole cloke and petrie)
Team will be completed by round 13.
Thoughts?

I like the Cloke Petrie loophole. Most rounds, they will underperform (for Cloke, that the 30-50 range ). But there will be a round - hopefully, big fwd's struggling with new setups - where Cloke (and Petrie) gets on a 8goal, 10 contested mark, 180 point monster.

 

[tracygrims]

So I think you have a point there, baz. It looks like Forwards are scoring less on the scoreboard, and that is translating to lower SC scores as well.

I think the lower scores might also be due to many premium mids/rucks being listed ad forwards this year.
Of the top 6 from last year we have just Riewoldt and Dangerfield remaining.
Names like Rockliff, Bartel, Johnson, Cox, Nicnat, Walker all losing fwd eligibilty also hurts.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

With the byes coming up as well as a few rookies who will struggle to make byes (nor too mention some injuries). Do I trade this week or hold until following week? Need to improve mids with a Fyfe or a Watson via say Dunstan or Tyson as well as fwds in Fasolo or Higgins
Have good cash in $547k on 23 trades

My team is currently:

B: Mitchell, McVeigh, Swallow, Jaensch, McDonald, Langdon (Langford, Laidler)
M Ablett, Libba, Beams, Murphy, Polec, Dunstan, Crouch, Tyson (Taylor, Buckley)
R: Sandi, Minson (Thurlow, Currie)
F: Danger, Martin, Pav, Zorko, Higgins, FASOLO ( JHK, Lloyd)

Hey Slammer,
I have a vague recollection that your focus is more League orientated than over all ranking. If that is the case, how you are matching up against this weeks opponent should be the deciding factor if you trade or not. If you have them covered hold your trades. If you need a boost grab Fyfe or Watson this week, my preference is Watson. If overall is your focus, you can't afford to not trade this week. You will be an upgrade behind most of the other teams if you don't trade. I'd be tempted to hold Fasolo. It's a risk, but it could pay off for those that do it.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus,

With R8 coming up next week (generally considered to be a no-trade week), I was wondering if it was a crazy idea to NOT trade this week. Last week I did the double-downgrade, and now have about $450k in the bank. In theory I could upgrade a rookie or two to premiums, but (a) they'd miss a game in the next few weeks anyway, (b) I'd have less cash going INTO the BYES, and (c) I can't find many premiums this week that shout out at me.

At this stage, the only rookies that I would consider trading out this week are McDonald (R8 BYE, B/E of 62) and Fasolo (R8 BYE), as the rest either (a) still have cash to make, and/or (b) have the all-important R10 BYE. Even then I think holding onto Fasolo is smarter.

Thoughts?

It's better to have the Premium score this week, and have him miss a round during the byes. The bottom line is, whoever holds that spot in your team will miss a game, unless it is one of the 6 players you will trade around the byes in rounds 9 and 10. If McDonald is the only one you are happy to move on, I'd upgrade him without waiting. I'd be prepared to see what Fasolo can offer in round 9. I believe he should be back by then.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Great work Rowsus.

Jones has been a great player for MFC, if only he was in my SC team. He is in both my SCDL teams and has been great for my win/loss ratio.

Just a quick one on Disposal Efficiency. I noticed Jones DE has been reasonably consistent with between 72-76, but has dropped this year to around 69. He is generally a contested ball player and one would expect their DE to be lower than a seagull type player.

Generally what is regarded as a good DE I'm terms of %?

I would have thought 70% was average, but maybe in the days of contested footy 70% is good.

What are your thoughts?

Of the top 20 disposal winners last season, the highest DE's were Selwood J with 77.1, Pendlebury with 77.0 and Goddard with 76.5. The lowest 3 DE's were O'Keefe with 63.0, Cotchin 63.4 and Swan with 63.6. There 10 players in the top 20 over 70%, and 10 players between 63.0 and 69.9%. The competition average was 70.2% (nice guess on your part!). I really think each player needs to be "graded" against their type. "Seagulls" should be able to maintain 75%, the in and under, always under pressure player is doing well to maintain 65-67%.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks for that Row, appreciate the sound advice. I had another thought this morning, wanting to know whatcha think about it.
Jackson Merrett out for Zorko and Dunstan out for Cutler (if not named sub) via LMac DPP

The reasoning behind this is:
1. Watson still has a pretty high B/E so he might lose cash. If not, he won't go up too much in price.
2. If I don't get Cutler in this week to build my warchest up, I won't have much cash left for the round 9 and round 10 byes.
3. LMac should hold his B/E or drop very slightly in price. Will upgrade him for Watson in round 8.
4. The most important thing after all these is I will have enough cash in round 9 to go from Tyson to Jelwood.

Obviously my points won't be as good as if I traded in Watson this week but I will have enough money to get Jelwood in round 9.
Key here is because I don't see any good upgrades down the road after Cutler.

So which should I prioritize?
Watson and Zorko in this week for the points and hope a downgrade appears somewhere in round 8 or 9.
Cutler and Zorko in this week for the cash and grab Jelwood in round 9.

Thanks mate!

It's nicely thought out, and the best part I like is keeping you cashflow ticking over. That is really important, and shouldn't be underestimated.
The only "Watch" on the plan is Selwood's price. He too might be facing a big B/E when you are looking to bring him in. Add to that he plays Fremantle in round 9, where he has Crowleyed before. He only averages under 99 against one team, and that is Freo, where he averages 79!!! He then plays North, where I expect him to score biggish. He might be better targetted in round 10, even though he could be sitting on a big B/E after Crowley. His price could/should be too good to ignore by then, and his B/E not as important.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Can you please look at my team. I want to do two trades and am unsure which way to go.

Option 1: X Ellis to O'Rourke, Dunstan to Watson, leaves me with $19,000. Have an extra premium but have to rely on downgrades throught the byes to generate cash and further upgrade my team.

Option 2: X Ellis to O'Rourke, Dunstan to Salem, leaves me with $375,900. No Watson but hopefully can get Selwood and Swan in Round 9.

Do I risk losing ground on my 3K ranking by taking Option 2 or lack of cash generation for byes by taking Option 1.

As always welcome your thoughts.

Lobo

Hi Lobo,
I think I'd take a short term pain for long term gain approach.
I will admit, it is very risky, taking both Salem and O'Rourke before the bubble, but if you get away with it, it could pay off well. It will also put you on the border line of round 8 exposure, and you would want selection to go your way that week. I think it presents the best possibility for you to move up the rankings during the byes though. If you want to target a top 2,000-2,500 season result go the upgrade this week. If you want to risk dropping your season to top say 5,000, with the hope of pushing into the top 1,500-2,000 arm yourself with some cash for the byes!
Just a Word of warning on Selwood. He will possibly have a reasonable sized B/E in round 9, and he plays Freo that week. Freo are his "nemesis, and he has a worse record against them than anyone else. I will admit, I haven't investigated reasons for this, and someone will probably throw up a concussion affected score to explain it in part. His price could nearly be bottomed out in round 10, where he is due to play North, and expected to score better.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus,

I'm holding fire on my trades until Round 9 where I plan to bring in Swan, Jelwood and Cotchin all in.

I only have Ablett, Pendles and Beams as premiums at the moment.

I have looked at bringing in Watson or Griffen in but I think the first 3 may average more. (I am using your RAMP tool to review averages.)

Do you have an opinion as to which mids are best to bring in?

Thank you in advance.

Certainly Swan and Selwood look good in every team. Read the posts just above this, and you might wait until round 10 for Selwood. Cotchins interesting, and his price looks tempting. I said before the season started, that I expected Cunnington to be a surprise package, and to possibly really score well after the byes, when North's draw opens up a bit. You might consider him, if you want a POD, though I concede Cotchins history is better. Also, if you are running short of cash options, Priddis is an option to return good points per dollars spent. Value can be the key, if/when the dollars dry up!
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, has your opinion of Zorko changed now he's shown he can keep up his scoring? I'm considering bringing him in but am still a bit hesitant.

Right now I'm a bit worried with my bank, I have 300k and going Dunstan to Griffen leaves me with only around 90k. In trading Sam Lloyd in last week I took a massive hit as due to the DPP trade Dusty went to the mids and I was forced to play Lloyd at F6. There are big rumors he'll be dropped this week and I have a feeling we may not see him for a fair bit. I brought him in with the mindset that I would be in a bigger pickle with my round 8 bye but thought he could score at a level which would make him worth it. My question is whether its worth trading him out to a mid rookie, bringing Martin back and then not being forced to play a rookie at F6? Cheers mate

To be honest, I haven't seen anything to make me change my mind about Zorko. I said after he scored his 161 that I wasn't convinced he had re-invented himself to be a genuine Premium, and I'd be surprised if he could go on with it. He had already put the cream on his cake, and it was too late to get him now. And since I said that he has only averaged 85. I'm not sure why you think he has shown he can keep his scoring up. I am still not convinced about him, and won't be getting him. I will say, I think he is currently at about his right price, so those that do like him should possibly move sooner rather than later.

The double edged risk of trading Lloyd out early and taking Hallahan or O'Rourke/Salem seems a little too much risk for the reward. If Griffen was always in your plans, or you'd get him anyway, then you may as well get him this week.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus. I have $163K in the bank so I feel I need to generate some cash for the byes. I'd like to target Swan and Selwood after their bye. Just wondering if you think I should do two downgrades to build the kitty or look at a one up/one down?

Downgrade options are thin. Perhaps McDonald to Cutler and Dunstan to Hallahan (I think this gives me around $500K). But, as always, JS is a worry.

Or do the Cutler trade and upgrade Impey/Lloyd/JKH to Rioli/Zorko. Cheers.

Hi Bobbie,
if Zorko/Rioli were in your planning anyway, you are better to grab them now. If it was just for the sake of an upgrade, then possibly grabbing the cash is of more benefit.
Good luck