Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Zim^zuM]

Just got a quick question if Roughy, what's wrong with him? Is Buddy's absence affecting him? Are there any stats to support a role change? Or is he just in a form slump? Averaging 82 I can't see how I can hold him much longer

Every time I flick onto a Hawks game I see him a the bounce, not rucking, no where near getting a clearance lol, would love an anylsis from someone who has watched hawks closely.

 

[Rowsus]

I have a question Rowsus

What is the highest average that a player has finished the season with?

Cheers in advance.

This is one of those questions that highlights how careful you need to be, when using some of the better known stat sites. There is a site out there, whose stats would "seriously" have us believe the answer is Jason Tutt with an average of 147 in 2011! That site only has Tutt playing one game, for a score of 147 in that year, when he actually played 3 games for an average of 85! (and since then has played 16 games for an average of 43.6! In fact he has played 19 games in all, for a 147 score mixed with 18 other games that average out at 44.8! ). The answer to the best of my knowlege is:
2006 J Brown 10 games at 140.5
2009 G Ablett jr 19 games at 140.1
2012 G Ablett jr 20 games at 138.4
2005 L Hodge 21 games at 135
2008 G Ablett jr 18 games at 132.2
2005 B Hall 22 games at 131.8
2006 C Judd 19 games at 131.8
2010 B Goddard 21 games 130.2
They may be the only players to have had 130+ seasons. Keep in mind, GAJ has 3 other seasons just outside this list. 2010 21 games at 129.9, 2013 21 games at 128.9 and 2011 20 games at 127.1!

 

[PC]

This is one of those questions that highlights how careful you need to be, when using some of the better known stat sites. There is a site out there, whose stats would "seriously" have us believe the answer is Jason Tutt with an average of 147 in 2011! That site only has Tutt playing one game, for a score of 147 in that year, when he actually played 3 games for an average of 85! (and since then has played 16 games for an average of 43.6! In fact he has played 19 games in all, for a 147 score mixed with 18 other games that average out at 44.8! ). The answer to the best of my knowlege is:
2006 J Brown 10 games at 140.5
2009 G Ablett jr 19 games at 140.1
2012 G Ablett jr 20 games at 138.4
2005 L Hodge 21 games at 135
2008 G Ablett jr 18 games at 132.2
2005 B Hall 22 games at 131.8
2006 C Judd 19 games at 131.8
2010 B Goddard 21 games 130.2
They may be the only players to have had 130+ seasons. Keep in mind, GAJ has 3 other seasons just outside this list. 2010 21 games at 129.9, 2013 21 games at 128.9 and 2011 20 games at 127.1!

Excellent answer - thanks muchly Rowsus!!

 

[Nathan]

Every time I flick onto a Hawks game I see him a the bounce, not rucking, no where near getting a clearance lol, would love an anylsis from someone who has watched hawks closely.

I've noticed this as well. He doesn't seem to be reading the play, he's trailing the ball into 50m in attack and defence so he's never really in the play always in the background

 

[Rowsus]

Just got a quick question if Roughy, what's wrong with him? Is Buddy's absence affecting him? Are there any stats to support a role change? Or is he just in a form slump? Averaging 82 I can't see how I can hold him much longer

Every time I flick onto a Hawks game I see him a the bounce, not rucking, no where near getting a clearance lol, would love an anylsis from someone who has watched hawks closely.

Zim is right. Roughie is playing quite a bit of time up the ground, and even attending centre bounces as a Ruck Rover. This isn't a new tactic, but seems to being used more so far this season, than last season. The general idea is to make their Forward structure unpredictable, and therefore making it hard for opposition teams to structure their Defence. Hawthorn actually employed similar tactics with Roughie last season, once again particularly earlier in the season. This is reflected in him kicking 12 goals in the first 6 home and away games last season, and 56 in the last 16 games. Roughie averaged 87.5 SC points in those first 6 games last season, and 102.6 in the last 16 games. I think while we may not see an exact replica of last season, I do think as the season wears on he will spend more time up Forward, kick more goals, and score better than he has been so far this season.

 

[Rowsus]

Petrie no chance of averaging 100 from here. 31 year old tall who is showing no signs of his previous scoring potential. His highest score this year isn't even above 100. So unless its as a F7 to loophole I would avoid Petrie.

Part of the deal in spotting value priced players is taking risks. The longer and better history a player has, the smaller the risk. It's putting faith in a player, that he hasn't lost his ability, or competitive spirit, though both of those things can happen. If we were talking about a player with only one or two good seasons, it would certainly dent your confidence in your predictions, but Petrie has 7 out of his last 8 seasons at 89+, and the only "flaw" was a 2 game injury interrupted season. I'm not 100% confident he can drag his season back up to 88, but I don't think it is an unrealistic goal given his history, but there's certainly no guarantee Petrie can/will bounce back. He also has the advantage of North's draw opening up, and becoming easier after the bye. There are 2 small(er) precedences to Petrie bouncing back. In 2008 he averaged 64 in the first 4 games, before bouncing back to record a 96 season, in 2009 he averaged 74 in the first 4 games, and turned it into a 91 season.

As a matter of interest Squiz, how do you see the balance of his season panning out?

 

[Squiz]

Part of the deal in spotting value priced players is taking risks. The longer and better history a player has, the smaller the risk. It's putting faith in a player, that he hasn't lost his ability, or competitive spirit, though both of those things can happen. If we were talking about a player with only one or two good seasons, it would certainly dent your confidence in your predictions, but Petrie has 7 out of his last 8 seasons at 89+, and the only "flaw" was a 2 game injury interrupted season. I'm not 100% confident he can drag his season back up to 88, but I don't think it is an unrealistic goal given his history, but there's certainly no guarantee Petrie can/will bounce back. He also has the advantage of North's draw opening up, and becoming easier after the bye. There are 2 small(er) precedences to Petrie bouncing back. In 2008 he averaged 64 in the first 4 games, before bouncing back to record a 96 season, in 2009 he averaged 74 in the first 4 games, and turned it into a 91 season.

As a matter of interest Squiz, how do you see the balance of his season panning out?

I agree its all about taking risks. Personally I just can't see him increasing his average enough to be considered. He doesn't have the athletisism of other aging big forwards like Pavlich and NRoo who have both also proved people, including me, wrong. So he will find it a lot harder to push up the ground like these two can two get some easier points. A good example of a similar player (though I am not saying he is anywhere near as good) is Jono Brown. He will have a few big games where he may get 4-5 goals, but most full backs will have his measure. I see him mainly getting similar numbers to what he is now, with a few big games that will trick people into jumping on him.

 

[Oh My Watson]

Petrie no chance of averaging 100 from here. 31 year old tall who is showing no signs of his previous scoring potential. His highest score this year isn't even above 100. So unless its as a F7 to loophole I would avoid Petrie.

North haven't been playing very well early in the season and might have turned the corner last game. Beat the dockers in which Petrie got 93 which is a really good effort against the Freo defense. With more wins from an easier last half of season it could result in more chances and better delivery for Petrie. That's my rationale of getting him anyways haha

 

[bloke]

Zim is right. Roughie is playing quite a bit of time up the ground, and even attending centre bounces as a Ruck Rover. This isn't a new tactic, but seems to being used more so far this season, than last season. The general idea is to make their Forward structure unpredictable, and therefore making it hard for opposition teams to structure their Defence. Hawthorn actually employed similar tactics with Roughie last season, once again particularly earlier in the season. This is reflected in him kicking 12 goals in the first 6 home and away games last season, and 56 in the last 16 games. Roughie averaged 87.5 SC points in those first 6 games last season, and 102.6 in the last 16 games. I think while we may not see an exact replica of last season, I do think as the season wears on he will spend more time up Forward, kick more goals, and score better than he has been so far this season.

Cheers Rowsus. I'll hold him going by this.

 

[Bontempele]

Would you trade Buddy now he is out Rowsus?

 

[Ollye]

Martin for Cyril?
Martin not playing well this year and with a BE of 140. Cyril starting to get into good form and he has a BE of 59. This trade is also good for my bye strategy as it currently sits at 12/7/11.

Trade or not?

 

[Ollye]

Would you trade Buddy now he is out Rowsus?

As I have buddy as well... I'm holding him as the Swans said he was very likely to play this week so he should be back by next week. I'll see what he does and re-asses when Sydney has the bye (round 10)

Hope this helps

 

[Rowsus]

Would you trade Buddy now he is out Rowsus?

As I have buddy as well... I'm holding him as the Swans said he was very likely to play this week so he should be back by next week. I'll see what he does and re-asses when Sydney has the bye (round 10)

Hope this helps

Trading him certainly becomes a more enticing prospect, now that he is out. I will be holding him, but for most Coaches I think it comes down to how bad your Forward line looks with him sitting on the bench. If I was having a good season, and had no other trades I was really urging to do, I would probably trade him out.

 

[Rowsus]

Martin for Cyril?
Martin not playing well this year and with a BE of 140. Cyril starting to get into good form and he has a BE of 59. This trade is also good for my bye strategy as it currently sits at 12/7/11.

Trade or not?

If you've lost faith in Martin, and it helps your bye structure, then I think it's a good option.

 

[EyeloveRichmond]

Hi Rowsus. Originally had planned to trade Dunstan to Swan (no too concerned about overrall) & J.Merrett to Zorko.

Who out of Murphy (Carl) or Swan in your opinion is likely to score better for the rest of the year? Having thoughts of going Dunstan to Murphy instead of Swan. Also with Franklin out, am i better off going Franklin to Zorko instead of Merrett to Zorko? Thanks.

 

[Adrenaline]

Hi Rowsus

I feel like every week there is a new issue to deal with every week.

My current team is

sam mitchell, hanley, langdon, langford, suckling, cameron, hibberd, mcdonald

ablett, pendles, beams, kennedy, taylor, robertson, crouch, liba, dunstan

jacbos and sandi

danger, martin, roughie, pav, higgins, mitchell, impey and jkh

I was planning on trading mcdonald for cutler and bringing in watson for dunstan however i have a few more issues than i expected. I am not sure if i should do the following:

option 1: trade hanley for cutler and dunstan for watson and trade another premium defender next week

option 2: remove the issues and trade hanley for simpson or mcveigh and mitchell for parker

If i go with option 1 im worried that i will have two keepers in the defense and i will behind the 8 ball.

Thanks for your help

 

[blue dreamer]

Thoughts on B.Ebert?

He's an old Campaigner (like his mate cornes)

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus. Originally had planned to trade Dunstan to Swan (no too concerned about overrall) & J.Merrett to Zorko.

Who out of Murphy (Carl) or Swan in your opinion is likely to score better for the rest of the year? Having thoughts of going Dunstan to Murphy instead of Swan. Also with Franklin out, am i better off going Franklin to Zorko instead of Merrett to Zorko? Thanks.

Hi ELR,
I would have to back Swan to outscore Murphy from here, and provided they both stay fit and on the park, I am pretty confident he will.
If you are sitting on the fence on Buddy, you are probably best to take this opportunity to dump him. If you had decided earlier in the week to keep him, I would stand by that decision, unless it's leaving your Forward line looking a mess this week.
Good luck

Edited - I always meant Swan over Murphy, I guess I was a bit rushed when I wrote it the first time, sorry!

 

[Prochard]

Hey rowsus, what do I do with Sam gray?

 

[Rowsus]

Thoughts on B.Ebert?

Good player, but I think he's short of what you want in your SC team.