Strategy 2024: Round 8 Trades

Darkie

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I am seeing a lot of "with 40 trades and 5 boosts, the game has changed" type comments this year. I am not so certain that it has. I have used 13 trades so far this season and if I was perfectly honest I am not sure that I have improved my team by a great deal. Of those 13 trades 3 were for keepers the rest were all for cash generation. Team value sits at $12.9 which is high at this time of the season.
It will be interesting to see if the conservative traders this year can out run the heavy traders.
This is an interesting observation. There have definitely been more aggressive trades (some of which seemed at risk of being sideways) discussed this season. I have been an advocate of being more aggressive, but in a calculated way.

I think a big challenge for the more conservative approach is that if 1,000 or 10,000 coaches use their trades as actively as you have, a meaningful number of them will have got it “right”, and set a higher bar for everyone else to jump over if they want to win the competition.

I think the extra trades and boosts will end up being counterproductive for a small portion of coaches, will help the average coach, and will have significantly helped a lot of the top coaches.
 

Darkie

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I really want to avoid sideways trading Steele, as you just lose ground on the race to finish your team. Therefore, is there any merit in using Steele as a "downgrade" to another premium to unlock cash towards another upgrade?

Steele > Dale unlocks 144K & Steele > Macrae unlocks 115K - are either of these moves worth it to maintain upgrade momentum?
I am thinking similarly, especially as I would be using my last boost (so I am back to upgrade cadence being dictated by one up, one down - at least once I spend the surplus cash).

It really depends on how Steele goes, of course, but I think there is some merit in the idea.
 
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Has something changed for Parish? Started the season poorly, but could last week be a sign of what’s to come? Considering dropping Steele to Parish and banking the 100k
 

Darkie

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Has something changed for Parish? Started the season poorly, but could last week be a sign of what’s to come? Considering dropping Steele to Parish and banking the 100k
I believe he had an interrupted preseason. There was some discussion that he was working his way back to full fitness, but strangely his TOG seems to have gone down every game. He also has more competition for CBAs. Does have a nice draw though.
 
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Ok, let's not talk about how I missed Sweet.

Grundy; Cadman > Sweet; Green (+bank)

Powell; Cadman > Green; Rarcia/Jones?

Any other suggestions? So annoyed right now.
 

Darkie

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Worth flagging the below for anyone relying too heavily on teamsheets. This is Collingwood’s on afl.com.au (can’t post an image for some reason).

Nick Daicos is playing centre half back. Could be bad for his scoring. We can only assume that he’s been training in the position, so he would have been pitted against renowned centre half forward John Noble.

I don’t think all teamsheets are like this, but some of them are garbage. If looking to rely on one, it may be prudent to check the last few from the relevant team, to see if they make sense and have proven representative.

https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/5959#line-ups
 
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Worth flagging the below for anyone relying too heavily on teamsheets. This is Collingwood’s on afl.com.au (can’t post an image for some reason).

Nick Daicos is playing centre half back. Could be bad for his scoring. We can only assume that he’s been training in the position, so he would have been pitted against renowned centre half forward John Noble.

I don’t think all teamsheets are like this, but some of them are garbage. If looking to rely on one, it may be prudent to check the last few from the relevant team, to see if they make sense and have proven representative.

https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/5959#line-ups
Without knowing where he's been listed at previous bounces, I've observed more than a few times Daicos "starting" at CHB for 6-6-6 and then immediately making his way to the contest at first stoppage
 
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Really struggling with the forward options:

Got 5 defender premiums, 6 mid premiums and 3 forward premiums.

Could bring in Dale but my defence is already so strong I really want another forward.

Currently have Heeney, Flanders, Macrae, Reid, Darcy, Comben, Cadman, H.Garcia.

Cadman gets me any forward.

What do we think out of the following prospects:


Charlie Curnow 525k - averaged 90-95 odd winning the Coleman last year. Not super appealing to me.

Luke Jackson 500k - If I was to do Jackson it would definitely be in waiting for him to drop further. Think he would be my 5th forward target if he can show he can score 90+ alongside Darcy.

Jeremy Cameron 500k - Although he will be boom/bust most weeks like every forward. Overall for his yearly average you pretty much know what you’ll get. Low upside though.

Caldwell 496k - Has been a star the last 4-5 weeks playing as the 3rd midfielder alongside Merrett and Parish. Seems appealing at age 24. However, Setterfield coming back could severely impact him?

Baker 489k - Had some great scoring last year but super super inconsistent. Injuries may mean more
Midfield time but overall his role being so variable probably isn’t great for SuperCoach.

Moore 462k - Been huge the last 2 weeks but mainly due to so many contested possessions inside 50. Not sure his scoring is sustainable in such a bad side with little CBA or midfield time as a medium sized forward. That said because he isn’t as flashy there’s not much difference between him and Rankine from a SuperCoach perspective imo. Super low BE too. Went at 94 and 91 last 2 seasons.

Kennedy 446k - Super low BE but does Cerra back negatively impact him now. Too many cooks in that midfield to get any CBA time or really much midfield time. Can rack up possies though. Went at 97 in 2022.

Fyfe 427k - Injury risk and age the massive factor and missed the boat potentially at this price and ownership. Has the highest scoring potential of any of the list though by far imo.


Any thoughts from others on potential forward options listed?
 
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Ok, let's not talk about how I missed Sweet.
Counterpoint - I locked in Sweet for Cadman via Livingstone, spent last night running around for my daughter's choir, got home to find I've basically locked in a donut because both F7 and F8 got dropped. Also annoyed right now, basically takes any straight upgrades off the table this week.

Now I'm stuck offloading Tunstill (thought we'd keep him in given our poor performances, give the kid a chance) for Rogers or Jones, or hunting a keeper for < $340k (ha!).

Edit: for starters, I've brought back in Cadman for Tunstill to at least give me 22. Now to decide if Rogers is worth the trade in.
 
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Really struggling with the forward options:

Got 5 defender premiums, 6 mid premiums and 3 forward premiums.

Could bring in Dale but my defence is already so strong I really want another forward.

Currently have Heeney, Flanders, Macrae, Reid, Darcy, Comben, Cadman, H.Garcia.

Cadman gets me any forward.

What do we think out of the following prospects:


Charlie Curnow 525k - averaged 90-95 odd winning the Coleman last year. Not super appealing to me.

Luke Jackson 500k - If I was to do Jackson it would definitely be in waiting for him to drop further. Think he would be my 5th forward target if he can show he can score 90+ alongside Darcy.

Jeremy Cameron 500k - Although he will be boom/bust most weeks like every forward. Overall for his yearly average you pretty much know what you’ll get. Low upside though.

Caldwell 496k - Has been a star the last 4-5 weeks playing as the 3rd midfielder alongside Merrett and Parish. Seems appealing at age 24. However, Setterfield coming back could severely impact him?

Baker 489k - Had some great scoring last year but super super inconsistent. Injuries may mean more
Midfield time but overall his role being so variable probably isn’t great for SuperCoach.

Moore 462k - Been huge the last 2 weeks but mainly due to so many contested possessions inside 50. Not sure his scoring is sustainable in such a bad side with little CBA or midfield time as a medium sized forward. That said because he isn’t as flashy there’s not much difference between him and Rankine from a SuperCoach perspective imo. Super low BE too. Went at 94 and 91 last 2 seasons.

Kennedy 446k - Super low BE but does Cerra back negatively impact him now. Too many cooks in that midfield to get any CBA time or really much midfield time. Can rack up possies though. Went at 97 in 2022.

Fyfe 427k - Injury risk and age the massive factor and missed the boat potentially at this price and ownership. Has the highest scoring potential of any of the list though by far imo.


Any thoughts from others on potential forward options listed?
I brought up Caldwell last week and got similar responses to what you've said re Setterfield. In the end I chickened out and went Macrae, and this week Bont is priority 1, but I'm starting to firm on Caldwell - for me he's playing good enough footy that he substantially keeps his spot and his minutes when Setterfield is back. Not super close to the Essendon line-up though
 
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Anybody passing on both Rogers and R Garcia? With all these rookies on the horizon I’m not sure young small forwards are the way to go
Aside from Darcy Jones, who would you say are the enticing rookies for next week? I'm still pondering going early on Jones or taking Riley Garcia purely as part of a trade in to get Yeo (yeah, I missed the boat but need him now).
 
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I brought up Caldwell last week and got similar responses to what you've said re Setterfield. In the end I chickened out and went Macrae, and this week Bont is priority 1, but I'm starting to firm on Caldwell - for me he's playing good enough footy that he substantially keeps his spot and his minutes when Setterfield is back. Not super close to the Essendon line-up though
I'm watching Solego for next week but just a little wary. He's going to be a gun though.
 
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Anybody passing on both Rogers and R Garcia? With all these rookies on the horizon I’m not sure young small forwards are the way to go
I have the luxury of seeing all of Darcy Jones, Simpson and Hardeman play their second game before deciding whether I need to pull the trigger on Lyons > Rogers in the last game.

If Darcy Jones/Simpson/Hardeman all play poorly - I'll be grabbing Rogers (y)
 
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Now that Sweet doesn't appear to be R2 calibre I'm thinking that $38k for English from Grundy seems a bargain. However, it is a bit sideways and, while erratic, Grundy hasn't gone badly overall.
Also pondering what to do with Grundy following Sweet's performance last night - at some point it seems inevitable that I'll trade him out for English, and maybe now is as good a time as any? Is there consensus that English will average say 10 points more than Grundy rest of season?

OR....am I better off upgrading elsewhere for the time being? Still eyeing off Dale, Martin, Whitfield or even Luke Ryan as M4 premo in my team after whiffing on Dawson last night, or upgrading at M8 for a full premo midfield (Zerrett, Trac, Dunkley are options for me here as already have Rowell, Green, and will most likely have to deal with either of both of Steele and Rozee next week)
 
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