Strategy 2024: Round 14 Trades

[Zoku Pops]

Can anyone mount a case for Stewart turning it around?

Tagged every week and horribly out of form. Would be averaging 80 over the last 5 without the big few minutes against the Giants. Geelong struggling since Stewart has been targeted but there doesn't seem to be any plan to combat it.

At this point I'd take a 95 average but currently he's nowhere near that.

Really struggling with this one. Been burnt both trading and holding premiums before so not one that has a rule either way (without hindsight).

 

[Bomber18]

Best sub 560k defender? Have Ryan, Daicos, Sheezel, NWM, Dale and need a 6th slot. Hesitant for Houston this week with his current BE (could still wait). Need to get off Comben more than anything.

I’ve just gone Houston. Solid form over 18 months and is durable. A few more sub 100 scores of late but has Saints and Richmond to come so should see some more spike scores.

JClark, Houston or Whitfield are probably the best choices without the bye to come.

Ridley, Yeo or Sinclair the ones with the bye or a bye to come.

 

[Bomber18]

Can anyone mount a case for Stewart turning it around?

Tagged every week and horribly out of form. Would be averaging 80 over the last 5 without the big few minutes against the Giants. Geelong struggling since Stewart has been targeted but there doesn't seem to be any plan to combat it.

At this point I'd take a 95 average but currently he's nowhere near that.

Really struggling with this one. Been burnt both trading and holding premiums before so not one that has a rule either way (without hindsight).

Extra trades this season and has the bye. I reckon worth trading if it works for you.

I started him and dumped him for Dawson when he got concussed, was a great time to jump off

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Are you at all worried about paying 666k for a defender and whether or not he can maintain his average roughly over the rest of the year?
It just seems so much when a host of others like, Sinclair, Clarke, Holmes, Richards, Crisp, Ridley are about 100k cheaper and could score in that 100-105 range, maybe if you pick the right one a 110?

Ryan really needs to throw out a few more behemoth 150+'s to maintain his current average doesn't he?

Not questioning the pick at all, more so the value.

It's a fair question.

With Freo's gameplan, I honestly can't see Ryan dipping much lower than what he is currently averaging. It's been super frustrating watching Freo games with so many opponents owning him so I'd much rather join the masses and cheer for him too.

So yeah, he is quite expensive, although 'only' 55k more than his starting price, but for his expected output from here, I think the price is worth it.

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

I am thinking about Day. Would be a super POD at like 1-2%. Sucks his bye is coming up though.

I'm going Day, I will scrape just the bare 18 for Rd 15 though. Hawks draw is mint.

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Not sure about the downgrades yet, but looks like it might have to be Dowling and/or Krueger.
Maybe even McMullin if he avoids the vest.
Cash unlocked will then allow me to finally trade in...

The #1 forward

 

[robbie_rocco]

I'm going Day, I will scrape just the bare 18 for Rd 15 though. Hawks draw is mint.

yeh Day won't be some huge POD for long !!!

 

[Peter56]

Not sure what to do this week. Might be no trades for me as there are still TEN rounds to go.
Have ended up with 9 midfielders 🙄 so will hopefully be able to loop them the get some decent scores over the next rounds.
Want to keep Sexton, McKeacher and Moyle to see if they are picked next week 🤞
Has anyone

 

[Montyjnr]

Not sure what to do this week. Might be no trades for me as there are still TEN rounds to go.
Have ended up with 9 midfielders 🙄 so will hopefully be able to loop them the get some decent scores over the next rounds.
Want to keep Sexton, McKeacher and Moyle to see if they are picked next week 🤞
Has anyone
View attachment 74227

I'd move Fisher forward and get Jordan Clark.

You still need 3 more premiums - I would be trying to get them ASAP.

 

[Connoisseur]

Not sure what to do this week. Might be no trades for me as there are still TEN rounds to go.
Have ended up with 9 midfielders 🙄 so will hopefully be able to loop them the get some decent scores over the next rounds.
Want to keep Sexton, McKeacher and Moyle to see if they are picked next week 🤞
Has anyone
View attachment 74227

McKercher and Sexton I can understand waiting on due to their dual position status and potential to be held longer term but I wouldn’t worry about trying to squeeze every penny from Moyle if he plays another game post bye, since you are running the Gawn and Grundy duo. Sharp, Sullivan and Reid look like trade out targets with Garcia and Freijah in RD15.

RD15 may be cutting it fine as your mid position looks most at risk as you may be relying on 14/14 in the def, ruck and fwd lines. Downgrade targets are difficult given the likes of Dowling, Krueger, etc share the Rd15 bye. Given the lack of forward options I would look to swing Fisher to the fwd line and grab a sixth defender (Whitfield/Clark) to replace Sharp unless there is a forward who has had his bye that you are confident on, since I gather McKercher will likely operate as a def/mid swing.

 

[MagpiePotato]

Good chance he'll be a straight swap to Rozee next week if you need a bail out that still gives you 23rd premo vibes.

Thanks mate, wasn't on my radar that Rozee was that cheap and with such a high breakeven

 

[randomcliche]

Can anyone mount a case for Stewart turning it around?

Tagged every week and horribly out of form. Would be averaging 80 over the last 5 without the big few minutes against the Giants. Geelong struggling since Stewart has been targeted but there doesn't seem to be any plan to combat it.

At this point I'd take a 95 average but currently he's nowhere near that.

Really struggling with this one. Been burnt both trading and holding premiums before so not one that has a rule either way (without hindsight).

Not me.

 

[Woodsey]

Contemplating slingshotting N Martin to Himmelberg/Whitfield/Blakey/J Clark

Has gone forward a couple of times now that Ridleys back and his DE has been shocking.

Any thoughts bombers fans?

 

[Peter56]

McKercher and Sexton I can understand waiting on due to their dual position status and potential to be held longer term but I wouldn’t worry about trying to squeeze every penny from Moyle if he plays another game post bye, since you are running the Gawn and Grundy duo. Sharp, Sullivan and Reid look like trade out targets with Garcia and Freijah in RD15.

RD15 may be cutting it fine as your mid position looks most at risk as you may be relying on 14/14 in the def, ruck and fwd lines. Downgrade targets are difficult given the likes of Dowling, Krueger, etc share the Rd15 bye. Given the lack of forward options I would look to swing Fisher to the fwd line and grab a sixth defender (Whitfield/Clark) to replace Sharp unless there is a forward who has had his bye that you are confident on, since I gather McKercher will likely operate as a def/mid swing.

Thanks for the advice. I think I will just trade Moyle for the cash and have a bank for next week.

 

[Chumpion]

Contemplating slingshotting N Martin to Himmelberg/Whitfield/Blakey/J Clark

Has gone forward a couple of times now that Ridleys back and his DE has been shocking.

Any thoughts bombers fans?

It’s not an entirely horrible plan I’d probably hold off if you could craft a decent set of trades without. Ridley has missed games due to injury, and Martin is managing to scrap serviceable scores and has a handy DPP. If Ridley goes down his role could return, or things could shift around in his favour.
I have him and while this drop off isn’t great I think he’s a hold until he can become a D7/M9 cover type or you know you have luxury trades to spare.
I know everyone says “we have extra trades this year” but j swear I’ve read that every round and it’s not THAT many extra if you’ve been trading hard. Most will finish their team with ~7 trades left I’m thinking, and between concussion protocols, suspension risks around head contact, and other injury risks, I reckon we’ll want to hold trades for the run home rather than pulling too many sideways moves now.

TLDR: I’d hold unless desperate.

 

[Shaunpro1]

It’s not an entirely horrible plan I’d probably hold off if you could craft a decent set of trades without. Ridley has missed games due to injury, and Martin is managing to scrap serviceable scores and has a handy DPP. If Ridley goes down his role could return, or things could shift around in his favour.
I have him and while this drop off isn’t great I think he’s a hold until he can become a D7/M9 cover type or you know you have luxury trades to spare.
I know everyone says “we have extra trades this year” but j swear I’ve read that every round and it’s not THAT many extra if you’ve been trading hard. Most will finish their team with ~7 trades left I’m thinking, and between concussion protocols, suspension risks around head contact, and other injury risks, I reckon we’ll want to hold trades for the run home rather than pulling too many sideways moves now.

TLDR: I’d hold unless desperate.

People sideways trading must be ending with 3 or 4 trades max hardly seen anyone doing it with more than 12 currently and they all still have at least two rookies on the field, that's very light when there's still 10 rounds post byes, as frustrating as poor premiums are fielding rookies late in the year is worse.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Can anyone mount a case for Stewart turning it around?

Tagged every week and horribly out of form. Would be averaging 80 over the last 5 without the big few minutes against the Giants. Geelong struggling since Stewart has been targeted but there doesn't seem to be any plan to combat it.

At this point I'd take a 95 average but currently he's nowhere near that.

Really struggling with this one. Been burnt both trading and holding premiums before so not one that has a rule either way (without hindsight).

For me the biggest reason is his value, to trade him to anyone youve got to halt getting rookies off the ground and find 100k for anyone decent, not sure its a smart move for those of us that have already over traded.

 

[Chumpion]

People sideways trading must be ending with 3 or 4 trades max hardly seen anyone doing it with more than 12 currently and they all still have at least two rookies on the field, that's very light when there's still 10 rounds post byes, as frustrating as poor premiums are fielding rookies late in the year is worse.

Yep completely agree. Sideways trading these guys is a luxury that I'll save for the final 4-5 rounds if I've made it through unscathed until then. Especially with the complete lack of rookies that can fill in as bench cover at a pinch. There is a very real chance that an injury/suspension will mean a zero for these teams as they don't have the trades to manage them in the run home. Even with a bench premium at M9 or a D7.F7 swing. Can see a scenario where you're putting on 200+ points on a lot of teams that run out of steam in the last month.

 

[Darkie]

Yep completely agree. Sideways trading these guys is a luxury that I'll save for the final 4-5 rounds if I've made it through unscathed until then. Especially with the complete lack of rookies that can fill in as bench cover at a pinch. There is a very real chance that an injury/suspension will mean a zero for these teams as they don't have the trades to manage them in the run home. Even with a bench premium at M9 or a D7.F7 swing. Can see a scenario where you're putting on 200+ points on a lot of teams that run out of steam in the last month.

I am increasingly thinking along these lines, while realizing I probably need this to be true to help make up meaningful ground. Doing something like Oliver to Serong now is not likely to help much with that.

 

[Chumpion]

I am increasingly thinking along these lines, while realizing I probably need this to be true to help make up meaningful ground. Doing something like Oliver to Serong now is not likely to help much with that.

Yeah I think it is a toss up, as a lot depends on averages and games played, as well as potential cover scores. In years gone past I was reasonably confident I could cover a short term miss with an 80, meaning the other player would need to significantly out average the one I brought in. Eg in your example, if I went Oliver (100 average) to Serong (115 average) over the last 11 rounds, that is +165 points, which is still +130 if an bench score of 80 covered Serong for a week. But this year with the poor rookie options we're likely to be left with and the sub rule, the cover score could easily be a 30 or 40, meaning any advantage is eaten away quickly.
That said, I think the fact Oliver still has a bye means you get a pretty handy boost by making that trade. If we use the Oliver 100 and Serong 115 examples above, you'll get 11x115 from Serong (1265 points) and 10x100 from Oliver (1000 points). +265 is a pretty handy headstart right there! I definitely wouldn't be advocating a sideways trade to someone with that higher upside, but guys like Serong and Butters who have had the bye and a +1 game count coupled with being a top 2-3 scorer are much more worth it.
But the caveat to that is, how many trades will you have with a complete team if you also make that sideways move?