Analysis Buddy Franklin

[Impromptu]

Lance Buddy Franklin of Hawthorn is one of the popular forwards in SuperCoach. Buddy can get monster scores, but is also inconsistent!

Name - Buddy Franklin (HAW)
Position - FWD
Price - $618,000
Average - 115.5 (16), 110.8 (19), 107.5 (17), 87.9 (21), 107 (22)
2012 Scores - 142 (COL), 89 (GEE), 118 (ADE), 89 (WCE), 72 (SYD), 131 (STK)
2013 Draw - GEE, WCE, COL, FRE, NTH, ADE, SYD, GWS, GCS, MEL, BYE, CARL, WCE

It feels a bit like 'dejavu' or 'GroundHog Day' with Buddy Franklin.

At about this time last year, I was considering the same thing whether to start Buddy Franklin in my initial SuperCoach team or not. To help with my decision making, I wrote the article 'BuddyFly Effect', which I believe the same principles apply to Buddy Franklin in 2013 as in 2012.

REASONS FOR BUDDY FRANKLIN

Buddy Franklin will finish in the top 6 averages in the FWD, not necessarily the top 6 in aggregate as he tends to miss a few games each year. Note the emphasis on and that it is not Buddy 'might' or 'should' but rather 'will' finish in the top 6 averages in 2013.

Furthermore, Buddy Franklin plays for a serious premiership contender, so they will win much more often than lose. Hawthorn will also be looking to redeem themselves for not winning the premiership in 2012.

Buddy Franklin possibly could also increase his average by another 10 points, so there is still an upside to him. In short, there is no reason not to pick Buddy Franklin in your team, but the question is when?

REASONS AGAINST BUDDY FRANKLIN

Similar to my article back in 2012 titled 'BuddyFly Effect', the question is not whether to pick Buddy Franklin, but whether to have him in your starting SuperCoach team.

What first pops to mind is Hawthorn have a tough draw in 2013 and their first 7 games are against GEE, WCE, COL, FRE, NTH, ADE, SYD. 5 of these teams are premiership contenders and FRE and NTH are no easy beats either. Now I'm not suggesting Buddy Franklin will not score 100s against these teams, but I think I will wait until after round 7 to trade in Buddy Franklin due ot Hawthorn's tough draw and Buddy Franklin's starting price.

I've had a look at SuperCoach 2012, when I trade Buddy Franklin after 6 pursuant to the 'BuddyFly Effect', which I believe was a 'par result'. Buddy Franklin scored 142 (COL), 89 (GEE), 118 (ADE), 89 (WCE), 72 (SYD), 131 (STK), which is an average of 106.8, however he was priced at 110.7.

In 2013, Buddy Franklin plays 5 of the first 6 last year in its first 7 games and we replace STK (131) with FRE and NTH. To me, Hawthorn's draw in 2013 is very similar to 2012 in the first few weeks, so perhaps we can expect similar outcomes. However, in 2013, Buddy Franklin is priced at 115.5 rather than 106.8, so relatively Buddy Franklin is a bit more expensive, if he maintains the same output in the first 7 rounds in 2013 as he did in the first 6 rounds of 2012. Now SuperCoach is not simply about numbers, but it does give us a basis for our decision.

While I don't expect him to, but let's talk in the worst case scenario with first 7 rounds in 2013 and Buddy Franklin averages 125. While it is 'loss' to the 'No Buddy Franklin team', it's not a bad loss in terms of price increase nor score. Therefore, on the basis of risk and return, Buddy Franklin is very unlikely to be in my initial SuperCoach team in 2013.

Furthermore, while the 'Rumours and Speculations of Buddy Franklin' were quashed by Hawthorn and subsequently the AFL, it is still a bit concerning for me. Naturally, this could inspired Buddy Franklin and he could come out all guns blazing and smash an average of 130 in his first 7 rounds.

However, for me, it's more of risk and return by choosing NOT have Buddy Franklin in my initial SuperCoach team in 2013.

Verdict: UNLIKELY(4)

Note: There has been wonderful discussions on Buddy Franklin on page 1 to 4 on the 'Player-Discussions-Forwards-(FWD).

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Jay absolutely loving these player articles, really great to see the discussion happening as well with so many varying opinions.
I for 1 will be locking in Franklin from round 1. I just feel the that if I don't the scores he could produce could cost me a shot at the overall right from the start of the season, much like going without Gary Ablett. If Buddy does not go ballistic early on and averages a modest 100 or so then even if he does drop in price I am still going to be level, if not ahead if I was to choose another player somewhere around the Bartel, Rioli or even Big tex Walker area as I will pass on guys like Pavlich, Cox and Chapman in 2013.

Anyway thats my thinking and cannot wait to an article on Nic Naitanui as I presume he will be featured player this preseason.

 

[IDIG]

Great read, impeccable timing and really is relevant this time of the year. I'll admit ive had many drafts without buddy in them but ill vote likely when i get on a pc. For a few reasons, having him as a potential captain loophole, knowing ill have to bring him in anyway and... IF he can play a full season he'll be the number 1 fwd. Add to that he's probably the most popular picked so if he starts with a bang so many teams will be advantaged putting non-buddy teams at least 1 trade and x amount of points behind.

I do understand the flip side of the coin and perhaps with the additional trades, his tough draw and one less fwd required this year i guess there is merit in spreading the buddy funds across the midfield...Especially if u use the funds to advantage.

Its like not having ablett from day 1, its just so scary with their big point potential and popularity.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Its like not having ablett from day 1, its just so scary with their big point potential and popularity.

Exactly right, sort of what I was trying to say above.

 

[Courtesans]

Nice one Jay. For me comes down to value for money, you just can't have them all. Rowsus and yourself have written some great stuff about value. My choice is Cox or Buddy. Cox for me, with the big difference of DPP to cover a ruck who falls over for a week or so. Will get in my team as the year rolls on though!

 

[Rowsus]

Buddy is the ultimate Average Vs Aggregate discussion player, and a good "value" player to discuss.
No one can doubt his average, or his ability to belt out a big score. Similarly, you cannot argue against his poor aggregate each year. Until he shows an abilty to play 20 games in a season, or to get rid of his high number of disappointing scores (5/16 under 90 2012, 5/19 under 90 2011) he will always be high up on my trade in list, and never on my starting list. But I do understand why people start with him.

 

[johno686]

I did have him locked and loaded for 2013 but after reading this i have to think about it now. Hard start to the season for buddy might just have to be a upgrade target.

 

[hammo42]

I'm unlikely to be starting with Buddy as I expect his price to drop in the early rounds. However given his tendency to miss games I'm starting to question whether I should bring him in at all.

In 2012 he played the first 12 rounds, then just 4 of the last 10. In 2013 Hawks have a very tough draw. I don't have stats for previous seasons but at a guess I'd say Buddy would play more matches in the first half of the season than the second half.

Normally it wouldn't make sense to trade in a player who you know is approaching a period where they are highly-likely to miss matches.

To trade Buddy in mid-season would have to be purely as a tactic to:
1. Capitalise on the spare change resulting from the price-drop
2. Nullify any potential advantage others have by having Buddy (as per Jay's 2011 tactics), because by mid-season most SC's would have him in their team

Could it be a positive POD by not having Buddy at all during 2013? A brave call, but I think it's worth asking the question.

Let's say you traded Buddy in after R6 in 2012 at his lowest price ($523K) and he played 10/16 games thereafter. Despite averaging 120 across those 10 matches, Buddy averaged 75 across those final 16 rounds. Had Buddy missed only 3 matches and maintained his average score of 120, he would still have averaged 98 over the 16 rounds, yet would be priced at his 120 average.

Does that represent enough value if the same happens in 2013? Is Jay's tactic of trading in Buddy because everyone else has him justified?

 

[Impromptu]

I'm unlikely to be starting with Buddy as I expect his price to drop in the early rounds. However given his tendency to miss games I'm starting to question whether I should bring him in at all.

In 2012 he played the first 12 rounds, then just 4 of the last 10. In 2013 Hawks have a very tough draw. I don't have stats for previous seasons but at a guess I'd say Buddy would play more matches in the first half of the season than the second half.

Normally it wouldn't make sense to trade in a player who you know is approaching a period where they are highly-likely to miss matches.

To trade Buddy in mid-season would have to be purely as a tactic to:
1. Capitalise on the spare change resulting from the price-drop
2. Nullify any potential advantage others have by having Buddy (as per Jay's 2011 tactics), because by mid-season most SC's would have him in their team

Could it be a positive POD by not having Buddy at all during 2013? A brave call, but I think it's worth asking the question.

Let's say you traded Buddy in after R6 in 2012 at his lowest price ($523K) and he played 10/16 games thereafter. Despite averaging 120 across those 10 matches, Buddy averaged 75 across those final 16 rounds. Had Buddy missed only 3 matches and maintained his average score of 120, he would still have averaged 98 over the 16 rounds, yet would be priced at his 120 average.

Does that represent enough value if the same happens in 2013? Is Jay's tactic of trading in Buddy because everyone else has him justified?

Very good question.

However, if we assume Buddy will finish in the top 6 forwards on average then the question will be when to have Buddy whether it is in the initial team or during the year. For me, the perfect time to trade Buddy in would be after round 7 where he then has GWS, GCS, MEL in the next 3 rounds.

I'm not trading in Buddy as I think everyone has him but rather I think Buddy would be in the top 6 forwards based on averages.

If you don't believe Buddy will finish in the top 6, then it could be a good (but very brave move). The question you need to ask yourself, is where you expect Buddy to finish in the forward category. I can't see Buddy not finishing in the top 6, but I can see him scoring say average 100 in the first 7 games, and then ramp it up to say 130, which pans about to about ~115.

I am a bit suspect about what occurred with Buddy and the Hawks in 2012 in the later rounds

 

[hammo42]

For me, the perfect time to trade Buddy in would be after round 7 where he then has GWS, GCS, MEL in the next 3 rounds.

I'm not trading in Buddy as I think everyone has him but rather I think Buddy would be in the top 6 forwards based on averages.

Can't agree more.

I should clarify that my comments were in the context of aggregate scores. If I do trade Buddy in after round 7, will he finish in the top 6 of overall forward scorers for those final 15 rounds?

If I'm chasing league wins then Buddy is a definite inclusion for me at some stage.

 

[hammo42]

I am a bit suspect about what occurred with Buddy and the Hawks in 2012 in the later rounds

The Hawks showed during those rounds that their forward line functioned very well during the weeks he was out (I'd almost argue that they functioned better without him). Even though Buddy is a superstar, the Hawks don't rely on him, so they would be less inclined to risk him if injured or rush him back into the side. It all points to him missing games, but when he does play, he'd be closer to full fitness and therefore should score well.

 

[Philzsay]

I'm unlikely to be starting with Buddy as I expect his price to drop in the early rounds. However given his tendency to miss games I'm starting to question whether I should bring him in at all.

In 2012 he played the first 12 rounds, then just 4 of the last 10. In 2013 Hawks have a very tough draw. I don't have stats for previous seasons but at a guess I'd say Buddy would play more matches in the first half of the season than the second half.

Normally it wouldn't make sense to trade in a player who you know is approaching a period where they are highly-likely to miss matches.

To trade Buddy in mid-season would have to be purely as a tactic to:
1. Capitalise on the spare change resulting from the price-drop
2. Nullify any potential advantage others have by having Buddy (as per Jay's 2011 tactics), because by mid-season most SC's would have him in their team

Could it be a positive POD by not having Buddy at all during 2013? A brave call, but I think it's worth asking the question.

Let's say you traded Buddy in after R6 in 2012 at his lowest price ($523K) and he played 10/16 games thereafter. Despite averaging 120 across those 10 matches, Buddy averaged 75 across those final 16 rounds. Had Buddy missed only 3 matches and maintained his average score of 120, he would still have averaged 98 over the 16 rounds, yet would be priced at his 120 average.

Does that represent enough value if the same happens in 2013? Is Jay's tactic of trading in Buddy because everyone else has him justified?

I have been pondering similiar thoughts.

Further compounding matters is that Franklin is a slow starter when returning from missed rounds. Below are the rounds he has missed in the last 3 years and then his score first week back:

2012: 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 ,21. He scored 77 in Rd 22.
2011: 11, 14, 24. He scored 85 in Rd 12, 66 in Rd 15.
2010: 1, 4, 7, 11, 16. He scored 82 in Rd 2, 115 in Rd 5, 91 in Rd 8, 111 in Rd 12 and 88 in Rd 17.

Thats an average of just 89 in his first game back (from a not too small sample size of 8 games with a highest score of 115.)

 

[WandP]

For me Buddy really depends on my structure. At this early stage, i've been able to squeeze in 2 extra speculative PODs into my team by dropping him and i just kinda like the look of my squad a bit more. I guess it's also because we don't have that much to go on in terms of rookie form so with my rose coloured glasses on, 2x "the next dangerfields" > Buddy + unknown.

No doubt as soon as NAB cup rolls around and said PODs start stinking it up i'll chicken out and bring him back in.

 

[sc2013]

I've been lurking for a while and thought I should contribute something - so here are some numbers that you might be interested in. Listed below are Hawthorn's opponents for each round and Buddy's average score against each opponent over the past two years:

[table="width: 1000"]
[tr]
[td]Round[/td]
[td]Opponent[/td]
[td]Average Buddy Score[/td]
[td]Comments[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1[/td]
[td]Geelong[/td]
[td]91[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2[/td]
[td]West Coast[/td]
[td]116[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]3[/td]
[td]Collingwood[/td]
[td]96[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]4[/td]
[td]Fremantle[/td]
[td]81[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]5[/td]
[td]North[/td]
[td]166[/td]
[td]This is biased by the score of 236 in Tasmania last year - unlikely to be repeated? (Scored 96 in the other game vs North)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]6[/td]
[td]Adelaide[/td]
[td]95[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]7[/td]
[td]Sydney[/td]
[td]98[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]8[/td]
[td]Greater Western Sydney[/td]
[td]109[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]9[/td]
[td]Gold Coast[/td]
[td]89[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]10[/td]
[td]Melbourne[/td]
[td]127[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]11[/td]
[td]BYE[/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]12[/td]
[td]Carlton[/td]
[td]117[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]13[/td]
[td]West Coast[/td]
[td]116[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]14[/td]
[td]Brisbane Lions[/td]
[td]125[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]15[/td]
[td]Geelong[/td]
[td]91[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]16[/td]
[td]Port Adelaide[/td]
[td]130[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]17[/td]
[td]Western Bulldogs[/td]
[td]114[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]18[/td]
[td]Essendon[/td]
[td][/td]
[td]Buddy has not played against Essendon in the past two years[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]19[/td]
[td]Richmond[/td]
[td]110[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]20[/td]
[td]St Kilda[/td]
[td]127[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]21[/td]
[td]Collingwood[/td]
[td]96[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]22[/td]
[td]North[/td]
[td]166[/td]
[td]** Unlikely to be this high - See above[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]23[/td]
[td]Sydney[/td]
[td]98[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

Average score against pre-Bye teams: 107 (only 100 if the aberrant North data point is excluded)

Average score against post-Bye teams: 117 (or 112 if the North data point is excluded)

Average score Rounds 12-20: 116

Based on this, it doesn't look like Buddy will be scoring up to his price level in the first part of the season.

 

[Nk29]

I've been lurking for a while and thought I should contribute something - so here are some numbers that you might be interested in. Listed below are Hawthorn's opponents for each round and Buddy's average score against each opponent over the past two years:

[table="width: 1000"]
[tr]
[td]Round[/td]
[td]Opponent[/td]
[td]Average Buddy Score[/td]
[td]Comments[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1[/td]
[td]Geelong[/td]
[td]91[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2[/td]
[td]West Coast[/td]
[td]116[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]3[/td]
[td]Collingwood[/td]
[td]96[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]4[/td]
[td]Fremantle[/td]
[td]81[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]5[/td]
[td]North[/td]
[td]166[/td]
[td]This is biased by the score of 236 in Tasmania last year - unlikely to be repeated? (Scored 96 in the other game vs North)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]6[/td]
[td]Adelaide[/td]
[td]95[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]7[/td]
[td]Sydney[/td]
[td]98[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]8[/td]
[td]Greater Western Sydney[/td]
[td]109[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]9[/td]
[td]Gold Coast[/td]
[td]89[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]10[/td]
[td]Melbourne[/td]
[td]127[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]11[/td]
[td]BYE[/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]12[/td]
[td]Carlton[/td]
[td]117[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]13[/td]
[td]West Coast[/td]
[td]116[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]14[/td]
[td]Brisbane Lions[/td]
[td]125[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]15[/td]
[td]Geelong[/td]
[td]91[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]16[/td]
[td]Port Adelaide[/td]
[td]130[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]17[/td]
[td]Western Bulldogs[/td]
[td]114[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]18[/td]
[td]Essendon[/td]
[td][/td]
[td]Buddy has not played against Essendon in the past two years[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]19[/td]
[td]Richmond[/td]
[td]110[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]20[/td]
[td]St Kilda[/td]
[td]127[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]21[/td]
[td]Collingwood[/td]
[td]96[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]22[/td]
[td]North[/td]
[td]166[/td]
[td]** Unlikely to be this high - See above[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]23[/td]
[td]Sydney[/td]
[td]98[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

Average score against pre-Bye teams: 107 (only 100 if the aberrant North data point is excluded)

Average score against post-Bye teams: 117 (or 112 if the North data point is excluded)

Average score Rounds 12-20: 116

Based on this, it doesn't look like Buddy will be scoring up to his price level in the first part of the season.

Great analysis mate. Just a quick question, does the pre-bye average include the 16 avg against North?

 

[sc2013]

Pre-bye including the north 166 score = 107

Pre-bye NOT including the north score = 100

Pre-bye including a score of 96 for North (what Buddy scored in his other game vs North) = 100

 

[Nk29]

Pre-bye including the north 166 score = 107

Pre-bye NOT including the north score = 100

Pre-bye including a score of 96 for North (what Buddy scored in his other game vs North) = 100

Hmm not too attractive. But I guess with Buddy (and most KPF) you can't really use historical averages to determine their output as theu can have good or bad days. Taking into account the tough early draw and your figures though, I think it is safe to say that Buddy is likely to start slowly and will make a good post bye upgrade (especially with his attractive rd 11 bye)

 

[sc2013]

Things change in teams from year to year, so we have to be careful basing things on data from the past. I've been trying to think of anything that might cause Buddy to score higher this year. Hawthorn will be hurting after the GF loss, so that might add some incentive. But are there any team changes that might influence Buddy's score? The only thing I've come up with is Bailey might play more ruck and Roughead might be more forward. Would this help Buddy (defender attention on Roughead) or hurt him (competition with Roughead)? Anyone have any ideas?

 

[Dynamo]

I cant remember not starting with Buddy but this year it doesn't feel right.
Love him as a player and a Hawk but head over heart for me this year.
Will be an upgrade, maybe if he stops giving away free kicks his average will go through the roof.

 

[sc2013]

It is true that KPFs have good and bad days and so averages can be misleading. But there does seem to be a pattern with Buddy against certain teams. For example, even though Buddy scored over 100 50% of the time over the past 2 years, his scores in 4 games against Geelong: 89, 95, 85, 93.


On the other hand, he seems to uniformly do well against:

Melbourne: 140, 108, 132
Brisbane: 118, 132
Port Adelaide: 113, 114, 162
Bulldogs: 109, 118
St Kilda: 131, 122
Carlton: 130, 103