Stats insider: Full round 16 centre bounce numbers, key SuperCoach intel
See the numbers behind Matt Rowell’s dramatic drop-off plus the key SuperCoach stats you need to know this week, including a big midfield move at the Cats, CBAs and kick-ins.
Al PatonSuperFooty editor
A major positional change 16 weeks in the making has finally arrived.
For one week at least.
In January Geelong assistant coach James Kelly said he would “love to see” Tom Stewart spend more time in the midfield.
After signing a three-year contract extension over summer, Stewart said he was open to the move.
“To be able to go up around the ball and win the ball at the source and help the forward half of the ground is something that’s new to me, but I’m really open to whatever the club needs me to do and the role they see fit,” he said.
There were glimpses in the pre-season, but Stewart didn’t attend a single centre bounce in the first 15 rounds.
Against Essendon on Saturday night, he was at 24 – the most of any Geelong player. He won four centre clearances among his 23 disposals on his way to 97 SuperCoach points. And if you’re looking for a bargain, he’s just $468,600.
“The move makes sense to me, I hold him in such high regard,” coach Chris Scott said post-match.
“I joked if we played him as a small forward, he would probably be the best small forward in the comp, in my opinion.”
Scott has mixed up his onball set up all season – last weekend Max Holmes’ CBA percentage dropped from 69 to 3 – so it’s a watch this space if Stewart stays in the centre square.
It’s a similar story at Adelaide, where Rory Laird has returned to form, but in a role that is almost impossible to pin down.
His midfield time in the past month has swung from 52 per cent to 97 per cent, back to 37 per cent and then 100 per cent last weekend.
On the flip side, his time in defence over the past four rounds reads: 46 per cent, 0 per cent, 63 per cent, 0 per cent.
Based on that trend, expect another defensive spike against the Lions this weekend.
Secret SuperCoach stats
Each week Champion Data guru Fantasy Freako lifts the lid on the SuperCoach scoring system by analysing key moments from the weekend games.
Here are the numbers you need to know from round 16.
STATS BEHIND MATT ROWELL SLUMP
When assessing a player’s form, we need to be mindful of what those around him are doing. Rowell was averaging 130 in his first six games. But that has dropped to 91 per game since round 8.
Sam Flanders is one player that has really ramped up his scoring since then, averaging 124 points per game, while Noah Anderson is the only other Sun to average three figures with 107. The team as a whole has dropped off in SuperCoach.
Rowell’s work in the contest has fallen away – he was averaging 17 contested possessions in his first six games, compared to 10.6 since. Likewise, his frees for and gathers from a hitout have dropped off, both key parts of the contested possession number in SuperCoach.
Overall, the volume of disposals hasn’t been the same, either. Rowell has dropped below 20 disposals in four of his past eight games, racking up 25-plus just twice. He leads the AFL for tackles this season but has had seven, seven and four tackles in his last three games – his bread and butter in terms of scoring points. (Rowell recorded 10 or more tackles in seven of his first 12 matches.)
MERRETT GOES MISSING
Zach Merrett was the equal-second ranked player on the ground at halftime against Geelong last Saturday night with 72 points.
But he had just two effective disposals in the second half and scored six points – ranked 44th on the ground.
Even though it appeared he spent time forward in the third term, Merrett played 100 per cent as a midfielder.
CHARLIE HITS A TARGET
Charlie Curnow struggled to get a kick on Richmond backman Ben Miller on Sunday, but he did manage to throw the ball on his boot midway through the last quarter, and the scrambled kick went straight teammate Alex Cincotta only a metre or two away.
Cincotta converted and Curnow was awarded a goal assist for the short and effective kick.
In what was a dirty afternoon for the gun goalkicker, he didn’t win any of the five one-on-one contests he was involved in – losing two to Miller.
TAGGER WATCH
The tagging menace is still a key factor for SuperCoaches to consider in the second half of the season.
Last weekend Will Phillips continued his run-with roles by holding Adam Treloar to 14 disposals in the 79 minutes they were matched up.
Tom Atkins kept Zach Merrett to 19 disposals in the 80 minutes they were manned up – including just six after halftime.
James Jordon conceded 18 disposals to Jordan Clark in the 68 minutes they were matched up before Jordan was moved to Caleb Serong in the second half. Serong had 16 disposals to halftime but could only add seven to his name in the second half.
Jordan Dawson had just six disposals in the 37 minutes he had a Toby Bedford tag in the first half, with Bedford conceding 17 for the match from 65 minutes.
Zak Butters was one player to break a tag, collecting 20 disposals and kicking a goal in the 82 minutes he was manned by Marcus Windhager.
Stat of the Week – Ranking points by ladder position
SuperCoach scoring can often be dependent on the quality of opposition – that is, are they one of the stronger top-eight sides, or do they languish towards the bottom end of the AFL ladder? In saying that, the elite players will score well no matter who they’re matched up against. When breaking down the numbers, averages against top-eight and bottom-10 teams is an effective way to measure a player’s output against different opponents.
The cream always rises to the top, which is why Nick Daicos averages a competition-high 131.3 points against top-eight sides, along with 31.8 disposals, 12.8 contested possessions, 1.4 score assists and one goal. He has scored 125-plus in five of six games against these opponents.
Luke Ryan has scored 130-plus in three of six games against top-eight teams – averaging 27 disposals, 632 metres gained, 2.8 intercept marks and 7.3 intercept possessions. He also racked up 197 when he last faced this round’s opponent, Richmond.
Marcus Bontempelli rounds out the top three with a 128.5-point average – scoring 130-plus in four of seven games – averaging 27.4 disposals, 13.3 contested possessions, and 1.3 goals. Interestingly, he also averages 127.9 against bottom-10 teams and is a model of consistency.
Six of the top-10 scorers are midfielders and none are ruckmen.
In contrast to scores against top-eight opposition, three of the 10 best scorers against bottom-10 sides are ruckmen, led by Max Gawn’s 138.4 points. He has scored 160-plus in three of seven games against teams outside the eight and faces the Eagles at the MCG this week, who could be without Matt Flynn due to injury.
Sam Walsh is the best midfielder on this list with an average of 135.8 points – tallying 120-plus in four of five games – averaging 32.2 disposals, 481 metres gained and 9.6 score involvements. Walsh is a prime candidate for the Toby Bedford tag this round.
As mentioned above, Bontempelli averages 127.9 against bottom-10 teams and is the only player to rank top-three against both sets of opponents.
Brodie Grundy and Tristan Xerri are the other rucks to feature here.
