I mean, the whole points of SC is trying to predict bring in the guys who break-out go elite, Jack steeles averages went 64,63,91,94,95,122... if you don't grab steele that year using the same logic you used here, you've tanked your season. I guess you sin some you lose some. my real beef with rowell is that he didn;t just stink it up with a 100 point average over the last 7 weeks (100 average is pretty stinky for a premo-mid) but he's gone 70, that is almost inconceivable.
And the key is not paying at the “elite prices“ and getting those that break-out on the cheap and before everyone cottons on.
I totally agree his fall from grace unfortunately has been spectacular. I am sure everyone has been caught in one of these situations at some point. Picking break out players however usually requires you to take a risk and go early (as Connoisseur observed). Steele actually went 91, 94, 95, 114 and then 126. The 95 was in 2019 when he started well, dipped and then finished well. His issue was he was often used at that time as a run with player. His targets including Bont and Fyfe among others. However there was talk of him as a breakout player for 2020 as the 2019 season ended. It depended on his role. So he had lots of interest at the start of 2020 and people that took the risk of starting him were rewarded.
Take Flanders this year. Nobody would have expected him to roll out a ton every game. But after a dodgy start to 2023 his last 10 games produced an ave of 106. So in a 2024 Fwd line devoid of solid SC options and a start price of $494 he represented a risk but also potential upside. And those that thought the risk at the start was too much soon got on before his price increased too much. If you got on late you still did okay this time round but usually you don’t.
As a Pies supporter you may well remember the 2013 (showing my age there) season when Travis Cloke started 92, 79, 133, 195, 63, 124 for an ave of 114 as a pure Fwd. Everyone busted a gut to get him in their team Rds 5 and 6 only to see it fall apart with his price dropping from a high of 575k to 446k just 5 rounds later.
Put it another way. Would you be as disappointed if you had started Rowell. Probably you would have been much more inclined to jump off once the wheels started to fall off. Take the risk, ride them hard and then take the money and run knowing you got the good end of the deal when it goes bust.
Someone once mentioned on this site that the trick is not what players you start with, or finish with, but
when you have them that makes the difference.