Opinion Questions For Rowsus
- Thread starter Rowsus
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Thanks guys, appreciate the help just another question and using that analogy;
How is STDEV able to extrapolate the SD of all AFL player's weight with only 1/18ths of the data and no way of knowing the data it has is only 1/18th?
Bottom line, I'm guessing if you want to find the SD of players over the last 7 rounds, or the 23 rounds last year you'd use STDEV.P?
How is STDEV able to extrapolate the SD of all AFL player's weight with only 1/18ths of the data and no way of knowing the data it has is only 1/18th?
Bottom line, I'm guessing if you want to find the SD of players over the last 7 rounds, or the 23 rounds last year you'd use STDEV.P?
Nearly everything about Walkers season in 2013 just screamed "spike".
He's a 150+ game player that recorded a 20+ pts/game jump on his career best.
His numbers didn't seem to support his scoring. Just comparing his 2012 and 2013 figures, in 2013 his goals/game dropped 0.8, his CP's dropped 0.7 and his H'balls dropped 0.9 and his kicks went up 5.9, yet all that equated to a 27/game rise in his score. (Before everyone jumps in, I know there is more to score structure than that, but they are the bones of it.). His SC to DT seemed historically too high as well, and made me think it was not sustainable. It just didn't look or feel like 106 season, and the numbers support that feeling to quite some extent. Amongst his scoring last season, he had:
Rnd 1 - 26 possessions, 0 goals, for 137 points
Rnd 6 - 21 possessions, 1 goal, for 141 points
Rnd 10 - 34 possessions, 0 goals, for 150 points
Rnd 11 - 28 possessions, 0 goals, for 140 points
Rnd 23 - 25 possessions, 0 goals, for 123 points
They are all high scores for someone operating on a CP rate of around 25%, and isn't kicking goals. Keep in mind, they are Selwood type scores, where Selwood is operating on a CP rate of 50%, and kicking 2 goals/game in most of those good scores. Yes, scores like that can and obviously do happen, but he seemed to get more than his share last season (even with some of them having a high K:H ratio). You wouldn't want to pay top dollar for him, and rely on a repeat of those "generous" scores to get the return you want on your money.
Given he was obviously priced to that 106, I felt he was never really going to be a good selection this year, value-wise. He is starting to get down to his right price now, but I would want him even just that little bit cheaper before I got him, and I wouldn't be expecting a 100/game return from him.
R Gray is certainly living up to his displayed potential this season. I'm prepared to say I might have let his previous injury woes cloud my judgement with him. Though having said that, I'm still not confident he'll see the season out, but I guess that applies to so many players. I personally think the boat might have sailed on him now. If you haven't got him, he's no value now. It appears that you are paying around the right Price for him now. I guess you can afford to do that with 2 or 3 players, but in general, if you are not finding value, you may struggle to fill your team with the quality you want/need.
He's a 150+ game player that recorded a 20+ pts/game jump on his career best.
His numbers didn't seem to support his scoring. Just comparing his 2012 and 2013 figures, in 2013 his goals/game dropped 0.8, his CP's dropped 0.7 and his H'balls dropped 0.9 and his kicks went up 5.9, yet all that equated to a 27/game rise in his score. (Before everyone jumps in, I know there is more to score structure than that, but they are the bones of it.). His SC to DT seemed historically too high as well, and made me think it was not sustainable. It just didn't look or feel like 106 season, and the numbers support that feeling to quite some extent. Amongst his scoring last season, he had:
Rnd 1 - 26 possessions, 0 goals, for 137 points
Rnd 6 - 21 possessions, 1 goal, for 141 points
Rnd 10 - 34 possessions, 0 goals, for 150 points
Rnd 11 - 28 possessions, 0 goals, for 140 points
Rnd 23 - 25 possessions, 0 goals, for 123 points
They are all high scores for someone operating on a CP rate of around 25%, and isn't kicking goals. Keep in mind, they are Selwood type scores, where Selwood is operating on a CP rate of 50%, and kicking 2 goals/game in most of those good scores. Yes, scores like that can and obviously do happen, but he seemed to get more than his share last season (even with some of them having a high K:H ratio). You wouldn't want to pay top dollar for him, and rely on a repeat of those "generous" scores to get the return you want on your money.
Given he was obviously priced to that 106, I felt he was never really going to be a good selection this year, value-wise. He is starting to get down to his right price now, but I would want him even just that little bit cheaper before I got him, and I wouldn't be expecting a 100/game return from him.
R Gray is certainly living up to his displayed potential this season. I'm prepared to say I might have let his previous injury woes cloud my judgement with him. Though having said that, I'm still not confident he'll see the season out, but I guess that applies to so many players. I personally think the boat might have sailed on him now. If you haven't got him, he's no value now. It appears that you are paying around the right Price for him now. I guess you can afford to do that with 2 or 3 players, but in general, if you are not finding value, you may struggle to fill your team with the quality you want/need.
when you look closely at walker and those games where his SC was high for such a small amount of disposals without contested possies/ goals he does appear to be a spike. you explain things very well. I was 'expecting' a few larger scores from walker if I trade him - if he doesn't get them it certainly appears to be a waste of money to trade him t his current price.
Robbie gray is tempting me this week, swap for wright
thanks gain rowsus!
Well it is really a best guess or as statisticians and researchers say 'estimation'. Researchers and pollsters use it all the time as it is usually impractical to get the data for entire world's population. eg 45% of Aussie men prefer blondes. It is impractical to interview 10 million odd aussie men but you can interview a random sample of men and then use that data to make an estimation.
Obviously the more data they have the more accurate the prediction will be, but you would be surprised at how you can get a fairly accurate picture from a relatively small amount of data.
It should be noted that the sample used is meant to be a random sample. So for my AFL players weight example you would generally use 1/18 of players selected randomly over the 18 clubs as opposed to all being from the one club. This would be more accurate as it eliminates factors such as Fremantle preferring players to be heavier than normal. Plus since the weight of all players in the AFL is available you would rather use that instead so my example is probably not the best.
In terms of calculating the standard deviation of the players over the last 7 weeks if you include every single player then yes use STDEV.P.
PS If you ever do a survey over the phone instead of hanging up on the poor telephone interviewer they will often ask some demographic questions (eg age, sex, ethnic background, location, earning power etc). This can be used to get a good idea of what different demographic think of an issue however it can also be used to ensure that they get a good representation of the diversity of the population.
What tends to happen is that generally older females are more likely to do a survey hence the phone interviewer will often ask to speak to the youngest male in the household in order to get the a better balance.
Obviously the more data they have the more accurate the prediction will be, but you would be surprised at how you can get a fairly accurate picture from a relatively small amount of data.
It should be noted that the sample used is meant to be a random sample. So for my AFL players weight example you would generally use 1/18 of players selected randomly over the 18 clubs as opposed to all being from the one club. This would be more accurate as it eliminates factors such as Fremantle preferring players to be heavier than normal. Plus since the weight of all players in the AFL is available you would rather use that instead so my example is probably not the best.
In terms of calculating the standard deviation of the players over the last 7 weeks if you include every single player then yes use STDEV.P.
PS If you ever do a survey over the phone instead of hanging up on the poor telephone interviewer they will often ask some demographic questions (eg age, sex, ethnic background, location, earning power etc). This can be used to get a good idea of what different demographic think of an issue however it can also be used to ensure that they get a good representation of the diversity of the population.
What tends to happen is that generally older females are more likely to do a survey hence the phone interviewer will often ask to speak to the youngest male in the household in order to get the a better balance.
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Hi, I've had Hickey on the bench with King all season and been loop-holing him with Sandi & Minson. This has worked well for me so far, but with Hickey now out 8-10 weeks will I be better off:
1. Side-trading Hickey to NicNat and continue with the loop-holing, or
2. Downgrading Hickey to Derricx and use the spare cash somewhere else?
1. Side-trading Hickey to NicNat and continue with the loop-holing, or
2. Downgrading Hickey to Derricx and use the spare cash somewhere else?
Rowsus,
I am confused as to why Birchall is averaging less now than what he was in 2012, perhaps you can shed some light on the situation.
2012 is Birchall's best year for supercoach to date, with an average of 94.6. This year, he is averaging 90.86.
In comparison to 2012, this year Birchall is averaging 4.2 more disposals per game, 0.2 more marks per game, 0.4 more kicks per game and 3.4 more handballs per game. The only areas I can see that Birchall is averaging less this year than 2012 is, 1.4 less tackles per game and 0.5 less frees for per game.
So why is it that Birchall is not currently registering a career-high supercoach average this year?
Does it have something to do with Hawthorn's dominance and the fact that all players' scores must equal 3300?
I am confused as to why Birchall is averaging less now than what he was in 2012, perhaps you can shed some light on the situation.
2012 is Birchall's best year for supercoach to date, with an average of 94.6. This year, he is averaging 90.86.
In comparison to 2012, this year Birchall is averaging 4.2 more disposals per game, 0.2 more marks per game, 0.4 more kicks per game and 3.4 more handballs per game. The only areas I can see that Birchall is averaging less this year than 2012 is, 1.4 less tackles per game and 0.5 less frees for per game.
So why is it that Birchall is not currently registering a career-high supercoach average this year?
Does it have something to do with Hawthorn's dominance and the fact that all players' scores must equal 3300?
Hey Rowsus, this is actually Mudflap's idea from the Round 8 Trades thread but I am seriously considering it.
Trade Cotchin out this round for someone like Tyson who's on the bubble. Then in round 10 trade Tyson back to Selwood. It does seem a little wasteful considering I used a trade to get Tyson in, one to get him out and then will use 2 more to do the same again, but Cotchin is going to be the death of me. Your thoughts? Are there any other ways I could utilize a Cotchin trade this round?
Trade Cotchin out this round for someone like Tyson who's on the bubble. Then in round 10 trade Tyson back to Selwood. It does seem a little wasteful considering I used a trade to get Tyson in, one to get him out and then will use 2 more to do the same again, but Cotchin is going to be the death of me. Your thoughts? Are there any other ways I could utilize a Cotchin trade this round?
It looks better than your first proposal. J Lloyd will be popular this week, and if Ambrose is selected he too will be very popular. Joey's a good selection, but hopeless for value. He is priced to score 127/game, and I think you'd get more value out of Watson, and possibly Griffen. They might score a bit lower than Joey, but the Money saved will get you a good way to your next upgrade.
jmack5,
it's not a big difference. We are only looking at 3.74/game.
when you're comparing the stats for this, you have to take out his 3 finals in 2012, and that slightly alters your analysis. Compared to 2012 Birchall is roughly:
Same kicks, 2.8 more hballs/game, 1.5 less CP's/game, 1.4 less tackles/game, .1 more goal game. His DE is also around 4% lower this season compared to 2012. I am happy enough that the numbers add up. It certainly has little, but not nothing, to do with Hawthorns dominance.
it's not a big difference. We are only looking at 3.74/game.
when you're comparing the stats for this, you have to take out his 3 finals in 2012, and that slightly alters your analysis. Compared to 2012 Birchall is roughly:
Same kicks, 2.8 more hballs/game, 1.5 less CP's/game, 1.4 less tackles/game, .1 more goal game. His DE is also around 4% lower this season compared to 2012. I am happy enough that the numbers add up. It certainly has little, but not nothing, to do with Hawthorns dominance.
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