Discussion 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN
- Thread starter freowho
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I usually, if practical, like to have a D/M and M/F rookie on my mid bench for DPP flexibility. But that might get tricky this year because of the number of high profile mid only rookies that are expected to play. Although you don’t want to miss any of them, you cannot have them all and the mid squeeze gets worse when you consider that value priced experienced mids like Oliver and Ashcroft are also going to be hard to pass up.
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Key thoughts post team picker
Structure - how many premiums over $500k vs mid pricers (over $200k) and rookies. Currently 9-6-16. Oliver etc treated as MP.
Premiums are 3-3-2-1-0 (flex)
Defence - do you load up premiums to create room in mids for rookies. Likely Flanders and Sheezel 5-10pct over valued based on late season roles yet finish top 6. Find it hard not to take an early bye premium in houston or whitfield. Coleman a risk as unlikely for opening round.
Flex - have moved from 3 rucks to 2 premiums only with question marks now over Marshall. Likely we may see a Saints playing R3 (yet to be included in SC selections, has to be upgraded to squad).
Fwds - easy to load up with a JHF Marcae Smith Pou Daniels fwd line. Does Kennedy Rankine and others make the top 6 eventually.
Any thoughts and comparisions welcome.
Structure - how many premiums over $500k vs mid pricers (over $200k) and rookies. Currently 9-6-16. Oliver etc treated as MP.
Premiums are 3-3-2-1-0 (flex)
Defence - do you load up premiums to create room in mids for rookies. Likely Flanders and Sheezel 5-10pct over valued based on late season roles yet finish top 6. Find it hard not to take an early bye premium in houston or whitfield. Coleman a risk as unlikely for opening round.
Flex - have moved from 3 rucks to 2 premiums only with question marks now over Marshall. Likely we may see a Saints playing R3 (yet to be included in SC selections, has to be upgraded to squad).
Fwds - easy to load up with a JHF Marcae Smith Pou Daniels fwd line. Does Kennedy Rankine and others make the top 6 eventually.
Any thoughts and comparisions welcome.
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Yes. Smashing it apparently. Marshall played fwd.
Appears Saints have signed him, just not up loaded yet into SC HS. Expect they do this once deadline finalised for all teams
View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2v1LbUWu0I4
Appears Saints have signed him, just not up loaded yet into SC HS. Expect they do this once deadline finalised for all teams
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If he is a playing R3 then I'm inclined to go a mid in that other position I am not allowed to mention- I'm sailing close to the line @Connoisseur but not crossing over it.
Very similar, but with 3 premiums over $600k and Lynch rookie priced, so 9-6-16, premiums are 2-4-2-0-1
Early days but the rookies are going to dictate my structure. Could well see14 of the top 20 picks debut early and then try to make room for those that have a preseason or two under their belt like, El-Hawli-Curtain-Sheldrick-Boyd-Reid etc.
Early days but the rookies are going to dictate my structure. Could well see14 of the top 20 picks debut early and then try to make room for those that have a preseason or two under their belt like, El-Hawli-Curtain-Sheldrick-Boyd-Reid etc.
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Some training news relevant to Oliver. There is a photo but it is an old one of him. Seriously slim compared to last years version.
Track watch: Star Demon back to his best as electric forward continues midfield trial - AFL News - Zero Hanger
Update. This is from Big Footy training report Wednesday. There was also a photo from training but it is too small to see much re his physique.
Track watch: Star Demon back to his best as electric forward continues midfield trial - AFL News - Zero Hanger
Update. This is from Big Footy training report Wednesday. There was also a photo from training but it is too small to see much re his physique.
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Not sure it's possible in the modern game with so many trades because the teams all end up more or less the same and you've got so many extra trades that the positive POD gets closed off way too fast in the home stretch, there's just no ghost ships in the top 100 floating home unarmed.
Simple reality is that it's basically nailing the starting side and the first 10 weeks that decides it these days. The extra 20 trades just means it's actually hard to not have the 5 spare at the end, so to have an advantage you basically would need 10 and I don't know if there's ever been enough carnage at the end of a season to need that many trades, compounded by only being able to use 2 a week, you basically need 5 out of the last 8 or so weeks to have 2 mainstream players go down for extended periods if you're going to close a gap. Thrown on top of all that is that most sides will have 24 or 25 premium types in their final side anyway, so you're very often not even replacing a donut or even a rookie with that late trade.
Reality is that an upgrade in round 5 is worth somewhere in the 700 point region (40 points a week better off) compared to a total donut avoidance only being 110ish, so those late trades just don't have nearly the same return.
With so many trades you no longer really have the decisions that you used to have, there's no "taking a value play", there's no real trade budgeting and with the boost there's even fewer "A over B" decisions in a season, if two guys are must haves in a week, you can basically get them even with an injury thanks to the boosts.
Flex position is a change at least. Hard to see it not just being an extra midfielder or ruck over a forward scenario though for the last 15 or so rounds. Looking at this year's rookies, I dare say it's just an extra midfielder for the first 2 months as well as that crop looks very juicy. My gut says that the ruck will be the best option if there's 3 worthwhile rucks, which is likely, as you'll be able to cover that spot and cash into a base value R3 for looping purposes and can then cover through that player.
Simple reality is that it's basically nailing the starting side and the first 10 weeks that decides it these days. The extra 20 trades just means it's actually hard to not have the 5 spare at the end, so to have an advantage you basically would need 10 and I don't know if there's ever been enough carnage at the end of a season to need that many trades, compounded by only being able to use 2 a week, you basically need 5 out of the last 8 or so weeks to have 2 mainstream players go down for extended periods if you're going to close a gap. Thrown on top of all that is that most sides will have 24 or 25 premium types in their final side anyway, so you're very often not even replacing a donut or even a rookie with that late trade.
Reality is that an upgrade in round 5 is worth somewhere in the 700 point region (40 points a week better off) compared to a total donut avoidance only being 110ish, so those late trades just don't have nearly the same return.
With so many trades you no longer really have the decisions that you used to have, there's no "taking a value play", there's no real trade budgeting and with the boost there's even fewer "A over B" decisions in a season, if two guys are must haves in a week, you can basically get them even with an injury thanks to the boosts.
Flex position is a change at least. Hard to see it not just being an extra midfielder or ruck over a forward scenario though for the last 15 or so rounds. Looking at this year's rookies, I dare say it's just an extra midfielder for the first 2 months as well as that crop looks very juicy. My gut says that the ruck will be the best option if there's 3 worthwhile rucks, which is likely, as you'll be able to cover that spot and cash into a base value R3 for looping purposes and can then cover through that player.
Thanks for the response , food for thought for sure.
I can't seem to ever have spare trades at the end, and I needed a few for last season's League GF's, this is what I had to run with in the final week....
And this is how many trades I had left from round 20....
I did have a rotten start to the season though so blew a bunch of trades trying to fix things early.
I can't seem to ever have spare trades at the end, and I needed a few for last season's League GF's, this is what I had to run with in the final week....
And this is how many trades I had left from round 20....
I did have a rotten start to the season though so blew a bunch of trades trying to fix things early.
Yeah, league play is a completely different beast to overall and you should definitely hold trades if that's the focus, I think league and overall basically requires two entirely separate teams if you're serious about both of them as league you should hold rookies to absolute peak and bye at absolute bottom as opposed to going early on both to optimise weekly points.
The trick is not to burn trades sideways, the temptation with what feels like unlimited trades is to do trades you otherwise wouldn't, in that regard, attempting to have 10 trades at round 16 is probably a good ballpark aimpoint if you're prone to impulse sideways trades!
The trick is not to burn trades sideways, the temptation with what feels like unlimited trades is to do trades you otherwise wouldn't, in that regard, attempting to have 10 trades at round 16 is probably a good ballpark aimpoint if you're prone to impulse sideways trades!
Had a first crack, way too early to really mean anything but looks an interesting season with a lot of interesting value options, no doubt a significant amount will remove themselves from consideration but right now it looks to me there are more options than normal, even with the stupid round 0 mess around. Horse's firing has definitely increased my motivation for the season at least, still definitely not caring like in the past but that's something!
DEF
Sheezel - No round 0, 121 average for 2nd half of season. Honestly my biggest concern on him is tags, that's about as good a biggest concern as can exist. Only other negative is I do think he's very limited value but you need to pick a couple of best 6 guys and I don't think 125 is beyond him.
Sinclair - Had the calf, iirc, to start last season which is a concern but he averaged 99 for the first half of the season and 119 for the 2nd half of the season, which is in line with his last couple of seasons, no round 0 bye and the delightful 2 team round 13 bye for a kicker. I dare say I'd need an injury in preseason for me to not pick him as one of my favourite players in the league.
McKercher - Really rate him. Averaged 105 in 2nd half of season. Daniel is a genuine concern but Kerch is a better player and has a ton of upside. I don't really see any reason he can't push 115. No round 0 again. His bye could be an issue but there's not a lot from those sides I like so probably starting just about all of them.
Rivers - This is a role watch, to be honest I'd like probably push down to a rookie here unless he blows me away and get another of the value forwards/mids or premium rucks onto the field.
Rookies - Pure placeholders, I always like to overload on expensive guys. It makes the initial teams a bit weaker but far easier to have them in place if they're musts and go down then make bad decisions elsewhere trying to go up to them.
MID
Bont - Captain play. Think he's basically maxed out, most of the elite 120+ guys like him sustain it for 3-4 years, 2025 would be year 3. He's durable, elite captain and no round 0. Definitely not a lock by any means but he's definitely the "full price" guy that I'm picking first in the mids.
LDU - Started last year awfully but closed out the back half averaging 113 and that goes up to 116 if I added one more game into that. Far from any kind of lock and the bye doesn't fit great with Bont and then the double North down back but it is what it is or that it's the early bye but if he works as a pick, the discount starting him is better than the bye targeting. That said given his propensity for a stinker or 3, definitely does have upgrade target potential also.
Petracca - I honestly don't love this pick, a lot of the ironmen tend to fall off a cliff once that first injury hits. Hard to argue the value, no round 0 and a pretty good bye. Honestly there's a dozen other mids I like so not close to a lock but I dare say he'll be very popular and probably not worth fading if he looks good.
Rozee - Even more speculative than the previous two, injury and then playing through it really hurt his season last year and it never really got going again after that. I think Houston going will open a bit more scoring for him and Butters, who both like to float into HB for a few cheapies. 111 average after the mid move in 2023, only 106 last year pre injury but a small sample when the side wasn't playing well so happy to more or less ignore. Given the bye, he'd probably be the one to go out but one for discussion and to watch at least.
Oliver - Very similar to Petracca, I don't like this pick very much but he'll be in every side most likely and it feels like one of those classic the risk isn't worth the reward of fading it, assuming he's fit. Will be watching it, structurally I definitely prefer some of the forwards below this price a lot more as the keeper threshold is so much more attainable and the bailouts look a lot more plausible. I hate these midrange picks where there's no bailout other than a rookie. To be fair, the flex position definitely makes this a bit better though as I can bail to the other positions at least, so not as rigid. Still, I definitely feel like I'm going to be looking for reasons to not pick him...
Rookies - As above with pricing. I expect I will ditch Rozee to start an extra one, looks to be very MID biased with the rooks to me. They're just names at this point though.
RUC
English - I am not sold here but will start with him and let either English or someone else force me to spend up. Pretty sure he was injured in preseason last year, iirc, and happy to put his season mostly down to that. Think the ruck rule is a 5 point change, not 20, so should bounce back to the 115-125 range, imo. I really like Xerri, Gawn, Marshall and Darcy here though, so not at all locked in.
Flynn - Will be a starter if he's fit for round 1. You don't get proven 85+ scorers at this price point very often. Flex makes this even easier to do. He's a lock if fit and the #1.
Rookie - A name, cheap DPP to fill the slot. As always I will take someone if they look like they'll make cash.
FWD
JHF - Followed a solid score trajectory profile of those slightly unfit top draft pick types, I don't see why he can't jump another 5-10 points and the 20 point jump is not impossible. Basically he should be top 6 and has a very good chance of being #1. So I see value, premium and no round 0. That's a good bet. Albeit this bye is definitely getting overloaded as I progress through!
Macrae - Very much a watch, if he's playing midfield he's Macrae and he's a lock. If he's not, then I wont pick him. There's definitely midfield minutes at St Kilda and for now I'll put it down to the Bevo factor as opposed to his body being completely wrecked as those are the only two things that explain him suddenly going from a top 5 midfielder to not getting any midfield minutes at all in a mediocre side. I will blame Bevo until I have proof otherwise.
Smith - I don't really rate him but Geelong's track record of getting the absolute max out of players is just too good to ignore. My only round 0 guy that is on field at least, value is too good. I don't rate him but he's a proven 95 guy priced at 72. I'd be surprised if 95+ isn't the premium range again and if you pay 72 for that 95 it's even better.
Phillipou - Will take a fair bit for me to not pick him. I rate him very highly and Ross finally remembered he was a midfielder for the last month of the season where he put up a very solid 95 average. Another preseason and he really should be locked in to a midfield that is shamefully lacking in any kind of class. I honestly don't see any reason he can't be a 105 guy playing midfield with his skillset. Will take a 90+ at this price though.
Rookies - A bit more thought on the names here but they'll work themselves out. Have not done any research on if any of them are actually fit for round 1, got months to work that out
DEF
Sheezel - No round 0, 121 average for 2nd half of season. Honestly my biggest concern on him is tags, that's about as good a biggest concern as can exist. Only other negative is I do think he's very limited value but you need to pick a couple of best 6 guys and I don't think 125 is beyond him.
Sinclair - Had the calf, iirc, to start last season which is a concern but he averaged 99 for the first half of the season and 119 for the 2nd half of the season, which is in line with his last couple of seasons, no round 0 bye and the delightful 2 team round 13 bye for a kicker. I dare say I'd need an injury in preseason for me to not pick him as one of my favourite players in the league.
McKercher - Really rate him. Averaged 105 in 2nd half of season. Daniel is a genuine concern but Kerch is a better player and has a ton of upside. I don't really see any reason he can't push 115. No round 0 again. His bye could be an issue but there's not a lot from those sides I like so probably starting just about all of them.
Rivers - This is a role watch, to be honest I'd like probably push down to a rookie here unless he blows me away and get another of the value forwards/mids or premium rucks onto the field.
Rookies - Pure placeholders, I always like to overload on expensive guys. It makes the initial teams a bit weaker but far easier to have them in place if they're musts and go down then make bad decisions elsewhere trying to go up to them.
MID
Bont - Captain play. Think he's basically maxed out, most of the elite 120+ guys like him sustain it for 3-4 years, 2025 would be year 3. He's durable, elite captain and no round 0. Definitely not a lock by any means but he's definitely the "full price" guy that I'm picking first in the mids.
LDU - Started last year awfully but closed out the back half averaging 113 and that goes up to 116 if I added one more game into that. Far from any kind of lock and the bye doesn't fit great with Bont and then the double North down back but it is what it is or that it's the early bye but if he works as a pick, the discount starting him is better than the bye targeting. That said given his propensity for a stinker or 3, definitely does have upgrade target potential also.
Petracca - I honestly don't love this pick, a lot of the ironmen tend to fall off a cliff once that first injury hits. Hard to argue the value, no round 0 and a pretty good bye. Honestly there's a dozen other mids I like so not close to a lock but I dare say he'll be very popular and probably not worth fading if he looks good.
Rozee - Even more speculative than the previous two, injury and then playing through it really hurt his season last year and it never really got going again after that. I think Houston going will open a bit more scoring for him and Butters, who both like to float into HB for a few cheapies. 111 average after the mid move in 2023, only 106 last year pre injury but a small sample when the side wasn't playing well so happy to more or less ignore. Given the bye, he'd probably be the one to go out but one for discussion and to watch at least.
Oliver - Very similar to Petracca, I don't like this pick very much but he'll be in every side most likely and it feels like one of those classic the risk isn't worth the reward of fading it, assuming he's fit. Will be watching it, structurally I definitely prefer some of the forwards below this price a lot more as the keeper threshold is so much more attainable and the bailouts look a lot more plausible. I hate these midrange picks where there's no bailout other than a rookie. To be fair, the flex position definitely makes this a bit better though as I can bail to the other positions at least, so not as rigid. Still, I definitely feel like I'm going to be looking for reasons to not pick him...
Rookies - As above with pricing. I expect I will ditch Rozee to start an extra one, looks to be very MID biased with the rooks to me. They're just names at this point though.
RUC
English - I am not sold here but will start with him and let either English or someone else force me to spend up. Pretty sure he was injured in preseason last year, iirc, and happy to put his season mostly down to that. Think the ruck rule is a 5 point change, not 20, so should bounce back to the 115-125 range, imo. I really like Xerri, Gawn, Marshall and Darcy here though, so not at all locked in.
Flynn - Will be a starter if he's fit for round 1. You don't get proven 85+ scorers at this price point very often. Flex makes this even easier to do. He's a lock if fit and the #1.
Rookie - A name, cheap DPP to fill the slot. As always I will take someone if they look like they'll make cash.
FWD
JHF - Followed a solid score trajectory profile of those slightly unfit top draft pick types, I don't see why he can't jump another 5-10 points and the 20 point jump is not impossible. Basically he should be top 6 and has a very good chance of being #1. So I see value, premium and no round 0. That's a good bet. Albeit this bye is definitely getting overloaded as I progress through!
Macrae - Very much a watch, if he's playing midfield he's Macrae and he's a lock. If he's not, then I wont pick him. There's definitely midfield minutes at St Kilda and for now I'll put it down to the Bevo factor as opposed to his body being completely wrecked as those are the only two things that explain him suddenly going from a top 5 midfielder to not getting any midfield minutes at all in a mediocre side. I will blame Bevo until I have proof otherwise.
Smith - I don't really rate him but Geelong's track record of getting the absolute max out of players is just too good to ignore. My only round 0 guy that is on field at least, value is too good. I don't rate him but he's a proven 95 guy priced at 72. I'd be surprised if 95+ isn't the premium range again and if you pay 72 for that 95 it's even better.
Phillipou - Will take a fair bit for me to not pick him. I rate him very highly and Ross finally remembered he was a midfielder for the last month of the season where he put up a very solid 95 average. Another preseason and he really should be locked in to a midfield that is shamefully lacking in any kind of class. I honestly don't see any reason he can't be a 105 guy playing midfield with his skillset. Will take a 90+ at this price though.
Rookies - A bit more thought on the names here but they'll work themselves out. Have not done any research on if any of them are actually fit for round 1, got months to work that out