Probably a good chance to get DPP. With Barrass and Battle added to the team, I wouldn't be surprised if he is one of the players who gets moved out of defence, and he could play pretty much anywhere. Likely the best athlete in the team, if not the comp in terms of endurance running and also competes in the ruck at times (good luck any ruck keeping up with him). Definitely one to keep an eye on over pre-season. A wing role is possibly where he'll end up, but not sure.
Discussion 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN
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Balance - $89,900
Def - I have foregone Sheezel (Round 12 bye), Ryan (Chapman/Clark) and Sinclair (Macrae/Philippou on midfield rotations), hoping for a 3rd year breakout on Weddle (off-set R0).
Mid - Basically cookie cutter setup with a few mid-priced (Philippou/Baker/Oliver) selections.
I have gone Merrett because every time I have omitted him; he has been a pain to bring in.
Ruck - I have gone for some growth/value in TDK (C90/C60), Meek and Flynn
Fwd - The usual suspects for pre-season with the addition of Curtin, Hewett and Lynch.
Lynch is due a bit of luck on the injury front and is training well (touch wood) and with a solid pre-season behind him represents value.
Let me know what you think......
Yeah, nice team and can understand the reasoning but maybe not the execution. By that I mean you're very exposed on the defence line, with a fair probability that none of those players are keepers and banking on breakouts or a return of form/role, I think it's ok to take a punt on one of Short, Humphries or Weddle but the combination of all 3 might see you chasing your tail, so to speak.
I'm a bit suss on Baker, he's never had a season over 82, I know there's reasons for that given the utility role, but he'd have to average mid keeper levels to make the pick worthwhile, he's priced about 92 (I think) which I think limits his upside.
Early days yet though
I'm a bit suss on Baker, he's never had a season over 82, I know there's reasons for that given the utility role, but he'd have to average mid keeper levels to make the pick worthwhile, he's priced about 92 (I think) which I think limits his upside.
Early days yet though
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Looking at the top 6 based on last years averages, the sixth best average was 110.0 and Sinclair in 7th was 109.9. Tenth was Clark at 104.6. There may be an argument that some will regress next year, but I would say the minimum you would need for a keeper is 105. Some might argue for 110 as a minimum. Personally I am looking at 110.
I think therefore if you are looking at players with upside, you probably need to be selecting them if you think they can hit 105-110 minimum. For Weddle and Humphries that’s a really big jump. I would argue that with their early bye you might be better trading into them if they start to look like hitting those numbers. Their price won’t be so prohibitive early.
I looked at Short also. Whilst the price says value as he returns to a more favored HB role, the fact that he never averaged more than 100 in the past when he had that role also makes me question whether he can go 105+.
I think this comes down to a few things
1. Are you leaning towards GNR or value based picks and upgrades? I am more GNR, so my advice is biased this way.
2. Do you need proof that someone is capable of hitting a number, or do you back in your judgement on how much they can improve? Spotting that improver ahead of everyone else gives you a great leg up, but with the number of trades available quickly trading these guys in keeps that advantage down. Trading these guys out if they don’t perform similarly sets you back on the field. There is also a chance they average 100-105, which means you did buy some value, but they are never quite bad enough to trade out. I picked NWM last year and he fits that to a tee. So going into this year I will be more biased towards proven performers.
3. are you looking for a different team to everyone else? There was a great deal of sameness around starting and finishing teams in the past few years. So the idea of going in a different direction to the rest of the field has appeal. I have tried that a few times in the past and it hasn’t worked out well at all. It made for really miserable seasons. So I am back to starting team vanilla. When you look at the starting teams of previous winners they have generally looked team vanilla and I often wonder how they beat me by so much. It seems less like starting pods but more on picking up on the right trades early, great captaincy choices and a bit of luck on rookie roulette and injuries. So, while I get the idea of starting out a bit left field, I would argue that nobody has actually won doing that.
Good luck with whatever you decide.
I think therefore if you are looking at players with upside, you probably need to be selecting them if you think they can hit 105-110 minimum. For Weddle and Humphries that’s a really big jump. I would argue that with their early bye you might be better trading into them if they start to look like hitting those numbers. Their price won’t be so prohibitive early.
I looked at Short also. Whilst the price says value as he returns to a more favored HB role, the fact that he never averaged more than 100 in the past when he had that role also makes me question whether he can go 105+.
I think this comes down to a few things
1. Are you leaning towards GNR or value based picks and upgrades? I am more GNR, so my advice is biased this way.
2. Do you need proof that someone is capable of hitting a number, or do you back in your judgement on how much they can improve? Spotting that improver ahead of everyone else gives you a great leg up, but with the number of trades available quickly trading these guys in keeps that advantage down. Trading these guys out if they don’t perform similarly sets you back on the field. There is also a chance they average 100-105, which means you did buy some value, but they are never quite bad enough to trade out. I picked NWM last year and he fits that to a tee. So going into this year I will be more biased towards proven performers.
3. are you looking for a different team to everyone else? There was a great deal of sameness around starting and finishing teams in the past few years. So the idea of going in a different direction to the rest of the field has appeal. I have tried that a few times in the past and it hasn’t worked out well at all. It made for really miserable seasons. So I am back to starting team vanilla. When you look at the starting teams of previous winners they have generally looked team vanilla and I often wonder how they beat me by so much. It seems less like starting pods but more on picking up on the right trades early, great captaincy choices and a bit of luck on rookie roulette and injuries. So, while I get the idea of starting out a bit left field, I would argue that nobody has actually won doing that.
Good luck with whatever you decide.
Some great contributions from you recently @Singapore Flyers. I am enjoying reading them.
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Andy Brayshaw is a selection that interests me.
Quietly went about his business last year with a strong post bye average of 116.5 and a last 5 average of 125.
He is very durable and with the tagger becoming more prominent it would likely go to Serong as we have seen which helps him. Fyfe likely to be pushed out of the mid rotation further which is a help. The bye situation is another positive.
Main negative is he seems to have some cold patches during the season which makes him a potential upgrade candidate. Maybe this is the year he can put it all together.
Quietly went about his business last year with a strong post bye average of 116.5 and a last 5 average of 125.
He is very durable and with the tagger becoming more prominent it would likely go to Serong as we have seen which helps him. Fyfe likely to be pushed out of the mid rotation further which is a help. The bye situation is another positive.
Main negative is he seems to have some cold patches during the season which makes him a potential upgrade candidate. Maybe this is the year he can put it all together.
Great synopsis, the 10ppg I am running with and also a hard mid to crack. Neale, Dunkley, Will Ashcroft, McLuggage etc.That is why I am fading Levi over Will Ashcroft. I am sure I can find a cheaper rookie with similar output and I see Will with the 10ppg upside. Only BNE player that can be started I reckon.
I agree fundamentally but will say that someone like Short is probably cheap enough to justify without the keeper factor, we've got a lot more trades and the case that he's 15-20 points underpriced is a very easy one to make, throw in the potential for very large scores and you've the spike capability to justify starting.
I do think there can be a very reasonable case made for his scoring increasing though, Richmond look pretty awful on paper so if that assumption holds up then you'd expect a lot of kick-ins, if he's taking them then that's a lot of free points.
I totally buy your threshold though, at his price he needs to be 105, which I think is plausible, but even at 100 he'd be a fantastic stepping stone with Richmond's bye.
I do have a couple of extra concerns though, he's been pretty injury prone the past couple of years, last year he played 22 but was under duress for huge chunks of it, missed 7 last year, and it's been soft tissue issues as well which tend to be the kind that keep coming back more as players age. Richmond also do have plenty of HB types, it's not inconceivable to me that he doesn't play there.
Very much on my watch list though, if he looks set to be in that ~100 region, given no r0 factor and his price I think he'd be very high on the list of options.
When I look at the backs I don't see any good reason for either of Flanders or Sheezel dropping off more than a handful of points, Ryan and Sinclair have both been in that 110+ region the past couple of years and should remain although I think Ryan can have a decent case made to drop. Whitfield/Zorko/McGovern are much more wild card than the other 4. Wouldn't be shocked if Martin were to push a bit higher and I like Clark and NWM a lot as picks. Holmes, Sicily, Stewart, Dale and Blakey all strike me as guys who could also put up 110+ seasons if the cards fell right. Basically looks likely that 105 from value and 110 outright look the D6 mark again this year.
His main negative is a lack of class which always throws in some bad games and he's pretty outside which makes that even more pronounced but he's definitely safe from tags because of this (and Serong/Young).
He's certainly not a bad starting pick, he really struggled early last year finding his role with Young pushing him out of the main mix a lot more, I think Bolton will be used through the middle a bit and would eat up any leftover Fyfe minutes.
He's very high on my radar but I think it's more as a safe pick with a great bye option than a genuine upside pick. The propensity for bad games from his skill issues definitely also makes him a huge upgrade option, both of the last couple of seasons he's been available for a 100k haircut on starting price and he's almost certain to have a couple of those games where he can't hit water from a boat but that doesn't exclude as a starter, something nice about a guy you're confident will play 23 games and be in the region of M8.
Levi will be a strong watch in preseason, talent is obvious but as you said, very hard to see where the minutes are, not as good as Will was first year and he also had to battle hard to get minutes.
Looks like there's a good dozen midfield options this year among the rookies so probably not going to need to pay up for a guy in a top tier team on the fringe.
Especially because there's a lot of good looking forward veteran options at rookie prices also.
I do think there can be a very reasonable case made for his scoring increasing though, Richmond look pretty awful on paper so if that assumption holds up then you'd expect a lot of kick-ins, if he's taking them then that's a lot of free points.
I totally buy your threshold though, at his price he needs to be 105, which I think is plausible, but even at 100 he'd be a fantastic stepping stone with Richmond's bye.
I do have a couple of extra concerns though, he's been pretty injury prone the past couple of years, last year he played 22 but was under duress for huge chunks of it, missed 7 last year, and it's been soft tissue issues as well which tend to be the kind that keep coming back more as players age. Richmond also do have plenty of HB types, it's not inconceivable to me that he doesn't play there.
Very much on my watch list though, if he looks set to be in that ~100 region, given no r0 factor and his price I think he'd be very high on the list of options.
When I look at the backs I don't see any good reason for either of Flanders or Sheezel dropping off more than a handful of points, Ryan and Sinclair have both been in that 110+ region the past couple of years and should remain although I think Ryan can have a decent case made to drop. Whitfield/Zorko/McGovern are much more wild card than the other 4. Wouldn't be shocked if Martin were to push a bit higher and I like Clark and NWM a lot as picks. Holmes, Sicily, Stewart, Dale and Blakey all strike me as guys who could also put up 110+ seasons if the cards fell right. Basically looks likely that 105 from value and 110 outright look the D6 mark again this year.
His main negative is a lack of class which always throws in some bad games and he's pretty outside which makes that even more pronounced but he's definitely safe from tags because of this (and Serong/Young).
He's certainly not a bad starting pick, he really struggled early last year finding his role with Young pushing him out of the main mix a lot more, I think Bolton will be used through the middle a bit and would eat up any leftover Fyfe minutes.
He's very high on my radar but I think it's more as a safe pick with a great bye option than a genuine upside pick. The propensity for bad games from his skill issues definitely also makes him a huge upgrade option, both of the last couple of seasons he's been available for a 100k haircut on starting price and he's almost certain to have a couple of those games where he can't hit water from a boat but that doesn't exclude as a starter, something nice about a guy you're confident will play 23 games and be in the region of M8.
Levi will be a strong watch in preseason, talent is obvious but as you said, very hard to see where the minutes are, not as good as Will was first year and he also had to battle hard to get minutes.
Looks like there's a good dozen midfield options this year among the rookies so probably not going to need to pay up for a guy in a top tier team on the fringe.
Especially because there's a lot of good looking forward veteran options at rookie prices also.
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Does anyone see any value in Adam Cerra as a stepping stone?
Adam Cerra Supercoach Statistics
Thank you for taking time to answer my questions.
Adam Cerra Supercoach Statistics
Thank you for taking time to answer my questions.
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It's a pretty mint starting draw, Tigers, Eagles first 5 rounds. A lot will depend on what the Blues midfield mix is and whether he looks first rotation CBA mid in the pre-season as to whether he's a legitimate option.
Maybe its just me but at that price picking a starting option should be viewed as a keeper or not picked at all.
Maybe its just me but at that price picking a starting option should be viewed as a keeper or not picked at all.
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I do have some interest in Shai Bolton this pre-season. He has some big scores under his belt at Optus for SC when he was a Tiger. Obv Freo has the best bye, there is also the lack of genuine forward premos, Shai's DPP, the fact Freo is tossing up genuine SC options yearly. Shai adds something to that midfield in terms of outside play and I reckon that's where they'll play him, but we'll see whether the Freo preseason goes in that direction.
Obviously he is prone to down games but I reckon with that on-ball brigade around him there is a bit of room there for him at his price to present value, especially as a forward.
Obviously he is prone to down games but I reckon with that on-ball brigade around him there is a bit of room there for him at his price to present value, especially as a forward.
Really hard to trust his body at this point, would need an absolutely flawless preseason to get any consideration from me.
Rate him as a player and the 2023 season does show what he's capable of in the right role. Obviously Cripps and Walsh are 1-2 in that midfield, will be interesting to see how they go about things this year with their mix.
He's right on that awkward price point where he pretty much needs keeper numbers to make enough cash to justify taking so there's not a lot of meat on the bones beyond it being a huge win of a pick.
Personally, I'd much rather allocate that kind of money into the plethora of forward options at similar prices where the keeper threshold is 10-15 points lower. Especially given how deep the midfield rookie crop looks.
Will be watching but at this point that's likely where it ends for me.
Rate him as a player and the 2023 season does show what he's capable of in the right role. Obviously Cripps and Walsh are 1-2 in that midfield, will be interesting to see how they go about things this year with their mix.
He's right on that awkward price point where he pretty much needs keeper numbers to make enough cash to justify taking so there's not a lot of meat on the bones beyond it being a huge win of a pick.
Personally, I'd much rather allocate that kind of money into the plethora of forward options at similar prices where the keeper threshold is 10-15 points lower. Especially given how deep the midfield rookie crop looks.
Will be watching but at this point that's likely where it ends for me.
Yes. Possible 10 points under and should be in the midfield rotation.
This means Oliver at M4?. The rookies Jagga Draper Smille M6-M8
Then a early rookie cull RD 5-6 to a Green Merritt Neale Type RD16 bye. See who has lost the most coin.
Also considering Peatling for the same purpose cheaper and i expect similar points.
This means Oliver at M4?. The rookies Jagga Draper Smille M6-M8
Then a early rookie cull RD 5-6 to a Green Merritt Neale Type RD16 bye. See who has lost the most coin.
Also considering Peatling for the same purpose cheaper and i expect similar points.