Just did the numbers on it - it's actually possible for every team to be in the running to make finals until match 38 of 40.
Currently MS on 8, BH on 7, AS, MR, PS all 6. Given PS only have one game to go none of these teams can get to 9 or PS will be out.
So MR need to lose tomorrow - their last game is against Heat and one of them would reach 9 with a Renegades win.
Adelaide result doesn't matter as Perth play them last and both would still be alive regardless of bring on 6 or 8.
Heat then also have to lose to avoid reaching 9 themselves.
Sixers/Thunder is irrelevant to the 4th place battle.
Finally, after Renegades/Heat, one of these teams would be behind the other with no chance to improve, and would finally be eliminated.
The only way every team could have a chance for longer is if all of the top three played in the first two games of the final round. So if Hurricanes/Stars had been game 2 in the final round, and the Stars had lost, it would be possible for them to hold on with a precise set of results. (Not in this case, their NRR would make it impossible, but if they had a better NRR than the chasing pack and results fell right, they could sneak in that way.)