Discussion 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN

[wogitalia]

Good enough reasons for me, Cox could put him in the back pocket for all we know.

To be fair, he scored amazing when he did play defense under Horse and took one of the best marks of the past 20 years as well. Could actually be the top defender if he played there.

The biggest reason for Heeney's 3% ownership is that he's mid only, he was discounted last year as a forward, one of my best starting picks. Put up a massive average before his bye which led to him being out of reach for most from round 6.

All reports that I'm seeing is that Mills has been training with the mids all preseason so someone has to be pushed out of that rotation, my guess is that Heeney will be that guy, he's just too good as a forward option. I'd think that a 60/40 split for Heeney would be around the mark (60%mid)

That's the thing, durability guys like him are worth it when they're significantly underpriced like last year, when they're at career high pricing it's a lot harder to justify. To be fair, as a midfielder he has got upside on his price because he was a 130+ guy pre-injury. I'd say him being healthy is a lower chance than him scoring 130+ if he was healthy as a mid. Forward role is high risk.

Rowbottom is the very obvious one to go out of the mids under a new coach who he, hopefully, doesn't have compromising pictures of, he tries so hard but he's a trash player. Mills can do everything he can defensively and is playing a different sport with the ball and as an outlet in linkup play. I'd love to see Rowbottom playing as a high pressure forward and roll with the very obvious Gulden, Heeney, Mills and Warner quartet which, imo, would be comfortably the best midfield four in the league if it can stay on the park. Unfortunately I expect we'll waste Gulden on a wing and push out the far more talented Heeney and/or Warner to make way for Rowbottom to kick it to the other side a dozen times a game...

Either way, it would take something outstanding in the round 0 game for me to pick any Swan but Mills given the new coach and just the uncertainty of roles, even Mills is only a watchlist guy that I don't love as a pick for now.

In reality the ideal flex player is going to come from two positions. MID or RUCK. Whilst you're not actively choosing who you remove due to variance it will likely end up being someone who routinely fills that D6 or F6 position due to the likelihood of a F6/D6 type averaging over 115 over a season is pretty unlikely.

My first thought was that it gives us a 9th MID to fit in, and that might be the case early to get a better rookie onto the field. But I think come the end of the season, RUCK stands out as a great option in SC specifically. The idea of being able to cram in all of Xerri/Gawn/English style players to provide both elite coverage and increased scoring power. It's probably where I'm looking for my team to end up in an ideal world unless someone can come forward with a compelling reason to slot something else in.

Positions aren't linear and FWDs had Flanders/Heeney etc in there last year who have been removed. But there's over 15 PPG variance between currently listed F6 vs R3 based on average. It's similar putting up the FWDs against the MIDs.

Worth noting that a MID (or FWD/DEF) can cover a ruck, not ideally as it means being down to the traditional 22 scores but they'll still cover if they're missing. Would probably only be worth doing this for a week or two as the lost points could get steep pretty quick. Likelihood is that flex is probably going to be worth in the 30+ points a week, probably more in the early season where there's a lot more variance and likely to be pushing out some terrible scores compared to late season where it's likely premium replacing premium, albeit an early injury would make it a premium covering next to nothing. Might even be more than 30 if the season is fairly chaotic.

 

[Darkie]

Someone else got the answer previously in Hayden Young, I like the thinking with Roberts though!

I have Roberts's adjusted average at 87.8 from the 80.7 which he's priced at. His PPM didn't change dramatically from 0.88 between sub/subbed games and TOG was adjusted to 80% from 73%.

To me definite value with another pre season in the role which is where he's been training as far as I know.

Hehe - I love a good “Who am I?”, but thought I probably didn’t have a perfect fit in this case!

His PPM does seem to have been dragged down earlier in the season, with a stronger finish. He averaged 93 SC when he took two or more kick-ins, in his first year in a new role.

 

[Gruffles]

Had a first cut team and having thoughts on the flex position based on best 22 scoring players of 23 fielded players this year eg. is it best to position a premium player in this position and field additional rookie on field each week that plays late in rounds and emergency early playing rookie to take best score like an extra player loophole switch with a non playing player on the bench each round.. any thoughts on extra loophole ☹️ View attachment 83206

So much value on offer this year mate, you probably want to take advantage of at least some of it...

Oliver, Daniel must haves if fit.
Guys like Mills, Bolten, Phillipou, Peatling, Day, Cerra ect all offer great value too

 

[Toothless Tigers]

AFL 2025: Port Adelaide draftee Joe Berry stars in match sim, Josh Lai, Jack Watkins in SSP race | Herald Sun

 

[Toothless Tigers]

West Coast pre-season training: Elliot Yeo hurt, Andrew McQualter puts his stamp on Eagles | Herald Sun

 

[Santoz]

Really like the balance of this team. Was reluctant on Mills due to his injury history, but if he can string a run of games together playing in the guts he has to be considered. Same with Doedee who I think is being slept on a little as I haven't seen him in many teams, but he can score well for his price.

The MPM keeps the onfield rookies to a minimum and still leaves enough coin for decent bench cover.

 

[Toothless Tigers]

AFL news 2024: Dylan Shiel, Saad El-Hawli standouts during Essendon match sim, training | Herald Sun

 

[Madaz2]

So much value on offer this year mate, you probably want to take advantage of at least some of it...

Oliver, Daniel must haves if fit.
Guys like Mills, Bolten, Phillipou, Peatling, Day, Cerra ect all offer great value too

Correct, there is a lot of value on offer this year. Some who have discounted prices through ongoing injury plagued seasons and some at new clubs that have great potential this year. Questions remain on risk versus reward, that they will get back to there potential scoring ability and cash generation if they do get injured again or extra trades to replace them if they do not perform. I am yet to determine my starting squad and will be reviewing the value and rewards of new player positions also as more match simulation and practice games are played.. will rebalance squad in weeks to come from pure guns and rookies to get onto value and underpriced players in as we see and hear more fitness of any injury plagued players as many truly get back to pre injury affected seasons scoring and end up playing lesser roles in games than prior seasons as other players step up. Best to definitely look at players with new roles though that will significantly increase there scoring potential is a must 😁

 

[Juzzo]

If JUH is awol, will English be solo ruck? Could get back to big numbers.

 

[Chumpion]

One thing I’m finding tricky is that in most iterations, my midfield is entirely mid only players, and so is the player I currently have occupying the flex spot. Meaning I can’t actually loop any mid rookies without starting a donut on the mid line (thus dropping one of my preferred players) or changing one to a dpp player that can swing.
I think I’ll just wear round one knowing I’ll have options over the 2-4 bye rounds, but if a mid emergency goes bang it’ll be a frustrating situation!

One thing I was exploring is putting a dpp donut in the flex spot and using that to loop the best rookie from 2 lines. For example, a D/F dpp in the flex spot could be swapped with a forward or a defender depending on which E scored better, or swapped with a different rookie from the bench on those lines if neither E scores well. The best positions to use this for may change as teams get clearer, but could potentially give 3 bites at a 23rd score.

 

[Chumpion]

If JUH is awol, will English be solo ruck? Could get back to big numbers.

I think Darcy still takes a good chunk of ruck minutes. English and him can basically swap positions and they can replace JUH in other ways if needed. Darcy showed too much in the ruck last year to risk his development stalling by letting him rot in the forward line.

 

[Manikato1]

Hehe - I love a good “Who am I?”, but thought I probably didn’t have a perfect fit in this case!

His PPM does seem to have been dragged down earlier in the season, with a stronger finish. He averaged 93 SC when he took two or more kick-ins, in his first year in a new role.

Roberts exploded in the last 7 games of the season ave 113. This however coincided when Jmac was out with injury. The watch is on the role in the pre season so see if the scenario from those 7 games is continued.

 

[OnTopBar]

One thing I’m finding tricky is that in most iterations, my midfield is entirely mid only players, and so is the player I currently have occupying the flex spot. Meaning I can’t actually loop any mid rookies without starting a donut on the mid line (thus dropping one of my preferred players) or changing one to a dpp player that can swing.
I think I’ll just wear round one knowing I’ll have options over the 2-4 bye rounds, but if a mid emergency goes bang it’ll be a frustrating situation!

One thing I was exploring is putting a dpp donut in the flex spot and using that to loop the best rookie from 2 lines. For example, a D/F dpp in the flex spot could be swapped with a forward or a defender depending on which E scored better, or swapped with a different rookie from the bench on those lines if neither E scores well. The best positions to use this for may change as teams get clearer, but could potentially give 3 bites at a 23rd score.

I'll be winging it in round 1 with no loops and a straight out C choice.

If there weren't any early byes then a FD would make sense, but there are early byes so they mitigate the need for a FD. I also think it's imperative to maximise the cash gen and I can't really afford to have a dead rookie so early, I'll probably end up with one soon enough though, whether that dead rookie is best for looping is an important consideration

I'm definitely looking at a bye player from each of those early byes on each line (mids, Def, Fwd) so far have 3 forward, 3 mids and 2 def, which gives me a look at 25 players in round 2 and 26 players in rounds 3 & 4. Helped a bit by DPP's, El-Hawli, Allan & Travaglia with Hewett and Kako.

This could all change though depending on rookie availability

 

[aj74]

One thing I’m finding tricky is that in most iterations, my midfield is entirely mid only players, and so is the player I currently have occupying the flex spot. Meaning I can’t actually loop any mid rookies without starting a donut on the mid line (thus dropping one of my preferred players) or changing one to a dpp player that can swing.
I think I’ll just wear round one knowing I’ll have options over the 2-4 bye rounds, but if a mid emergency goes bang it’ll be a frustrating situation!

One thing I was exploring is putting a dpp donut in the flex spot and using that to loop the best rookie from 2 lines. For example, a D/F dpp in the flex spot could be swapped with a forward or a defender depending on which E scored better, or swapped with a different rookie from the bench on those lines if neither E scores well. The best positions to use this for may change as teams get clearer, but could potentially give 3 bites at a 23rd score.

I never considered that use of flex. Quite clever.

You can always change that flex player over the weekend too so if that (e) doesn't go large, you can easily revert to a different flex strategy for the round.

There's definitely some points to be made around this new position

 

[wogitalia]

Roberts exploded in the last 7 games of the season ave 113. This however coincided when Jmac was out with injury. The watch is on the role in the pre season so see if the scenario from those 7 games is continued.

That's also the exact same period that Lloyd pushed up onto a wing. Worth noting that Lloyd stayed on that wing even after JMc returned in the finals, JMc was pretty underdone though so that could be a significant factor in that.

It's definitely something to watch in preseason and see how the roles line up. Personally I'd love if Lloyd and JMc are on the wings to free Gulden to play in the guts where he's far and away his most impactful and much harder to take out of games for the opposition.


I'm not sure Roberts can hit premium though as Blakey and Florent will eat a lot of the points, albeit that finish to the season from round 18 is very impressive. The round 0 bye definitely hurts but he's cheap enough to be worth picking despite it if he is going to average 110+ like he did for those 7 weeks. I'd think he's probably more likely to settle in a similar region to what Short has historically done in that high 90s region which is right on the borderline of pickable at his price. Without the bye he'd be much higher on my radar. He's a very good little player.

 

[aj74]

It's hard not to look at the mid-pricers though when so many under $ 400k look viable eg :-

Mills , Coleman , Doedee
Peatling
Flynn
Macrae , Smith , Parker , Philippou , Daniel

Then add in a few in the $ 400-500 k range eg :-

McKercher / Rivers / Short
Day / Durham / Oliver / Ashcroft / Cerra

If the rookie mids present I quite like the look of :-

D : 2-3-3
M: 2-1-8 (Rookie @ M4 🤔)
R: 2-0-1
F: 0-5-3

Flex : Flynn

10 mid-pricers/value , with the view that 7 turn out season long keepers

All depends on the strength of the mid rookies

Easy enough to swing a F DPP to the mids and field another F rookie onfield

Yeah the value is pretty tempting this year but remember there is a trap.

At the end of the year, you want to be running full premium or you will be losing ground in the overall and losing finals in your leagues.

The 10 MPs You mention with 7 having a view to being permanent is a concern. (Not having a go at you. I've got the same dilemma)

Fact is, it's majorly unlikely that you'll get 7 out of those 10 being best 6 or 8 in their line and that means they'll need upgrading. As a rule of thumb, it's 3 to upgrade a rookie to a premium and 2 to upgrade an MP.

In your example, if I read it right, you've started 6 premos, meaning you are at least 17 premos short of your desired end game. So immediately, that's a minimum of 2 * 17 = 34 trades up to 3 * 17 = 51 of your 40 trades.

As you mentioned, some of those MPs will be keepers so that drops those numbers a bit. However, you'll also note that we haven't yet earmarked any trades for corrections (4) and injuries (8).

So yep... heaps of value there but I reckon we could easily get trapped taking too much of a good thing

 

[aj74]

Training reports from Pieland have Perryman (414k DEF) training near exclusively with our mids. I vaguely recall something about him going ok in thebguts for the Giants but can't tell from looking at his footywire history

Priced at around 78 and was targeted to do inside mid where he will have a mortgage on the position. Titch remains injured having had plantar fasciitis all year last year and ongoing issues

Reef (200k FWD). McStay's fitness and the arrival of Membrey pushes Reef out of playing 2nd KPF, thank God. Fact is, he's a 194cm mid with explosive pace and questionable endurance at this stage. Is currently turning heads as a hybrid tall defender who can rebound - apparently quite well. Will surely get DPP if Fly decides to give him minutes.

I think both are worth a watch, though there are perhaps more obvious picks to be had at their price points this year.

 

[wogitalia]

One thing I’m finding tricky is that in most iterations, my midfield is entirely mid only players, and so is the player I currently have occupying the flex spot. Meaning I can’t actually loop any mid rookies without starting a donut on the mid line (thus dropping one of my preferred players) or changing one to a dpp player that can swing.
I think I’ll just wear round one knowing I’ll have options over the 2-4 bye rounds, but if a mid emergency goes bang it’ll be a frustrating situation!

One thing I was exploring is putting a dpp donut in the flex spot and using that to loop the best rookie from 2 lines. For example, a D/F dpp in the flex spot could be swapped with a forward or a defender depending on which E scored better, or swapped with a different rookie from the bench on those lines if neither E scores well. The best positions to use this for may change as teams get clearer, but could potentially give 3 bites at a 23rd score.

Also worth noting that the change to the DPP this year to not require trading to do it is a huge bonus with the flexibility. Being able to effectively switch a D/M, M/F and D/F however you like is very liberating. You don't really need to use the flex for this, although it probably removes one of the moving parts out of the equation. Would take some serious planning to find the right flex for this role.

There's very few D/F though right now, someone like Tauru or Paton may be the key on this. It's even worse because the main guys slated for DEF moves that are forwards in Daniel and Maric are already locked into the F/M DPP. Maybe Curtin at Adelaide could be a contender depending how they want to use him.

I'll be winging it in round 1 with no loops and a straight out C choice.

If there weren't any early byes then a FD would make sense, but there are early byes so they mitigate the need for a FD. I also think it's imperative to maximise the cash gen and I can't really afford to have a dead rookie so early, I'll probably end up with one soon enough though, whether that dead rookie is best for looping is an important consideration

I'm definitely looking at a bye player from each of those early byes on each line (mids, Def, Fwd) so far have 3 forward, 3 mids and 2 def, which gives me a look at 25 players in round 2 and 26 players in rounds 3 & 4. Helped a bit by DPP's, El-Hawli, Allan & Travaglia with Hewett and Kako.

This could all change though depending on rookie availability

Will come down to rookies but I'm not sure many will have a lot of players missing in those early byes. Only guys I'm really seeing that look likely to be there round 1 are Smith and Mills and a few will probably gamble on a premium or two, maybe a couple of other guys emerge as well but given it's mostly top sides that had little change I'm not sure if there will be a lot of names that pop up from them.

I'm not a fan of the loop in general in early rounds, largely because I'm awful at it, because of the lost cash generation. With essentially unlimited trades these days, the cash generation is the most important part, almost everyone is going to have 24+ premiums at the end of the season, so it comes down to the quality of those premiums and a few hundred k can make a huge difference there.

 

[aj74]

....

I'm not a fan of the loop in general in early rounds, largely because I'm awful at it, because of the lost cash generation. With essentially unlimited trades these days, the cash generation is the most important part, almost everyone is going to have 24+ premiums at the end of the season, so it comes down to the quality of those premiums and a few hundred k can make a huge difference there.

Same and for the same reasons. $14 million is the benchmark

It's why I've decided I'm not 100% in agreement with what you said earlier though about Flynn and Boyd having to be starting 23 if picked as first rucks

Boyd in particular can happily sit on the bench earning his 80s and above if that's his capability. Yes, I'd love to have him on field instead of the D6 rookie spitting out 50, but 1) not at the cost of my structure and 2) a sub 100k putting out 80s is manna from heaven, even if it is only for cash gen.

 

[OnTopBar]

Also worth noting that the change to the DPP this year to not require trading to do it is a huge bonus with the flexibility. Being able to effectively switch a D/M, M/F and D/F however you like is very liberating. You don't really need to use the flex for this, although it probably removes one of the moving parts out of the equation. Would take some serious planning to find the right flex for this role.

There's very few D/F though right now, someone like Tauru or Paton may be the key on this. It's even worse because the main guys slated for DEF moves that are forwards in Daniel and Maric are already locked into the F/M DPP. Maybe Curtin at Adelaide could be a contender depending how they want to use him.



Will come down to rookies but I'm not sure many will have a lot of players missing in those early byes. Only guys I'm really seeing that look likely to be there round 1 are Smith and Mills and a few will probably gamble on a premium or two, maybe a couple of other guys emerge as well but given it's mostly top sides that had little change I'm not sure if there will be a lot of names that pop up from them.

I'm not a fan of the loop in general in early rounds, largely because I'm awful at it, because of the lost cash generation. With essentially unlimited trades these days, the cash generation is the most important part, almost everyone is going to have 24+ premiums at the end of the season, so it comes down to the quality of those premiums and a few hundred k can make a huge difference there.

Mainly rookies for me in those early byes, E-Hawli, Reid, Stone, Sheldrick? Kako, Allan along with Green, Mills, Smith, Roberts and possibly Rioli.