Discussion 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN

[MC's Mix]

Got a question for the masses ...

- have $129,600 to spend on a defender most likely to play

- already have Hawli, Smith, Allen etc ...
- Reid I could take but still have scorch marks over him from last season ....
- currently have Busslinger but open to suggestions ...

Happy with the rest of my team ... won't post it because it is very unique for now and my "structure" would probably be laughed at ...

I had Riley Bice as a placeholder based on a few comments I'd seen, but we all know about Sydney def rookies!

Its good to be Unique, dont worry about that. Would welcome some input. I have run out of coin. $143 in the bank.
Where do I go from here?

View attachment 83291

I'm not a huge fan of Sicily this year, there's lots of talk of him moving forward on a more permanent basis, which I think kills his scores.
He's one I'd play around with to open up some options.
Bailey Dale for a few dollars cheaper could be the go, otherwise save 100k by grabbing someone like Roberts or Short.

EDIT:
Oh oops! Didn't realise your team wasn't complete!
Ashcroft, Reid, Dempsey and Callaghan seems a bit much for M4-M7, might have to drop 1 or 2 to a rookie and use the cash to fill your bench?
Sam Darcy doesn't inspire me all that much just yet either.
There are seemingly 6+ mid rookies that could score quite well this year and play rd1 from all reports. I'd leave some space for them!

 

[Russty_]

Its good to be Unique, dont worry about that. Would welcome some input. I have run out of coin. $143 in the bank.
Where do I go from here?

View attachment 83291

You could take Sicily out and put Mills in, Serong out for Oliver, Dempsey out for someone like Cumming or a highly touted rookie, Darcy out for B.Smith or Phillipou, Callaghan out until he proves he can score better.
Just some suggestions to free up some money.
Why is Nick Daicos on the bench btw?

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Got a question for the masses ...

- have $129,600 to spend on a defender most likely to play

- already have Hawli, Smith, Allen etc ...
- Reid I could take but still have scorch marks over him from last season ....
- currently have Busslinger but open to suggestions ...

Happy with the rest of my team ... won't post it because it is very unique for now and my "structure" would probably be laughed at ...

It’s all speculation this far out and chances are that we only end up with half or less of the current rookie priced players in our teams, however I think that if Reid is named round 1 he will be hard to go past. Yes, he burnt many of us last season but the JS appears to be rock solid. Just needs to stay fit.

 

[Baglimit]

I had Riley Bice as a placeholder based on a few comments I'd seen, but we all know about Sydney def rookies!






I'm not a huge fan of Sicily this year, there's lots of talk of him moving forward on a more permanent basis, which I think kills his scores.
He's one I'd play around with to open up some options.
Bailey Dale for a few dollars cheaper could be the go, otherwise save 100k by grabbing someone like Roberts or Short.

I am hopeful, most games played in Hawks fwd half, thats where I want Sicily, if thats the improvement most peeps thinking likely.

 

[MC's Mix]

I had Riley Bice as a placeholder based on a few comments I'd seen, but we all know about Sydney def rookies!






I'm not a huge fan of Sicily this year, there's lots of talk of him moving forward on a more permanent basis, which I think kills his scores.
He's one I'd play around with to open up some options.
Bailey Dale for a few dollars cheaper could be the go, otherwise save 100k by grabbing someone like Roberts or Short.

EDIT:
Oh oops! Didn't realise your team wasn't complete!
Ashcroft, Reid, Dempsey and Callaghan seems a bit much for M4-M7, might have to drop 1 or 2 to a rookie and use the cash to fill your bench?
Sam Darcy doesn't inspire me all that much just yet either.
There are seemingly 6+ mid rookies that could score quite well this year and play rd1 from all reports. I'd leave some space for them!

I am hopeful, most games played in Hawks fwd half, thats where I want Sicily, if thats the improvement most peeps thinking likely.

Last season in the 5 H&A games that I could see from DFS where he spent time/heat map showed he was forward he averaged 10% less than his season average (90 compared to 99)
I can't see him averaging 100+ as a forward, but I could be wrong.

 

[Darkie]

Its good to be Unique, dont worry about that. Would welcome some input. I have run out of coin. $143 in the bank.
Where do I go from here?

View attachment 83291

Dempsey jumps out as one who I think is quite unlikely to be a premium, so I’d look at taking him down to a rookie.

Then if you drop one of your three defenders down to a Mills type, you should have a lot more cash.

 

[Juzzo]

Its good to be Unique, dont worry about that. Would welcome some input. I have run out of coin. $143 in the bank.
Where do I go from here?

View attachment 83291

Have you heard anything about Callaghan? Training with mids?

 

[donnybuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1883330907127578799

Ramdon 1%ers doubled for Bont

SC scoring conspiracy theroists unite!

 

[Toothless Tigers]

Discussion - 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN | Page 58 | SuperCoach Scores

 

[Toothless Tigers]

Discussion - 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN | Page 58 | SuperCoach Scores

 

[Toothless Tigers]

Discussion - 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN | Page 58 | SuperCoach Scores

 

[Herbie66]

Hey @Eagling - nice bit of analytical work there and good to see you leading the mid-pricer/value charge for season 2025.
It seems like we go thru this Guns V MPM every year & I imagine it will continue on forever.

I have generally gone for the mid-pricers but havent had any success, but I'm stubbornly going there again.
The starting squad is a unique point in the season.
Players from 2024 are basically priced at a parity value - using their 2024 average and the magic number.
Untried rookies are priced from a nominal average of about 36 ppg down to 22 ppg

So if all players play to their starting prices all coaches will all score the same..
But of course that nominal scoring wont happen!
I have a notion of free points - the points a player scores in excess of what you pay for.
ie If I pick Max Holmes at his starting price of $533K, I am effectively paying for 99 points.
Should he score 109, I am getting 10 points for free.
In my simplistic view then, the coach who can pick the players that produce the most free points will win**. -

I have tried to model this concept of free points in a comparative way between a straw-man Guns & Rookies squad against a straw-man Mid-Pricer line-up.
In doing so, I have had to make quite a few assumptions, so hopefully they stand up to scrutiny from the SCS gang.
This first panel sets out my starting assumptions..
It shows the straw-man prices I have assigned to each of my 3 players categories - these prices are averages.
Then I have designed 2 starting squads
- blue for an extreme Guns & Rookies line-up
- green for an extreme Mid-Pricer line-up

View attachment 83273

This next panel is a bit superfluous, but it moves into the realm of SC points & shows how those 2 squads would score (using a Magic# of 5389)- if the 23 scoring players were counted - you can see they are equivalent.
View attachment 83275
So to model what will happen with 8 bench players who dont contribute to the weekly score..
For simplicity, I'll ignore captains scores and the best 22 of 23 rule.
The G&R team will have 10 on-field rookies, the MP team will have 5 on-field rookies.
To further simplify things, I'm assuming the MP team has picked the best 5 rookies to field - so both sqauds have the same 5 tier1 rookies, but the G&R team is fielding 5 tier2 rookies.
Since my overall objective is to measure the notion of free points they are integral to this step.
I'm assuming Guns are fairly priced in both squads - no free points.
I'm assuming tier1 rookies will score at 70 ppg (37.5 free points)
Then I'm going to make a leap and say that the MP coach has picked players who can outscore their nominal starting value.
In my model - the only way that the G&R coach can keep up, is if their Tier2 rookies produce the same quantity of free points.

This is what looks like if the 12 mid-pricers in the MP squad go at 10 ppg above par - blue highlighted cell.

View attachment 83277
The MP squad of 23 will score a total of 1901 pts on these assumptions.
I have shown the G&R squad with the same score - but this will only be achieved if the the Tier2 rookies can generate an average 24 free points - (salmon highlighted cell) - thats a scoring at about 56 ppg.

This is the modelling if the Mid-pricers reach 15 free points.
View attachment 83278

This is getting very tough for the G&R team (on my assumptions) as then the tier2's are going at 68 ppg - so they are effectively equivalent to tier1's.

So - all things being equal and if all my assumptions are reasonable, it comes down to which of the free-point scenarios you think is more achievable? This final summary table distils everything down.
View attachment 83279
The first column shows the range of free points that the MP team might achieve.
The middle column is the number of free points the tier2 rookies in the G&R squad would need to keep up.
The third column is the ppg that goes with the column 2 free pts.

I'd reckon, the the tier2 rookies would be able to get low 60's - so the mid-pricers would need to have around 12 points of value.. so you probably need to get it up to around 15 free points.

** obviously the analysis is just for the static nature of the start - all sorts of other possibilities arise when trades come into play.

I found this extremely fascinating to read , the only thing though is who would be starting 13 premiums @ $ 525k each ?

D : Blakey $ 525,200.00 and down
M: Newcombe/Rozee/McCluggage (all slightly above) and down
R: Sean Darcy (slightly above) and down
F: Moore & Rankine (slightly above) and down

Not convinced any of the D , M & R at that price would be in the Top 8-10 (5 for ruck) for their line though , Darcy if he stayed on the park the whole season could be

Certainly not trying to take anything away from you as you have obviously put a lot of time and effort into it , but that premium price seems to low.

Obviously the premium price for each line differs but would maybe $ 600k be a better indication (too high for the Forwards in any case ?

10 Guns @ $ 600,000k = $ 6 million
13 Rookies @ $ 200,000k (too high) = $ 2.6 million

Leaves $ 1.4 million (too much) for the Bench

I can't see many picking a pure GnR's to start in any case given if Oliver looks back to his best he looks like a auto pick (yes fallen gun) and the fact that those starting the Fab 4 (or 5) are doing so with the intention that they will be keepers on the Forward line , maybe Phillipou is the one with the biggest query if he can go 90+ for the season.

Similar to Mills , stays on the park potentially a Top 8-10 defender for the season.

Or maybe I have completely misunderstood what you are trying to do.

Like I said though , great work.

Extremely interesting to see and look at the tables

 

[freowho]

Ramdon 1%ers doubled for Bont

SC scoring conspiracy theroists unite!

Gives the Champion Data team a packet of Tim Tams before each game!!!

 

[Zim^zuM]

It's plantar fasciitis which can be difficult to judge return times with. You generally have it until you don't

I get semi regular flare ups for a few days at a time, probably due to my weight. The missus has had it for the better part of a year

I think I'll fade Nick this time anyway. He's fully priced and I'm trying to minimise those guys, keeping maybe 2 for captaincy. Foot concerns and the bye are big factors when you measure him against Bont, Butters and co

I had it in one foot for 8 months, the other 12+ months. And back to back 🤦 one cleared the other started. Had to resort to shock wave therapy and inserts for my shoes. Even after that it took its time.

I'm sure though they have better access to therapy and custom inserts.

 

[straightuptheguts]

Was just perusing Hybrid technology for my wife’s new car. Is this the year for a new approach to SuperCoach strategy akin to hybrid technology in cars? Should we be thinking about separate strategies for each position? For example, your mid strategy could be Guns and Rookies but your forward strategy might be Mid-price Madness.

 

[Herbie66]

I found this extremely fascinating to read , the only thing though is who would be starting 13 premiums @ $ 525k each ?

D : Blakey $ 525,200.00 and down
M: Newcombe/Rozee/McCluggage (all slightly above) and down
R: Sean Darcy (slightly above) and down
F: Moore & Rankine (slightly above) and down

Not convinced any of the D , M & R at that price would be in the Top 8-10 (5 for ruck) for their line though , Darcy if he stayed on the park the whole season could be

Certainly not trying to take anything away from you as you have obviously put a lot of time and effort into it , but that premium price seems to low.

Obviously the premium price for each line differs but would maybe $ 600k be a better indication (too high for the Forwards in any case ?

10 Guns @ $ 600,000k = $ 6 million
13 Rookies @ $ 200,000k (too high) = $ 2.6 million

Leaves $ 1.4 million (too much) for the Bench

I can't see many picking a pure GnR's to start in any case given if Oliver looks back to his best he looks like a auto pick (yes fallen gun) and the fact that those starting the Fab 4 (or 5) are doing so with the intention that they will be keepers on the Forward line , maybe Phillipou is the one with the biggest query if he can go 90+ for the season.

Similar to Mills , stays on the park potentially a Top 8-10 defender for the season.

Or maybe I have completely misunderstood what you are trying to do.

Like I said though , great work.

Extremely interesting to see and look at the tables

Mills
Oliver
Macrae , Smith , Parker , Phillipou , Daniel

leaves $ 7,483,300.00 for 24 players

16 rookies @ $ 200k (too much) = $ 3.2 million

then leaves $ 4,283,300.00 for the remaining 8 onfield players (guns) = $ 535,412.50 per player which is too low

Round 1 starting rookies will result in a price reshuffle and dictate the starting premiums

So is 8-7-16 the right balance ? who knows

24 trades to upgrade 8 onfield rookies

3 trades for corrections

??? trades for LTI's/suspensions

7 trades for the mid pricers/value if they all don't work out

 

[Crowls]

Unless he has a monster year, and I can't see that happening, I'm guessing he'll create a bidding war between the two SA clubs as I think he is in last year of a contract and will be a free agent. I hope they play Bryan full time to develop him as I for one am sick of Bomber fans gushing over Draper as I see his output revolving around a 6o second 'highlight package' every second week! Sometimes you just have to accept that you may have 'pulled the wrong chain' and move on...

Like you, I see Bryan as the ruck future for Essendon. Draper has been a disappointment. Be glad to see him move on....

 

[warewolves]

Hey @Eagling - nice bit of analytical work there and good to see you leading the mid-pricer/value charge for season 2025.
It seems like we go thru this Guns V MPM every year & I imagine it will continue on forever.

I have generally gone for the mid-pricers but havent had any success, but I'm stubbornly going there again.
The starting squad is a unique point in the season.
Players from 2024 are basically priced at a parity value - using their 2024 average and the magic number.
Untried rookies are priced from a nominal average of about 36 ppg down to 22 ppg

So if all players play to their starting prices all coaches will all score the same..
But of course that nominal scoring wont happen!
I have a notion of free points - the points a player scores in excess of what you pay for.
ie If I pick Max Holmes at his starting price of $533K, I am effectively paying for 99 points.
Should he score 109, I am getting 10 points for free.
In my simplistic view then, the coach who can pick the players that produce the most free points will win**. -

I have tried to model this concept of free points in a comparative way between a straw-man Guns & Rookies squad against a straw-man Mid-Pricer line-up.
In doing so, I have had to make quite a few assumptions, so hopefully they stand up to scrutiny from the SCS gang.
This first panel sets out my starting assumptions..
It shows the straw-man prices I have assigned to each of my 3 players categories - these prices are averages.
Then I have designed 2 starting squads
- blue for an extreme Guns & Rookies line-up
- green for an extreme Mid-Pricer line-up

View attachment 83273

This next panel is a bit superfluous, but it moves into the realm of SC points & shows how those 2 squads would score (using a Magic# of 5389)- if the 23 scoring players were counted - you can see they are equivalent.
View attachment 83275
So to model what will happen with 8 bench players who dont contribute to the weekly score..
For simplicity, I'll ignore captains scores and the best 22 of 23 rule.
The G&R team will have 10 on-field rookies, the MP team will have 5 on-field rookies.
To further simplify things, I'm assuming the MP team has picked the best 5 rookies to field - so both sqauds have the same 5 tier1 rookies, but the G&R team is fielding 5 tier2 rookies.
Since my overall objective is to measure the notion of free points they are integral to this step.
I'm assuming Guns are fairly priced in both squads - no free points.
I'm assuming tier1 rookies will score at 70 ppg (37.5 free points)
Then I'm going to make a leap and say that the MP coach has picked players who can outscore their nominal starting value.
In my model - the only way that the G&R coach can keep up, is if their Tier2 rookies produce the same quantity of free points.

This is what looks like if the 12 mid-pricers in the MP squad go at 10 ppg above par - blue highlighted cell.

View attachment 83277
The MP squad of 23 will score a total of 1901 pts on these assumptions.
I have shown the G&R squad with the same score - but this will only be achieved if the the Tier2 rookies can generate an average 24 free points - (salmon highlighted cell) - thats a scoring at about 56 ppg.

This is the modelling if the Mid-pricers reach 15 free points.
View attachment 83278

This is getting very tough for the G&R team (on my assumptions) as then the tier2's are going at 68 ppg - so they are effectively equivalent to tier1's.

So - all things being equal and if all my assumptions are reasonable, it comes down to which of the free-point scenarios you think is more achievable? This final summary table distils everything down.
View attachment 83279
The first column shows the range of free points that the MP team might achieve.
The middle column is the number of free points the tier2 rookies in the G&R squad would need to keep up.
The third column is the ppg that goes with the column 2 free pts.

I'd reckon, the the tier2 rookies would be able to get low 60's - so the mid-pricers would need to have around 12 points of value.. so you probably need to get it up to around 15 free points.

** obviously the analysis is just for the static nature of the start - all sorts of other possibilities arise when trades come into play.

Thanks for your feedback @Herbie66

I have re-jigged the started assumptions in line with your suggestions to these settings..


In this scenario, the G&R team are also allocated the same free pts for the 2 mid-pricers that are now in their squad.
Without going thru the whole thing this shows the final table (right side) compared to the table in my earlier post (left side)

As expected the target for the Tier2 rookies in the G&R team is less..
Looks like it shifts the dial by about 5 ppg & the mid-pricers need to be under-valued by about 17 poinys before they would hold the edge.

 

[Herbie66]

Tha

Thanks for your feedback @Herbie66

I have re-jigged the started assumptions in line with your suggestions to these settings..
View attachment 83323

In this scenario, the G&R team are also allocated the same free pts for the 2 mid-pricers that are now in their squad.
Without going thru the whole thing this shows the final table (right side) compared to the table in my earlier post (left side)
View attachment 83326
As expected the target for the Tier2 rookies in the G&R team is less..
Looks like it shifts the dial by about 5 ppg & the mid-pricers need to be under-valued by about 17 poinys before they would hold the edge.

I guess we won't know until the end of the season what was the "best" way to start.

Until Round 1 rookies are known we are all just speculating on starting teams in any case.

I might have my blinkers on but I think (am hoping) that the mid price/value picks I start will work , just need to be aware of they are not working to be able to jump off and hope their are not other issues to fix at that time.

As for the rookies until we see them play they are all pretty much just names and prices at this stage.

Just need to start the right ones and hope they generate enough money to let the preferred upgrades happen and the downgrade options appear at the right time.

 

[telephone]

Hey guys, kinda new to this. Just tried making my first team, let me know your thoughts. Thanks