Discussion 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN

[Chumpion]

I really only started looking at SC this weekend, and at first I started with Flanders, but the more I've thought about this, that early bye is a killer, especially for a premium. Losing those points at this time of the season is just too much of a risk. There are other premiums who can be on a par with him, or at least within 10 points.

At this stage, I am thinking that Flanders will be an upgrade target, as I also don't think he will be able to maintain that price.

For me I think it comes down to how many you are starting with the same bye. Being best 18 and with the introduction of the flex position, and being so early in the season that we should have the majority of our 31 players (byes excluded) playing means I think it's more manageable than people realise.

If you field 23, plus have a loop on 3 lines, you have 26 scores to get 18. Even allowing for the wrong players to be benched to take a good E score, you should be more than fine as by doing so that E score likely goes into your best 18, meaning you have more changes to drop poor scores.

I actually think a bye in round 2 is optimal as we should have the best starting 31 between those we picked who were named in round 1, and any correction trades. The idea that you lose X points because you are fielding a rookie over a premium isn't exactly accurate, because you have so many chances to make your 18th score better vs someone who has an extra premium on field but potentially different rookies or premiums.

In a vacuum, premium over rookie will likely score more points, but I don't think the difference is season defining. If you had 2-3 in that round 2 bye it might be different, but if it's just Flanders then I think it's easily absorbable.

 

[Old Big 'Ead]

For me I think it comes down to how many you are starting with the same bye. Being best 18 and with the introduction of the flex position, and being so early in the season that we should have the majority of our 31 players (byes excluded) playing means I think it's more manageable than people realise.

If you field 23, plus have a loop on 3 lines, you have 26 scores to get 18. Even allowing for the wrong players to be benched to take a good E score, you should be more than fine as by doing so that E score likely goes into your best 18, meaning you have more changes to drop poor scores.

I actually think a bye in round 2 is optimal as we should have the best starting 31 between those we picked who were named in round 1, and any correction trades. The idea that you lose X points because you are fielding a rookie over a premium isn't exactly accurate, because you have so many chances to make your 18th score better vs someone who has an extra premium on field but potentially different rookies or premiums.

In a vacuum, premium over rookie will likely score more points, but I don't think the difference is season defining. If you had 2-3 in that round 2 bye it might be different, but if it's just Flanders then I think it's easily absorbable.

I understand the point re best 18, and the fact that it isn't season defining. Think you make a great point re emergencies though. Critical that you can't have 2 missing from a line at these byes, so you can play the loophole.

However, I look at the fact that we're losing a player for 2 games during the season. It's hard enough to deal with Rd 12 and 16, let alone another bye as well. We have to remember that Flanders price will not have changed at his bye, so I guess for me, it might come down to how well he performs in Rd 0.

 

[Chumpion]

Yeah I think round 0 performance will be the main data point, but if he comes out with a 120 score and/or the role looks elite, I think he's worth starting. I don't think the impact in R2 will be huge given full squads, loopholes, best 18, etc.
The 2 games lost is only an issue if you can't effectively navigate them - round 2 looks easy, and it's not like there are 4-6 teams on the bye sucking the depth out of our teams.
It's easy for me as I'm not currently looking at anyone else from GC or GWS, so I don't think 1 missing will make a meaningful difference to that round.
Also worth calling out that if Flanders outscores the other premium selected by 10 points per round, they will probably be equal on points by round 5-6, and from then on you have potentially a top 2-3 defender that everyone else is needing to scramble to get in (or pay up a premium).
Could do the other way with a poor score, drop in price, etc, so comes down to how much you believe in him and his role.

 

[OnTopBar]

I understand the point re best 18, and the fact that it isn't season defining. Think you make a great point re emergencies though. Critical that you can't have 2 missing from a line at these byes, so you can play the loophole.

However, I look at the fact that we're losing a player for 2 games during the season. It's hard enough to deal with Rd 12 and 16, let alone another bye as well. We have to remember that Flanders price will not have changed at his bye, so I guess for me, it might come down to how well he performs in Rd 0.

There's a few things to consider here, firstly is the fact that none of us will have the funds for a $600k upgrade before round 6, yes, there might be an opportunity for correction trades, but there's risk associated with that, jumping off Young after a poor start last year was an example and burning trades with false corrections can ruin a season, particularly at the back end.

Secondly, come rounds 6-7 you'll have to prioritise who you want, If you don't start all of Sheezel, Flanders. Daicos, Xerri and Gawn and they perform or even drop a little then that decision becomes difficult and can put you behind those teams that started a few of them, ie: Their choice and focus is narrowed.

Factor in GC's soft start to the season where they face WCE in round 1, then the Dees, Crows, North and the Tigers in the next 4 rounds. That fixture could well see Flander's being out of reach, by either maintaining his price or exceeding it.

 

[jel]

Starting to look at the upcoming AFL season, and noticed we have 8 bye rounds (+1 for Rd0).
So 1/3rd of the rounds will be best 18 scoring.

 

[warewolves]

https://www.saints.com.au/news/1709852/injury-update well there goes phillipou

Saints fans - very disappointing for you to lose Phillipou for a big chunk of the season.
I guess it means they have to bring someone else into the midfield mix.
Do you see any chance that they would opt for Mitch Owens?
I really like him, think he has star potential.
He is just a bit slight for the KPF roles he's been filling - but he has a great physique for a modern mid.

 

[Under The Dome]

Carroll and another forward option in Garcia could get the rotations.
Max Hall wouldn't be far away either.

 

[FlatTrackBully]

Isn't it Levi Ashcroft that has been in the rehab group (shoulder issue) ?

Or have I completely missed something regarding Will ?

Both Ashcrofts were in the rehab group.

 

[Herbie66]

Both Ashcrofts were in the rehab group.

What was the issue with Will ?

Completely missed that one

 

[Herbie66]

Just curious how much they would need to average ,(roughly) to make a $ 150k + profit

Understand it changes depending on what they score each game etc etc

de Koning , S $ 361,9 k
Mills $ 357,2 k
Roberts , A $ 338,4 k
Coleman $ 269,1 k
Doedee $ 256,8 k

Peatling $ 352,8 k
Cumming $ 287,7 k
Guthrie , C $ 278 k
Sheed $ 238,4 k
Maric $ 223,8 k

Flynn $ 261,9 k

Cheers

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Both Ashcrofts were in the rehab group.

Source please.

It’s widely noted that Levi is in the rehab group but would appreciate the source which states that Will is in the rehab group.

 

[FlatTrackBully]

What was the issue with Will ?

Completely missed that one

Source please.

It’s widely noted that Levi is in the rehab group but would appreciate the source which states that Will is in the rehab group.

Post 480 on BigFooty from the 15th of Jan https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2025-pre-season-thread.1389628/page-20

• Rehab group - Linc, Kiddy, Starc, Neale, Hipwood, Oscar, Rayner, W.Ash, Henry Smith. Didn't see Doedee. Levi on limited training.

Not exactly a source as such but training spectators rarely miss a thing. No idea as to the reason why but I've read load management.

As this was over a good fortnight I'll see if I can find something that states he is back in full training or out of the rehab group.

 

[Rumbler]

Hi everyone, trust you've all been well. New year new hope! Starting my "research" earlier this year hoping to improve on the disaster of last season! Have come up with a first draft below (got 57k cash leftover). Appreciate any feedback/suggestions. Thanks!

 

[Eagling]

Hi everyone, trust you've all been well. New year new hope! Starting my "research" earlier this year hoping to improve on the disaster of last season! Have come up with a first draft below (got 57k cash leftover). Appreciate any feedback/suggestions. Thanks!

View attachment 83394

I'd invest a little deeper in defence; probably Cripps to D premium and I personally wouldn't bother starting a designated doughnut. Also, Daicos is dealing with plantar fasciitis so that might change your thoughts on him.

 

[FlatTrackBully]

Post 480 on BigFooty from the 15th of Jan https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2025-pre-season-thread.1389628/page-20

• Rehab group - Linc, Kiddy, Starc, Neale, Hipwood, Oscar, Rayner, W.Ash, Henry Smith. Didn't see Doedee. Levi on limited training.

Not exactly a source as such but training spectators rarely miss a thing. No idea as to the reason why but I've read load management.

As this was over a good fortnight I'll see if I can find something that states he is back in full training or out of the rehab group.

To follow on from this, more training from the 20th.

A lot of the guys in rehab last week trained almost fully today.

No training - Doedee, kiddy, smith
Laps/skills - Mcclugage, Rayner, Starc, Gardiner, hipwood - Levi a little more but still very limited.
Almost full training - linc, Neale, Ashcroft, brain

 

[Manikato1]

Just curious how much they would need to average ,(roughly) to make a $ 150k + profit

Understand it changes depending on what they score each game etc etc

de Koning , S $ 361,9 k
Mills $ 357,2 k
Roberts , A $ 338,4 k
Coleman $ 269,1 k
Doedee $ 256,8 k

Peatling $ 352,8 k
Cumming $ 287,7 k
Guthrie , C $ 278 k
Sheed $ 238,4 k
Maric $ 223,8 k

Flynn $ 261,9 k

Cheers

You can use TS to do this Herbie. Eg De Koning. Find someone in 2024 who started around 361k and you can track their price rises. In this case Waterman. Not perfect but it gives you a rough guide. Also remember MN is probably slightly different this year.

 

[Herbie66]

You can use TS to do this Herbie. Eg De Koning. Find someone in 2024 who started around 361k and you can track their price rises. In this case Waterman. Not perfect but it gives you a rough guide. Also remember MN is probably slightly different this year.

View attachment 83395

Completely forgot about TS and their calculator

Hopefully they update it soon to have a play around

 

[aj74]

Thing is, I've always been too afraid to actually go through with my first thoughts, to my detriment.

For instance, last season I:

Had Serong as one my first picked in pre-season, only to not pick him and watch him go 130 for the first 10 weeks, whilst I started Jordan Dawson.

Switched Nic Martin and Xerri to English.

Thought about trading Luke Jackson out at $600k and then baulked.

I do totally agree that from an overall perspective, there's a lot of risk that seems apparent, but I've been in a situation where I've tried to play it safe only to miss the 50/50 on which premium mid comes out with a 140 average and the other that goes 95. The other issue is that so many decent players have either scoring or role concerns or bye worries. I will agree that I probably only have 1 or 2 of the top line players on any line, but I think that plan maximises the chance of me picking off those uber-elite premiums when they fall in price.

Looking at my current list profile:

Fallen Premiums: Sicily, Oliver, Mills

Needs a bit of a boost to be in the top 6/8 of their line: NWM, Clark, JHF, Rankine

Breakout Candidates: McKercher, Richards, Young, Darcy, TDK

Just there for the ride: Peatling, Flynn

We're all in the same boat: Macrae, Smith, Phillipou, Daniel

Paradoxically, I think a lineup like this minimizes risk, if I want to finish with a solid ranking, buying low is absolutely paramount. I won't have to try to decide whether to hold onto an expensive investment or not, and with discipline I can ignore those $650k hot-streak players like Luke Ryan and Matt Rowell last year. Granted, I'll cop it if someone goes off in the early stage of the season and I don't have them, but statistically speaking, the likelyhood of a player above $600k outperforming their value is slim, unless it's a specific player for a specific reason.

For a bit of experimentation, I've put a list of every player over the past 4 years who were in the top 10 SC scorers by average for that year. A total of 27 players.

View attachment 83243

Additionally, here are how the top 10 scorers by average in a particular season compared with their previous and subsequent seasons:
View attachment 83242
View attachment 83244
View attachment 83245
View attachment 83246
Whilst not a complete list, as a player might have not been in the top 10 for any season yet hit an average of 114.9, here's another bit of analysis:

View attachment 83247

Going by these statistics:

Tier 1:
Bontempelli is a 100% chance to drop in average.

Tier 2:

Gawn and Butters have a 83.3% chance to drop in average.

Tier 3:

Xerri, Neale, Flanders, Sheezel, Daicos, Heeney, Ryan, Treloar, Serong and Merrett have a 81.25% chance to drop in average.

Tier 4:

Marshall, Dunkley, Whitfield, Cripps, Zorko, McGovern and Nankervis have a 63.63% chance to increase in average.

The issue is that these tier 4 players all have massive question marks; but this is where in most seasons you'd be looking for that safe upside potential.

If we go to Tier 5 you're looking at Sinclair and Brayshaw types. Some might consider English, LDU, Green, Houston or even Nic Martin, but most of these players are competing with Tier 3 players because of the massive question marks on the 110-114.9 averaging players, and when you're speculating on a breakout the difference between a Tier 5 player and speculating on a Tier 6 or 7 becomes far less certain, especially in the defence and forward line.

So for me, are those Tier 3 players worth investing in?

Of the 10: 5 have the early bye, so you have to think they need to outperform their average by about 2.5ppg to be worth picking. Before the pre-season news about his PF I might have though Daicos could do it. Of the rest, maybe Xerri and Sheezel are the best bets to maintain their average, but Xerri shares the same bye and line as TDK with massive upside potential. Sheezel seems a very solid pick but the fact is that North's most stacked area is probably their midfield. Granted, he is probably their best player but also most likely option out of him/LDU/Wardlaw to push forward of the ball. Flanders is a wait and see because of both role and the bye. I'm gambling that Clark and Young straight out out-average Ryan and Serong. Post byes last season Ryan and Serong did outperform Clark and Young respectively, but very narrowly.

*wipes the tears from his eyes*

It's a thing of beauty, man

I think of all the words and hours I spent last season trying to explain what you put up there in just a few pretty graphs. Top work!

My strategy, at least with mids will be:

Take the top 8 players from last year, not counting Flanders as he is DEF
4 of those will fail
2 of the others will be good picks that you can get at a big discount later in the year
2 you can get now. They might not get away from you but they won't give you chances to buy at a discount and so will cost full trades to get

 

[Bermi]

I wish you all the best of fantasy luck in your endeavors this year.

I am quite behind in catching up with all the fantastic information in this thread, but I came across the following information and thought it would be worth sharing.

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Who’s likely to miss the start of the season? Your club-by-club injury guide
Who’s likely to miss the start of the season? Your club-by-club injury guide
"The Age" Story by Peter Ryan

On Monday, with less than six weeks before opening round, clubs either took the chance to take their mandated four-day break or conducted match simulation with trepidation.

It was at such a training session that St Kilda defender Dougal Howard dislocated his shoulder, in a potential blow to his hopes of cementing a spot in a back line without Josh Battle in 2025.

Howard was sent for scans and the club confirmed it was still determining the extent of the injury, sweating on whether he will be available to play alongside star defender Callum Wilkie in round one. The Saints will be without young utility Mattaes Phillipou for round one after he was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his right femur. The 20-year-old’s recovery is expected to take 10-12 weeks. Ruckman Rowan Marshall is also on light duties with a potential stress fracture of his pelvis with the Saints hopeful he will return early in the season.

Melbourne also trained at Casey Fields on Monday morning before the heat kicked in. Max Gawn (fractured larynx) and Christian Petracca (fractured rib) continued to put in solid sessions as they move closer to full-contact training.

Meanwhile, Geelong will once again need patience as promising ruckman Toby Conway continues a slow build to full fitness after experiencing back soreness while forward Shaun Mannagh is on a modified training program as he deals with a sore foot, but the Cats have no real concerns about his progress. The Western Bulldogs also confirmed ruckman Tim English has been sidelined with bruising to his abdominal area and scans revealed knee and ankle injuries to West Coast’s Elliot Yeo, leaving him unlikely to play round one.

They’re not the only teams with injury concerns. We take a look at state of each team ahead of the 2025 season.

Adelaide
The Crows are in reasonable shape as they attempt to make finals for the first time since 2017. Nick Murray’s abdominal injury forced him off the track last week, but he will be fine, while recruit Isaac Cumming has recovered from a pre-Christmas hamstring injury and took part in match simulation on Monday. Ruckman Kieran Strachan is not available for round one as he recovers from foot surgery in early December to repair a stress fracture.

Brisbane Lions
Rebounding defender Keidean Coleman is unlikely to be available for round zero as he builds towards a return from a knee reconstruction after rupturing his ACL in opening round last year. He is among a bunch of knee reconstruction returnees including recruit Tom Doedee, Lincoln McCarthy and Darcy Gardiner, while star midfielder Lachie Neale has been spending time in and out of rehab after battling plantar fasciitis last year. He avoided surgery but has been handled with care. Oscar McInerney is also recovering from the shoulder injury he suffered in last year’s preliminary final win.

Carlton
It has been a tough pre-season for the Blues. Nic Newman is potentially out for the season after rupturing his patella tendon and Alex Cincotta’s hip will sideline him for round one. Newman has not completely given up hope of playing again in 2025 as he sought advice on how to fast track recovery, but he is a long shot. Sam Walsh’s return from a hamstring injury is going well as he faces a career managing his body carefully, while Charlie Curnow has been making positive steps on the track after knee surgery before Christmas. Jack Silvagni has been in rehab following last year’s knee injury as he prepares to play down back.

Collingwood
Nick Daicos was battling a sore foot leading into Christmas so he has been on a modified program since returning from the break in the hope the plantar fasciitis subsides. It’s likely to be managed in the early part of the season. Jordan De Goey is close to full training as he recovers from a groin issue. Tom Mitchell faces a long road back from his foot injury, but the signs since Christmas have been more positive than when he was diagnosed with a bone stress reaction in his foot. Lachie Sullivan has been in the rehab group too, but is not far from rejoining full training.

Essendon
Alwyn Davey jnr unfortunately required minor knee surgery last week, which is likely to keep him out of calculations for the opening round against Gold Coast. The Bombers have otherwise been relatively healthy. A bout of off-season surgeries including hip surgery for Jye Caldwell, wrist surgery for Andy McGrath and a knee arthroscope for Kyle Langford meant they started pre-season on modified programs, but they are tracking well now.

Fremantle
Ruckman Sean Darcy was sent to Qatar last week as he battles to overcome a knee issue, while champion Nat Fyfe had minor knee surgery this month – the Dockers are hopeful it’s only a minor setback. Michael Walters had similar knee surgery over Christmas and is gradually building his training program. Little-known Docker Odin Jones underwent spinal surgery in November after fracturing a vertebra when he fell at a friend’s house, ruling him out for the season.

 

[Bermi]

Geelong
Star recruit Bailey Smith is training well after being pulled back for a short period pre-Christmas due to a minor hamstring issue. Premiership midfielder Cam Guthrie is making slow progress as he looks to overcome a frustrating foot injury in the hope of having a consistent run at it in 2025, but opening round looks unlikely. The Cats’ big man Conway just can’t get going – a minor back issue is his latest setback following on from navicular surgery midway through last year – while Mannagh’s foot caused the Cats to decrease his training load.

Gold Coast
Daniel Rioli is back on track after having an operation on his MCL in early December. The Suns are rapt with his progress as he prepares to make his debut for the club in 2025.

GWS
Stephen Coniglio (shoulder and face) and Josh Kelly (hip) had post-season surgeries, but the pair is slowly building back into full training with no concerns at this stage about availability for round one.

Hawthorn
Skipper James Sicily should be involved in match practice in the next fortnight after recovering from shoulder surgery. Defender Sam Frost is also likely to play a game then, too, as he has made good progress following the foot injury that forced him to miss the semi-final. Will Day is back in full training after shoulder surgery while Jack Ginnivan is back in match simulation after a slow build-up caused by a grumbling adductor. Mitch Lewis will take time as he recovers from a knee reconstruction and Hawks fans are nervously watching Calsher Dear’s progress from a bone stress reaction in his back after his brilliant performance in 2024.

Melbourne
The Demons have had the odd setback but nothing to threaten availability ahead of round one. Gawn is recovering well from a larynx issue and Petracca suffered a broken rib but has been running hard. Kysaiah Pickett returned to training after a leg infection sidelined him and the unlucky Tom Fullarton continues to rehab a hamstring injury. First-round draft pick Xavier Lindsay’s build-up is gradual as he was drafted while rehabilitating a posterior cruciate ligament injury, while intercept defender Jake Lever’s build-up from shoulder and knee operations has been steady.

North Melbourne
Callum Coleman-Jones is out until May with an Achilles injury but defender Aidan Corr should be back in full training following finger surgery in the first week of February. Caleb Daniel’s early January hamstring setback was only minor and he was involved in match simulation last week.

Port Adelaide
Todd Marshall’s season is done after he suffered an Achilles tendon injury while midfielder Willem Drew just had minor surgery on his foot to relieve pain from plantar fasciitis. He will be back in full training in a month.

Richmond
Key defender Josh Gibcus is one of the Tigers’ forgotten talents after an unlucky run with injuries restricted him to just two matches in the past two seasons, so they won’t rush him in his return. The Tigers will have several players returning from knee reconstructions in 2025. Judson Clarke is expected back around April while timelines are less certain on Mykelti Lefau – who also underwent a knee reconstruction in 2022 – and new draftee Taj Hotton, although both are tracking well.

St Kilda
Howard’s shoulder dislocation was a blow as the Saints wait for scans to determine the extent of the injury. Midfielder Paddy Dow spent the Christmas break in hospital with a nasty infection to his knee, which will delay his start to the season, while Hunter Clark has been eased back after missing training a fortnight ago with what the club said was soreness. Top 10 pick Alix Tauru has been on a modified program since the Saints selected him, knowing he needed to recover from a back injury. A stress fracture to his femur will keep Mattaes Phillipou sidelined for three months and ruckman Rowan Marshall is also on light duties with a potential stress fracture to his pelvis.

Sydney
Key forward Logan McDonald is in doubt for this year’s opening round as his progress from post-season surgery on his ankle has been slow. Club footy boss Leon Cameron said McDonald was focused on strengthening the ankle before joining in full training. Small forward Jesse Dattoli has a lumbar stress reaction in his back, which will sideline him for the next three months.

West Coast
Scans revealed Yeo had suffered a syndesmosis injury and damage to his MCL at training last week. Rhett Bazzo had foot surgery in January but should be available for round one, and while not injured, Liam Ryan remains under investigation after allegedly being involved in a fight at a music festival.

Western Bulldogs
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan is unlikely to play in round one as he deals with personal issues, the club allowing him a flexible training program. After an excellent season last year Adam Treloar has had an interrupted pre-season with a calf niggle keeping him out of match simulation last week alongside high-flying forward Aaron Naughton, who also sustained a calf injury before Christmas. English has an abdominal injury.