Discussion 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN
- Thread starter freowho
- Start date
Some early, rambling thoughts
Defenders
Flanders - Don't mind it, he probably ends up underowned, but role-change is the risk and not sure if I can pay 119pts for that.
Sheezel - Will be starting him. Try and follow a rule that says if someone can become the best player in the comp in the next 12 months they just need to be picked, and he's up there. Any position, any time, he gets it done. Think it's a 120+ season and comfy captain option week to week.
Sinclair - Not sure I fully get the popularity. I get he's reliable but it doesn't do a whole lot for me. Disposal can be iffy and SC/DT average only so-so. Any time someone needs 35 touches for a score, especially as a defender, I'd question paying big $ for. Not totally ruling him out, he probably goes 22/110 again but likely not for me.
Houston - 11% is skinny. Maybe not the best SC side but he's class and I can see him pushing to 110.
Martin - Also underowned at circa 3% now. Seagull and disposal will only get better. Can be god damn awful at times.
NWM - Solid. Can't fault it but probably won't go there.
Holmes - In my team. Running is so elite- that he digs himself out of a hole late in games. Still young and club obviously loves it in his hands. Think he goes a level up. He can be a 115+ guy.
Siciliy - Plenty of margin of safety at 98pts cost, you'd think he's a 105 guy regardless of role. Hawks look decent. If ownership gets low enough I'll look hard
Stewart - Is he done? Just doesn't look a like a natural mid. Square peg, round hole. Maybe Smith etc. pushes him back to the right role where he could be looked at.
Short - Don't mind it. Maybe.
McKercher - Pig. Not sure about role. Like him though.
Rivers - If Trac is behind schedule / not fit for rd 1 I think I'll find a way to get him in. Plenty of upside here.
Mills - All role. If he's a mid then you pick him, don't want to over complicate this. He was pretty horrible last year in the wrong role and could be massive trap if it's not right.
Mids
Bont - Hard for me at his price, might slide to 117-122. Still makes for okay pick with C consistency.
Butters - Yep. Just a preference thing.
Daicos - If not for bye (and foot?) he'd probably be a lock. Not sure now with plenty of other weapons. Probably wins Brownlow this year so might just need to find room.
Serong - Yes.
Dunkley - Always under-owned. Hurt by bye so probably upgrade target.
Brayshaw - Sure. Always watching with one eye due to disposal, proclivity to HB and the SC ratio. Hate those 112/98 DT/SC games. But he's ultra consistent, great bye and no attention. Probably goes 23/112-115
LDU - Might get ownership upside given so many burnt by him last year. Just needs to be fit in first month.
Gulden - Probably a no with the bye. But geez he can play.
Anderson - See Brayshaw.
Green - Like him. Underpriced, maybe under-owned and start hot.
Laird - I like this pick a lot. Still only 31. Goes okay in that bruise free HB role. Might give you 22/115
Touk - Forgotten man? Athlete that good surely bounces back, probably role dependent, got stuck HFF too much last year.
Dawson - Maybe. Too much mid competition? Has a Brownlow in him. You'd hate to miss it when it's his year
Rowell - Style probably just not suited enough. If he can get 25 touches regularly and do more than pick & shovel he'll average 130.
Young - Maybe. 3% is unders. Always love guys edging to premo, in their first year as Mid only. Always get ignored.
Richards - Eh, maybe.
Newcombe - Goes missing too much.
Rozee - Yeah I'm back for it. Surely a lock at his price
Taranto - Disposal probably caps him at 110, but he's durable and finds the pill
Day - Class in the making but might be a year too soon - at his price he needs to go 110+ and not sure he's that guy
Oliver - I think so. Give him a chance at this price. By no means a lock but doesn't need to show much at that price. Few do it better.
Cerra - Great kick inside 50, but think he's a bit of a cat. Not a 110 guy. Bit soft and bad hammies
Ashcroft - Leaning yes but can see him burning people. By no means a lock but will probably start.
Reid - Tempting. Just doesn't find enough ball. He probably goes 95 this year and 120 next.
Powell - Can't go there at this price - but a smokey. Such a big body. Running machine. He'll have a good year.
Peatling - Love this guy. Hate the price. So much has to go right. But he can play.
Rucks
Gawn - Couldn't talk anyone out of it but I won't be going anywhere near him priced at 124.
Xerri - Slightly more tempting. He was so mobile in that back half of the season. Unlikely for me.
Marshall - No. Role risk
English - Don't mind it. Darcy effect? Reckon he was banged up last year. There's upside to his price. Might give 22/115
Grundy - No one even looking at him. Might get some ownership leverage, if not for the dirt bye
TDK - Yep. Can see him pushing 115+ and being captain option, Pittonet notwithstanding.
Darcy - Go on, tempt me again big boy, I dare you. We know he's a 125 guy when fit. Not many have his ceiling. I am a glutton for punishment so I will probably be going down this path again.
Draper - Just stop it guys
Flynn - Hard to ignore if he starts. Flex?
Forwards
JHF - Close a lock. Gets upside on another year in the system and more CBAs. Drew missing start of the season - he could be hot hot hot first month and then be hard to get in before byes.
Moore - Not for me but don't hate it. Fully priced for what he does but keeps churning them out.
Rankine - Pass. Too much risk. Role, body, brain. Too many 50 scores for what he's priced at.
Daniels - Ditto Moore, surely some regression here.
Curnow - Pretty awful last year. Probably gives you 22/90-95 which in other years might be enough but probably not with the value around.
Baker - No thanks
Darcy - One year too soon.
Bolton - Just can't see him doing it consistently enough
Macrae - Lock
Smith - Boring, but you have to start him. His SC ratio can be ugly but at his price 90 is enough. Likely keeper. Every time he posts on Instagram, have to make sure the Mrs doesn't see. You could grate cheese with those abs. Gets him in alone.
Darcy Wilson - Hear me out... He looked pretty ace at times last year. With another 5kgs he could get bursts in the middle and be a 90+ guy. Rate him.
Parker - Too slow.
Sanders - Weapon. But too much Bevo risk. Next year.
Phillipou - Lock.
Daniel - Think it has to be done. Keen to see how the Roos split them up.
Maric - Preseason watch.
Defenders
Flanders - Don't mind it, he probably ends up underowned, but role-change is the risk and not sure if I can pay 119pts for that.
Sheezel - Will be starting him. Try and follow a rule that says if someone can become the best player in the comp in the next 12 months they just need to be picked, and he's up there. Any position, any time, he gets it done. Think it's a 120+ season and comfy captain option week to week.
Sinclair - Not sure I fully get the popularity. I get he's reliable but it doesn't do a whole lot for me. Disposal can be iffy and SC/DT average only so-so. Any time someone needs 35 touches for a score, especially as a defender, I'd question paying big $ for. Not totally ruling him out, he probably goes 22/110 again but likely not for me.
Houston - 11% is skinny. Maybe not the best SC side but he's class and I can see him pushing to 110.
Martin - Also underowned at circa 3% now. Seagull and disposal will only get better. Can be god damn awful at times.
NWM - Solid. Can't fault it but probably won't go there.
Holmes - In my team. Running is so elite- that he digs himself out of a hole late in games. Still young and club obviously loves it in his hands. Think he goes a level up. He can be a 115+ guy.
Siciliy - Plenty of margin of safety at 98pts cost, you'd think he's a 105 guy regardless of role. Hawks look decent. If ownership gets low enough I'll look hard
Stewart - Is he done? Just doesn't look a like a natural mid. Square peg, round hole. Maybe Smith etc. pushes him back to the right role where he could be looked at.
Short - Don't mind it. Maybe.
McKercher - Pig. Not sure about role. Like him though.
Rivers - If Trac is behind schedule / not fit for rd 1 I think I'll find a way to get him in. Plenty of upside here.
Mills - All role. If he's a mid then you pick him, don't want to over complicate this. He was pretty horrible last year in the wrong role and could be massive trap if it's not right.
Mids
Bont - Hard for me at his price, might slide to 117-122. Still makes for okay pick with C consistency.
Butters - Yep. Just a preference thing.
Daicos - If not for bye (and foot?) he'd probably be a lock. Not sure now with plenty of other weapons. Probably wins Brownlow this year so might just need to find room.
Serong - Yes.
Dunkley - Always under-owned. Hurt by bye so probably upgrade target.
Brayshaw - Sure. Always watching with one eye due to disposal, proclivity to HB and the SC ratio. Hate those 112/98 DT/SC games. But he's ultra consistent, great bye and no attention. Probably goes 23/112-115
LDU - Might get ownership upside given so many burnt by him last year. Just needs to be fit in first month.
Gulden - Probably a no with the bye. But geez he can play.
Anderson - See Brayshaw.
Green - Like him. Underpriced, maybe under-owned and start hot.
Laird - I like this pick a lot. Still only 31. Goes okay in that bruise free HB role. Might give you 22/115
Touk - Forgotten man? Athlete that good surely bounces back, probably role dependent, got stuck HFF too much last year.
Dawson - Maybe. Too much mid competition? Has a Brownlow in him. You'd hate to miss it when it's his year
Rowell - Style probably just not suited enough. If he can get 25 touches regularly and do more than pick & shovel he'll average 130.
Young - Maybe. 3% is unders. Always love guys edging to premo, in their first year as Mid only. Always get ignored.
Richards - Eh, maybe.
Newcombe - Goes missing too much.
Rozee - Yeah I'm back for it. Surely a lock at his price
Taranto - Disposal probably caps him at 110, but he's durable and finds the pill
Day - Class in the making but might be a year too soon - at his price he needs to go 110+ and not sure he's that guy
Oliver - I think so. Give him a chance at this price. By no means a lock but doesn't need to show much at that price. Few do it better.
Cerra - Great kick inside 50, but think he's a bit of a cat. Not a 110 guy. Bit soft and bad hammies
Ashcroft - Leaning yes but can see him burning people. By no means a lock but will probably start.
Reid - Tempting. Just doesn't find enough ball. He probably goes 95 this year and 120 next.
Powell - Can't go there at this price - but a smokey. Such a big body. Running machine. He'll have a good year.
Peatling - Love this guy. Hate the price. So much has to go right. But he can play.
Rucks
Gawn - Couldn't talk anyone out of it but I won't be going anywhere near him priced at 124.
Xerri - Slightly more tempting. He was so mobile in that back half of the season. Unlikely for me.
Marshall - No. Role risk
English - Don't mind it. Darcy effect? Reckon he was banged up last year. There's upside to his price. Might give 22/115
Grundy - No one even looking at him. Might get some ownership leverage, if not for the dirt bye
TDK - Yep. Can see him pushing 115+ and being captain option, Pittonet notwithstanding.
Darcy - Go on, tempt me again big boy, I dare you. We know he's a 125 guy when fit. Not many have his ceiling. I am a glutton for punishment so I will probably be going down this path again.
Draper - Just stop it guys
Flynn - Hard to ignore if he starts. Flex?
Forwards
JHF - Close a lock. Gets upside on another year in the system and more CBAs. Drew missing start of the season - he could be hot hot hot first month and then be hard to get in before byes.
Moore - Not for me but don't hate it. Fully priced for what he does but keeps churning them out.
Rankine - Pass. Too much risk. Role, body, brain. Too many 50 scores for what he's priced at.
Daniels - Ditto Moore, surely some regression here.
Curnow - Pretty awful last year. Probably gives you 22/90-95 which in other years might be enough but probably not with the value around.
Baker - No thanks
Darcy - One year too soon.
Bolton - Just can't see him doing it consistently enough
Macrae - Lock
Smith - Boring, but you have to start him. His SC ratio can be ugly but at his price 90 is enough. Likely keeper. Every time he posts on Instagram, have to make sure the Mrs doesn't see. You could grate cheese with those abs. Gets him in alone.
Darcy Wilson - Hear me out... He looked pretty ace at times last year. With another 5kgs he could get bursts in the middle and be a 90+ guy. Rate him.
Parker - Too slow.
Sanders - Weapon. But too much Bevo risk. Next year.
Phillipou - Lock.
Daniel - Think it has to be done. Keen to see how the Roos split them up.
Maric - Preseason watch.
Having thoughts around starting Flanders in my squad even with his terrible round 2 bye.
To have a chance to win Supercoach this year we will need Flanders in our teams at some stage, and 640k will be hard to find if we don't start him.
Thinking about starting Sinclair in the mids, so Flanders can hide on the mid bench during round two where we should have better cover there.
I'll possibly lose 40 - 60 points in round two but I will save a trade, and trades are gold in those last four rounds of the season.
Interested to hear everyone's thoughts on starting Flanders. Just floating the idea around.
BTW - Captain Flanders has West Coast in the first round.
To have a chance to win Supercoach this year we will need Flanders in our teams at some stage, and 640k will be hard to find if we don't start him.
Thinking about starting Sinclair in the mids, so Flanders can hide on the mid bench during round two where we should have better cover there.
I'll possibly lose 40 - 60 points in round two but I will save a trade, and trades are gold in those last four rounds of the season.
Interested to hear everyone's thoughts on starting Flanders. Just floating the idea around.
BTW - Captain Flanders has West Coast in the first round.
- Joined
- 14 Jan 2023
- Messages
- 232
- Likes
- 969
- AFL Club
- Carlton
I really like the look of this team.
Not starting Horne-Francis/Rankine definitely makes the rest of the team look stronger.
Regarding Flanders, he’s the one player I’m struggling to make a decision on! He’s currently not in my side but as you say, we’ll need to get him in sooner rather than later so maybe it’s worth paying up to start him!
His ownership is actually surprisingly high as well so leaving him out could be detrimental if he starts on fire, which is a real possibility considering his draw to start the year…
I’ve currently gone Sheezel, Sinclair, Short, Mills & Rookies…
My question is, assuming Short averages 100 this season (I genuinely believe he will) is that enough to warrant starting him because realistically, he’d need to average 105ish to be a top 10 defender…
Not starting Horne-Francis/Rankine definitely makes the rest of the team look stronger.
Regarding Flanders, he’s the one player I’m struggling to make a decision on! He’s currently not in my side but as you say, we’ll need to get him in sooner rather than later so maybe it’s worth paying up to start him!
His ownership is actually surprisingly high as well so leaving him out could be detrimental if he starts on fire, which is a real possibility considering his draw to start the year…
I’ve currently gone Sheezel, Sinclair, Short, Mills & Rookies…
My question is, assuming Short averages 100 this season (I genuinely believe he will) is that enough to warrant starting him because realistically, he’d need to average 105ish to be a top 10 defender…
I had Short in my first draft. No doubt he can improve on the 82 ave of last season. But when I dug deeper I wondered which metric he could improve on enough to get him around 105 ave. And that would still probably be only a D5 or D6.
I thought if he showed up in pre season games rebounding off HB and taking kick ins that would be the key. But even in 2021 when he ave 98, he took 50% of the Tigers kick ins, racked up 546 meters gained (2nd best of career) and had 81.2% disp efficiency (2nd career best) and still could not get past the ton. Of course there is a group of players that spike every year but I don't know how we can know this is the year of the Short.
I thought if he showed up in pre season games rebounding off HB and taking kick ins that would be the key. But even in 2021 when he ave 98, he took 50% of the Tigers kick ins, racked up 546 meters gained (2nd best of career) and had 81.2% disp efficiency (2nd career best) and still could not get past the ton. Of course there is a group of players that spike every year but I don't know how we can know this is the year of the Short.
- Joined
- 7 Sep 2020
- Messages
- 13,104
- Likes
- 45,974
Flanders has WCE but did not go big on them last year with 105 early and 91 in the return game. Those 40-60 points can be nullified if he does produce as your captain though and allows you to go late with your VC R1.
I don't like being forced into picking a third defender that I'd be uncomfortable starting or even drop structure down to 2.
I don't like being forced into picking a third defender that I'd be uncomfortable starting or even drop structure down to 2.
Last edited:
I might be wrong but I think that Short is a trap.
There's a number of players being trialed/training down back, Smith, Banks, Brown, Trezise, Ralphsmith just to name a few, even Smillie could spend some time there. I'd expect Vlastuin, Brown and possibly Miller/Banks to take the majority of kickins.
Short's defensive efforts have, well, come up short over the last couple of years. All comes down to the practice games, but I do note that the team is practicing a short kick from defence then opening up the field for transition plays rather than just bombing it long down the line, something that Short was doing. How that translates to scoring from a SC perspective is anyone's guess.
There's a number of players being trialed/training down back, Smith, Banks, Brown, Trezise, Ralphsmith just to name a few, even Smillie could spend some time there. I'd expect Vlastuin, Brown and possibly Miller/Banks to take the majority of kickins.
Short's defensive efforts have, well, come up short over the last couple of years. All comes down to the practice games, but I do note that the team is practicing a short kick from defence then opening up the field for transition plays rather than just bombing it long down the line, something that Short was doing. How that translates to scoring from a SC perspective is anyone's guess.
Regarding Flanders, he is one I am struggling with as a starting pick.
Half back is the easiest and best role in the game.
Typically when we see that a player is being trialed at half back, it immediately piques our interest in them. Some draftees can score at very high levels in the role from their first game. I think that says a fair bit.
Flanders is going the other way. He may still score reasonably well, but realistically his ceiling comes down.
To me he looks like a wait and see on role, and therefore an upgrade target.
Half back is the easiest and best role in the game.
Typically when we see that a player is being trialed at half back, it immediately piques our interest in them. Some draftees can score at very high levels in the role from their first game. I think that says a fair bit.
Flanders is going the other way. He may still score reasonably well, but realistically his ceiling comes down.
To me he looks like a wait and see on role, and therefore an upgrade target.
- Joined
- 18 Feb 2019
- Messages
- 1,372
- Likes
- 5,774
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Nice post. I don’t believe there are many full G&R and MP teams any more. Coaches now have a mix of both, have the top few guns for captain choices, the best rookies and the best value mid prices. I was definitely G&R in the old days with limited trades but now you need at least one mid price player on each line just for the flexibility to correct to the best one early if you didn’t jag the one first up.
Best scorer on each line, not set in stone but handy not chasing those in upgrade season, then the best rookies and fill in the rest with value some being mid pricers.
Best scorer on each line, not set in stone but handy not chasing those in upgrade season, then the best rookies and fill in the rest with value some being mid pricers.
Feel like Flanders is being well overthought with regards to position.
He scored the same as a mid as he did as a defender in a 10 game sample last year, it was a bit more boom/bust but the outcome was the same. He was also comparable to close 2023 playing the same role. So basically have a 15 game sample as a mid that's right around the price he should be.
His one and only issue is his bye. You're sacrificing ~60 points by taking him, so if you think he's got ~10-15 points upside then he's definitely worth taking, if you don't then you probably should be taking someone without the bye. I think the 10 points is possible but is definitely a big ask. IMO there's at least as much downside risk, if not more, than there is upside potential.
Of course this ignores that the other options down back look so thin that sacrificing the 60 might still be a better option than taking one of the half dozen guys that are options without the bye and having them not meet the level needed. He's probably the best bet to be top 5 though and he could start huge, definitely capable of big scores.
He scored the same as a mid as he did as a defender in a 10 game sample last year, it was a bit more boom/bust but the outcome was the same. He was also comparable to close 2023 playing the same role. So basically have a 15 game sample as a mid that's right around the price he should be.
His one and only issue is his bye. You're sacrificing ~60 points by taking him, so if you think he's got ~10-15 points upside then he's definitely worth taking, if you don't then you probably should be taking someone without the bye. I think the 10 points is possible but is definitely a big ask. IMO there's at least as much downside risk, if not more, than there is upside potential.
Of course this ignores that the other options down back look so thin that sacrificing the 60 might still be a better option than taking one of the half dozen guys that are options without the bye and having them not meet the level needed. He's probably the best bet to be top 5 though and he could start huge, definitely capable of big scores.
https://www.saints.com.au/news/1709852/injury-update well there goes phillipou
- Joined
- 2 Mar 2023
- Messages
- 2,229
- Likes
- 8,189
- AFL Club
- Essendon
I really only started looking at SC this weekend, and at first I started with Flanders, but the more I've thought about this, that early bye is a killer, especially for a premium. Losing those points at this time of the season is just too much of a risk. There are other premiums who can be on a par with him, or at least within 10 points.
At this stage, I am thinking that Flanders will be an upgrade target, as I also don't think he will be able to maintain that price.
At this stage, I am thinking that Flanders will be an upgrade target, as I also don't think he will be able to maintain that price.