People really overrate how good their rookies will be.
I know for a fact that I ignored the byes last season and it cost me at least 60 points in every bye that I had a player missing. Pretty sure the best score I had as the 18th was a 61 from memory with a couple of 50s and, luckily, a 40 something in one of the rounds that I didn't have to take that 19th score as I hadn't picked any premiums from that bye.
The simple fact is that you're playing your 19th best player while everyone else is fielding a premium in that spot. So it's ~110+ points against ~60. You could get incredibly lucky and have 7 odd rookies that you field all score 100+ but it's insanely unlikely and you should be planning on a 60 type score, for Flanders that's 60 points lost if he plays to his price.
The full rosters is actually a negative as it means the only guy you can loop is that missing premium, so at most 2 lines. Later on would actually be better where you're more likely to have a couple of dead rookies floating around.
There are reasons to pick him still. The obvious is that you think he's got 10 points of upside, he's Dane Swan like as a player so it's definitely possible that he does improve further, I don't think 130 is impossible for him. You might also think that none of the other options are better. The only other premium backs to pick from are Sheezel, Ryan, McGovern, Sinclair, Clark and NWM if I cut off at 100. I can make a case against all of them that has them being 10 points overpriced or unlikely to improve and, unfortunately, we really do have to pick a certain amount of backs still so it's not as simple as just spend that money elsewhere. You can also only realistically pick 2 of Clark, Ryan, Sinclair and NWM without basically just kicking the problem to their bye with interest given a lot of other players from those teams are relevant at other positions.
Personally, I like Stewart and Holmes more if going for a premium level defender with the bye as I think their 10+ improvement scenario is stronger than Flanders. Albeit Flanders does have a lot better premium certainty to me. Even then, I'd probably prefer as an early upgrade target post bye barring enormous r0 scores that are going to kill the value.
Mills is a different story given he's potentially 50 points underpriced on his best.
I know for a fact that I ignored the byes last season and it cost me at least 60 points in every bye that I had a player missing. Pretty sure the best score I had as the 18th was a 61 from memory with a couple of 50s and, luckily, a 40 something in one of the rounds that I didn't have to take that 19th score as I hadn't picked any premiums from that bye.
The simple fact is that you're playing your 19th best player while everyone else is fielding a premium in that spot. So it's ~110+ points against ~60. You could get incredibly lucky and have 7 odd rookies that you field all score 100+ but it's insanely unlikely and you should be planning on a 60 type score, for Flanders that's 60 points lost if he plays to his price.
The full rosters is actually a negative as it means the only guy you can loop is that missing premium, so at most 2 lines. Later on would actually be better where you're more likely to have a couple of dead rookies floating around.
There are reasons to pick him still. The obvious is that you think he's got 10 points of upside, he's Dane Swan like as a player so it's definitely possible that he does improve further, I don't think 130 is impossible for him. You might also think that none of the other options are better. The only other premium backs to pick from are Sheezel, Ryan, McGovern, Sinclair, Clark and NWM if I cut off at 100. I can make a case against all of them that has them being 10 points overpriced or unlikely to improve and, unfortunately, we really do have to pick a certain amount of backs still so it's not as simple as just spend that money elsewhere. You can also only realistically pick 2 of Clark, Ryan, Sinclair and NWM without basically just kicking the problem to their bye with interest given a lot of other players from those teams are relevant at other positions.
Personally, I like Stewart and Holmes more if going for a premium level defender with the bye as I think their 10+ improvement scenario is stronger than Flanders. Albeit Flanders does have a lot better premium certainty to me. Even then, I'd probably prefer as an early upgrade target post bye barring enormous r0 scores that are going to kill the value.
Mills is a different story given he's potentially 50 points underpriced on his best.
