Position 2025: RUCK DISCUSSION
- Thread starter KLo30
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Certainly considering this also, with Archer Reid at R3 120K Ruck/Fwd - finished the WAFL season very well last year & training well this preseason. Can play either end along with Oscar Allen. Harry Edwards who looked the most likely Barrass replacement at full back has foot issues & Bazzo injured again - real opening for someone to partner Gov as our 2nd tall defender.
I’d almost say this steers you towards a second premium ruck in the flex spot, as the risk is that both Boyd and Reid play Sunday so if there are any spanners late you can be in some strife.
If they work out then a premium ruck in flex is still fine, if either rookie doesn’t work out or your premium rucks don’t work, you can pivot either via a rookie or premium correction trade.
Similar to when Gibcus was injured in game 1 last year and a lot of coaches moved Daicos to the mids to open up options for the trade the following week. Good to have some
Contingency plans that don’t box you in!
If they work out then a premium ruck in flex is still fine, if either rookie doesn’t work out or your premium rucks don’t work, you can pivot either via a rookie or premium correction trade.
Similar to when Gibcus was injured in game 1 last year and a lot of coaches moved Daicos to the mids to open up options for the trade the following week. Good to have some
Contingency plans that don’t box you in!
Never rains but it pours. Clearly StK have employed some ex WCE physio staff and they have brought the bad juju with them
If the Boyd injury is a minor thing then his ruck stocks have soared with the Marshall injury news. Still not sure about an R2 but R3 all but locked in.
Rucks seem to have become moving targets. With the loss of Pou in the forward line I now have more cash and have thought about upgrading one of my current rucks (Cameron and TDK) to Gawn. Cannot have Xerri. I have no doubt he will be one of the top SC rucks for years to come but his performance last year feels like a spike to me. His tackle stats were insane being almost 23 points of his 119 ave. Only Rowbottom and Rowell scored more points from tackles. So I am looking at him to drop in ave but of course he will now probably bust a 130!
Marshall and English are not 100% and that leaves Nank, Witts and Grundy before you hit Cameron. Nank and Cameron are the only two higher rucks to consistently improve in the past 3 seasons. But somehow I cannot see myself picking Nank (not sure why) while Witts has probably hit his ceiling back in 2022 when he ave 110 behind Gawn on 113.
If the Boyd injury is a minor thing then his ruck stocks have soared with the Marshall injury news. Still not sure about an R2 but R3 all but locked in.
Rucks seem to have become moving targets. With the loss of Pou in the forward line I now have more cash and have thought about upgrading one of my current rucks (Cameron and TDK) to Gawn. Cannot have Xerri. I have no doubt he will be one of the top SC rucks for years to come but his performance last year feels like a spike to me. His tackle stats were insane being almost 23 points of his 119 ave. Only Rowbottom and Rowell scored more points from tackles. So I am looking at him to drop in ave but of course he will now probably bust a 130!
Marshall and English are not 100% and that leaves Nank, Witts and Grundy before you hit Cameron. Nank and Cameron are the only two higher rucks to consistently improve in the past 3 seasons. But somehow I cannot see myself picking Nank (not sure why) while Witts has probably hit his ceiling back in 2022 when he ave 110 behind Gawn on 113.
I'll pick one in the Flex personally. If both are undisputed 1st ruck for their sides then you need them on field but I really like the rucks more than most lines so would rather spend some cash there. Also adds a lot more security if something goes wrong. The R3 is a F/R to keep the flex spot open, ideally someone who is playing pops up. Becomes interesting if it's a Barnett type who is the best R3 choice without the DPP, at least to start the season.
No preseason issues is really narrowing things for me.
Gawn gets an exception because he's Gawn and proven but otherwise Marshall, English and Darcy have all been ruled out. So really down to Xerri and his awful bye, Gawn, Nank and, maybe TDK (although he might also be injured and also has an awful bye).
I think I'm just going to have to accept that the r12 bye is where my season ends and just have fun until then
No preseason issues is really narrowing things for me.
Gawn gets an exception because he's Gawn and proven but otherwise Marshall, English and Darcy have all been ruled out. So really down to Xerri and his awful bye, Gawn, Nank and, maybe TDK (although he might also be injured and also has an awful bye).
I think I'm just going to have to accept that the r12 bye is where my season ends and just have fun until then
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Witts doesn’t contribute enough around the ground in terms of disposals and marks to trouble the top rucks and thus little upside at his price range whereas Nank needs to take another mark here and there and have some scoreboard impact if he is to sustain 110-115+ for a full season. Both better suited to draft as they rarely come under consideration for me in classic.
Witts is solid but for mine the problem is his bye and his back. Missed and limited in several games last year, at that size and age, backs are the worst injury you can have. The amount of NBA centers who go down to chronic back injuries is pretty startling if you follow it. I'd also say that even in a perfect scenario I'm not sure he's got 120+ in him.
I also don't love that he's got probably the best backup in the league (well at least until Marshall is officially a #2) in Moyle who is very much ready for AFL football so can see them being pretty cautious if he has any niggles and possibly even playing alongside to help the development of Moyle who is their future.
Nank is one I keep coming back to. Bye is phenomenal. He took a while to work out the ruck rules last year but from round 10 onwards he averaged 116 but that includes a 58 where he was injured and then subbed off, without that he averaged 121 over his last 12 games. The ruck rule change absolutely suits him as a very earthbound and strong ruck, I think they'll have a lot of stoppages as basically their entire senior midfield are only really good at tackling. The one knock I can't get past though is that his durability record is genuinely awful. Missed 2 last year and subbed in the aforementioned 3rd, 8 the year before. 2022 he played all games but then it's 6, 15 and 13 missed. Basically he's had one healthy season and missed 9 games a season on average in the other 6 for his last 7 years. If he had a decent durability record I think I'd actually be picking him. In short, if he's fit I think he could push 120 and be a top 2 level ruck.
I also don't love that he's got probably the best backup in the league (well at least until Marshall is officially a #2) in Moyle who is very much ready for AFL football so can see them being pretty cautious if he has any niggles and possibly even playing alongside to help the development of Moyle who is their future.
Nank is one I keep coming back to. Bye is phenomenal. He took a while to work out the ruck rules last year but from round 10 onwards he averaged 116 but that includes a 58 where he was injured and then subbed off, without that he averaged 121 over his last 12 games. The ruck rule change absolutely suits him as a very earthbound and strong ruck, I think they'll have a lot of stoppages as basically their entire senior midfield are only really good at tackling. The one knock I can't get past though is that his durability record is genuinely awful. Missed 2 last year and subbed in the aforementioned 3rd, 8 the year before. 2022 he played all games but then it's 6, 15 and 13 missed. Basically he's had one healthy season and missed 9 games a season on average in the other 6 for his last 7 years. If he had a decent durability record I think I'd actually be picking him. In short, if he's fit I think he could push 120 and be a top 2 level ruck.
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I gather your “120” benchmark set for the above is in relation to the top two averages for the position from last season rather than anything else, as it seems to be a very unrealistic benchmark. Witts perfect scenario has already been and he couldn‘t even top 110. Lack of a ceiling due to not possessing the ideal SC ruck style (involvement around the ground, scoreboard impact, etc) with only 8/59 140+ in the past three seasons.
Is there a reason why the 150 or 159 are not being excluded along with the 58 for Nankervis? Just be careful that if extrapolating RD10 onwards that the expectation is that the scoring range in question will continue with more high ceilings and the floor set to 100 over the length of a full season. If the 58, 150 and 159 was replaced with an injury free 128, 124 and 115 would this change his prospects in any way for the upcoming season and “perceived” upside?
Is there a reason why the 150 or 159 are not being excluded along with the 58 for Nankervis? Just be careful that if extrapolating RD10 onwards that the expectation is that the scoring range in question will continue with more high ceilings and the floor set to 100 over the length of a full season. If the 58, 150 and 159 was replaced with an injury free 128, 124 and 115 would this change his prospects in any way for the upcoming season and “perceived” upside?
119.37 is the top 2 ruck average for the last 7 years, I round up but that's the ballpark target in a normal season and you're not competing without top 2 ruck scoring, especially now with a billion trades. If I don't think a premium priced player can average that level, they're not worth considering unless there's some monumental rule change that I think will change the scoring levels. Even better if I think they're 130+ potential because then I can miss by a lot more and still be ok. For example, I like Sweet as a player but similar to your complaints about Witts, I would say the same of Sweet, he just doesn't do enough of the extra SC things for me to think he's capable of anything more than the 105-110 region, he might add those traits yet, but for now I wouldn't pick him for that reason. Meek, Nank, Cameron, Darcy, Jackson (sole ruck), Briggs and TDK are all guys I can actually make the case for and believe it, not saying I would or that I don't believe the against case more, just that I can see the ceiling to plausibly be a top 2 level scorer. There are always exceptional seasons, take Gawn out and that top 2 average drops a long way just as an example but assuming he's there, the target for top 2 is 120, imo.
The only game I removed was the game where he was injured and then subbed off, every other game is just a full game sample and I also left in the average with that score in to be clear of its impact. You're not picking a premium if you expect them to be subbed off during the season, it's evidence that I definitely mentioned regarding his durability. If that game hadn't been a sub affected game then I'd have left it in there.
I used R10 onward simply because he was one of the slowest to realise the advantage that the new ruck rules gave him and how to do that. Xerri was another who didn't really seem to get it straight away, Gawn luckily got the baptism of fire from Grundy in round 0 and was very quick to pick it up on the contrast. It's logical that a rule favouring strength and minimising leap would lead to higher scoring for the strong rucks that don't jump so well. Xerri and Nank both great examples. ROB and Grundy also examples, ROB another to take a long time to really work out how to use it and Grundy one who exploited it heavily early in the season before other teams kind of worked him out a bit.
That the likes of English, Stanley, Draper, Bailey Williams and Reeves all struggled so much as the weaker and more jump reliant rucks is another supporting piece of evidence. It may flip completely this year and prove to be purely a flash in the pan but it's definitely a trend I noticed last year, admittedly not really watching very closely compared to normal.
All just theory at the end of the day, TDK could come out and average 130 and obliterate the theory but I think Nank putting up a career year that trended upwards as he adapted is at least worth pointing out.
The only game I removed was the game where he was injured and then subbed off, every other game is just a full game sample and I also left in the average with that score in to be clear of its impact. You're not picking a premium if you expect them to be subbed off during the season, it's evidence that I definitely mentioned regarding his durability. If that game hadn't been a sub affected game then I'd have left it in there.
I used R10 onward simply because he was one of the slowest to realise the advantage that the new ruck rules gave him and how to do that. Xerri was another who didn't really seem to get it straight away, Gawn luckily got the baptism of fire from Grundy in round 0 and was very quick to pick it up on the contrast. It's logical that a rule favouring strength and minimising leap would lead to higher scoring for the strong rucks that don't jump so well. Xerri and Nank both great examples. ROB and Grundy also examples, ROB another to take a long time to really work out how to use it and Grundy one who exploited it heavily early in the season before other teams kind of worked him out a bit.
That the likes of English, Stanley, Draper, Bailey Williams and Reeves all struggled so much as the weaker and more jump reliant rucks is another supporting piece of evidence. It may flip completely this year and prove to be purely a flash in the pan but it's definitely a trend I noticed last year, admittedly not really watching very closely compared to normal.
All just theory at the end of the day, TDK could come out and average 130 and obliterate the theory but I think Nank putting up a career year that trended upwards as he adapted is at least worth pointing out.
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I'll pick one in the Flex personally. If both are undisputed 1st ruck for their sides then you need them on field but I really like the rucks more than most lines so would rather spend some cash there. Also adds a lot more security if something goes wrong. The R3 is a F/R to keep the flex spot open, ideally someone who is playing pops up. Becomes interesting if it's a Barnett type who is the best R3 choice without the DPP, at least to start the season.
No preseason issues is really narrowing things for me.
Gawn gets an exception because he's Gawn and proven but otherwise Marshall, English and Darcy have all been ruled out. So really down to Xerri and his awful bye, Gawn, Nank and, maybe TDK (although he might also be injured and also has an awful bye).
I think I'm just going to have to accept that the r12 bye is where my season ends and just have fun until then
No preseason issues is really narrowing things for me.
Gawn gets an exception because he's Gawn and proven but otherwise Marshall, English and Darcy have all been ruled out. So really down to Xerri and his awful bye, Gawn, Nank and, maybe TDK (although he might also be injured and also has an awful bye).
I think I'm just going to have to accept that the r12 bye is where my season ends and just have fun until then
Xerri was 111.8 until R20.
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Xerri vs his opposition:
1. Briggs/Riccardi/Cadman - 107
2. Jackson/Treacy - 108
3. TDK/McKay - 90
4. McInerney/Daniher - 115
5. Stanley/Neale - 91
6. Meek/Chol - 144
7. O'Brien/Himmelberg - 103
8. Marshall/Hayes - 133
9. Witts/Lukosius - 82
10. Goldstein/Wright - 96
11. Sweet/Finlayson - 119
13. Flynn/B. Williams - 131
14. Cameron/Kreuger - 103
15. Gawn/JVR - 111
16. English/ Darcy - 141
17. Moyle/Lukosius/Day - 119
18. Grundy/McLean - 111
19. TDK/McKay/Cripps - 109
20. Blicavs/Neale - 151
21. Nank/Koschitzke - 144
22. B. Williams/J. Williams - 185
23. Lobb/Darcy/Khamis - 141
24. Meek/Weddle/Chol - 123
1. Briggs/Riccardi/Cadman - 107
2. Jackson/Treacy - 108
3. TDK/McKay - 90
4. McInerney/Daniher - 115
5. Stanley/Neale - 91
6. Meek/Chol - 144
7. O'Brien/Himmelberg - 103
8. Marshall/Hayes - 133
9. Witts/Lukosius - 82
10. Goldstein/Wright - 96
11. Sweet/Finlayson - 119
13. Flynn/B. Williams - 131
14. Cameron/Kreuger - 103
15. Gawn/JVR - 111
16. English/ Darcy - 141
17. Moyle/Lukosius/Day - 119
18. Grundy/McLean - 111
19. TDK/McKay/Cripps - 109
20. Blicavs/Neale - 151
21. Nank/Koschitzke - 144
22. B. Williams/J. Williams - 185
23. Lobb/Darcy/Khamis - 141
24. Meek/Weddle/Chol - 123