Position 2025: DEFENDER DISCUSSION

[Manikato1]

And while on the subject of KI stats I was looking at some of these a while back and I was using Wheelo Ratings as they listed % numbers as well. I found however that some of their stats appeared to be incorrect. Not sure if there is an error in the calc or my interpretation of their stats.

They listed % as KI/Total KI.




Take Port. They listed KI% for Farrell 37.9, Burton at 37.3, and Houston 36.4. Well that totals over 100% without adding on the other players that took the odd one. The table showed games played and ave KI per game and they matched up correctly. EG Houston played 22 games at 3.6 for 80 KI total. Port had total 267 KI so Houston at 80 KI equals 29.9% by my reckoning. And Farrell was 31.8% and Burton 22%

I am either missing something (eg the stat is not calced the way I thought it was or it means something else) or it is incorrect. Wanted to contact Wheelo to clarify but they have no contact point other than X which I do not use.

 

[bluesbrothers]

Inspired by this tweet thought I'd do some deep diving around the benefit of the kick in role for Supercoach in 2024.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1888430179196063978

View: https://twitter.com/fantasynut_afl/status/1888430179196063978


So I included the top 2 total kick in players from each club as well as any other who had more than 50 kick ins for the year. Also note I used the SC adjusted average as provided on the DFS website which takes out any injured or sub affected scores. And of course got all my data from th wonderful DFS website.

The average Supercoach average for all of the top kick in players from each team was 95.5. Taking this further any player that had more than 100 kick ins for their club had an average of 107.1 which highlights the importance of the role for Supercoach scoring. There were 6 players in this category (Zorko, Ryan, Whitfield, Blakey, Dale, McGovern).

Another interesting point was the average of the 40 qualifying players for my data set was 92.0 which is a fairly high number considering some of the names on the list.

Thought I'd go through the top 20 priced defenders to start this season to further highlight this when thinking you might find someone who will break out into the top echelon as to how important the role is;

Flanders - #2 KI player overall for GCS. #1 from round 5 to 15. 31% CBA usage over the year.
Sheezel - #3 KI player overall for NM. #1 from round 1 to 7. 31% CBA usage over the year.
Ryan - #1 KI player for Freo with 149.
Whitfield - #1 KI player for GWS with 159.
Zorko - #1 KI player for Bris with 111.
McGovern - #1 KI player for WCE with 117.
Sinclair - #2 KI player for StK with 65. 30% CBA usage over the year.
Houston - #2 KI player for PtA with 80.
Martin - #3 KI player for Ess with 35. #1 from round 1 to 8.
Clark - #2 KI player for Freo with 49.
Ridley - #4 KI player for Ess with 24. #1 from round 11 to 10.
Newman - #2 KI player for Car with 64.
Wanganeen-Milera - #1 KI player for StK with 91.
Holmes - #5 KI player for Gee with 20. 32% CBA usage over the year.
Sicily - #3 KI player for Haw with 42.
Dale - #1 KI player for WBD with 102.
Blakey - #1 KI player for Syd with 108
Stewart - #1 KI player for Gee with 68.
McGrath #1 KI player for Ess with 74.
Hinge - #2 KI player Ade with 73.

Not sure if this tells us anything we don't know but feel as though a move to half back without the corresponding usage in kick ins might not be enough to challenge that top 6.

View attachment 83716

Great Work....

Was already looking at Whitfield and this certainly does him no harm. The year before he took 106 kick-ins so saw quite an uptick last year. For the most part this seems to be as a result of Cumming not taking kick-ins last year with Whitfield taking his share. Priced at his maximum, but so are a lot of other reliable scoring defenders. Has the early bye, but being he is the replacement for Flanders who seems injured, shouldn't have to much impact. Actually thought he increased his contested possession rate last year as well, though haven't looked at stats to see if that is accurate. Would really like to start Ryan instead, as he has started really well two years running now, but hard to know if his drop of late last year was game style, lack of key defenders (thus making him more accountable), or Chapman stealing some of his points. At his price there is prob a little too much risk, despite having a great bye.

 

[freowho]

And while on the subject of KI stats I was looking at some of these a while back and I was using Wheelo Ratings as they listed % numbers as well. I found however that some of their stats appeared to be incorrect. Not sure if there is an error in the calc or my interpretation of their stats.

They listed % as KI/Total KI.

View attachment 83725


Take Port. They listed KI% for Farrell 37.9, Burton at 37.3, and Houston 36.4. Well that totals over 100% without adding on the other players that took the odd one. The table showed games played and ave KI per game and they matched up correctly. EG Houston played 22 games at 3.6 for 80 KI total. Port had total 267 KI so Houston at 80 KI equals 29.9% by my reckoning. And Farrell was 31.8% and Burton 22%

I am either missing something (eg the stat is not calced the way I thought it was or it means something else) or it is incorrect. Wanted to contact Wheelo to clarify but they have no contact point other than X which I do not use.

It's only a percentage from games they played and they all missed games. Burton missed a lot.

 

[OnTopBar]

Great Work....

Was already looking at Whitfield and this certainly does him no harm. The year before he took 106 kick-ins so saw quite an uptick last year. For the most part this seems to be as a result of Cumming not taking kick-ins last year with Whitfield taking his share. Priced at his maximum, but so are a lot of other reliable scoring defenders. Has the early bye, but being he is the replacement for Flanders who seems injured, shouldn't have to much impact. Actually thought he increased his contested possession rate last year as well, though haven't looked at stats to see if that is accurate. Would really like to start Ryan instead, as he has started really well two years running now, but hard to know if his drop of late last year was game style, lack of key defenders (thus making him more accountable), or Chapman stealing some of his points. At his price there is prob a little too much risk, despite having a great bye.

Ryan's drop of was due to a change in game style, Longmuir ripped a new one in the defenders for chipping around and stat padding over the mid season bye, I didn't recognise this and bought Ryan for $666k at the exact same time, silly me!

 

[Manikato1]

It's only a percentage from games they played and they all missed games. Burton missed a lot.

Thanks. That makes more sense but their definition leaves a bit to be desired. If there had not been three Port players together I would have considered the numbers differently.

 

[toxic]

Wayne Milera....

Is he an option for anyone?

 

[freowho]

Wayne Milera....

Is he an option for anyone?

If needed. I would prefer a cheaper rookie.

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

Wayne Milera....

Is he an option for anyone?

I'm looking at him, I can't really see others in his price bracket outside of Sinn who could outperform. Durability obviously the substantial issue.

 

[froffershanners]

Wayne Milera....

Is he an option for anyone?

Definitely an option. Currently flirting with him at D6 in my latest iteration.

Priced at 47 and excluding the game where he got injured last year averaged 77.8 since the start of 2023.

If he is fit, locked into a half back role and takes some kick ins during the pre season games then he’ll be hard to ignore for mine.

 

[toxic]

Definitely an option. Currently flirting with him at D6 in my latest iteration.

Priced at 47 and excluding the game where he got injured last year averaged 77.8 since the start of 2023.

If he is fit, locked into a half back role and takes some kick ins during the pre season games then he’ll be hard to ignore for mine.

I feel dirty even considering him

Lack of def rookies might force everyone's hand

 

[Post Nut Clarity]

Wayne Milera....

Is he an option for anyone?

Definitely an option. Currently flirting with him at D6 in my latest iteration.

Priced at 47 and excluding the game where he got injured last year averaged 77.8 since the start of 2023.

If he is fit, locked into a half back role and takes some kick ins during the pre season games then he’ll be hard to ignore for mine.

The longer this preseason goes, the more inclined I am to start him.

Sinclair and Flanders were both locked into my side but injuries are obviously concerning.

Milera has a good bye and has shown he’s more than capable of adding 30ppg to his average.

Durability is obviously the concern but if he looks fit during preseason, I dare say he’ll find his way into my side!

 

[Singapore Flyers]

Wayne Milera....

Is he an option for anyone?

I agree that the lack of rookies might force our hand. The other main alternative at the price point I am considering is Griffin Logue. Considered a major signing, he never got started last year. He has shown at Freo he is a 65-70 type player. Thinking there might be a possible upside playing in the north Melbourne backline.
A few of the AFL Fantasy podcasts I listen to are talking up Schoenmaker. They all put Schoenmaker ahead of Milera for D5.
definitely looking at least 1 or 2 players in this price range at the moment. Sure they might emerge, but at the moment the only def rookies I feel confident might play are B Allan and Z Reid. There seems to be an opportunity for Buslinger with the Liam Jones injury, but that might not be long enough to make sufficient cash. There was also a lot of early hype around Travaglia, but that buzz has gone a bit quiet

 

[toxic]

I agree that the lack of rookies might force our hand. The other main alternative at the price point I am considering is Griffin Logue. Considered a major signing, he never got started last year. He has shown at Freo he is a 65-70 type player. Thinking there might be a possible upside playing in the north Melbourne backline.
A few of the AFL Fantasy podcasts I listen to are talking up Schoenmaker. They all put Schoenmaker ahead of Milera for D5.
definitely looking at least 1 or 2 players in this price range at the moment. Sure they might emerge, but at the moment the only def rookies I feel confident might play are B Allan and Z Reid. There seems to be an opportunity for Buslinger with the Liam Jones injury, but that might not be long enough to make sufficient cash. There was also a lot of early hype around Travaglia, but that buzz has gone a bit quiet

Matt Whitlock i suspect gets games before Logue

 

[toxic]

Where has Busslinger been?

Looks a lock in defence

 

[Shannon]

Where has Busslinger been?

Looks a lock in defence

Had a great finish to the season in the VFL last year, very talented WA kid. Think he gets plenty of games for the dogs this season & been locked on my defender bench since Jones got injured.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Where has Busslinger been?

Looks a lock in defence

Playing the second half of the practice match today only not a particularly good sign.

 

[BIGB0Y]

Apart from Sheezel I have no idea who to pick next as my second premo in defence.

 

[wogitalia]

Where has Busslinger been?

Looks a lock in defence

Played well today but only played 2nd half. Would think he's clearly behind Khamis, Jones, Lobb and O'Donnell at this point, so probably needs two injuries. Feels like a downgrade prospect later in the year if they start to look unlikely for finals.

On a positive, Whitlock and Reid both looked solid today as good strong bench rookie types that should play if fit. Whitlock could potentially be fieldable if the role lands right.

Not much has changed for me in the backs so far.

Short is the X factor. Mills will probably be a must. Stewart and Holmes both appeal despite their bye. Clark/NWM/Sinclair/Ryan remains a pick 2 at most, I can make good for/against on all 4.

I like Dale also but shares the bye with Sheezel.

Duggan, Rivers, Humphries, Bergman/Evans/Burton/Farrell, SDK, Milera and Archer all on my speculative watch list.

Rookie options are the huge question here, finding the balance between fielding rookies and taking premiums I don't want is going to be a very difficult balance, especially with so few midprice options on the board right now.

There's also a few DPP changes that could be important with Laird and Shiel in particular. Stone could also be very valuable here if his role holds up to round 1, think he can score very decently if he makes the team.

Will help an awful lot if Williams, Travaglia, McLennan, Fonti, Paton, El-Hawli or a few of the others can step up as on field option rookies.

 

[BIGB0Y]

Played well today but only played 2nd half. Would think he's clearly behind Khamis, Jones, Lobb and O'Donnell at this point, so probably needs two injuries. Feels like a downgrade prospect later in the year if they start to look unlikely for finals.

On a positive, Whitlock and Reid both looked solid today as good strong bench rookie types that should play if fit. Whitlock could potentially be fieldable if the role lands right.

Not much has changed for me in the backs so far.

Short is the X factor. Mills will probably be a must. Stewart and Holmes both appeal despite their bye. Clark/NWM/Sinclair/Ryan remains a pick 2 at most, I can make good for/against on all 4.

I like Dale also but shares the bye with Sheezel.

Duggan, Rivers, Humphries, Bergman/Evans/Burton/Farrell, SDK, Milera and Archer all on my speculative watch list.

Rookie options are the huge question here, finding the balance between fielding rookies and taking premiums I don't want is going to be a very difficult balance, especially with so few midprice options on the board right now.

There's also a few DPP changes that could be important with Laird and Shiel in particular. Stone could also be very valuable here if his role holds up to round 1, think he can score very decently if he makes the team.

Will help an awful lot if Williams, Travaglia, McLennan, Fonti, Paton, El-Hawli or a few of the others can step up as on field option rookies.

I'm leaning towards one of the cats defenders for my D2, take Stewart's sub games out he ave 102. I think his good for 102-105 range this year. Holmes could easily push 105-110 with a mid HB role. I think the Freo pair are over priced, I was keen on Sinclair till his injury and NWM I'm watching as well I'm not overly keen though. Short for me is underpriced and for his price tag he's worth the punt.

 

[Spots]

Is there no love for Matt Roberts here? The early bye is an issue but presents value. Averaged 99 in the last 10 including finals.