Draft after first round of preseason games
View attachment 84047
DEF
Sheezel - He's a lock for me. Only guy I'm confident is top 5 defender that's available for round 1, imo.
Clark - I don't love this pick at all to be honest. I like him but it's very speculative if he can actually go top 6 which means I don't really want to start him but I had a few hundred k left over so I nabbed him.
NWM - I like him more but can't say I love him either. Can see both Clark and NWM anywhere from 95-115 but I think the 105 region is where I'd place my bet. I don't think 105 is really enough but with the flex and the r0 culling the herd, it probably is borderline.
Mills - Common theme in defense, but I don't love this pick. Just don't trust him physically. SDK another pick I don't like with same price/bye so easy sideways.
Woewodin - Liked his game and can see the role there for him. Think he'd be fieldable in that role. Need to watch though.
Allan - Ditto for liking role and fieldable. Realistically I expect this D6 spot is going to be the early flex target.
O'Sullivan - Liked him also, think a solid benchy if he wins the gig. Very good potential to be a D6 also if he does.
Reid - Pure bench play but I think he's firmly best 22 if fit. Health is always a safer bet than best 22, imo.
Ideally I really want to either 6 or even 7 rookies down back right now. My gut just says that D6 is going to be around 110 but all the guys who make that up have round 0 issue except for Sheezel. I think Ryan might be overpriced but in that category still and Sinclair the hamstring scares me.
I really don't like the DEF options.
MID
Bont - I had about 1.2m leftover when I finished my first cut, so Bont came in. Just a vibe check right now but I don't love this pick. I also hate his bye but if he's #1 again then it's worth burning one of those extremely valuable bye spots.
Serong - Bye is great, upside is there, rate him. He's my 2nd picked mid right now and I'd be surprised if he's not in my round 1 team unless he's not in the Dockers round one team!
LDU - Opposite vibe check to Bont where I keep coming back to him in my drafts. I really like Butters, Rozee, JHF and Cripps but just keep landing on LDU. LDU and me have a very traumatic history so I just know that I'll get it wrong either way, somehow like Robbie Gray back in the day, I'd rather be wrong and have to trade him out than be wrong and not pick him when he finally reaches his potential, so here we are chasing the dream again!
Laird - This was the last pick and I hate all the options here for different reasons. I came out with Laird because I think he's fair to slightly under priced and I like his odds of being keepable at 105-110 in defense a lot higher than the Crouch/Dawson/Taranto quagmire. Ultimately I'm still kind of hoping Petracca will be there smiling at me. Also very strongly considering Steele or Brayshaw here. Those byes really hurt here.
Oliver - First picked mid. I'd rather be wrong with the crowd then run the gauntlet that could end my season and I was actually happy with how he looked so that helps.
NOD - I don't love this pick but I like it and he's got great scoring potential.
Tsatas - Similar to NOD, we get round one on here and just about every other name is cheaper (FOS aside) so it's easy to fix if the role isn't there.
Knevitt - Loved his role and, more importantly, how he played in it. Another I get the round 0 answer on and have plenty of cheaper options.
The other 3 are more place holders I liked the look of, the DPP of El-Hawl would be nice but I'm definitely not chasing it.
Mids are also very hard for lack of options right now. There's about 6 guys I really like from one by, then a couple from another and just a distinct lack from the others. I still want to break my preseason rule on Reid though
RUCK
Gawn - Back the great man in. Helps bye balance immensely and just no reason not to at this point. If English had the same bye as Gawn then there'd be a real discussion.
Xerri - I like his upside, which at this price is an extreme thing to say but helps me feel a lot better about him holding his starting point. English is really the only other name I'm strongly considering, if he has a big hitout this week then I'll be strongly considering it do think English can get back to 120+ which makes him great value but a lot more doubt of him doing it than Xerri right now.
Boyd - Not locked to this but he was solid. I'll take whoever is playing with the best role most likely.
Only real decision to me is whether to go two premium or not, we don't get any answers at all on the cheap rucks with round 0, so I'll plan for it to be a hard no and find a way to spend all the extra cash if it all falls together. Weirdly, I think I'd take English if I do go down the risky path over Gawn/Xerri, which sums up how close I think the 3 are but not starting my top 2 is basically a statement I think they fall back and so I want the value path to them.
FORWARD
Baker - Love the role. My rule with forwards is always pick the FWD eligible players who aren't playing forward, always will be. He is going to see an awful lot of ball in a team with not a lot of genuinely good rebounding options (rookie Bo Allan may very well be the 2nd best). He helps the bye balance immensely, I can actually see a huge advantage around bye planning this year and so will look to exploit it. The bye is a bonus though, I think he can go 95+ with 105+ not outside my projection range. Gun to me head I'd say 98 which makes him great value and a premium on my projections.
Macrae - First picked for me.
Daniel - 2nd picked.
Lynch - If he's there round 1 I'll struggle not to pick and start him. Capable of 85+, should hit 65 region on the low end assuming he's on the park and fit. Injury the issue but not often you get the first picked player at a club at a rookie price so you run that gauntlet.
SPP - Similar to Lynch, looked fit in their game, and he's a solid 65-75 range guy who can put up big spike games when he kicks a few and gets a good matchup. That's a good strong rookie. Flex definitely helps me field both Lynch and SPP with more confidence if they do have a poor game.
Stone - Like the player, like the role and scoring potential. Plenty of depth here and will get the round 0 sighter, so not phased either way.
Berry - Solid bench option, really impressed me in preseason game, role is not terrible and he will keep it ticking over.
Davidson - More speculative as has to win the wing role still but I really liked what he did against Essendon and think he put his hand up. Should score very decently for his price in that role.
Not phased about the forwards, it's weird that for the first time since Zach Merrett was a forward I feel pretty good about the options. I really like Rankine and JHF as premiums if I end up on that path, there's a half dozen guys I like in Baker's price region, there's a handful more in lower ranges as well and I don't see a lot of major DPP changes in bound right now so happy with my threshold projections (Petracca, Sheezel and TDK probably the main 3 right now I'll watch). Rookie group is very deep with plenty of options. Be nice to get them right but expect that's where at least one of the correction trades will be headed.
Found this a pretty difficult team to pick, just so thin on mids at the top end and defense across all levels with so many FWD, RUCK and MID rookie options that you struggle to spend the cap. Genuinely challenging a lot of my team building rules of do I actually keep some powder dry to get the defender/mid guys I want after their early byes and grab some quick cash on the way?
View attachment 84047
DEF
Sheezel - He's a lock for me. Only guy I'm confident is top 5 defender that's available for round 1, imo.
Clark - I don't love this pick at all to be honest. I like him but it's very speculative if he can actually go top 6 which means I don't really want to start him but I had a few hundred k left over so I nabbed him.
NWM - I like him more but can't say I love him either. Can see both Clark and NWM anywhere from 95-115 but I think the 105 region is where I'd place my bet. I don't think 105 is really enough but with the flex and the r0 culling the herd, it probably is borderline.
Mills - Common theme in defense, but I don't love this pick. Just don't trust him physically. SDK another pick I don't like with same price/bye so easy sideways.
Woewodin - Liked his game and can see the role there for him. Think he'd be fieldable in that role. Need to watch though.
Allan - Ditto for liking role and fieldable. Realistically I expect this D6 spot is going to be the early flex target.
O'Sullivan - Liked him also, think a solid benchy if he wins the gig. Very good potential to be a D6 also if he does.
Reid - Pure bench play but I think he's firmly best 22 if fit. Health is always a safer bet than best 22, imo.
Ideally I really want to either 6 or even 7 rookies down back right now. My gut just says that D6 is going to be around 110 but all the guys who make that up have round 0 issue except for Sheezel. I think Ryan might be overpriced but in that category still and Sinclair the hamstring scares me.
I really don't like the DEF options.
MID
Bont - I had about 1.2m leftover when I finished my first cut, so Bont came in. Just a vibe check right now but I don't love this pick. I also hate his bye but if he's #1 again then it's worth burning one of those extremely valuable bye spots.
Serong - Bye is great, upside is there, rate him. He's my 2nd picked mid right now and I'd be surprised if he's not in my round 1 team unless he's not in the Dockers round one team!
LDU - Opposite vibe check to Bont where I keep coming back to him in my drafts. I really like Butters, Rozee, JHF and Cripps but just keep landing on LDU. LDU and me have a very traumatic history so I just know that I'll get it wrong either way, somehow like Robbie Gray back in the day, I'd rather be wrong and have to trade him out than be wrong and not pick him when he finally reaches his potential, so here we are chasing the dream again!
Laird - This was the last pick and I hate all the options here for different reasons. I came out with Laird because I think he's fair to slightly under priced and I like his odds of being keepable at 105-110 in defense a lot higher than the Crouch/Dawson/Taranto quagmire. Ultimately I'm still kind of hoping Petracca will be there smiling at me. Also very strongly considering Steele or Brayshaw here. Those byes really hurt here.
Oliver - First picked mid. I'd rather be wrong with the crowd then run the gauntlet that could end my season and I was actually happy with how he looked so that helps.
NOD - I don't love this pick but I like it and he's got great scoring potential.
Tsatas - Similar to NOD, we get round one on here and just about every other name is cheaper (FOS aside) so it's easy to fix if the role isn't there.
Knevitt - Loved his role and, more importantly, how he played in it. Another I get the round 0 answer on and have plenty of cheaper options.
The other 3 are more place holders I liked the look of, the DPP of El-Hawl would be nice but I'm definitely not chasing it.
Mids are also very hard for lack of options right now. There's about 6 guys I really like from one by, then a couple from another and just a distinct lack from the others. I still want to break my preseason rule on Reid though
RUCK
Gawn - Back the great man in. Helps bye balance immensely and just no reason not to at this point. If English had the same bye as Gawn then there'd be a real discussion.
Xerri - I like his upside, which at this price is an extreme thing to say but helps me feel a lot better about him holding his starting point. English is really the only other name I'm strongly considering, if he has a big hitout this week then I'll be strongly considering it do think English can get back to 120+ which makes him great value but a lot more doubt of him doing it than Xerri right now.
Boyd - Not locked to this but he was solid. I'll take whoever is playing with the best role most likely.
Only real decision to me is whether to go two premium or not, we don't get any answers at all on the cheap rucks with round 0, so I'll plan for it to be a hard no and find a way to spend all the extra cash if it all falls together. Weirdly, I think I'd take English if I do go down the risky path over Gawn/Xerri, which sums up how close I think the 3 are but not starting my top 2 is basically a statement I think they fall back and so I want the value path to them.
FORWARD
Baker - Love the role. My rule with forwards is always pick the FWD eligible players who aren't playing forward, always will be. He is going to see an awful lot of ball in a team with not a lot of genuinely good rebounding options (rookie Bo Allan may very well be the 2nd best). He helps the bye balance immensely, I can actually see a huge advantage around bye planning this year and so will look to exploit it. The bye is a bonus though, I think he can go 95+ with 105+ not outside my projection range. Gun to me head I'd say 98 which makes him great value and a premium on my projections.
Macrae - First picked for me.
Daniel - 2nd picked.
Lynch - If he's there round 1 I'll struggle not to pick and start him. Capable of 85+, should hit 65 region on the low end assuming he's on the park and fit. Injury the issue but not often you get the first picked player at a club at a rookie price so you run that gauntlet.
SPP - Similar to Lynch, looked fit in their game, and he's a solid 65-75 range guy who can put up big spike games when he kicks a few and gets a good matchup. That's a good strong rookie. Flex definitely helps me field both Lynch and SPP with more confidence if they do have a poor game.
Stone - Like the player, like the role and scoring potential. Plenty of depth here and will get the round 0 sighter, so not phased either way.
Berry - Solid bench option, really impressed me in preseason game, role is not terrible and he will keep it ticking over.
Davidson - More speculative as has to win the wing role still but I really liked what he did against Essendon and think he put his hand up. Should score very decently for his price in that role.
Not phased about the forwards, it's weird that for the first time since Zach Merrett was a forward I feel pretty good about the options. I really like Rankine and JHF as premiums if I end up on that path, there's a half dozen guys I like in Baker's price region, there's a handful more in lower ranges as well and I don't see a lot of major DPP changes in bound right now so happy with my threshold projections (Petracca, Sheezel and TDK probably the main 3 right now I'll watch). Rookie group is very deep with plenty of options. Be nice to get them right but expect that's where at least one of the correction trades will be headed.
Found this a pretty difficult team to pick, just so thin on mids at the top end and defense across all levels with so many FWD, RUCK and MID rookie options that you struggle to spend the cap. Genuinely challenging a lot of my team building rules of do I actually keep some powder dry to get the defender/mid guys I want after their early byes and grab some quick cash on the way?
No E Hewett either -think he is a must have myself.
Lynch at F4 risky… makes the fwd line look weak. Think you should consider dropping Laird for Langford maybe & add JHF & Hewett.
Flynn unlikely for round 1 also btw - maybe H Garcia in the flex spot instead.
