Btw Row, I am contemplating getting in my M7/M8 this round.
Question is, I have 3 options to choose from and would ask who do you think would be best to bring in.
1. Goddard (take away his injury affected score and he is flying!)
2. Barlow (easy run coming up but could always wait a week with his moderate B/E of 125)
3. Rocky (the most expensive of the 3 options but is a true gun, worried about his team being spanked though)
4. Any other options I should be looking at?
Cheers mate!
The Mids you don't have, that I believe are a chance to be in the top 8 Mid scorers from here are: JPK, Fyfe, Rocky, SJ, Dal and Barlow. You'll note I don't have Goddard in there, but I freely admit some better judges than me rate him a chance to keep scoring highly.
JPK - in 2012, when he averaged 120, he averaged 12 K's, 16 HB's, 1.1 Goal (0.6 G Ass), 16.7 CP's and had a DE of 68% and TOG 86%. Last season his figures were: average 105, 10 K's, 17 HB's, 0.6 Goal (0.7 G Ass), 16.4 CP's, DE 66%, TOG 85% - so his average fell 15 on the back of 2 less kicks, 0.5 Goal less, and a slightly lower DE %. It really demonstrates how fragile a 115+ average can be! This season his numbers are: average 124, 13 K's, 19 HB's, 0.6 Goals (0.7 G Ass), 18 CP's, DE 65% and TOG 84% - His average has risen 19 on the back of 3 K's, 2 HB's and 1.6 CP's more this season. All maintainable. Definitely a chance to keep going 115+ from here.
Fyfe - played only 79 games, and is averaging 120 this season. Could be the next Pendlebury.
Rocky - his 140+ scores in the last season and a bit came in: 7, 12, 21 point wins, a 26 point loss, and 53 point loss with 35 possessions and 3 goals. He could be one out of the box, but he'd need to be to pump out the scores we want in a side that might only win 2 more games for the season. He can't go 35 possessions and 3 goals in losing teams too often.
SJ - beats up on weaker teams. From round 12 Geelong play: Carl, StK, GC, Ess, WB, Melb, GWS, Nth, before he gets Crowleyed again. He could average 125 in that stretch!
Dal - scores in wins this season: 119, 128, 134, 135, 140 - ave 131, scores in losses this season: 75, 94, 96, 106 - ave 93. North's draw includes games against:
WC, Rich,
Ade, Melb,
Bris, Haw, StK, Car, Geel,
GWS, WB, Ade, Melb. (
interstate games) You would think North can win 8 of those games. At his current season averages, that gives him (8 x 131) + (4 x 93)/12 = 118/game from here. I know it's not that easy, but you get the idea.
Barlow - The poor mans Swan (pre-2014), if Fyfe is the poor mans Pendlebury. Forgive him his first 2 games back from a ligament strain, and he's averaged 120 in the other 3 games. Scored 100+ in every game from rnds 7 to 21 last season (missed round 14, and had a bye round 11) and averaged 118 in those 13 games, so can maintain a 115+ over a long period.
Goddard - In 2010 he posted 15 130+ scores, including 2 GF's. Since then he has only recorded 7 130+ scores in 71 games. Those scores all came in winning games, and the margins were: 6, 20, 24, 30, 39, 65, 92. Too many question marks to be taken with confidence. I think his level these days is in the 108 range, and I think you might want better than that for your M8.
On value, I'd go Goddard, Barlow and SJ (after his B/E 168 disappears in a game or 2). On a pure points basis, I'd go Fyfe, SJ and JPK.
Good luck.
