Of course! It was in the monster "Questions for Rowsus" thread at post #2
http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/1063-Questions-For-Rowsus
http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/1063-Questions-For-Rowsus
How are your Premo's shaping up?
- Thread starter Bob Loblaw
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You can apply the same logic and not buy forwards and rucks for more than 500k and midfielders over 550k (aside from your captain of course).
You'd be left with a team of low priced premiums which is not necessary a bad thing in itself.
This reduction in price is also due to the magic number decreasing over the season, so things being fair, all of your premiums should be expected to fall in value somewhat during the season.
You'd be left with a team of low priced premiums which is not necessary a bad thing in itself.
This reduction in price is also due to the magic number decreasing over the season, so things being fair, all of your premiums should be expected to fall in value somewhat during the season.
Totally agreed.
But remember, we're talking here about top 6 defenders who remain top 6. I probably didn't make that clear enough before. It's a pretty powerful set of numbers. Rowsus was talking about top 10 players here:
"So, 5 years of tables, and we can see that, of the 50 players that filled the 10 most expensive spots in each season, only 21 of them manged to fill a top 10 spot for that season! 23 of the 50 actually finished outside of the top 20 for the season."
And the thing is that 10 of those 21 players who made it were Goddard 5 times and Enright 5 times. You take those two ultra-consistent players out of the equation and:
"of the 40 most expensive defenders over that period (not counting Enright and Goddard) only 11 backed up their price with a top 10 finish." Barely a 25% hit rate. So far this season:
DEFENDERS:
1. A Walker - 20 (rank based on average), 53 (rank based on total points)
2. J McVeigh - 4 (4)
3. J Bartel - 3 (3)
4. S Mitchell - 16 (91)
5. R Murphy - 17 (13)
6. S Thompson - 29 (34)
7. H Shaw - 19 (31)
8. L Hodge - 31 (61)
25% hit rate.
I reckon it's actually pretty cool. We see a lot of cookie cutter backlines at the start of the year but the numbers show that you can get a serious (and cheap) jump on the field by getting "factory seconds" in your backline.
Of course, you still gotta pick the right ones and that aint easy...
But remember, we're talking here about top 6 defenders who remain top 6. I probably didn't make that clear enough before. It's a pretty powerful set of numbers. Rowsus was talking about top 10 players here:
"So, 5 years of tables, and we can see that, of the 50 players that filled the 10 most expensive spots in each season, only 21 of them manged to fill a top 10 spot for that season! 23 of the 50 actually finished outside of the top 20 for the season."
And the thing is that 10 of those 21 players who made it were Goddard 5 times and Enright 5 times. You take those two ultra-consistent players out of the equation and:
"of the 40 most expensive defenders over that period (not counting Enright and Goddard) only 11 backed up their price with a top 10 finish." Barely a 25% hit rate. So far this season:
DEFENDERS:
1. A Walker - 20 (rank based on average), 53 (rank based on total points)
2. J McVeigh - 4 (4)
3. J Bartel - 3 (3)
4. S Mitchell - 16 (91)
5. R Murphy - 17 (13)
6. S Thompson - 29 (34)
7. H Shaw - 19 (31)
8. L Hodge - 31 (61)
25% hit rate.
I reckon it's actually pretty cool. We see a lot of cookie cutter backlines at the start of the year but the numbers show that you can get a serious (and cheap) jump on the field by getting "factory seconds" in your backline.
Of course, you still gotta pick the right ones and that aint easy...
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Very similar story up forward this year with new guys Gray, Parker and Dahlhause all in the top echelon of forwards. The abundance of lower priced premiums that shoot through in the defensive and forward positions really illustrate the importance of leaving your speculative picks to these lines and not your midfeild.
Reckon if you pick two in each line you could go a long way.
This year it would be;
2 of Swallow, Simpson, Malceski, Hurn, (if not for his injury)
2 of Parker, Gray, Dahlhause, Zorko (if not for gastro).
But then you run the risk of picking up the T Mitchell types.
Reckon if you pick two in each line you could go a long way.
This year it would be;
2 of Swallow, Simpson, Malceski, Hurn, (if not for his injury)
2 of Parker, Gray, Dahlhause, Zorko (if not for gastro).
But then you run the risk of picking up the T Mitchell types.
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There are just as many bolters in the mids as there are in the forwards/backline imo. The problem with the mids is that the ceiling is much higher, so it may take 2 seasons to really achieve premium status. With midfielders though, there is always one who has had an injury game and is super cheap (Priddis and Selwood last year - Ward, Liberatore and Goddard this year?)
Two examples who have really delivered this season are Macrae and Mthomas - Both averaging 100 or there abouts and while they both required to be traded out at some stage, I would argue they are just as valuable for a team as picking a Dahlhaus, Swallow, Parker or Gray..
RE: aj74
I would be interested to see how the Forwards, Rucks and Midfielders compare in terms of consistency on a year by year basis. I imagine the story would be quite similar especially if certain superstars were taken out of each of the positions as you have shown with Enright and Goddard (Cox, Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan, Riewoldt, Harvey as exceptions perhaps). Also don't mean to nitpick, but looking at only the top6 defenders its actually 33% which appear again. That plus Mitchell is very unlucky to not be featuring in the top6 again this year, only due to his injury.
Do you (anyone who has an opinion on this) think there is there a reason why defenders would be more prone to up and down years? Maybe there is a reason, but I doubt it is much more likely than a forward or ruck at least..
Two examples who have really delivered this season are Macrae and Mthomas - Both averaging 100 or there abouts and while they both required to be traded out at some stage, I would argue they are just as valuable for a team as picking a Dahlhaus, Swallow, Parker or Gray..
RE: aj74
I would be interested to see how the Forwards, Rucks and Midfielders compare in terms of consistency on a year by year basis. I imagine the story would be quite similar especially if certain superstars were taken out of each of the positions as you have shown with Enright and Goddard (Cox, Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan, Riewoldt, Harvey as exceptions perhaps). Also don't mean to nitpick, but looking at only the top6 defenders its actually 33% which appear again. That plus Mitchell is very unlucky to not be featuring in the top6 again this year, only due to his injury.
Do you (anyone who has an opinion on this) think there is there a reason why defenders would be more prone to up and down years? Maybe there is a reason, but I doubt it is much more likely than a forward or ruck at least..
Beams and Murphy. Had them locked from the opening. JPK was in there for a while as well but I chickened out and went for Watson. Watson has been pretty good, if inconsistent but the better bet was JPK in the end.
MThomas would have been great to start with. I had him pinch hit for me for a few weeks and Macrae would have been better. I reckon those guys are more valuable than the Parker/Dalhaus types due to their starting price. I s'pose though the Parker/Swallow types are keepers though, saving you a trade?
Yeah a couple of things. Rowsus also did thing on rucks that showed only Cox being a consistent backer upper. Combine that with the 20 point breakout rule and that's why I stayed away from Goldy and Minson at the start (Minson was just on the border of 20 points but at his price was too risky). Had considered Jacobs but was swayed too much by the 'never again' crowd. Will do better next year
I'd be interested to see an analysis on whether the forward lines follow the same pattern as the backs. I think it might be a bigger group that dominates the rankings though. Straight off the bat, I reckon Roo, Chappy and Boomer would be in there most years. Buddy, Pav, Stevie J.... Still worth a look though
Centres: Well yeah. Gaz, Pendles, Swan, Selwood have been multiple back to back top 10's for sure. Watson? Judd was pretty handy there for a while. Reckon Bartel a few years back maybe. NDS and Montagna few years back? In no way have I looked at this properly, but it seems like the top mids are a more stable group from year to year.
Good call on the 33%. I've been jumping around too many numbers I think
Mitchell is unlucky not to be in that 33%, to a degree. But you get that. It doesn't matter how they miss out, just that they miss out. Same with the 20 point rule. My view is that it is damn near impossible to be at the top of the elite for 2 years. Either your form drops off, you bust a gasket or the oppo sends someone to you. Now you're getting crunched to the ground every time you kick a ball. You're getting smashed in the marking contests. You're getting your joints twisted more often in the clinches. There's all sorts of things that can take that edge off a player that made them elite. In Mitchell's case, he turned 31 or something.
(For rucks, I'm spun out how they make it though even one game.)
MThomas would have been great to start with. I had him pinch hit for me for a few weeks and Macrae would have been better. I reckon those guys are more valuable than the Parker/Dalhaus types due to their starting price. I s'pose though the Parker/Swallow types are keepers though, saving you a trade?
Yeah a couple of things. Rowsus also did thing on rucks that showed only Cox being a consistent backer upper. Combine that with the 20 point breakout rule and that's why I stayed away from Goldy and Minson at the start (Minson was just on the border of 20 points but at his price was too risky). Had considered Jacobs but was swayed too much by the 'never again' crowd. Will do better next year
I'd be interested to see an analysis on whether the forward lines follow the same pattern as the backs. I think it might be a bigger group that dominates the rankings though. Straight off the bat, I reckon Roo, Chappy and Boomer would be in there most years. Buddy, Pav, Stevie J.... Still worth a look though
Centres: Well yeah. Gaz, Pendles, Swan, Selwood have been multiple back to back top 10's for sure. Watson? Judd was pretty handy there for a while. Reckon Bartel a few years back maybe. NDS and Montagna few years back? In no way have I looked at this properly, but it seems like the top mids are a more stable group from year to year.
Good call on the 33%. I've been jumping around too many numbers I think
Mitchell is unlucky not to be in that 33%, to a degree. But you get that. It doesn't matter how they miss out, just that they miss out. Same with the 20 point rule. My view is that it is damn near impossible to be at the top of the elite for 2 years. Either your form drops off, you bust a gasket or the oppo sends someone to you. Now you're getting crunched to the ground every time you kick a ball. You're getting smashed in the marking contests. You're getting your joints twisted more often in the clinches. There's all sorts of things that can take that edge off a player that made them elite. In Mitchell's case, he turned 31 or something.
(For rucks, I'm spun out how they make it though even one game.)