Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Status
Not open for further replies.

Sloth

Rising Star Winner
Joined
23 Feb 2014
Messages
316
Likes
17
AFL Club
St Kilda
g'day rowsus, is this the right time to pic up nic nat. was thinking would unload Jacobs this week and pocket the extra $153k. nic nat looks to be moving freely and is starting to find form. what do you think he will average from here on in. have 2 upgrades left to complete my squad in Langdon & Langford and plan to upgrade buckley to a premium mid to avoid late outs - swan last week.
 

Bobbie

Best and Fairest
Joined
6 Jun 2012
Messages
2,740
Likes
29
AFL Club
Bulldogs
Hi Rowsus

Thanks for the advice last week re Polec > Watson - worked out great!

Back for some more advice if you have time. I have 12 trades and $49K, going for leagues. I'm not sure whether to make any trades this week or hold and wait for O'Brien to be on the bubble (although not convinced he'll avoid the vest). I would ideally like to maintain my mid/fwd link but not to the detriment of my team and trading plans.

It has been suggested that I go Taylor > Walker via Parker this week. Then next week Hallahan > O'Brien and Langford > Swallow. I doubt I'll have much left in the bank but my side would almost be complete. I would eventually need to trade a forward (Tex?) to a premium mid, thus bringing Parker back to the forward line.

Do you have any thoughts?
 
Joined
21 Mar 2012
Messages
4,202
Likes
6,469
AFL Club
Carlton
Was looking at Daisy - Barlow and Taylor - C Beams (need the second trade to complete the first)

Am wondering if Taylor - O'Brien is the better trade.

I was thinking CB has better JS and could stay as M9-10 but is the extra cash I have left over worth getting O'B instead to facilitate better trades next week?

I only have 12 trades before this round so might have to keep whichever rookie I get in as cover
 
Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
3,146
Likes
3,903
AFL Club
Carlton
Hey Rowsus,

You must be sick of me asking for your advice by now but so far you haven't let me down.
Grabbed Bartel last week to fill hole in mids until this week. Managed to continue my steady climb - Now ranked 216.
Have the option to swing Bartel back to defence this week if I decide and offload the Langdon but I do have other options.

Option 1 - Acres to O'Brien then Bartel to defence (via Langdon), Langdon to Goddard
2 - Taylor to O'Brien then Bartel to defence (via Langdon), Langdon to JPK (or any mid Premo)
3 - Taylor to O'Brien then Bartel to defence (via Langdon), Langdon to Goddard ($141K left)
4 - Any other Option

B: McVeigh, Swallow, Jaensch, Simpson, Hibberd, LANGDON (Langford, Bews)
M: Ablett, Pendles, Selwood, Fyfe, Libba, Murphy, Beams, Shenton (ACRES, TAYLOR)
R: Minson, Sandi (Thurlow, Currie)
F: Martin, Danger, Gray, Pav, Higgins, Shenton (Ambrose, Cameron)

$72K

Concern is now bench cover (especially bringing in O'Brien). Also a Premo short in fwd and mid lines.
Offloading Acres instead of Taylor I would be able to maintain dpp link either way if needed. Especially when the dreaded GS comes into play.
Would like JPK but probably too pricey. Not a real fan of getting Zorko back in and would prefer a Parker (more consistent) or even take a punt on Buddy
Do I finish mids this week and look at fwds week after? Or bring in a Parker or Buddy this week and hold Langdon for one more (although B/E 109 - may lose cash)
Alot of questions I know but your help and suggestions are much appreciated.
11 trades.

Cheers Slammer
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,132
Likes
64,898
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hey Rowsus, with 160k in the bank I'm stuck with a bit of a dilemma. Tyson currently my m8 and after this round, should have the funds to go to Fyfe in one trade. Also have Lloyd, Ambrose and Shenton as my F6/F7/F8, but I'm not sure whether its a priority to get in Fyfe who has a ridiculously good run home, or Buddy who looks to have finally found some form. Tyson>Fyfe would take 1 trade, Lloyd>Buddy would take a downgrade (Acres to O'Brien) then an upgrade. Would love your thoughts, cheers.
Hey dyii,
you may possibly be precluded from the 2 trade option, depending on what's happening with Jacobs, and if you are willing to cop a donut there. For the moment, let's assume Jacob's is playing. Even though Buddy is going to take a downgrade, and that downgrade is going to a player not on the bubble, I think I'd take Buddy first. O'Brien should get a couple of games, and Buddy has a B/E of 32, compared to Fyfe's 170. Add in the injury cloud over Fyfe, and it looks like an easy decision. Get Buddy.
Good luck :)
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,132
Likes
64,898
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hey Rowsus I know you're not a fan of either Jaench or Hanley but if you had to pick one who would it be?

Hanley has the history of being a decent scorer and a lot of people predicted he would average close to 100 this year but he plays in a shocking side who will most likely get smashed every week.

Jaensch has no history behind him and some would say job/role security issues when Henderson returns but plays a very supercoach friendly role and has been very good this season, averaging a touch over 100 without his sub affected game.

I'm 50/50 at this stage. Hanley is potentially the safer option but I love Jaensch's potential consistency.
Hey ZP,
When choosing between history, and potential, and the players aren't over 30, I think you should always choose history. You are asking the player with potential to show us something he hasn't shown us before, where as the player with history is only being asked to repeat what he has previously done. Hanley would appear to be a better choice to me.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,132
Likes
64,898
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hey Rowsus, I posted this in the Player X v Y thread but I would also love your thoughts on each player and which direction you think I should go in.

Goddard v Barlow v Griffen

Goddard

Pros: averaging 118 taking out his injury-affected 11, SC gun in the past (averaged 130 and 115 before), essendon back into some form after good win, more points for BJ?
Cons: hasn't averaged over 110 since 2010, can he keep up this early season form? Playing up forward for long periods of time, can he consistently score well from there?
Question: What's actually causing him to score so many more points than last year?

Barlow

Pros: amazing draw coming up, unlikely to cop a tag, averaged 110 last year and 116 in his debut season (124 if you take out injury-affected game and third game where tagged by Ling).
Cons: hasn't shown a high ceiling as of late, can he outscore Goddard and Griffen from here without the same high ceiling as them?

Griffen

Pros: averaged 116 last year, huge ceiling at his best, high tackle numbers last couple of weeks, tough draw coming up meaning less likely to get tagged perhaps?
Cons: yet to show his best this year, will he get back to 2013 form? being tagged out of games too easily this year? Emergence of libba, macrae etc. stealing points?

Thanks heaps, very keen to know your thoughts regarding this debacle! This is potentially a season-saving or season-breaking decision I feel.
Hey Erich,
my order would be Barlow, Griffen, Goddard.
I think Barlow will wear the other 2 down with his consistency. Griffen will post a big score or two, mixed in with some disappointing ones, and Goddard will trend back towards the 108 area, His ceiling isn't that much better than Barlow's, and he only has 7 130+ scores in his last 72 games. In roughly the same amount of games, Barlow has 10 130+ scores. He has just shown more ability in the last few seasons to string together an extended set of scores that average over 110 than Goddard has. Griffen is very inconsistent, but we know he can go very big.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,132
Likes
64,898
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hey Rowsus,

Do you think Langdon is ripe for trading? A BE of 110 means now is the time to trade if I'm going to in the next couple of weeks.

He is my worst player still on the field so I'm thinking I will probably trade for either Hurn or Hanley. 14 trades left

Thanks heaps.
Hey Footy,
I think he has probably peaked, or close to peaked in price, so yes, he's ripe for milking.
Of the two, I think I prefer Hurn, though I really don't think there will be a lot between them.
Good luck :)
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,132
Likes
64,898
AFL Club
Melbourne
Gidday Rowsus,

Need a fwd replacement for Petrie. Please advise which of Buddy/Cloke/Zorko should be brought in, or any others in similar price bracket. Don't have the luxury of loopholing so need them on field. Am bringing in Tex this week too.

cheers...****
Hey ****,
I like Buddy, then Zorko, then a decent gap back to Cloke.
Good luck, I hope you can keep your good season going. :)
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,132
Likes
64,898
AFL Club
Melbourne
has Ben Cunnington finally arrived Rowsus? He is your man and I am after your thoughts on him from now. Coming off a 130 and priced under $500k.
The biggest problem I see, is that his TOG% hasn't increased. It's still hovering around 75%. That makes it really tough to score at an elite level. If you want him to score at 115/game, it means his pts/100%TOG has to be up around 153, and that's a level that usually only one or two players can reach in any given season. Most Mids run at about 84% TOG. To maintain a 115/game average they "only" need to score at 137/100% TOG, as you can see, that is quite a difference. I think he will post some more good scores this season, but I don't think he will truly arrive, until he can get that extra 10 minutes of on ground time regularly.
I think if I was going for a North player, I would go for Dal Santo, who is averaging 128 in winning teams this season, and North should be about to win a few games, with their draw opening up.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,132
Likes
64,898
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hey Rowsus,
Was having a look at the FTB thread and noticed Boomer Harvey is a bit of a FTB. With North having a dream draw coming up, do you think he could be an option. He is priced at 570K, but could average 115 for the rest of the year.
Cheers
Hay samma,
Boomer's definitely an option, but he is priced right up to his potential to score, if not just a little bit over. I would only pay the overs if it is your last or second last upgrade to complete your team.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,132
Likes
64,898
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hi Rowsus

What are your thoughts on Mark Lecras as an alternative to the popular choice of Zorko that people are bringing in? Has been scoring very well and priced at only $428k due to an injury affected 20, I think could be a positive POD and worth the risk at his price?

Thanks
Hi MrM,
I don't like him. His highest season average, in a season with more than 3 games is only 86.3. He has played 120 games and this is his ninth season. That would tend to indicate he has set his scoring level/pattern. That level is mid to high 80's. Yes, he may record a spike season, but backing players to record spikes is just too risky. I'd be looking elsewhere.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,132
Likes
64,898
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hi Rowsus, this is my first time I am in need of your expertise. I have hit a bump in the road. This bump's name is David Hale who is listed as having a quad injury. I have had him from day 1 and I can no longer persist with him anymore. He must go for me. Plans have now changed and I have a few options lined out but am not sure what to do:

[My original trade plans were]
Langford to Barlow (via Burgoyne to Def)
Ambrose to O'Brien (via Shenton to Fwd)

Alternate Options

OPTION 1
Langford to O'Brien (via dpp)
Hale to Tex Walker

This option would net me $378k. I would have Tex walker as F6. I see that his finals draw is lions, tigers, north & saints which helps for league. What do you think Tex can score from here on? The thing is though I would have to field either Shenton or O'Brien as a temporary M8 for one week. This would then allow me to bring in my final upgrade next week. I would be able to afford any midfielder at all even Rockliff or I can get Barlow and save $100k in the hope that I may be able to bring in Boomer/Gray at round 16 as an extra forward premium.

OPTION 2
Langford to O'Brien (via dpp)
Hale to Barlow (via dpp)

This option nets me $181k and allows me to stick to my original trade of bringing Barlow in at the expense of Hale instead of Ambrose. I would have to carry Shenton as F6 til at least rd 14.

OPTION 3
Langford to O'Brien (via dpp)
Hale to Dahlhaus

This option would net me 222k. This would completely fix my Forward line problems but I would not be able to bring in an M8 until at least rd14. Not sure Shenton/O'Brien can hold M8 for that long. Dahlhaus has a fairly good finals draw barring sydney in rd 22. What do you think he can average from now on?

OPTION 4
Langford to O'Brien (via dpp)
Hale to Gray/Boomer

This option would net me $144k. This would give my forward line a huge boost in terms of scoring potential but I feel like I'd be pay overs for Gray/Boomer. I would need to field Shenton/O'Brien as M8 til at least rd 15.

Sorry for the long list of options. It's just the first time this year that I have been so unsure of my trades. Hale has just really annoyed me. Please note I am running a bit low on trades. Thanks in advance Rowsus!
Hi Tamu,
you seem to be very keen on Langford out. Have you considered:
Tippett out, O'Brien in via Burgoyne to Def (+$68,400)
Hale to Walker (+$11,500)
This allows Langford to increase his value a little this week, and if need be, next week, when his 54 drops out of his pricing cycle. If he scores a 70 this week, he goes up about $10,100 and his B/E will be around 38. If he then scores 70 again next week he goes up another $14,100. That's $24,000 extra cash you get (potentially) by getting rid of deadwood Tippett instead of scoring Langford.
Of your options, I like option 2. It keeps your plan to get Barlow, and I don't see a huge problem with Shenton having to hold F6 for a few weeks.
Good luck :)
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,132
Likes
64,898
AFL Club
Melbourne
Going for my last Defender upgrade after some help.
1- I can trade Gardiner to Hanley and have Langford as bench cover for the year.
2- Trade Langford to one of these guys- Birchall or Shaw but will have Gardiner as back up. I just like to know who you think will ave the most out of them three guys.
I think Birchall might be the best of those 3, but I don't think there is a lot between them.
Good luck :)
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,132
Likes
64,898
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hi Rowsus.

In a shameless cash grab I am thinking of downgrading Darling. The players I am considering are Goodes and Tex. Do you have an opinion on this move? If yes, would you consider either of those two players and which one in particular strikes your fancy?

Cheers in advance! :)
Hi PC,
I think Darling to Tex seems like a suitable swap. If you don't like the result, at least Tex will increase in value. I don't like Goodes. He will get nursed to the finals, with the odd red vest, and maybe even get a Holiday late in the season.
Good luck :)
 

tracygrims

250 Games Club
Joined
17 Apr 2013
Messages
1,236
Likes
62
AFL Club
Richmond
Hi Rowsus,

Do I loophole Langdon and Hanley for the remainder of the season and downgrade Gunston to Tex Walker temporarily
or
upgrade Langdon to Hibberd and Gunston to Gray/Harvey and ignore the loopholes
 
Joined
18 Jun 2012
Messages
6,116
Likes
11,954
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hey Rowsus,

If you have some time I would appreciate your thoughts on a couple of options for this week. 12 trades before any this week and $350k in the bank

Option 1 (Go for Broke).

Lloyd to Franklin and Roughhead to Watson

This would leave Langdon (D5) and Langford (D6) as the remaining upgrades. (These were always my planned trades). This option only leaves $200 in bank.

Option 2

Lloyd to Shenton and Roughead to Watson

This would leave $220k in bank. I missed Shenton last week and although he has already gone up $70k, his job security and scoring capability is far superior to Lloyd. I'm also concerned with Cuter, Bews, Hallahan, Hunt, Lloyd, Cameron, Currie and Thurlow as my non starting rookies that cash generatuoin is a major problem. And Shention may be the last decend frorward eligible rookie to get.

Option 3

Lloyd to Franklin and Langdon to Malcheski

This option would mean Dangerfield would move into the M8 position (in the short term), Langford would be my only onfield Rookie. In the furture Higgins would be upgraded to a premium mid and Danger would be swung back to forward line. This would leave $33k in bank, with Langford and Higgins to be upgraded with 10 trades remaining.

Would apprecated your thoughts and any other potential options.

Thanks in Advance :):):)
 
Joined
11 Apr 2012
Messages
761
Likes
106
AFL Club
Richmond
Hi again Rowsus

I've got a similar question as last week when I contemplated trading Polec to K Mitchell. In the end I kept Polec over Higgins :( This week to avoid losing too much money with Polec and because culling a cow would expose me to a poor or non-playing D8/M10/F8 I was considering trading Polec down to Shenton. Then upgrade either Langford to Hibberd/Malceski/Hurn or for better def depth Cutler to Jaensch/Hanley/R Shaw. Only my Mids would then require one more upgrade to complete my team. What are your thoughts on this idea?

This is my team before trades and I only have $18k in the bank

B: Swallow, Simpson, Bartel, Suckling, Enright, Langford (Cutler, Bews)
M: GAJ, Pendles, JPK, Beams, J Selwood, Watson, Goddard, Polec (Taylor, Acres)
R: Sandi, Cox (Currie, King)
F: Danger, Harvey, Martin, Zorko, Gunston, Roughead (Ambrose, C Cameron)

Thanks in advance
 

Goodie's Guns

Leadership Group
Joined
21 May 2012
Messages
22,312
Likes
31,158
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Current Midfield: Ablett, Pendlebury, Beams, Selwood, Liberatore, Watson, Fyfe, Hallahan (Shenton,Arces)

Who should I be looking to get to complete my midfield?? :confused:

JPK is pricey but performing week-in-week-out, SJ becoming cheaper in the the coming weeks.
 

Tamuhawk

Leadership Group
Joined
4 Feb 2013
Messages
23,423
Likes
66,317
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Hi Tamu,
you seem to be very keen on Langford out. Have you considered:
Tippett out, O'Brien in via Burgoyne to Def (+$68,400)
Hale to Walker (+$11,500)
This allows Langford to increase his value a little this week, and if need be, next week, when his 54 drops out of his pricing cycle. If he scores a 70 this week, he goes up about $10,100 and his B/E will be around 38. If he then scores 70 again next week he goes up another $14,100. That's $24,000 extra cash you get (potentially) by getting rid of deadwood Tippett instead of scoring Langford.
Of your options, I like option 2. It keeps your plan to get Barlow, and I don't see a huge problem with Shenton having to hold F6 for a few weeks.
Good luck :)
Hey Rowsus
I had actually considered
Tippett out, O'Brien in via Burgoyne to Def (+$68,400)
Hale to Walker (+$11,500)
But thought it wouldn't be worth wasting a trade. But you have helped me see the upside and I get a bit of cover down back for a few weeks. I am actually more comfortable by doing that. I am no longer lost. You are brilliant Rowsus, thank you very much. :D
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top