Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Firstly thanks very much for your advise in the past, it has been much appreicated and it has helped me improve my ranking to 574, just short of the top 500 aim.

However I have managing to get my self in a bind.

A) I have Dangerfield currently in M8
B) I do not have Buddy and still have Higgins, which has really hampered my scoring of late.

I have come up with a couple of options for this week and would be interested iin your thoughts on how to best manage my situation. $70k and 8 trades before any this week.

Option 1

Shenton to S Martin
Higgins to Fyfe (or any mid under 551k) (moving Danger back forward)

Means Taylor is coverging mids/fwds and Martin is covering fwds/ruc's

Pros: Goes back to more traditional structure
Cons: I still dont have Franklin, have 6 trades left and only 3k in bank and still starting Langdon in D6 (with no cover)

Option 2

Shenton to S Martin
Higgins to Franklin

Also leaves around 80k to upgrade Langdon next week to best def possible and 5 trades for injuries.

Means Taylor is coverging mids/fwds and Martin is covering fwds/ruc's

Pros: Gets Franklin
Cons: Means Dangerfield would be stuck in M8 and probably would be for the rest of the year.

I would be very greatful for your thoughts and any other possible options

Cheers!!

Hi Deeman1,
your players on, or potentially approaching the chopping block, appear to be:
Langdon - ave 81.3 - $402,400 - B/E 87 - last 2 scores 74, 79 - next 2 opponents Haw, Carl
Shenton - ave 76.0 - $309,200 - B/E 50 - last 2 scores 63, 71 - next 2 opponents WC, Rich
Taylor - ave 58.0 - $313,900 - B/E 15 - last 2 scores 71, 101 - next 2 opponents Fre, Nth
Higgins - ave 81.1 - $415,900 - B/E 143 - last 2 scores 59, 46 - next 2 opponents Port, Melb
Given the 2 of those 4 most likely to lose value are Langdon and Higgins, have you considered Higgins ---> Martin, Langdon ---> Bartel?
It gives you another week to decide who your keeper might be out of Shenton/Taylor so you can trade the other out to bring Danger Down and possibly SJ or someone else in. It also possibly maximises the use/production of your money.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hi there Row, need some advise this week.
What do you think about these 2 trades for my team?
Jobe/Suckling >> Fyfe/Hanley

That will leave me with 4 trades ($146,000) and 1 final upgrade in the FWD whereby Parker will come in hopefully next week.
Team will look something like this:

Bartel, McVeigh, Simpson, Swallow, Hanley, Enright (Cutler/Bews)
Gaz, Pendles, Libba, Selwood, Sloane, Beams, Fyfe, Barlow (Shenton/Hartung)
Sandilands, Jacobs (Derickx, King)
Danger, Dusty, Zorko, Pav, Gunston, Governor (Ambrose/Cameron)

It means I miss out on Stefan Martin (replacement for Derickx) as my R3 but with so little trades left, don't think I have a choice.

Hi MMM,
they look good trades to me.
You could possibly go Derickx to Martin, and get Fyfe next week. The money made would more than compensate for Fyfe's price rise. I don't think I'd do it though. Derickx has played 11 out of 12 games, so gives you coverage. For all we know, Martin disappears in 4 or 5 weeks, when Leuey's back, and you have no coverage. I'd stick to your plan.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, What do you think of a Currie > S>Martin trade to cover/loop Cox using Max King? Only 5 oppurtunities to loop them and only once in Finals. More worried about Cox missing games then anything so I guess the real Question is is it worth Sideways trading Cox or better to get some cover for him?

Hey BigRuss,
wherever possible, cover is the better option. If you sideways Cox, you still face the fear that you will need coverage down the track, or the need to use another trade or face a donut. Currie to Martin seems like a good option.
Good luck

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rowsus,

Holding my ranking just but not having much luck with trades lately.
Watson previous week (injured) and now Hannebery this week. Two new recruits both getting injured.
Trades now becoming an issue with only 7 left.
Thinking maybe I should go:
Hannebery to Harvey and then Shenton/Ambrose (Not sure but Shenton has higher B/E) to S.Martin
Would leave me with 5 trades and Ruck coverage. Could place Harvey in the mids and play either Taylor or S. Martin as F6
Would leave 1 mid upgrade to do (by swinging Harvey back in fwd line) and $124K
Or
I could just bring in a Sloane/Ward/Jack/Treloar for Hannebery and Shenton/Ambrose for S.Martin and wait for last fwd upgrade.
Any thoughts or other suggestions would be much appreciated.
cheers

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus. I guess as the trades start to dry up you'll be able to get more sleep.
I have a general strategy question. I have spent all year looking for value. I now have 7 trades, $350,000 in the bank (not by design) and if I bring in Stefan Martin this week I could have more money. Do I still look for value or do I now just buy the best available regardless of price, rather than wait for their price to drop?

Hi freowho,
value is still of concern, but the value versus safety/points scale starts to slide towards the safety/points side of things as we get deeper into the season. I like to look at things in exaggerations. If you had 2 choices of players and one cost $600k and you were expecting him to return 112/game, and the other cost $500k and you were expecting him to return 108-110/game, while you've still got trades left, and the opportunity to create strong D7/M9/R3/F7's for coverage and loopholing, you take the $500k player. As your trades run out, you might take a "hang the expense" approach, but with 7 trades left, I'd still be a little value conscious, but trying to balance it with maximising my starting 22's scoring potential. Don't go over the top with value now though. There's little point in bring in a D6 that will score at 85 just because he's $350k, if you don't have the likes of Simpson/Bartel/McVeigh etc, obviously in that case it is false value, you'd be better to wait and bring in a bigger/better scorer. That sort of play is ok earlier in the season if you have a genuine hope he can fill a good D6. At this stage of the season we have a bit more information for assessing that sort of player than we do earlier in the season, and unless you are really confident, it's best not to be looking for that sort of bargain, when in the position you've described (more than a handful of trades, and a good fist full of dollars).
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Was thinking about bringing in Tom Hawkins to complete my forward line and was wondering what your thoughts were on him?
Has got a pretty easy draw coming up and seems to be scoring fairly consistently of recent weeks.

Hey Gee Gee,
I wouldn't horse around p) with Hawkins, unless you were desperate for a POD that might make your week maybe 2 or 3 times from here to the seasons end. His draw is actually not that important, and in fact it might be better if it was tougher! His good scores are:
118 v Collingwood in an 11 point win
148 v Hawthorn in a 19 point win
139 v North in a 20 point win
127 v Carlton in a 5 point win
117 v St Kilda in a 96 point win
The near common theme is closer games, and not so easy opponents, with the exception of the last score. You'd also be buying him at a Premium as his last 4 scores are: 139, 52, 127, 117 - it's dangerous getting him now, most of his good scores might be gone!
Good luck

 

[Bobbie]

Hey Rowsus

I have no idea what to do this week. I have 8 trades left and $104,900. My biggest concern is D6 so I need to generate enough cash to trade Cutler to Hanley (~$149K). I figure I have a couple of options:

Higgins > McGovern / S Martin.
Taylor > Honeychurch (if named) - but risky going early and Taylor is providing good coverage.

If I trade Higgins the incoming player needs to hold down F6 until I can upgrade them to a mid via Parker.

I'm a bit lost this week. Minimal cash in the bank is making it difficult to trade!

 

[Bobbie]

Edit - double post.

 

[WandP]

Hi Rowsus! So.. I've gone and done it. I've traded myself into a bit of a pickle with knee jerking Beams out for Libba. Plan WAS this week Hallahan and Taylor out for Fyfe and Morabito to complete my team (risky, I know!), but I'm finding myself an agonising $13k short.
With Taylor and Hallahan's respective breakevens under 20 and Fyfe's projected 96, the smart thing for me to do would be to hold for a week and complete the trade next week. Problem is, I can't see Hallahan playing next week, Taylor could quite easily be the sub and score 30 and I can also see Fyfe busting out a 130.
If these things eventuate, will I still make up the $13k or will I be further behind? Do you think I should pre-empt and maybe bring in Stefan for Derickx this week to make it more of a sure thing?

This may be cheeky to ask, but you wouldn't happen to have some sort of a handy break-even/price change calculator on Excel lying around so I can run some scenarios that you'd be willing to share?

Thanking in advance!

 

[whiteTiga2k]

Hi again Rowsus.

With trade running low... I was wondering if you think I should upgrade Polec to Kennedy leaving me with basically 3k left... OR bring in Fyfe and try to save up for Harvey (impey is my last forward upgrade)

I am struggling with trades... with only 6 left but I do want to complete my side. What do you think? I have Shenton in reserve... I guess if Fyfe pulled out I would still have him... but JPK is more consistent.


I'm so tempted to bring in Martin for Impey and have him stick around and hope he gets to 400+... do you see that as a possibility?

 

[Third-man up]

Hi Rowsus,
Have a question for you regarding trades.
What would you say would be the minimum amount of trades you should have for LTI?
Reason I say long term is I have very good cover in each line,
Langdon in defence,
Shenton/Langdon in midfield,
Martin in ruck,
Shenton/Martin in fwd line.
Team is about to be fully complete and want to know what would be the absolute minimum trades I should have remaining.
If for example a player is out for 2-3 I will cover/loophole with my emergencies, but if a player goes down like Watson did how many should I have left?

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Holding my ranking just but not having much luck with trades lately.
Watson previous week (injured) and now Hannebery this week. Two new recruits both getting injured.
Trades now becoming an issue with only 7 left.
Thinking maybe I should go:
Hannebery to Harvey and then Shenton/Ambrose (Not sure but Shenton has higher B/E) to S.Martin
Would leave me with 5 trades and Ruck coverage. Could place Harvey in the mids and play either Taylor or S. Martin as F6
Would leave 1 mid upgrade to do (by swinging Harvey back in fwd line) and $124K
Or
I could just bring in a Sloane/Ward/Jack/Treloar for Hannebery and Shenton/Ambrose for S.Martin and wait for last fwd upgrade.
Any thoughts or other suggestions would be much appreciated.
cheers

Hey Slammer,
poor luck you've had, but at least you have trades available to fix it!
I think you need to decide who the 2 players you really want are, and grab the one with the lowest B/E this week, and that's likely to Boomer.
As to the Shenton/Ambrose question, I'd use Ambrose. Shenton would appear to have better JS, and more potential for further growth than Ambrose.
Good luck

 

[Couch Coach]

Rowsus,

Will Swan, Cotchin, Delidio, or any other former premium mid under $500K come good this year?

I only have Swan, I'm worried by his output especially since Beams and Sidebum was out on the weekend and he still couldn't lift.

CC

 

[incog43]

hey CC, just to clarify, Swans output sucks no matter what.

Just another Swan owner

 

[incog43]

Rowsus, small problem up front, running Higgins/Petrie at F5/F6, this is not a pleasant
experience. I can cop Higgins, prolly average 80 but will be up and down, Petrie however
needs to burn in the hell of a thousand goats.

Really tempted to take Petrie up to whoever, will take 2 trades though.

More tempted to take Impey to Spina for the donut and DP option, then
take Ambrose to Zorko/Wingard, and just run a hail mary loop each week
between Higgins/Petrie, also good for coverage and have Shenton in the mids
to rotate as needed.

Or, light a candle for Petrie and pray for divine intervention and keep the trades?

Trades are getting thin, if I go this way will only have 3 or 4 left.

Couldnt give a toss about leagues, nice ti finish in the top 200 I reckon.



Thoughts?

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus

I have no idea what to do this week. I have 8 trades left and $104,900. My biggest concern is D6 so I need to generate enough cash to trade Cutler to Hanley (~$149K). I figure I have a couple of options:

Higgins > McGovern / S Martin.
Taylor > Honeychurch (if named) - but risky going early and Taylor is providing good coverage.

If I trade Higgins the incoming player needs to hold down F6 until I can upgrade them to a mid via Parker.

I'm a bit lost this week. Minimal cash in the bank is making it difficult to trade!

Hi Bobbie,
I think you have little choice but to go to McGovern. Given you want cheap points, plus potentially some dollars made, he looks the best option right now, even though you missed the bubble. It might be worth considering Litherland out instead of Cutler, too. Selection this week might help decide that of course.
Good luck

 

[Courtesans]

Hi Rowsus,
I wonder if Martin is worth it. Bringing in a 242k player at this stage of the season for cover. If one has Thurlow or another DPP R/F on the bench I can understand it, sort of, but otherwise not. What do you think?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus! So.. I've gone and done it. I've traded myself into a bit of a pickle with knee jerking Beams out for Libba. Plan WAS this week Hallahan and Taylor out for Fyfe and Morabito to complete my team (risky, I know!), but I'm finding myself an agonising $13k short.
With Taylor and Hallahan's respective breakevens under 20 and Fyfe's projected 96, the smart thing for me to do would be to hold for a week and complete the trade next week. Problem is, I can't see Hallahan playing next week, Taylor could quite easily be the sub and score 30 and I can also see Fyfe busting out a 130.
If these things eventuate, will I still make up the $13k or will I be further behind? Do you think I should pre-empt and maybe bring in Stefan for Derickx this week to make it more of a sure thing?

This may be cheeky to ask, but you wouldn't happen to have some sort of a handy break-even/price change calculator on Excel lying around so I can run some scenarios that you'd be willing to share?

Thanking in advance!

Hi WandP,
if Beams misses again this week, which is on the cards, your trade might appear inspired!
Given we are assuming Hallahan won't play, his and Morabito's prices don't change, so you need Taylor to increase by $13k more than Fyfe increases.
Taylor's B/E is listed as 15, and Fyfe's is listed as 90, and $13k represents about 30 points.
What all this means is, you need Taylor to get within: 90 - 15 - 30 = 45 points of Fyfe. To me, that is just under a toss of the coin situation. So if you want to be certain, then yes, you need to raise some dollars this week. Derickx to Martin is one option. Derickx has managed 11 out of 12 games, and while scoring low, he would seem to offer good JS for coverage. Martin has played well in 2 games, but will he hold his position more than one game after Leuey comes back? It leaves you potentially with no coverage late in the season, if he disappears. The other option to consider is Impey to McGovern. It doesn't raise as much cash, but might give some better options down the track.
Good luck

 

[WandP]

Rowsus, you are an absolute gentleman. Thanks so much for responding to mine, and the other 116 pages of questions. I would rep but a) my rep button has disappeared and b) the site would no doubt tell me that I need to share the love around before repping again.

Given your analysis, plan this week is to wait for Thursday and if both Hallahan and Taylor are named, reckon I'll hold (trades are VERY tight and I have another pre-planned trade in the coming month or so that I badly want to do). If only one of my rookies are named, I'll go the Stefan trade. Gut feel is that the Lions will put Leuey on ice for the year.

Thanks again mate!

 

[bloke]

Hey bloke,
I must admit, I'd be more concerned about Swan averaging 93 and Cotchin averaging 97 (they're averaging 85 and 92 in their last 5 games), than I would be about Taylor averaging 72 (68 in his last 5).
I think I'd be looking more at something like Petrie ---> Zorko/Rioli, Swan/Cotchin ---> Pendlebury.
Good luck

Cheers Rowsus. I kinda traded Taylor as a spur of the moment thing but will probably do the trades you suggested. Now just gotta decide which players to trade in and out out of those