Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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Pendlebury
Worst scores:
102 - Rnd 7 Carlton, 112 - Rnd 12 Melbourne, 113 - Rnd 11 St Kilda, 115 - Rnd 3 Geelong.
Best scores:
182 - Rnd 2 Sydney, 153 - Rnd 10 West Coast
Seriously, if you don't have Pendles, and you don't need to use Ablett for 1 replacement + a pocketful of cash for another upgrade/correction, then you just get Pendles. Lowest score this year 102, and 11 out of 15 scores 120+. Easy!
Worst scores:
102 - Rnd 7 Carlton, 112 - Rnd 12 Melbourne, 113 - Rnd 11 St Kilda, 115 - Rnd 3 Geelong.
Best scores:
182 - Rnd 2 Sydney, 153 - Rnd 10 West Coast
Seriously, if you don't have Pendles, and you don't need to use Ablett for 1 replacement + a pocketful of cash for another upgrade/correction, then you just get Pendles. Lowest score this year 102, and 11 out of 15 scores 120+. Easy!
G'day Rowsus,
I wanted to gauge your thoughts on bringing in Andrew Mackie as a direct swap for Tommy Langdon. I've got $476,000 in the kitty by going Ablett to Sloane and then offloading Langdon, so my options are really as follows:
Hodge, Hibberd, B Smith, Mackie, Burgoyne, Jaensch, Rance, Mitchell
Mtichell and Mackie are the two I'm considering at this stage. I think Mackie could be a really valuable PoD with a reasonable fixture (especially the next couple of weeks!), but at the same time Mitchell has been so solid in his SC career that he could easily get into the 100+ avg range. I'm not fussed about Mitchell's inevitable price drop, Langdon has to go in my books.
What are your thoughts on my dilemma? Cheers
I wanted to gauge your thoughts on bringing in Andrew Mackie as a direct swap for Tommy Langdon. I've got $476,000 in the kitty by going Ablett to Sloane and then offloading Langdon, so my options are really as follows:
Hodge, Hibberd, B Smith, Mackie, Burgoyne, Jaensch, Rance, Mitchell
Mtichell and Mackie are the two I'm considering at this stage. I think Mackie could be a really valuable PoD with a reasonable fixture (especially the next couple of weeks!), but at the same time Mitchell has been so solid in his SC career that he could easily get into the 100+ avg range. I'm not fussed about Mitchell's inevitable price drop, Langdon has to go in my books.
What are your thoughts on my dilemma? Cheers
Rockliff
Worst scores
74 - Rnd 13 GWS, 91 - Rnd 6 StK, 95 - Rnd 1 Haw
Best scores
182 - Rnd 11 Carl, 158 - Rnd 14 Fre, 155 - Rnd 3 GC
He's added a string to his bow this season, with being able to post bigger scores in losing games. The question becomes, can you take him even though he's out this week? The answer is yes! Let's assume you sit Shenton into M8 for this week, and he coughs up 60. Rocky comes in after that, and if he scores at his current rate, he adds 740 points in the last 6 games. That gives 800 points in the last 7 games from that spot on your field. That's a touch over 114/game. As you can see on the table, only 7 Mids are scoring at that rate anyway. So if you really like Rocky, and you're not in a must win League game, just get him anyway!
Worst scores
74 - Rnd 13 GWS, 91 - Rnd 6 StK, 95 - Rnd 1 Haw
Best scores
182 - Rnd 11 Carl, 158 - Rnd 14 Fre, 155 - Rnd 3 GC
He's added a string to his bow this season, with being able to post bigger scores in losing games. The question becomes, can you take him even though he's out this week? The answer is yes! Let's assume you sit Shenton into M8 for this week, and he coughs up 60. Rocky comes in after that, and if he scores at his current rate, he adds 740 points in the last 6 games. That gives 800 points in the last 7 games from that spot on your field. That's a touch over 114/game. As you can see on the table, only 7 Mids are scoring at that rate anyway. So if you really like Rocky, and you're not in a must win League game, just get him anyway!
Fyfe
Worst scores
76 - Rnd 11 WB, 104 - Rnd 9 Geel, 109 - Rnd 5 Syd, 109 - Rnd 12 Ade
Best scores
158 - Rnd 15 WC, 143 - Rnd 14 Bris, 141 - Rnd 8 Port
I think the best way to sum up Fyfe is this:
He has played 78 home and away games, and in that time he has scored 7,871 SC points at an average of 100.9.
At the same stage of their careers
Pendlebury had scored 7,400 SC points at an average of 94.9
Swan had played 16 games across 2 seasons before SC began. In his first 78 games where he was involved in SC (between his 17th and 94th home and away games) he scored 7,545 SC points at an average of 96.7
Barlow has played 76 home and away games, and scored 7,857 SC points at an average of 103.4
Selwood had scored 7,919 SC points at an average of 101.5.
Rockliff had scored 7,693 SC points at an average of 98.6
Ablett had played 52 home and away games when SC started, so it is not a fair comparisom.
You can see Fyfe is on a course to become SC elite. What makes him better than Barlow, is that appears to be improving!
Worst scores
76 - Rnd 11 WB, 104 - Rnd 9 Geel, 109 - Rnd 5 Syd, 109 - Rnd 12 Ade
Best scores
158 - Rnd 15 WC, 143 - Rnd 14 Bris, 141 - Rnd 8 Port
I think the best way to sum up Fyfe is this:
He has played 78 home and away games, and in that time he has scored 7,871 SC points at an average of 100.9.
At the same stage of their careers
Pendlebury had scored 7,400 SC points at an average of 94.9
Swan had played 16 games across 2 seasons before SC began. In his first 78 games where he was involved in SC (between his 17th and 94th home and away games) he scored 7,545 SC points at an average of 96.7
Barlow has played 76 home and away games, and scored 7,857 SC points at an average of 103.4
Selwood had scored 7,919 SC points at an average of 101.5.
Rockliff had scored 7,693 SC points at an average of 98.6
Ablett had played 52 home and away games when SC started, so it is not a fair comparisom.
You can see Fyfe is on a course to become SC elite. What makes him better than Barlow, is that appears to be improving!
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Kennedy JP
Worst scores
72 - Rnd 16 WC, 91 - Rnd 1 GWS, 105 - Rnd 6 Melb
Best scores
153 - Rnd 8 Haw, 151 - Rnd 9 Ess, 144 - Rnd 5 Fre
There's 2 ways to look at JPK. Last season he was underscored, or this season he's being overscored. His key stats are all similar this year, to last year, but this season he is averaging 118.4 compared to 105.4 last season. The reason I bring this is up is, if you think he is possibly slightly overscored this season, then there is a strong possibility for a correction in the final weeks. If you think he was possibly undercored last season, then this years figures look about right, and he's a live chance to keep them going. I think he might go 110-112 from here to the last game.
Worst scores
72 - Rnd 16 WC, 91 - Rnd 1 GWS, 105 - Rnd 6 Melb
Best scores
153 - Rnd 8 Haw, 151 - Rnd 9 Ess, 144 - Rnd 5 Fre
There's 2 ways to look at JPK. Last season he was underscored, or this season he's being overscored. His key stats are all similar this year, to last year, but this season he is averaging 118.4 compared to 105.4 last season. The reason I bring this is up is, if you think he is possibly slightly overscored this season, then there is a strong possibility for a correction in the final weeks. If you think he was possibly undercored last season, then this years figures look about right, and he's a live chance to keep them going. I think he might go 110-112 from here to the last game.
Beams D
Worst scores
86 - Rnd 16 GC, 92 - Rnd 14 Haw, 104 - Rnd 9 Ade
Best scores
145 - Rnd 4 Richmond, 136 - Rnd 1 Fre
Personally, if you don't have Beams, I would be avoiding him as an Ablett replacement. You might consider him if you still have 5 or 6 (or more) trades left, but outside of that, you would put him at at least a 50% chance of missing one or more games between now and the end. He's a soap bubble. Great to watch, but can disappear just like that. It also concerns me, that in the last 5 rounds he has had a missed game, and 4 of his worst 6 scores for the season!!! He's also only had one score greater than 125 since Rnd 4. There would seem to be better options out there, and if you didn't have him by now, you are better off backing against from here.
Worst scores
86 - Rnd 16 GC, 92 - Rnd 14 Haw, 104 - Rnd 9 Ade
Best scores
145 - Rnd 4 Richmond, 136 - Rnd 1 Fre
Personally, if you don't have Beams, I would be avoiding him as an Ablett replacement. You might consider him if you still have 5 or 6 (or more) trades left, but outside of that, you would put him at at least a 50% chance of missing one or more games between now and the end. He's a soap bubble. Great to watch, but can disappear just like that. It also concerns me, that in the last 5 rounds he has had a missed game, and 4 of his worst 6 scores for the season!!! He's also only had one score greater than 125 since Rnd 4. There would seem to be better options out there, and if you didn't have him by now, you are better off backing against from here.
Selwood J
Worst scores
82 - Rnd 6 Port, 83 - Rnd 5 Haw, 84 - Rnd 16 WB, 93 - Rnd 7 Rich, 98 - Rnd 11 Syd
Best scores
157 - Rnd 1 Ade, 140 - Rnd 2 Bris, 140 - Rnd 9 Fre
It was around this time last season, that Selwood took off and scored at a ridiculous rate. There seems to be a niggle hanging over his head this season, with weekly talk of him possibly being a late out. That's never a good sign. Only 2 125+ scores in his last 11 games is also a worry. If you like him, he'll probably be a POD as far as Ablett replacements go. He has 7 120+ scores this season, which is as good as anyone, outside of Ablett, Pendlebury and Ward. It's a no from me, but I can understand why some people will pick him.
Worst scores
82 - Rnd 6 Port, 83 - Rnd 5 Haw, 84 - Rnd 16 WB, 93 - Rnd 7 Rich, 98 - Rnd 11 Syd
Best scores
157 - Rnd 1 Ade, 140 - Rnd 2 Bris, 140 - Rnd 9 Fre
It was around this time last season, that Selwood took off and scored at a ridiculous rate. There seems to be a niggle hanging over his head this season, with weekly talk of him possibly being a late out. That's never a good sign. Only 2 125+ scores in his last 11 games is also a worry. If you like him, he'll probably be a POD as far as Ablett replacements go. He has 7 120+ scores this season, which is as good as anyone, outside of Ablett, Pendlebury and Ward. It's a no from me, but I can understand why some people will pick him.
Crouch B
I know he's down the bottom of the table, and only played 4 games this season, but he might fit a specific purpose for some players. Getting Crouch gives you nearly $220,000 in change from Ablett. If you are struggling to fill your team, and still have 2 or 3 Rookies or underperforming Midpricers filling positions in your team, Crouch is a live option. He has scored 98 and 122 since he came back from a LTI. Last season he "only" averaged 87 in his debut season. His last 6 games last season had 4 100+ scores and averaged 99.3. He's not for the high-flyers, but those struggling a little, and also looking for a POD, could do worse than go to Crouch, and find another upgrade with the loose change. I would add another rider, I would only do it if you also have Pendlebury or 2 other relatively safe Captain picks in your team already.
I know he's down the bottom of the table, and only played 4 games this season, but he might fit a specific purpose for some players. Getting Crouch gives you nearly $220,000 in change from Ablett. If you are struggling to fill your team, and still have 2 or 3 Rookies or underperforming Midpricers filling positions in your team, Crouch is a live option. He has scored 98 and 122 since he came back from a LTI. Last season he "only" averaged 87 in his debut season. His last 6 games last season had 4 100+ scores and averaged 99.3. He's not for the high-flyers, but those struggling a little, and also looking for a POD, could do worse than go to Crouch, and find another upgrade with the loose change. I would add another rider, I would only do it if you also have Pendlebury or 2 other relatively safe Captain picks in your team already.
Ward
Worst scores
48 - Rnd 4 WB (injury), 92 - Rnd 5 Ade, 93 - Rnd 16 Ade
Best scores
145 - Rnd 7 Port, 142 - Rnd 11 Haw
There's definitely a Mumford/Ward correlation. Allowing a bit for the injury affected round 4 score, Ward averages around 10/game higher when Mumford plays. Let's break Down the figures in 2 more ways though, looking only at the 10 games Mumford and Ward have played together (admittedly a small sample pool). 4 of those 10 games were wins. Ward playing with Mummy in wins ave 4/125.5, Ward playing with Mummy in loses ave 6/115.8. Ward playing with Mummy, when Mummy has 45 or more hitouts, 5/127.4, when Mummy has less than 45 hitouts 5/112.0. So let's combine the win/loss stats, with the 45+/- hitout stats:
Win/Mummy 45+ 3/126.7
Win/Mummy 44- 1/122.2
Loss/Mummy 45+ 2/128.5
Loss/Mummy 44- 4/109.5
45 hitouts is a lot to achieve in a game! Yes, Mummy has done it 5 out of 10 games this season, but keep in mind the leading Rucks usually average high 30's. I would back there being more Loss/Mummy 44- games to come, than there is of the other 3 scenarios. That being the case, I think Ward might average 110-112 from here. Useful, but is it the best you can do? Probably not, but maybe!
Worst scores
48 - Rnd 4 WB (injury), 92 - Rnd 5 Ade, 93 - Rnd 16 Ade
Best scores
145 - Rnd 7 Port, 142 - Rnd 11 Haw
There's definitely a Mumford/Ward correlation. Allowing a bit for the injury affected round 4 score, Ward averages around 10/game higher when Mumford plays. Let's break Down the figures in 2 more ways though, looking only at the 10 games Mumford and Ward have played together (admittedly a small sample pool). 4 of those 10 games were wins. Ward playing with Mummy in wins ave 4/125.5, Ward playing with Mummy in loses ave 6/115.8. Ward playing with Mummy, when Mummy has 45 or more hitouts, 5/127.4, when Mummy has less than 45 hitouts 5/112.0. So let's combine the win/loss stats, with the 45+/- hitout stats:
Win/Mummy 45+ 3/126.7
Win/Mummy 44- 1/122.2
Loss/Mummy 45+ 2/128.5
Loss/Mummy 44- 4/109.5
45 hitouts is a lot to achieve in a game! Yes, Mummy has done it 5 out of 10 games this season, but keep in mind the leading Rucks usually average high 30's. I would back there being more Loss/Mummy 44- games to come, than there is of the other 3 scenarios. That being the case, I think Ward might average 110-112 from here. Useful, but is it the best you can do? Probably not, but maybe!
Liberatore
Worst scores
65 - Rnd 15 Melb, 76 - Rnd 5 Carl, 79 - Rnd 1 WC, 82 - Rnd 4 GWS, 93 - Rnd 14 Port, 96 - Rnd 6 Ade
Best scores
171 - Rnd 8 Melb, 154 - Rnd 3 Rich, 142 - Rnd 13 Coll.
Libba is averaging 114 this season. Griffen has missed 2 games this season, and Libba scored only 65 and 79 in those 2 games. 2 of his 3 worst scores for the season. He also scored a 93 when Griffen played a 28%TOG in Rnd 14. So when Griffen has played "full" games this season, Libba has averaged 122.8! That could be a problem. How much faith do you have in Griffen fronting up each week? Last season Libba averaged 86.5 in the 2 games Griffen missed and 108.9 when Griffen played (season average 106.8). It really could be that simple!
Worst scores
65 - Rnd 15 Melb, 76 - Rnd 5 Carl, 79 - Rnd 1 WC, 82 - Rnd 4 GWS, 93 - Rnd 14 Port, 96 - Rnd 6 Ade
Best scores
171 - Rnd 8 Melb, 154 - Rnd 3 Rich, 142 - Rnd 13 Coll.
Libba is averaging 114 this season. Griffen has missed 2 games this season, and Libba scored only 65 and 79 in those 2 games. 2 of his 3 worst scores for the season. He also scored a 93 when Griffen played a 28%TOG in Rnd 14. So when Griffen has played "full" games this season, Libba has averaged 122.8! That could be a problem. How much faith do you have in Griffen fronting up each week? Last season Libba averaged 86.5 in the 2 games Griffen missed and 108.9 when Griffen played (season average 106.8). It really could be that simple!
Hi RB,
obviously we have an answer on the first bit now. As to the last bit, I don't have any stats to support the affect on scoring one way or the other with injuries like that. I think a lot of it comes down to the individual, and how well they recover. Some shoulders never come good again, and pop out at the drop of a hat. Other can be nearly as good as new. Given his age, I would have thought it might have affected him to some degree, but I guess (hope?) we'll never know!
obviously we have an answer on the first bit now. As to the last bit, I don't have any stats to support the affect on scoring one way or the other with injuries like that. I think a lot of it comes down to the individual, and how well they recover. Some shoulders never come good again, and pop out at the drop of a hat. Other can be nearly as good as new. Given his age, I would have thought it might have affected him to some degree, but I guess (hope?) we'll never know!
Hi Rowsus
Planning on going Dal Santo at this stage to take his consistency and durability in games played over the years and combining it with North's easy draw and bit of a POD as I have no trades left so I need something to go my way.
Do we have a prediction on him as a slightly left-field replacement?
Planning on going Dal Santo at this stage to take his consistency and durability in games played over the years and combining it with North's easy draw and bit of a POD as I have no trades left so I need something to go my way.
Do we have a prediction on him as a slightly left-field replacement?
Hi Rowsus
I've got to a point with my team where I'm not sure what to do next so I was wondering if you could hit the my Team button and review it for me. Currently I plan to trade GAJ to SJ to maximise cash which will then leave me 4 trades and $273400 in the bank. I feel the main problem I have with my team is the lack of bench depth in both defence and rucks compounded by the fact that in defence my so called premos of Simspon, Suckling and Enright are stinking it up. My thought is to use the cash to upgrade Bews to Mitchell in a week or two once his price has fallen. The plan for the rucks would then be if Sandi gets rested then he just gets traded to the best I can afford.
Problem is I keep getting this irrational urge to instead trade McGovern to Parker which improves my fwd line greatly but leaves too much cash on the bench and still no quality cover in defence... but I want him!
Does anyone else get these stupid urges to do these types or trades instead of the ones you know you should do?
What do you think my next move should be?
Thanks
Jekyll and minidee
I've got to a point with my team where I'm not sure what to do next so I was wondering if you could hit the my Team button and review it for me. Currently I plan to trade GAJ to SJ to maximise cash which will then leave me 4 trades and $273400 in the bank. I feel the main problem I have with my team is the lack of bench depth in both defence and rucks compounded by the fact that in defence my so called premos of Simspon, Suckling and Enright are stinking it up. My thought is to use the cash to upgrade Bews to Mitchell in a week or two once his price has fallen. The plan for the rucks would then be if Sandi gets rested then he just gets traded to the best I can afford.
Problem is I keep getting this irrational urge to instead trade McGovern to Parker which improves my fwd line greatly but leaves too much cash on the bench and still no quality cover in defence... but I want him!
Does anyone else get these stupid urges to do these types or trades instead of the ones you know you should do?
What do you think my next move should be?
Thanks
Jekyll and minidee
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