Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus.

Just wondering why you would pick Gray over Parker? And how would you compare Boomer to these 2 after a price drop next week? (assuming he doesn't score 172!!!)

Hi freowho,
before last week Gray was averaging 5.5/game higher than Parker. While their roles within their teams can be seen as similar, I actually prefer Grays role, which just to my eye has more on ball time than Parker. Parker seems more like a 95 - 110 player (last weeks score not withstanding) where as Gray seems more likely to go 110+ or even 120+ than Parker. Gray has had 2 scores in recent time that seemed to be low for what he actually did, while Parkers 150 last week seemed a nudge or 2 high, for what he actually did. I think it is quite conceivable, if the luck went the other way, that Gray could be sitting on as much as 10/game higher than Parker. Apart from the obvious injury history, he just looks more "likely" to me.
As to Boomer, he's in a different price bracket, as you point out. I just feel he may have given us all of his BIG scores this season, or at best has one left in him. He doesn't score between 100 - 119 often, compared to the number of 120+'s he has. The problem is, he's had 6 120+ scores already this year, and that's highest number for 6 years. Given his age, scoring patterns, and history, I think I'd rather go for a player on the up in Gray. Even if their prices were matched, I think I'd lean to Gray. Yes, he's breaking into new territory, but he's within the breakout zone to do it. Harvey is already scoring at his highest level since 2008, and second highest level ever. All that would say a correction to his scoring should not be entirely unexpected.

 

[Rowsus]

Gidday Rowsus, possibly last trade question for the year but perhaps the most important.

Gaj and Hibberd have forced my hand in using 2 of my last 4 trades this week. Reason being I play 2nd this week in my league and am 1 game and tiny bit of percentage ahead. I'd say his team looks stronger on paper but he has the rockliff hurdle this week although he may choose to field miles in his place.

Anyway, I'm thinking these 2 trades allow me a shot at winning this week and in turn, barring a catastrophe, winning the league. Ablett to SJ and Bews to H Taylor. Means I keep hibberd and can loophole defence with decent coverage for the year. Have Shenton as m/f cover and Honeychurch and then a decent f7 in wingard, also the ability to loophole my forwards when the crows don't play Friday night.

Is this plan sound or am I silly in keeping hibberd and paying so much for Taylor, who I used to have. I'll have 9k in the bank and 2 trades to cover any ltis. Love yr feedback if poss!

Thanks again!

Hi ****,
it sounds like a decent plan. I would consider Murphy R as well as Taylor. Similar scorers, but if there is a minor Premier prize, and a Premiership prize, Murphy might be of better use in 2 of the last 3 games.
Good luck this week!

 

[Rowsus]

Gday Rowsus, who would you settle for out of Liberatore or Dal Santo?
I don't like the dependency on Griffen playing for Libba's scores to be good and not sure of Griffen's back injury flaring up again over the next seven rounds. However if all is ok Libba should outscore NDS, right?
Or is the reliance on Griffen playing too much of a risk to pick Libba?

EDIT having just seen your RAMP post, maybe I should be considering Barlow or K.Jack?! mmm... allready have Pendles, Selwood, Fyfe, Sloane...(was thinking didn't want both Fyfe and Barlow) and to be honest wasn't considering K.Jack at all.

Gday braider,
keep in mind, the Libba/Griffen stat while convincing on face value, is on a small sample pool. I can understand you not wanting to put all your eggs in Ross Lyons basket, and to be honest, there probably isn't a lot between any of those players you mentioned as possibilities. Given the right, or wrong luck, anyone of them could go 100 higher, or lower, than the other 3. If you are looking to win the GF this year, potentially Libba and Jack have better draws for the SC finals, though Dals isn't horrible either.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

I was just wandering about your thoughts on Prestia?? With Gary out do you think his scores will rise or fall. Tossing up between him and Fyfe as a replacement for Gary

He's an interesting one. Realistically, he has his chances to score, and takes them well often, whether Ablett is there or not. I can't see his scores raising significantly, but there is the potential for a drop, through the implied extra attention. I think overall, it will be close to the same as it is now, with maybe a slight drop. I think I'd prefer Fyfe.
Good luck

 

[Deeman1]

Hey Rowsus,

Sorry to bother you again, but I messed up my trades bad last week. I think this is likely to be my last roll of the dice.

5 trades, 218k in bank.

A

GAJ to JPK and Shenton to Sloane/Barlow and next week Birchall to Mitchell.

B

GAJ to SJ and Birchall to Bartel and next week Shenton to JPK/ Sloane.

Really want to do A, but I think B would possibly generate the biggest points gain.

What are your thoughts?

Thanks heaps in advance.

 

[expl0it]

Hi Rowsus.

Only 5 trades left and $65k in the bank. Would it be best to maximise the cash by trading out Gaz to SJ? If I do that, I can upgrade McGovern to Robbie Gray and I relatively have a complete team. I think I may have to settle with Suckling at D6 and Cunnington at M8, maybe upgrading Cunnington to JPK in a few weeks.

However, been tossing up several options on whether to bring cash or upgrade as I am low on trades:

Option 1:
Gaz to SJ
McGovern to Honeychurch. Gives me $457,600

Option 2:
Gaz to SJ
McGovern to Robbie Gray. Leaves me with $44k.

Option 3:
Hold off on trading Gaz for next week
Shenton to Honeychurch
McGovern to Gray. Leaves me with $88k

 

[minidee]

Hi minidee,
yes, we all get those irrational urges.
You see someone not giving you want you want/need, and you want to fix it! I think you are best served by resisting those urges for now. As you pointed out, there are other areas that need your attention more. Your SJ and Mitchell plans look both good, and sensible. If you "waste" a trade on Parker, and more Gaz type disaster hit, you are in trouble. Stick to your guns, as much as you'd like Parker.
Good luck.

Thanks for the sage advice Rowsus but since then the teams have dropped and Hibberd is still not named. With Bews and Z Jones also not named it means I'm eating a back line doughnut this week. I can wait till final teams on Saturday to see if Bews is a late in again this week but if he isn't I might have to go early on Mitchell. Catch is I fall $10k short after trading GAJ to SJ. What do you think then of trading A Swallow in for GAJ to then afford the Bews/Jones to Mitchell?

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Row,

I have a couple options this week im not sure what to do. The big issue is i only have 2 trades remaining, no midfield bench cover and Ablett, Rocky and Treloar out this week. Im just going for league wins.

So option 1 is to just make the one Ablett trade and take two 0's and lose the round but keep 1 trade left.

Option 2 is trade Gaz and Treloar for 2 of Fyfe, Sloane, Libba etc and only take the one 0 and still give myself a chance but leaves me no trades.

Option 3 is trade Gaz and Treloar for one mid, push Danger into the mids and get Gray so i have a DPP link set up. Again this leaves me no trades.

Do another of these or an option 4 appeal to you?

Thanks mate!

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

RAMP says:
Pendles 878
J Selwood 813
JPK 800
Barlow 797
Jack K 785
Fyfe 781
Prestia 775
Sloane 763

Very interesting to note that RAMP does not think Rocky will be top 8 from this point on

 

[blue dreamer]

Very interesting to note that RAMP does not think Rocky will be top 8 from this point on

Could just be because he is missing this week.

 

[JMAC]

Hi Rowsus, do you think K. Jack is a good buy? Has his role changed (that you know of)? Cheers!

Contemplating trading in Jack for Ablett and then McGovern to any 500k back or forward. If I trade Parker in for Ablett instead of Jack, I have both forward and defense links in the midfield, allowing for great flexibility.

So do I go Jack (is he a bargain?), Parker (allowing for great flexibility) or a JPK (get an elite scorer in a straight swap)?

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Sorry to bother you again, but I messed up my trades bad last week. I think this is likely to be my last roll of the dice.

5 trades, 218k in bank.

A

GAJ to JPK and Shenton to Sloane/Barlow and next week Birchall to Mitchell.

B

GAJ to SJ and Birchall to Bartel and next week Shenton to JPK/ Sloane.

Really want to do A, but I think B would possibly generate the biggest points gain.

What are your thoughts?

Thanks heaps in advance.

I do like Bartel more than Mitchell, so I agree that B probably brings in more points than A. Only probably, so if you like A, maybe you should go that way. The satisfaction of doing the one you want, and it working out, outweighs the disappointment of doing the one you "thought" you should, and it failing. There probably isn't a lot in it. The other thing to factor in is, that SJ is way more likely to tank it from here than JPK, so while B probably brings more ponts, through the advantage of Bartel over Mitchell, A might be the safer option, that is least likely to disappoint. All Things considered, there's nó high degree of probability on B being the better choice, so why not do A anyway.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus.

Only 5 trades left and $65k in the bank. Would it be best to maximise the cash by trading out Gaz to SJ? If I do that, I can upgrade McGovern to Robbie Gray and I relatively have a complete team. I think I may have to settle with Suckling at D6 and Cunnington at M8, maybe upgrading Cunnington to JPK in a few weeks.

However, been tossing up several options on whether to bring cash or upgrade as I am low on trades:

Option 1:
Gaz to SJ
McGovern to Honeychurch. Gives me $457,600

Option 2:
Gaz to SJ
McGovern to Robbie Gray. Leaves me with $44k.

Option 3:
Hold off on trading Gaz for next week
Shenton to Honeychurch
McGovern to Gray. Leaves me with $88k

Hi expl0it,
I don't like option 1. Bringing Honeychurch into your Fwd line means you'd have to another Fwd Rookie later in the season, if you wanted Shenton out, and Honeychurch up to keep your DPP link.
Option 2 is viable, it gives you a complete team, and 3 trades for back up.
Option 3 is also viable, depending on who you are targetting for Ablett next week. If it is Rocky, then this is the perfect option for you.
If you don't have your heart set on Rocky, I would go option 2. Your Mid cover is probably better served short term with Shenton than Honeychurch, as I believe he has better JS. You could then wait a few weeks, and turn Shenton into a cheap M/F link, and upgrade Kersten to provide stronger cover in your M/F area.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks for the sage advice Rowsus but since then the teams have dropped and Hibberd is still not named. With Bews and Z Jones also not named it means I'm eating a back line doughnut this week. I can wait till final teams on Saturday to see if Bews is a late in again this week but if he isn't I might have to go early on Mitchell. Catch is I fall $10k short after trading GAJ to SJ. What do you think then of trading A Swallow in for GAJ to then afford the Bews/Jones to Mitchell?

Hibberd is causing problems for me, too. I guess you need to ask yourself this question. If Bews was named, you'd probably only expect him to score 50 points, and you'd still take SJ. Do you expect SJ to outscore Swallow by over the 50 points this weeks potential donut will cost you? If the answer is yes, you might be better off just eating the donut this week, and taking SJ. If you have an important League match, this may not be an option.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,

I have a couple options this week im not sure what to do. The big issue is i only have 2 trades remaining, no midfield bench cover and Ablett, Rocky and Treloar out this week. Im just going for league wins.

So option 1 is to just make the one Ablett trade and take two 0's and lose the round but keep 1 trade left.

Option 2 is trade Gaz and Treloar for 2 of Fyfe, Sloane, Libba etc and only take the one 0 and still give myself a chance but leaves me no trades.

Option 3 is trade Gaz and Treloar for one mid, push Danger into the mids and get Gray so i have a DPP link set up. Again this leaves me no trades.

Do another of these or an option 4 appeal to you?

Thanks mate!

Hey Mike,
I guess it comes down to, is this a must win match-up for you? If not, you are better off eating 2 donuts, and saving a trade. Chances are, if it's just a match you'd like to win, you'll lose it anyway, and you have comitted all your trades to it. If you are going to commit all your trades, I like option 3. With having Spina that will give you the best options going Fwd, my vote is option 1 though, depending on circumtances in your League.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Very interesting to note that RAMP does not think Rocky will be top 8 from this point on

Could just be because he is missing this week.

It would appear to put him under quite a disadvantage!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, do you think K. Jack is a good buy? Has his role changed (that you know of)? Cheers!

Contemplating trading in Jack for Ablett and then McGovern to any 500k back or forward. If I trade Parker in for Ablett instead of Jack, I have both forward and defense links in the midfield, allowing for great flexibility.

So do I go Jack (is he a bargain?), Parker (allowing for great flexibility) or a JPK (get an elite scorer in a straight swap)?

Hi JMAC,
Keep in mind, if you take Parker and you have no other link, he only provides coverage for the other DPP links in your Fwd line, and vice versa. There is more flexibilty and coverage in a DPP link that isn't required to play each week. Jack is definitely an option. I don't think his role has changed, as Sydney tend to rotate roles for the most part anyway. If you really could use that extra $500k player, then go Jack, otherwise, just take the best scorer you don't already have.
Good luck

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Mike,
I guess it comes down to, is this a must win match-up for you? If not, you are better off eating 2 donuts, and saving a trade. Chances are, if it's just a match you'd like to win, you'll lose it anyway, and you have comitted all your trades to it. If you are going to commit all your trades, I like option 3. With having Spina that will give you the best options going Fwd, my vote is option 1 though, depending on circumtances in your League.
Good luck

Thanks Row. Im in the top 4 in all my leagues so its not a must win but more id like to win to stay up there. I think option 1 might be the smarter move then.

I really do want Fyfe but im concerned he will miss a game or be vested. For this reason im leaning to Sloane instead. May not score as high but he is as consistent as it gets.

 

[freowho]

Hi freowho,
before last week Gray was averaging 5.5/game higher than Parker. While their roles within their teams can be seen as similar, I actually prefer Grays role, which just to my eye has more on ball time than Parker. Parker seems more like a 95 - 110 player (last weeks score not withstanding) where as Gray seems more likely to go 110+ or even 120+ than Parker. Gray has had 2 scores in recent time that seemed to be low for what he actually did, while Parkers 150 last week seemed a nudge or 2 high, for what he actually did. I think it is quite conceivable, if the luck went the other way, that Gray could be sitting on as much as 10/game higher than Parker. Apart from the obvious injury history, he just looks more "likely" to me.
As to Boomer, he's in a different price bracket, as you point out. I just feel he may have given us all of his BIG scores this season, or at best has one left in him. He doesn't score between 100 - 119 often, compared to the number of 120+'s he has. The problem is, he's had 6 120+ scores already this year, and that's highest number for 6 years. Given his age, scoring patterns, and history, I think I'd rather go for a player on the up in Gray. Even if their prices were matched, I think I'd lean to Gray. Yes, he's breaking into new territory, but he's within the breakout zone to do it. Harvey is already scoring at his highest level since 2008, and second highest level ever. All that would say a correction to his scoring should not be entirely unexpected.

Awesome work again Rowsus. Gray is quite a but cheaper than Harvey as well. I notice you've been using this years stats in your trade tables for a few weeks rather than predictive information from previous years, although you still refer to previous years to balance the data. Just wondering at what point do you think the current data outweighs previous data or is there a bit of gut feel. There seems to be a grey area in the middle of the year where you are either picking up a premium who is about to turn around their form or you are picking up a premium who is just having a terrible year.

 

[Rowsus]

Awesome work again Rowsus. Gray is quite a but cheaper than Harvey as well. I notice you've been using this years stats in your trade tables for a few weeks rather than predictive information from previous years, although you still refer to previous years to balance the data. Just wondering at what point do you think the current data outweighs previous data or is there a bit of gut feel. There seems to be a grey area in the middle of the year where you are either picking up a premium who is about to turn around their form or you are picking up a premium who is just having a terrible year.

Thanks freo,
I don't use any specific cut off point in the current season, to say this season now takes precedent. I try and keep my reference to 2 seasons, as anything older than that can be a bit misleading, as circumstances/gameplans/roles change so much. It's probably around now, I start to drop off the 2012 info a little bit, and concentrate more on 2013/2014. The table I did for the Ablett replacement obviously wasn't a true "Trade Table", more a simple summary of each player's season so far. That grey area you refer to definitely exists. To me, that is one of the areas that seperates the good SC Coaches from the rest. They are better at identifying which of the underperforming Prems can bounce back, and which ones are just having a bad season. They're not always right, but right more often than player like me!