Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, when I see people post about teams with "soft draws" I tend to think that coaches tend to give more midfield time to their 2nd tier players thus depriving the elite p[layers the possibility of getting huge scores when they come up against bottom sides especially GWS. Would you have any data to confirm or deny this theory of mine. I need to trade wisely and get the best value for my gaj trade, so want the player who would score the most points between now and the end. I would have gone rocky but thats out so my other options are fyfe/barlow (may be rested) jpk ( a bit down last week) a swallow/harvey (good draw).

I have 4 trades left and was planning gaj to elite premium
shenton to s mitchell
langdon to k simpson

smartin/ambrose to best I cn afford at the time. if s martin plays the season out then he would be f7

having the cash to do these trades and who my final f6 is depends on how much change I get from the gaj trade. apart from the elite options I could go further down to say sj would give me the cash to fulfill my trade plans.

Hey doc, there is something to your theory, but I wouldn't get weighed down on it too much. Looking at the 2012/2013 season, only one of the better Midfielders had a more than 10% drop in his average when playing Melb/GWS/GC (the "easybeats" of those 2 seasons). That was Pendlebury! In 5 games against those 3 teams he averaged 112, where the other 35 games he played averaged out at 127. It really comes down to the individual, and the team structure. The bottom-line is, I wouldn't avoid a player because of their perceived easy draw, but I might think twice before assuming they're a good C selection that week.
As to your Ablett dilemma, if getting an SJ will facilitate making those other improvements, then it's not your worst choice. I honestly believe one, or both, of SJ and Selwood will score very well from here. Selwood has only averaged 105 since Rnd 4, and SJ 92 since the bye. They're both too good for that to continue! The only watch I'd put on your trading plans is K Simpson. Obviously you are backing him to bounce back. He's only averaged 71 in his last 5 games, with one score over 85.
Good luck

 

[Sidd]

Hi Rowsus
My team is currently
Def = Swallow, Bartel, Malceski, Burgoyne, Hibbert, H.Taylor (Cutler, Bews)
Mid = Ablett, Pendles, JPK, Selwood, Libba, Beams, Fyfe, Murphy (M.Crouch 266k, Acres)
Ruck = Sandi, Minson (Thurlow, King)
Fwd = Danger, Dusty, Zorko, Franklin, Tex, S.Martin (Cameron, Kersten)

6 trades left 193k in the kitty.

Obviously Ablett needs to go. But with so many options available at this stage my trades are uncertain. My FWDs are probably my weak point as Tex was a mistake I think. I would like to hear what you think about Honeychurch V J.Martin V Morabito as a downgrade for M.Crouch, although Crouch could be pushing for a selection soon?
I think Cameron will get another gig soon?
Need to get either Booma, Gray or Parker into my FWDs badly although not sure which one.
Not sure I need any more cash cows more likely wanting coverage for the year.
Not fussed about overall score just want the best team coming into SC finals!

What would you do in my scenario?

 

[Rowsus]

Waiting on Ablett as everyone is. I just thought I would ask another question of you.

If Gary is out for over 5-6 weeks... I will be looking to get rid of him.

Do you think that having an option where Sam Mitchell (for Shenton in 2-3weeks time) is on my midfield Bench is a waste of money? I just don't think litherland is a good cover.
Would it be a silly move to downgrade Gary to Parker? so that I get midfield and forward line cover too as well as backline? Impey doesn't look like good cover either...


Initially my first thought is Gary Ablett to JPK in 1-2 weeks time... so that I can get him when he is cheap. But I have so many ideas in my head now. With only 3 trades left... I'm kind of stuck. My last trade I somehow plan to get Brent Harvey in... either for SMartin or Pavlich

Hi Rowsus

In your wise opinion, should I take the punt and downgrade Gary Ablett to a Luke Parker this week to give me money (and an extra M/F) to go for an upgrade of Martin/Pavlich to Harvey later on in the year?

Or

Should I play Shenton/Impey for 2 weeks and pick up JPK when his price drops... which will hopefully make me 120k or so from JPK's price drop?

One more question Rowsus, sorry about bombarding you with questions.

Do you think Pavlich is a keeper? or should I look at upgrading him to Harvey/Parker?

Hi wT2k,
first, the easy bit of advice. With only 3 trades left, and one of those used on Gaz, you can't afford to be planning/looking at sideways trades like Pav. There's still a long way to go yet, and each of those trades are worth their weight in gold! (what does a trade weigh, anyway?)
The problem with getting Parker, is he only really provides relief for half your starting Fwd line. He won't help if Buddy, Pav or Martin goes missing, or gets called up to Ruck. I think for the moment you just take the best Mid you think from here for Ablett, and just sit on your last 2 trades for now. I would be looking at JPK, Ward or even Sloane if you want someone different. While your coverage is thin, I wouldn't commit to any area yet with your last 2 trades. I'd just wait and see where they are best used.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

With Ablett gone, I need to trade him out. I was wondering if you think I could use H Taylor to cover the donut caused by bringing in my ideal option, Rockliff. Or should I instead get JPK or Ward (not sure which one)?

I think if you like Rocky that much, I'd just cop the Taylor score for this week, and bring in Rocky next week.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

So I was thinking and tinkering around with my squad and I think I've reached the point where I feel comfortable with such a trade:

Gaz/McGovern >> NDS/Petrie or Wingard

The cash generated from downgrading the Master to NDS will give me enough funds to upgrade my F7.
I would be missing out on potential monster scores from Rocky/JPK but I think my current MID (with NDS in there) should hold up just fine.
That would give me adequate cover through MID and FWD as I would be able to swing Shenton and one of Zorko/Dusty/Danger/Parker around, thus bringing my F7 into play when needed.
Will then be left with 2 trades, possibly for Mitchell and for a rainy day.
Thoughts Row?

Hey MMM,
it seems like a decent plan to me. I'd go for it.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

I have a few things in mind, only 4 trades and 210k.

Can straight swap Gaz for Libba or Fyfe.

Also thinking straight swap to Parker.

OR lol

Gaz to Libba/Fyfe and Ambrose to Parker. That would push S.Martin to F7.

Or downgrade Currie to Thurlow opening a link. Trade Ambrose to Parker and play him in the MID for one week then next week gaz to rocky.

Ill have stuff all trades but if I at least bring Thurlow in I have Martin as Ruck/FWD cover and honeychurch in the mids to play around a bit.

I actually like the idea of Gaz to Fyfe, and Ambrose to Parker (though I'd choose Gray!).
I'd hold off on committing a trade to open a R/F link. Pushing Martin to M7 is ok for now, but if/when Leuey gets back, we need to know what happens to Martin. It would be a shame to commit to that trade, and find it was wasted.
Good luck

 

[freowho]

I actually like the idea of Gaz to Fyfe, and Ambrose to Parker (though I'd choose Gray!).
I'd hold off on committing a trade to open a R/F link. Pushing Martin to M7 is ok for now, but if/when Leuey gets back, we need to know what happens to Martin. It would be a shame to commit to that trade, and find it was wasted.
Good luck

Hi Rowsus.

Just wondering why you would pick Gray over Parker? And how would you compare Boomer to these 2 after a price drop next week? (assuming he doesn't score 172!!!)

 

[dicksilverman]

Gidday Rowsus, possibly last trade question for the year but perhaps the most important.

Gaj and Hibberd have forced my hand in using 2 of my last 4 trades this week. Reason being I play 2nd this week in my league and am 1 game and tiny bit of percentage ahead. I'd say his team looks stronger on paper but he has the rockliff hurdle this week although he may choose to field miles in his place.

Anyway, I'm thinking these 2 trades allow me a shot at winning this week and in turn, barring a catastrophe, winning the league. Ablett to SJ and Bews to H Taylor. Means I keep hibberd and can loophole defence with decent coverage for the year. Have Shenton as m/f cover and Honeychurch and then a decent f7 in wingard, also the ability to loophole my forwards when the crows don't play Friday night.

Is this plan sound or am I silly in keeping hibberd and paying so much for Taylor, who I used to have. I'll have 9k in the bank and 2 trades to cover any ltis. Love yr feedback if poss!

Thanks again!

 

[Rowsus]

Kind of a similar question, would you rather trade Ablett to Libba who will score well and has a good run (already have Pendles, Fyfe), or downgrade Ablett to Parker which will let me swing with my forward line? Currently my mid bench is O rourke and Acres who are unlikely to play, while my forward bench has Honeychurch and Kersten. And do you think Libba will outscore most from here? Thanks mate

Your team isn't horribly set up, though you could use some Def cover. Keep in mind, that it appears Libba is dependent on Griffen playing. Also, if you take Parker for Ablett it means you likely have to start Swan. That might be good this week, given his record against Essendon, but in general, you might prefer to loophole him from M9. Libba's a good choice if you have faith in Griffen, otherwise JPK, Sloane or even Rocky next week, if your match up is hanging on the edge this week.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Who does RAMP have being the top 8 mids from this point of the year. Of course excluding GAJ. Thanks

RAMP says:
Pendles 878
J Selwood 813
JPK 800
Barlow 797
Jack K 785
Fyfe 781
Prestia 775
Sloane 763

 

[Braider]

Gday Rowsus, who would you settle for out of Liberatore or Dal Santo?
I don't like the dependency on Griffen playing for Libba's scores to be good and not sure of Griffen's back injury flaring up again over the next seven rounds. However if all is ok Libba should outscore NDS, right?
Or is the reliance on Griffen playing too much of a risk to pick Libba?

EDIT having just seen your RAMP post, maybe I should be considering Barlow or K.Jack?! mmm... allready have Pendles, Selwood, Fyfe, Sloane...(was thinking didn't want both Fyfe and Barlow) and to be honest wasn't considering K.Jack at all.

 

[Rowsus]

G'day Rowsus,

I wanted to gauge your thoughts on bringing in Andrew Mackie as a direct swap for Tommy Langdon. I've got $476,000 in the kitty by going Ablett to Sloane and then offloading Langdon, so my options are really as follows:

Hodge, Hibberd, B Smith, Mackie, Burgoyne, Jaensch, Rance, Mitchell

Mtichell and Mackie are the two I'm considering at this stage. I think Mackie could be a really valuable PoD with a reasonable fixture (especially the next couple of weeks!), but at the same time Mitchell has been so solid in his SC career that he could easily get into the 100+ avg range. I'm not fussed about Mitchell's inevitable price drop, Langdon has to go in my books.

What are your thoughts on my dilemma? Cheers

G'day camo,
I don't think I'd let Mackie's last 4 games seduce you. He's a career long 80-85 player, and I can't see any reason that'll change now. Mitchell's a much better pick. I think I'd have Hodge, Henderson, Burgoyne or Walker A, before I had Mackie.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Row,

One trade left, might as well use it this week, Gaz to Ward or Sloane?

Waddaya reckon?

Other option is to get a mid/def for extra cover eg. Swallow, Hanley?

Cheers

Hi Juzzo,
go with Ward or Sloane. The idea of a Swallow or Hanley only provides cover if McVeigh or Bartel is out. That being the case, you may as well just grab what points you can. I prefer Sloane in front of Ward, but there is next to nothing in it.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Absolutely brilliant Rowsus and much thanks. The analysis and commentary here is better than any article in any other forum or media outlet on the issue.

Thanks Yasi,
personally I'm not satisfied with the quantity or depth of the analysis I've managed this season. I was hoping for more, but my time got eaten on other commitments. Hopefully in the pre-season I give people something to think about!

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus,

Do you see Andrew Swallow pushing into the 110+ average for the rest of the year?

Thank you in advance.

CC

CC,
I think that might be a bit high for him, and I'm also hoping it is a bit high for him. I like the idea of starting him at M5/6 next season priced at 95ish. I think he might be more in 100-105 area for the rest of the season.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

What happens in finals when two teams draw?

The higher placed team goes through correct?

Correct

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Planning on going Dal Santo at this stage to take his consistency and durability in games played over the years and combining it with North's easy draw and bit of a POD as I have no trades left so I need something to go my way.

Do we have a prediction on him as a slightly left-field replacement?

Hi JT23,
RAMP has him scoring 750 points from here, and I think that's in the right ballpark. He's certainly some sort of chance to push that number 30 to 50 higher, so he's not the worst pick you could make!
Good luck

 

[Dalla]

I was just wandering about your thoughts on Prestia?? With Gary out do you think his scores will rise or fall. Tossing up between him and Fyfe as a replacement for Gary

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

I've got to a point with my team where I'm not sure what to do next so I was wondering if you could hit the my Team button and review it for me. Currently I plan to trade GAJ to SJ to maximise cash which will then leave me 4 trades and $273400 in the bank. I feel the main problem I have with my team is the lack of bench depth in both defence and rucks compounded by the fact that in defence my so called premos of Simspon, Suckling and Enright are stinking it up. My thought is to use the cash to upgrade Bews to Mitchell in a week or two once his price has fallen. The plan for the rucks would then be if Sandi gets rested then he just gets traded to the best I can afford.

Problem is I keep getting this irrational urge to instead trade McGovern to Parker which improves my fwd line greatly but leaves too much cash on the bench and still no quality cover in defence... but I want him!
Does anyone else get these stupid urges to do these types or trades instead of the ones you know you should do?

What do you think my next move should be?

Thanks

Jekyll and minidee

Hi minidee,
yes, we all get those irrational urges.
You see someone not giving you want you want/need, and you want to fix it! I think you are best served by resisting those urges for now. As you pointed out, there are other areas that need your attention more. Your SJ and Mitchell plans look both good, and sensible. If you "waste" a trade on Parker, and more Gaz type disaster hit, you are in trouble. Stick to your guns, as much as you'd like Parker.
Good luck.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus
My team is currently
Def = Swallow, Bartel, Malceski, Burgoyne, Hibbert, H.Taylor (Cutler, Bews)
Mid = Ablett, Pendles, JPK, Selwood, Libba, Beams, Fyfe, Murphy (M.Crouch 266k, Acres)
Ruck = Sandi, Minson (Thurlow, King)
Fwd = Danger, Dusty, Zorko, Franklin, Tex, S.Martin (Cameron, Kersten)

6 trades left 193k in the kitty.

Obviously Ablett needs to go. But with so many options available at this stage my trades are uncertain. My FWDs are probably my weak point as Tex was a mistake I think. I would like to hear what you think about Honeychurch V J.Martin V Morabito as a downgrade for M.Crouch, although Crouch could be pushing for a selection soon?
I think Cameron will get another gig soon?
Need to get either Booma, Gray or Parker into my FWDs badly although not sure which one.
Not sure I need any more cash cows more likely wanting coverage for the year.
Not fussed about overall score just want the best team coming into SC finals!

What would you do in my scenario?

Hi Sidd,
given you don't really expect these Guys to take the field for you, and the other 2 have serious injury question marks over them, I'd go Honeychurch. His DPP seals the deal. I'd put Ablett down to SJ. You have most of the other candidates, and the extra Cash SJ gives you can replace a Cash Cow.
Good luck